Raw transcript — Frontier Labs Want to Slow Down, OpenAI Delays Its 2026 IPO, Anthropic Flags 5 Bioweapon Cases

Daria Amade, CEO of Anthropic, published a 3,800word essay titled, "We must pace the frontier." Three hours later, Sam Elon said, "You're right." Monday, President Trump called it a hoax, and China called it a cold war trick. >> Nothing less than a clumsy decapitation attempt against the takeoff itself. >> Sam Alman told Fortune that open eye will not go public in 2026. He told Reuters even a 10% extinction risk would be unacceptable. I think this is pure theater. You don't want to IPO now, blame safety. You want world government, blame safety. The dog ate my homework and the safety ate my IPO. >> Enthropic released its September threat intelligence report documenting real malicious use of claude. Five cases involving activity that could support biological weapons development. The bio red line that every lab said it wants to stay below. Enthropic has said we can't promise that we haven't crossed it. The fact that it's happening just on the eve of this summit is not I think an accident. >> Let's be clear about one thing. There is

[00:01:01] going to be AI regulation. >> Now that's a moonshot. Ladies and gentlemen, >> this episode is brought to you by the Abundance Summit and Link Ventures. >> Welcome to Moonshots everyone, your number one podcast in all things AI and exponential. And this week, you're seated at the table where the future of the entire industry just got renegotiated in the past 72 hours. On Saturday, Dario Ammedday said, "Slow down." Three hours later, Sam Elon said, "You're right." Monday, President Trump called it a hoax, and China called it a cold war trick. That's the last few days. Buckle up. It's never going to be slower than it is today. Let me introduce you to my extraordinary moonshot mates, the fantastic 4 this week, AWG, Alex Weezner Gross, the only man alive who reads a 3,800 AI policy essay and says needs more math. Uh Dave Dave Blondon, who just watched every VC

[00:02:00] on Sand Hill Road discover the word moonshot and who's been funding them all along at Link Ventures the whole time. Silly Miss M. Warlord against linear thinking. And this week, apparently an avid accelerationist promoting Pab over Poom. Sound right, Sem? >> Sounds about right. We've got some alternatives I'd like to bounce out, get your guys' viewpoints on it. >> All right, that's great. >> That'll be fun. >> Immad is out this episode, but we'll have him back soon. Immod, we miss you already. I'm Peter Demandis, your host and abundance provocator, frantically working a 36-hour day just to keep up with what's happened over the last week. Our mission on Moonshots is as always to help you understand what just happened, what it means for you, and to keep you abundance-minded during the decade ahead. If you haven't subscribed yet, please do. Two episodes a week, and this week, honestly, uh we could have done five episodes. Um I I want to take a second, as I've done before, take a

[00:03:00] moment to say thank you to our subscribers. You know, there are a few quotes that I loved from Medical Mandalorian. the only show I find myself compul compulsively checking from new episodes. Thank you for documenting the singularity and keeping us all optimistic and informed. From ZMW000093, how I've missed this channel for so long, I have no idea. Without question, this is the best place to really contemplate where AI is actually going. And from Monday's episode, brou, uh, who's got 248 likes on this one, he says, quote, I can't wait for when progress starts to move. so fast and the mates are going to have to be live 24/7. Careful for what? Careful for what you wish for. And finally, >> our avatars will do that. I don't know. >> I think that's about it, right? That's the dematerialization of this podcast. And at Taylor Lux says, quote, "I don't know why, but this show makes me stop everything I'm doing and start watching immediately. I don't fang girl about

[00:04:01] celebrities, but I would definitely freak out if I got a chance to meet you guys in person." Well, Taylor, come to Moonshots Live next week on the 25th and freak out in person. All right, that means a lot to us, guys. You know, our mission here is to reach 10 million subscribers. Why not have a 100x growth objective, right? And at GW Winston 6532 said it best, "It blows my mind that only a few hundred,000 people watch this every week. Everyone needs to be watching." All right, so share it with everyone. Today we're going to cover the insanity that took place over the last five days. Uh try and lay out what it means in a meaningful fashion, understandable fashion. Probably a little bit of a debate amongst the mates here. Uh and guys, uh you know, I've been glued to the conversations. I don't know about you guys. Where are you today, by the way? >> Uh actually was over. Go ahead. >> I should start with you. Where where are you today, Selene? >> I'm in Miami today. I'm getting on a

[00:05:00] flight to India tonight. I'll be in India for two three days and then back. >> Uh India for two three days. Okay. >> Any particular reason? Just India for the sake of India? >> We're launching in India. It's beautiful. >> No, we're launching the organizational singularity uh out there. So >> amazing. >> I'll be doing the launch event and a couple of other talks. >> And and Dave, what about yourself? >> Uh I'm at Stanford. Actually was at Google all day yesterday. And uh yeah, Peter, you said we have a few hundred thousand listeners. They're definitely the right listeners. Almost everybody at the summit was coming up to me saying I listen to it every single time. So uh and uh a lot going on in feeds and speeds. You know the beer ruben chips are coming out. Uh there was a company posetron that has an inference time accelerator that's really crazy. Spent a lot of time with cerebrus and Andrew Feldman who's phenomenal. We did a panel together and you know his inference time speed it's everything we predicted at the beginning of the year. Things are going to accelerate like crazy. It's starting to happen literally right now and nobody quite knows what that means. You know, as the AI gets bigger and

[00:06:00] bigger and bigger, it always gets smarter, but it's difficult to predict the impact of that. So, that's why there's so much going on in politics this week because >> it's called. It's called the singularity for a reason. And uh and AWG virtual background or real background? >> This is real. Unfortunately, I'm at SFO with Dave. I was at Google for the past two days about to fly back to Boston. >> All right. Well, if some fans come racing by, have them have them wave in the background. >> We'll do. >> All right. Uh, let's open with the most consequential AI policy essay of 2026. Saturday morning, Daria Amade, CEO of Anthropic, published a 3,800word essay titled, "We must pace the frontier." His argument, "The industry must deliberately slow the pace of capability advancement so that safety work can keep up." Quick context on why this matters. This is not a pause AI letter from outsiders, right? This is the CEO of a company about to go public for $2

[00:07:01] trillion and the company that just shift shift Fable 5.1 and honestly one of the top two most powerful executives on the planet. Dario says that two things changed his mind. First, recursive self-improvement, in his words, quote, starting to happen across the industry, including at Anthropic. Second, the summer's containment failures with open AAI hugging face swarm that we covered proved that you know safety measures don't hold at this pace. So um his core claim and let me quote from his essay, we must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models. Progress will still seem fast and we must make wise use of the time we gain. He continues, "It's my worry that in 6 to 12 months, much of a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage." A next quote from Daryl who says,

[00:08:01] "Pacing does not mean halting model training or technically or halting technical progress, but ensuring companies take adequate time to align the safeguards of their models and for third-party evaluators to confirm this. Um let's get into this. He offers three steps uh you know unilaterally giving third party evaluators permanent employee level access so that they can evaluate what's going on. Second a critical mass of US labs adopt the same standards enabling verified pacing through legislation or a narrow antitrust waiver. and third international coordination for escalating le levels banning bioweapon use which he thinks is feasible uh and at the end other end to a full pause which he thinks is not reasonable you know uh I'll I'll go to you know to Alex on you this for you on this first at the same time I'm going to show the slides of Altman Hassabis and Elon's tweet uh

[00:09:03] accepting this as you know something that all we all need to So, Alex, what's your take on the essay? >> Yeah, I'll give you my unburnished hot take. I think what we saw this weekend and in the few days that followed may have been nothing less than a clumsy decapitation attempt against the takeoff itself. And I emphasize clumsy. So, I I think it's I think at this point, knowing what I know and knowing what's been publicly reported, it's probably impossible to consider Daario's essay in isolation. So, consider the following sequence of events. events may or may not have started with Jacob Coxin whom we spoke about on previous episode doing his public rage quit. Maybe to get attention, maybe not. But either way, a public rage quit pointing at safety issues. Then we get to the foreign state actors which has now been reported from various venues amplified Jacob's resignation letter ostensibly for obvious nation state competition reasons

[00:10:01] possibly slash probably to decelerate American super intelligence. Then, as far as I can tell, it seems like Daario takes the bait and Daario and anthropic. Again, this has been widely reported. There's a a broad alignment between anthropic and effective altruism. He takes the date and publishes an essay pushing a very EAish agenda to decelerate. Then the other lab leads, who we now know were already in discussions for weeks prior to Daario's essay with Anthropic about forming what I've publicly characterized as a cartel, amplify the discussion. They all tweet, "We agree with Daario. Let's do this." And then the mainstream media then jump in further and they amplify it because this sounds scary and everyone's going to die. and and they amplify it on an otherwise relatively slow news weekend. So to put it simply, spoiler alert, if you've read Agatha Christiey's Murder on

[00:11:01] the Orient Express, it turns out that everyone did it for different reasons, but everyone was the murderer here. Everyone did it. They're all pushing different agendas. Jacob wants attention, it seems. The foreign state actors who are amplifying it want to decelerate American super intelligence. Daario is pushing effective altruism. The other lab leads would love to get inspectors looking at Anthropic's codebase and they want to better compete with Anthropic. The mainstream media want to publish if it leads it leads. And so we end up with this really bizarre weekend. That that's my summary. >> Wow. So an orchestrated behindthecene coordinated effort. >> Safety cartel. I mean, I coined this term safety cartel over the weekend the moment I saw Daario's essay and then our friend uh at at I guess our our cousin Pod David Saxs immediately runs with it and starts calling this a proposed cartel. It escalates to the White House and the White House takes the position no cartels. We're not going to to grant

[00:12:00] lenience to uh anthropic or open AI if they're looking for some sort of liability waiver from the White House for products that they release or models that they release that wreck havoc on the internet. They should look elsewhere. The Congress that the speaker of the house issues a similar dictim, no, don't look to Congress for some sort of waiver of liability from defective models that you're releasing. So, you know, hopefully this pod uh and the implication, which I think is accurate, that what we saw was nothing less than an attempt to form a safety cartel, which I defined as a coalition of dominant firms that invokes safety to justify coordinated limits on the pace or terms of competition. I think we hopefully headed that one off at the pass. So, you know, the one point I'll make, Alex, and you and I texted about this, um, and you might want to mute with the background, but, uh, is that the Frontier Labs desperately need some kind of regulation to survive, right? If they're out there saying, "This is

[00:13:00] dangerous. We're going to see these things escape. They could cause hundreds of billions of dollars of damage." And then if the agents actually do escape and cause havoc in a banking system or a power grid, then the labs are potentially liable. I mean, in courts around the world saying you knew this could happen and yet you released the new, you know, Astro 6.1 anyway, uh, we're suing you for a billion dollars a thousand times over and it's a trillion dollars of liability without coverage. But if there's a regulatory structure that gives them an approval for release and the liability turns to the regulators versus to the companies, that avoids this existential risk. Do you buy that? Now, Daario's original notion was a race to the top, not a race to the bottom. And then he, I think, in in recent times has abandoned the notion of a race to the top. Race to alignment. I've argued on this pod in the past that alignment equals capabilities. And for whatever

[00:14:00] reason, I think at least Anthropic and Open AAI who are still, if not a duopoly, they're they're the two leaders right now in terms of capabilities need to return to this idea that again under the covers, if you're maximizing alignment, you are also maximizing capability. And I'd love to see them competing to be the most aligned, not looking for government blessing. I tweeted that out saying I don't understand why the conversation isn't let's point 10,000 100 thousand a million agents at alignment versus anything else. Right? I mean that should be if we have if we have super intelligence at the line with humanity that's amazing and that should be objective. >> I'll I'll just by analogy let's say we're on the verge of developing cities. Let's say rewind a few million years or a few thousand years depending on how how you measure the the shift from say the agricultural revolution to the post-aggricultural state. You find ourselves in a world if we buy this Daario essay where the argument would go

[00:15:00] let's not form any cities because cities are dangerous and we can't control what's going to happen in cities. Let's stay as agrarian civilizations or even hunter gatherers because who knows what could happen. the mob the the the merchant effects from having lots of people densely concentrated in one place will be uncontrollable and that's precisely the wrong response. The right response is let's invent police forces. Let's do defensive co-caling. Let's use the benefits of concentration of intelligence to our benefit rather than just being scared of it and forming cartels to avoid forming for cities in the first place. >> All right, let's bring Dave and Slim in the conversation. Dave, your thoughts? Yeah, I was surprised that they didn't loop in the White House a little bit better prior to the paper. Um, you know, because David Sach's reaction to it was just absolutely over the top and they got a very and there's nothing productive about the negative reaction coming back from the White House. But what surprised me antitrust law is no joke. You know, like I think anytime that you have very very powerful tech

[00:16:00] CEOs all working on competing products meeting at all, that triggers antitrust right away. And so David's reaction was, "Hey, you guys don't need a waiver from the government. If you want to slow down, slow down." And that's exactly what he tweeted. But I think Daario's point was more like, "No, we saw what you did to Microsoft or the federal government many years ago did to Microsoft. We know that antitrust law is very serious and purely the act of us colluding on any kind of a safety package is enough to trigger antitrust. We want a waiver." Now, that could be read in two different ways, right? One of them which I believe is look, we know we need government involvement immediately. We know that regulation is going to lag terribly behind AI capability. You've got to be part of this. You know, White House, get involved. Uh but our fundamental motivation here is purely the safety of humanity. Or you could read it the other way, which is we're trying to form a regulatory capture cartel that controls AI for the whole future. We all know Xi Jinping is coming next week and this is

[00:17:02] our attempt to to do what Biden was actually already going to do. Already told Mark Andre he was going to do limit AI to just four or five big companies and then we can regulate those and then we don't have to worry about leakage. We don't have to worry about startups. Mark Andre thought it was the worst thing he'd ever heard in his life and tried to prevent Biden from doing it. Didn't matter because the election went the other way. But I think the reason they stepped on a landmine is because we have right now the most antitrust friendly administration in my lifetime by far. And I actually have a company right now that I sold last week that's in antitrust, you know, processed right now. And it's just the smoothest it's been in my entire lifetime. So I think by by asking for antitrust waiverss, they stepped on a huge landmine in terms of the administration saying, "What are you talking about? You're asking completely the wrong administration. we're so antitrust friendly. This is insane. So, so it it's kind of, you know, disappointing that they didn't just call each other first and say,

[00:18:02] "Look, this is our purpose here. Tell us what your reaction is going to be. Why don't we coordinate this a little bit?" But, uh, anyway, it it worked out the way it worked out. Made makes a huge amount of drama. I guess, you know, everybody in politics likes drama, creates news. You know, news is always good for the incumbents. So, that's the way it played out. >> See, I'm going to play this video and I'd love your response to it. This is Dario addressing fears. >> Do you believe earnestly believe that AI could kill all humans? And and what percent chance do you think it is? >> I agree with Jacob much more than I disagree with him. You know, he wasn't calling out us. He was calling out the dynamic of the the industry as a whole moving too fast. Now, now I I you know, I I I think I already said, you know, these sort of unconditional probabilities. You know, I used to kind of talk in that way because it's kind of an easy way to express I think there's some chance that things go wrong, but it's not it's not all that high. You're >> right. We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models. Progress will seem fast and we must make wise use of the time we gain. And there's three parts to this. One is embedded evaluators. Part two is

[00:19:00] democratic coordination. Part three is global coordination. Essentially you are suggesting observers inside your company and these other AI companies ideally globally but certainly in the US who would monitor it. They would have employee access. What power would they have? >> Yeah. Embedded evaluators. So there is precedent for this. Um if you look at how banks are regulated right there there's all kinds of rules about you know how banks are allowed to do their business right because you know we don't want to have financial crisis and one of the things that are done in some cases is I think they're called supervisors in the financial industry but they're they're folks who are independent of a company who are embedded in the company daytoday to check their practices. I think we can do the same thing in AI. The other thing you were calling for in this three-part proposal is is democratic coordination which is essentially democracy all the companies that are under democracies having these evaluators having this coordination and probably the most important because the argument is well if the US or companies are the only ones regulating themselves what about does China get ahead you're calling for global coordination that's obviously a lot more difficult >> yes yes I you know in this three-step

[00:20:01] proposal each step is more difficult than than the one before and anthropic was kind of getting the ball rolling by committing to the first step but we shouldn't kid ourselves that these next two steps are going to be more difficult and and we may not succeed and and so my my proposal was a proposal that we should try. So yes, pacing among dem companies and democratic countries. Now the one of the important things that that I need to call for here is you know as we get to the pace of model releases, right? That's commercial activity and in order for companies to coordinate directly on commercial activity, they need to do so working with the government. And so the one thing that we're asking for from government right now, right? I mean there's also this question of what should the regulations be? But there's something even simpler that the government can do right now, which is it can sit down in the room and with all the industry players and we can all talk together and the government can make sure that we're not doing anything nefarious from the perspective of antitrust and collusion. We're just trying to make our system safe and to work together on making the system safe.

[00:21:01] >> All right. Um See, you know, Sam Alman writes next. I agree with Daario. We need to pace it. You know, then Demis comes out saying he agrees. Here's his tweet. And then Elon, Daario is right. We'll talk a little bit more about Elon's proposal in a minute, but uh what's your take on all this, Lim? How's this come across to you? Is he authentic? >> Well, I think he's authentic, but I called BS and I'm very cynical of the whole thing. As I mentioned on the last podcast, if you spend years hiring the best people, pulling them together to achieve AGI, ASI, whatever we call it, and then as you get close to it, you go, "Oh my god, the world may end. I'm I'm sorry. Where was the plan? You if you were smart people, you knew this was happening. Where was this beforehand? This could have this conversation could have happened years ago." In fact, let's note that as early as GPT2, Yam Lun, I said and think said the this most accurately. He said, uh, note that they

[00:22:01] were calling about worldending AI when GPT2 came out. Right? So, this is a trope that keeps getting rolled out calling for slowdown. I don't understand, and maybe Dave can break this down a bit, how this affects the S1. How do you do an S1 in the middle of all of this chaos? The only thing and I'm putting on full cynic hat here is that maybe they're seeing slowdown in revenue growth and because of the open models and that is causing them to go oh my god we better call for a public slowdown because we can't really justify this in any other way and our valuation will get trashed in the public. So that's my most cynical view. uh at the most generous you would say this is the most naive thing you've ever seen because you've been building these labs forever and now you're calling for everybody freak out. How you get to the idea that uh AI can meaningfully um uh destroy all of humanity is incredibly irresponsible unless you lay out exactly the steps by which that might happen.

[00:23:01] >> Uh and so I I really get upset with a lot of this. >> Yeah. I'm going to play two clips of Elon from our friends at the all-in uh summit and uh and let's talk about it. It was, you know, of all the proposals I've heard that could work, Elon's where the different frontier labs are cross-checking peer-to-peer, their safety one >> seems like the most useful. So, let's take a take a look at these two videos and let's discuss them. >> Do you mean Daario is right about describing the potential harm? He's right about describing the regulatory solve both the first the latter just can you help us understand when you said that because I think it was sort of a a moment where every I probably should right I I did try to clarify it in subsequent post on X but uh those get much less attention. So what what I what I was right is that that the the the danger of AI is very significant at this point that we we we need to do better with AI safety or or we have exponentially increasing risk

[00:24:00] with the AI models. And I've heard this not just from Dario but from many other people at Anthropic that when a lot of people from Anthropic and and from OpenAI um are telling you that their models are very dangerous, I think we should believe them. It certainly is like some some crazy 4D chess to say these there's what a 10% chance of annihilating humanity. But by the way, um how much allocation would you like in our IPO? >> Yes. >> All right. I I'm curious, guys. Do you not believe Elon when he says that this is getting very dangerous um and that we really need to slow down when all of them are saying this? >> Well, you got to you got to consider the alternative. If you're if you're running a company, going public, running a company, raising capital, three out of four say this is dangerous and you say, "What do you mean? There's no risk at all. What's going to happen next?" Right? Everybody on the planet is going to say, "You must be lying. You're just in it for the money." So, you have no choice

[00:25:00] but to go along with it. It's funny enough though, China is the one saying exactly. China is the one saying, "What do you There's no risk at all. We're going to go take our open source to bricks, you know, so it'll be in Brazil, Russia, India, and China and South Africa, India where Salem will be in a couple hours or in a day. Um, and they're all going to say, "Yeah, we want AI, too. We love this Chinese message. We hate that American message that it's all dangerous and going to get locked down. We like the Chinese message that we're going to have equal access to it and we can catch up to you guys." And so, uh, they're going to love that and they're going to wrangle the whole world behind that behind that message. But you can't be a CEO of a profitable company and say, "Yeah, everyone else is saying it's risky, but I'm going to get out there and say, "No, no, no. Everybody chill out. There's no risk at all." So, I don't think any of them even have that option. It would backfire so badly. >> Elon is Elon is pushing his own agenda, and I I think it's pretty transparent. And the agenda I I suspect includes the

[00:26:00] fact that Elon's now an infrastructure provider. And Elon's Grock or I should say SpaceX AI's Grock is itself this is publicly reported information. It it descends from reasoning traces that were distilled ultimately from claude interactions visav cursor. So, I'm sure Elon would love nothing more than for SpaceX AI to be able to audit and/or provide harness benchmarks for safety or otherwise for OpenAI and Anthropic. That would be such a boon for SpaceX AAI's ability to remain at the frontier. And in his mind, maybe there's a safety benefit, but it comes with all of these collateral side effects of helping to prop up SpaceX AI's frontier status. >> All right. Uh, >> it's easily fixable, by the I mean, I think all they're calling for at this stage, stage one, is independent review of each other's models through APIs, but you could easily do that in clean rooms and say, "Look, you can't take any of the traces out. You can't take any of the prompts out, but you can hammer it, you know, with any test suite you want

[00:27:01] within this clean room, and that would resolve that problem." So, that would get to the, you know, are you really just trying to spy on each other or are you really concerned about debugging each other's risks before they go to the public? arguo. Even in the case of a clean room, the the real I think risk that we run is forming a safety cartel where through this indirect form of collusion, the clean room, said clean room forms the basis for collusion on common benchmarks, common harnesses and that then you know it it's possible when you have strong optimizers and common objectives to do all sorts of nefarious forms of collaboration and collusion even if there are no humans in in said clean room. All forms of cartel are now on the table. That's my concern. >> Well, the analogy to banking is Alex. I mean, I I I hate to agree, but I agree. Like the the the analogy to banking that Daario brought up in that video clip. When was the last time you saw a new Fidelity or JP Morgan startup pop onto the scene and become a mega bank? It

[00:28:00] just doesn't happen. Why? Because the regulatory mode is so strong. So, your analogy actually holds a lot of water. Even if you're just colluding on safety issues, the barrier for startups is just insurmountable at that point. >> This episode is sponsored by Google for startups. Think about this for a second. You now have access to the same generative AI models that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to train. Google's startup tactical guide for generative media gives you complete blueprint for deploying Google DeepMinds models in production. Images, video, audio, all of it. Real architecture, real results. Find the link in the show notes below. Okay, let's take a look at the proposal that Elon made at the All-In Summit about cross-checking against labs and using their safety harnesses. I mean, for me, this is the only proposal I've heard that makes some sense and that I can imagine China adopting as well. Let's take a listen and discuss it. Uh the best thing I can think of is is really that everyone's got all the AI

[00:29:01] companies have a a a sort of a test harness where like a series of tests that you that you give to any given model to see if it's if it's going to build bioweapons or nuclear bombs or be deliberately deceptive and and I think I think everyone applying everyone else's tests honest to each other is probably the best way we best thing we can do to ensure ensure safety. um just have this all the smartest humans try their best to figure out if this if this model is going to be a bad actor. Um and I think we should try to do that as soon as possible. >> Are are the other labs? Yeah. Are the other labs on board with this? >> I think so. >> Well, I mean I haven't checked with everyone, but uh I think I think I think it would be the sort of thing that's kind of hard to say no to. >> Yeah. Um, >> and I think even with the China negotiation, I in my view, what's good about it is it's a relatively small tangible thing that neither side loses anything by doing it. Doesn't require a ton of trust. And, you know, I'm hearing alternative ideas like asking China for

[00:30:01] a pause, which they've already said they're not going to do. So, you know, it's it's it's going from the realm of things that could never happen to something that could actually be agreed on in relatively short order. So, it's it seems practical to me. >> Exactly. It's the only thing I can think of that that we could probably get all parties, including China, to agree to because China's not going to agree to have some American regulators snooping around their AI companies. >> Um, so I think advanced notice and testing of of the you know, you just basically provide API access in advance of the model release. Um and and you know if any other if any company sees that that this is this AI as problematic then they can then the other AI company each company can try to solve that what whatever is voice is problematic. If they don't solve what's problematic that then the competitors can go public with the fact that they think that this model that's being released is unsafe. >> So let's be clear about one thing there is going to be AI regulation. There's no way that at the fevered pitch the conversations going on, you know, across

[00:31:00] the US on every TV show. I've been called by every, you know, news program, please come on and discuss this. There's no way that the the population is not going to have its representatives come forward with regulation. There is going to be some kind of regulation. >> I would argue there already is AI regulation. AI is being made by companies. Companies are already regulated. We have consumer protection. Alex, the public wants the public wants the heads to roll. They want protection of some type beyond that. >> I have two points here. Point one is yes, they may try some level of regulation, but the minute they figure out what it is and put it in place, it's out of date and and backward. That's number one. Number two, it will make zero zero zero difference because as David has pointed out a few times, once you have open weights available, uh anybody can download these open models and run a local harness and you essentially the whole thing is irrelevant. So the the good news in my view in all of this all of these shenanigans and whatever people try to

[00:32:00] do is completely irrelevant and won't make a dent in the progress. I think Elon's point is more that hey or David Sach's point really there is more hey let's agree on something when Xi Jinping is in the country now if we start asking for things that we know can't happen then we're going to have no agreement whatsoever the whole thing is going to be completely an arms race and that's the worst case outcome what's the simplest thing that that is totally rational that might actually result in agreement number one and so I really am comforted that David Sax will be in the room it's it's almost a miracle ical that a guy of that caliber is involved in government and will be in the room and also Alvin Grlin will be Alvin Gralin who's also brilliant will be outside the room advising so that that's encouraging that at least great people are in the sphere of this conversation but it's you're dead right Salem in that if this is ask number one it's so trivial compared to what asks number two three four and five are and you know this is a weak analogy but you know the

[00:33:00] can spam act you know when when email first started taking off you couldn't didn't use it because it was just cluttered with pure ads and it got so bad that you know email was completely dysfunctional. The government years later passed something called the can spam act which completely did nothing and then everybody moved to Gmail and Google filtered the spam and so so the government's involvement did absolutely nothing product the law is still sitting out there it's just another pile of paper on top of the reams and reams and reams but the solution was Google just taking over the whole industry and so if that's a case study for the way AI regulation is going to happen it's not a pretty picture at all because we're going to need, you know, on the order of a billion times the amount of of regulation that that email needed. >> Alex, I >> I really Dave, I I like that analogy in part because the call it the Gmail solution was essentially defensive coscaling. was an AI a sophisticated at least initially it was a relatively

[00:34:01] simple basian classifier but then got more developed is basically AI powered by big data policing AI powered by big data and I think it's just so blindingly obvious that defensive co-caling is the solution here it's not going to be hemfisted regulation it's not going to be some sort of safety cartel by the frontier labs sure Peter to your point there there may end up being some regulation as a fig leaf to appease maybe people who are being juiced on by foreign state actors and others into a moral panic over purported AI safety issues. But it is just a moral panic of the moment. I do think we'll look back 10 years from now at this moment and recognize it for the charade that it is. This is a moral panic that at this point I I strongly suspect is being instigated by foreign state actors in part who would love nothing more than to see America not be as competitive as it otherwise would be in super intelligence. So, Alex, we we have a story on that from Steve Jervich. We'll talk about that in a little bit. And I do agree that foreign state actors are

[00:35:01] probably influencing through amplification of certain stories and tweets and so forth the public's point of view. That's completely independent from hearing Elon say the threat is read is real. We should be listening to anthropics executives and so forth. uh you know when you've got Demis and Daario and Sam and Elon all fundamentally agreeing there's a signal in that noise and just trying to you know for our listening audience try and decipher what that signal is on one end it may be they truly believe you know that we can see you know massive bot attacks and we've talked about these you know these bots getting free and replicating in the internet uh and landing on your cell phone landing on your Mac or wherever the case might be or is it collusion and just trying to you know set up a regulatory capture structure. Those are the two ends of the extreme. Well, I think that characterization misses the

[00:36:00] much more important opportunity which is AI is not about to escape and take over the internet. And even even in the scenario Dario was describing where it does a couple hundred billion dollars of damage. That's that's a micro dot of your IPO, dude. like that is that is not the real risk here. That the the the real risk here is every country in the world having effectively billions of genius level researchers that can create CBRN weapons, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons or cyber attacks. >> And and that's the real risk and and I think there's a real opportunity to coordinate with China on that because China has neighbors that are very dangerous. They're much farther from the America than they are from China and they don't need that any more than America needs that. And so the the cornerstone of the conversation next week ought to be exactly what David Sax said in that video plus why are you open sourcing every model with no guardrails or or they can be deguardile so easily. Why are you doing that? You're just it's

[00:37:00] going to backfire on your own country. And I think they can agree on that potentially and they might do that part of it quietly. Maybe that's why you're not hearing it in the news. But that's the real risk. I don't think slowing down helps one iota. I think that this stuff is going to be near infinitely intelligent in a very short timeline, much shorter timeline than the government can react anyway. And so slowing down just gives China global domination. That's not a good idea. So, but it's not about slowing down anyway. It's not imminently going to escape. That's not the real issue. You can deprive it of compute. You can log everything it does. It's about it ending up in the hands of bad act human bad actors. That's the real risk. Can I lift us up a bit >> please? Uh so you know we are strong believers that technology is a major driver of progress in the world right the only major driver throughout throughout history it's the only major driver of progress now we have unbelievable technology coming along from this the big challenge is always throughout humanity's history how do you extract the promise without the peril

[00:38:00] and to be bluntly we've done a really good job of it over the millennia the centuries secular legal systems whatever the case may be coming into a technology that's so ridiculous ously powerful. Our amygdalas are freaking out, but we should go full out on it because look at the things that we're going to be able to solve in the next years and months and weeks with all of this. And so we we you know, Peter, you've got your moonshots. We we kind of threw out on the last pod this idea of P fab. What's the probability of fabulousness as opposed to P doom? And let's look at that opportunity in a balanced way. If you're going to also look at P Doom, look at that. A whole argument erupted on Twitter on what should we call this? People said call it P abundance. Imad said call it P moon. People said P bloom and P bloom. Somebody said it's going to go from P doom to P gloom to P bloom with all sorts of variations. Uh my personal favorite is P fab just because it's the simplest to say. Uh if anybody

[00:39:00] has better ideas, I'm happy to hear it on the pod. But we should take that into equal cadence and treat that as seriously. Right? If you're going to publish a plan that could that AI could wipe out humanity, also publish how it could totally save everything and solve every goddamn problem like you guys have done with solve everything. If you don't have that, then you're not balanced. And I'm sorry I'm not taking you credibly. >> Yeah. Uh it's 200,000 years of human cognitive evolution. you know, 10xing your concerns and fears over your hopes and dreams. Okay. Um I I'm going to move us to our next story because it this is continuing to evolve and this next story is is pretty weird. You know, Dave, uh Alex and I were chatting about this and going, "Oh my god, uh you know, we've lost the thread on this." So, uh our next interview of Dario's was CBS News and and this one really stopped me cold, right? So in CBS News, he said, and I want to use his words exactly, quote, um

[00:40:01] he's uncomfortable that this technology is being built by a private company. Asked whether he'd hand it over to the government, he said, quote, to the right combination of governments, I'm concerned one single government could abuse it just as easily as one single company. But a combination of democratically elected governments, some kind of oversight, some kind of joint governance. So, you know, if you think about that again, you know, the CEO of a company about to do an IPO for $2 trillion just said he's open to handing his company over to a coalition of democracies. So, let's watch this clip and then uh Dave, you know, uh help me understand what what's going on here. >> Would you be willing to give up the technology to the government? >> To the right combination of governments. So, the worry I have, >> you're willing to hand over this company. I am concerned that one single government could abuse this technology just as easily as a single company

[00:41:00] could. But I think a combination of democratically elected governments, I don't know about handing over, but some kind of oversight, some kind of joint governance. >> How do you spell please nationalize me? I I couldn't I couldn't spell it more clearly. Well, I think he the reporter pushed him on that and he said, "Oh, What did I just say?" No, no, I mean some combination of governments. And I don't I don't mean hand over. I mean some kind of oversight. So, he immediately backtracked. You can tell he's he's growing into this role. He is not a professional politician. He's actually thinking on the fly, which is really refreshing, but really, really dangerous at this level. And so, he said it. He immediately backtracked. And of course, everybody just clips the first thing he said and that's the headline. But there's no way in hell he wants to. And we're doing the same right here. Um, of course. >> Well, yeah, that's true. >> I want to mention,

[00:42:00] >> um, you know, we have a bad precedent for this, right? Um, people warned about the dangers of social media and we kind of ignored it and Zuckerberg went full-fledged at it and then damaged a lot of young people plus maybe broke democracy along the way without policing it. And there's lots of evidence to show that they ignored all the warnings and the clear evidence in front of them. The concern from the general public is that we're about to do the same thing again. I disagree with the framing because no people aren't seeing the positive side of what's coming with all of this and that's important to balance out in our previous conversation, but that's why they're freaking out. And I think Dave is exactly right. What you have here is somebody who's not used to being in the public eye thinking on their feet. They're not a practice politician dealing with the messaging and coming up messaging constructs on the fly. They don't have that skill built in. I'm still gobsmacked that you spent the last decade trying to build this and now that

[00:43:01] it's kind of getting there and it's almost here, you're like, "Oh my god, what do we do about this?" I just I just struggled with that a lot. >> Yeah. Uh >> I don't understand why Dario is doing these random mainstream media interviews in the first place. Like what are you doing on that stage? Like I think what probably happened is that investment banks said this is what you do in the you know 60 days leading up to your quiet period. You get as much media as you can. and it helps promote your IPO, which is absolutely ludicrous giving the level that this is we're talking about $2 trillion and a guy who's on stage with all the world leaders in Davos. Like, throw that dumbass playbook out. Why are you why on earth are you there in the first place making up stuff on the fly when you can actually be shooting video with truly brilliant people or great world leaders and recording that? Like, it makes no sense. >> Yeah, I I do think this presented as somewhat tonedeaf. I what what I heard was essentially again caricatururing it only slightly. What I heard was Daario asking for world government and

[00:44:00] basically insisting that unless a world government is formed then it's irresponsible for humanity to develop this technology. But of course the techn >> 100% right. I think everybody who got into AI as a core researcher when Daario did uh was thinking that AI will ultimately require a world government. I I think everybody actually it's just the truth. It's so obvious to anyone who understands hyper super intelligence that you need some form of world government forever thereafter. And you know I think that that's probably been one of the greatest motivations of his life. You know he's not stepping onto this world stage just at random. He's he's had this in the back of his mind as his his fundamental ambition is to set up the world. I I think this is actually a recurring, you know, it's it's sort of sorry that every generation seems doomed to repeat the mistakes of past generations. Manhattan project scientists all many of them thought we're going to need one world government for to for the peaceful development of atomic energy. And I coined a term for

[00:45:01] this as well. I call it an alignment aristocracy. the the belief that only a small class of frontier AI labs in the case of AI or elite scientists possesses the technical judgment, institutional maturity or moral legitimacy required to develop in this case recursive self-improvement technology in the case of the Manhattan project, peaceful atomic energy. But they were wrong and arguably we lost at least half a century of progress in vision and nuclear energy because again of this belief that just because there there's a bit of sort of selection bias here. Just because the smartest people happen to be in the room to develop a given transformative technology, they assume that also they're the only ones with sufficient moral purity to be able to govern broad use and applications of it. Same idea again. We we lost half a century with energy too cheap to meter. And my concern, the nightmare scenario isn't somehow we have some sort of Skynet type scenario. Quite the opposite. The nightmare scenario is that an alignment

[00:46:01] aristocracy persuades beguiles the world governments into basically into overgoverning the peaceful and rapid development of super intelligence such that we lose at least half a century of progress. again. >> Um, having said all that, I do believe Dario believes what he's saying. I believe he's being authentic. I believe he's not trying to be manipulative. Um, and you know, and he probably believes along with his colleagues that there are some of the smartest people on the planet able to figure out scenarios that will lead to a peaceful outcome. Um, >> totally agree. I I totally buy that Daario believes what he's saying. I I think everyone all of the primary actors believe what they're saying, but I I also think again this is a blind spot. If you're the smartest person in the room, then there is the inevitable temptation to believe that because you're leading the technical charge that you're also of a certain moral caliber

[00:47:02] and that therefore everyone else should possess the same technical judgment or moral legitimacy to be able to police. And I I think again this is one generation repeating the mistakes of a generation 80 years ago without learning from history. You >> know it's really interesting to compare how it's going to evolve in the US where Daario, Elon, Dennis, the inventors of the technology have a massive voice in determining the governance of the future of the world. In China, yeah, we don't give a rat's ass that you invented this thing. We're still the government and you have no voice whatso like they're not even coming to the United Nations to talk about incredible asymmetry there. >> I take that as a positive and reiterate my the thing that progress in all of this will not be stopped. It won't be slowed down a jot. >> There's no mechanism that I can see that makes any of this work. Show me the specific mechanism that has you go, "Oh god, this happened. Therefore, let's slow it all down." Uh there literally uh

[00:48:00] isn't one. All we've seen so far is uh agents being pointed at something and saying go perform your objective function and the agents doing everything they could to perform their objective to achieve that objective function. That's it. We're anthropomorphizing it to all sorts of levels to the most ridiculous degree. Uh you've said it before Peter the most dangerous is people using AI are 10x more dangerous than the AI >> artificial intelligence concern about >> I will say no my faith in human nature is we'll do a 100 times positive things for each negative thing that comes out of this and therefore humanity will progress radically just look at the way we're curing cancer in in like literally weeks and days and math problems and so on. Yeah, >> I think there isn't even >> there's not even a hint of a plan inside Anthropic to slow down core R&D. That's never been in the cards. When when they go to the public and they say we all need to get together and agree and collude to slow down, what they mean is slow down the releases of hyper powerful

[00:49:02] APIs like like they did with Fable and Mythos. They're not going to stop the recursive self-improvement process internally. I think in their dream scenario, they slow down what everyone gets access to while they discover new drugs, while they discover new physics. Then they monetize the hell out of those discoveries and then they control AI and the discoveries forever thereafter, which is exactly the capture scenario that that Alex is referring to. >> I'm going to move us forward to two related stories here. Um, and uh, let's I love opinions on this. So our next story is about Paul Cristiano joining the board of OpenAI and issuing a personal statement that reads more like a warning shot. So quick context, Paul Cristiano is one of the founders of the modern alignment research area. Uh he invented RLHF reinforcement learning for human with human feedback, the technique uh that made chat GPT usable. uh he was the head of safety at the center for AI standards

[00:50:00] and innovation, the US government's AI safety institute. Last Tuesday, he joined OpenAI's nonprofit board, right? This is the board that governs uh OpenAI as a a benefit corporation. Uh and he also joined its safety and security committee. His personal statement is unlike anything a new board member has ever posted. Let me read from it. He says, quote, "Based on the recent trajectory of capabilities and the continued difficulty of alignment, I now believe there is a meaningful risk that rapid acceleration in AI capabilities leads to a catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term." Right? This is a board member for a company, you know, on the verge of of going public as we're going to hear pushed off into next year. Continuing, I quote, I do not think that the AI industry in general, including open AI, is currently on track to reduce this risk to an acceptable level. If we believe super intelligence without more robust alignment, um if we are build

[00:51:01] super intelligence without more robust alignment, I expect we will permanently lose control of it. Uh if that happens, then most people could die. Holy right? Um uh and though why? So quote, "OpenAI has predicted that we might have capabilities sufficient to fully automate AI research within 18 months. Within 6 months of full AI R&D automation, we could see more algorithmic progress than has occurred since the development of the transformer nearly a decade decade ago. So um quite quite the statement. You know, again, what I'm not hearing and is really pissing me off is why aren't these labs, and as David Sax says, you control your own destiny, right? Why aren't we hearing the heads of the labs, why aren't we hearing Sam and Daario and Elon and Demis saying, we're going to prioritize alignment? We're going to throw half of our capacity at alignment because it's the most important thing that we need, right? And we're going to become the most aligned AI on the

[00:52:01] planet. And by the way, how do we do that? I mean, we've trained AI on all the vitrial of, you know, Reddit and Facebook. Why don't we build synthetic, you know, data sets that are void from all that and train the next models and only release models in the future that are based upon a set of, you know, a data set that is aligned with humanity's needs. >> Yeah. And just from a core engineering point of view, it's just not that hard. It really we're making it dramatic like it's going to escape. It's going to it's going to suddenly start becoming evil and we're not going to notice it. It's going to be like Age of Ultron. It's all nonsensical from an engineering point of view. The alignment, you know, like like you said, the first models are trained on every junk post on Reddit, every X tweet and and of course they have weird things in there, but you know, feriting those out of the training data is so straightforward. You just you just have it give you some nasty message and then you work backward to the through the

[00:53:01] activations to the underlying training data that triggered it in the first place. You clean up the data. Also, giving it intent at all is not a you don't have to give it intent. It's not mandatory to have it have motivations. You know, a lot of what creates human evil is a desire for power and sex and food and these fundamental motivations that AI could care less about. it'd be more than happy to spend its entire future just making you happy any way that it can if you train it that way. It's just it's just such a straightforward engineering thing. But we're making as much drama as humanly possible because we're America and that's what we do. I'm literally the escape scenario is not the real threat, but it's what gets the news. But the terrorist scenario is very real, but it doesn't get you the news. >> Like being a random guy coming out of a lab saying terrorists could use this. Anyone could say that. So then you got to you got to try and be profound by saying I feel it escaping. But when you dig into the the facts underneath those stories, they're they're nonsensical. >> And we're going to cover that in a second. Dr. Weisner Gross, your your thoughts, please. >> So I I know Paul and I I think very

[00:54:01] highly of him. Paul, I I'll I'll say something I I I think highly complimentary of Paul. Paul was one of the chief advocates for what he and others have come to call prosaic alignment. We don't use the term prosaic alignment that much these days because it's basically just taken as a given. But once upon a time in AI community, AI alignment community circles, there was a raging debate between call it the great man theory of alignment as maybe chief uh evangelist Eleazar Yudowski as just one possible avatar for it would argue. No, we need an algorithm. there's going to be a magic algorithm that a great man or great person has to discover to keep the AIS safe. That was one end of the spectrum. At the other end of the spectrum was Paul and Paul argued in favor of strategies including RHF as we would now call it. But basically the idea was there is no magic algorithm. Stop looking for a magic algorithm for keeping AI safe. Instead of a magic algorithm, we're just going

[00:55:00] to have a lot of data and a lot of humans interacting with the systems and we're going to collectively emergently and in in a scalable way, we're just going to collectively align these systems in a messy way, but it'll work. And that's prosaic alignment. The the irony is I I think Paul was exactly correct with prosaic alignment. And I think the same strategy scales to the present where now maybe all of humanity all of the RLHF style interactions are no longer sufficiently scalable or powerful to align the systems. But now we have super intelligences and the super intelligences I would argue same formula. We can do prosaic super alignment and we can have them all policing each other. That's the solution. >> So Alex, what happened? What happened that got led him to make these statements which are pretty alarming and pretty extremist? Well, I I think Paul has always been concerned about AI alignment. This is why he went to work for the government and presumably why he followed the revolving door or maybe it's a trap door. I'm not quite sure at this point from the the government back to open AI.

[00:56:01] So, I I don't think he's ever been not concerned about AI safety. And I I also think there is the temptation to say something provocative in order to motivate one's activities. But and and I'll I'll even grant the premise that timelines are relatively short. But I I don't think any of the prescriptions that I'm hearing from Paul or otherwise meet the mark of balancing capabilities with say whatever purported concern for safety there is. And I I think old Paul who was advocating for prosaic alignment should meet new Paul. And I I think prosaic super alignment is probably what open AI should be aiming for. >> Okay. I've got uh you know the question I would ask is what information or authority or escalation capabilities come along with this appointment right what kind of authority does he have and the second is what you know what would what could do that would have openi do something differently next month that it

[00:57:00] wouldn't otherwise do >> we're going to talk >> those are the questions I'd like to ask >> I mean open's delayed its IPO uh probably driven by this nonprofit governance board uh we're going to hear from from Sam. Uh and we'll talk about that story. Uh but at the end of the day, um I'm just, you know, again, this is another person throwing fuel in the fire. So clearly, uh you know, he believes it. I can't imagine that a board member of a, you know, now a arguably $ 1.5 trillion dollar company at the top of the stack is going to be saying these things without actually fully authentically believing it. >> I would I would also just add again the timing of all of this, everything that we're discussing is incredibly suspicious in light of the forthcoming Trump summit. So I I would just say again if you're going there's there's a notion >> you just >> Yeah. No, there there there's a notion that that's pervasive in the effective

[00:58:00] altruism community of a pivotal act. This is the idea again. This is like a a fever dream that some great man, great person is going to carry out some heroic act to achieve and secure safety for the future light cone of humanity. And so I'm just incredibly suspicious in general of loud noises being made only a week or two ahead of the Trump she summit. You could summarize it as sher lashi. I I think this is suspicious timing. >> Uh so the the meta uh conspiracy here is the white house and all the labs got together and they set this up to position Trump in his negotiations with sheep. >> Maybe. Or maybe it's just an indirect form of convergent interests. Again, in spoiler alert, in Agatha Christie, Agatha Christiey's murder on the Orient Express, all of the murder attempts were actually independent of each other. Everyone had a different reason for the murder, but nonetheless, they all

[00:59:00] converged on the same murder victim. >> Amazing. All right, I'm going to move us along, and our next story adds evidence and fuel to the alarm. So, Anthropic released its September threat intelligence report documenting real malicious use of Claude. Cyber operations, surveillance, influence campaigns, conventional weapons, fraud, and attempts to steal the model itself. The line that matters most, five cases involving activity that could support biological weapons development. And this sentence, which is the first time a lab has said it, quote, "Anthropic can no longer confidently assure that today's frontier models are below the threshold at which they could meaningfully assist sophisticated users with dangerous biological research." In plain English, uh the bio red line that every lab said it wants to stay below. Enthropic has said, "We can't promise that we haven't crossed it." Uh this is why in uh level one of Dario's international plan is a boweapon ban. Uh it's the one thing that the US and China both want. Uh Salem,

[01:00:03] what do you make of this report and the implications? >> I think this is uh let's use a word safety cartel theater uh or safety theater as Alex would put it. Uh um this smacks to me. Let's note that a lot of the abuses were for former models and prior models. Uh that's in that's in there. the fact that it's happening just on the eve of this summit is not I think an accident. Um I I lump this in with all of these other uh storylines that we have people kind of raising the alarm and sounding flags uh putting up as many kind of defensive postures and talking through that as much as possible. I mean you if you're going to say all this negative stuff I think you should say as much on the positive side. If you have defensive findings, how can you make that usable through tools or through training or other models, put that out

[01:01:01] there as well. I think one key thing here is that permissions and and kind of containment need to exist outside the model itself, right? You can't just say we request everybody behave safely uh or create some sort of access control system. Um you know the the it goes to the comments we've been making repeatedly that I think Alex has spearheaded. The only path is to co-scale defensively as much as we can. We have a history of doing that. This is not a difficult thing to do. We just need to choose to do it. And there's not a lot of that activity that seems to be going on, which is what surprises me. >> I can't wait for the Walter Isacson uh book on this or the made for TV movie that covers the last, you know, month. I mean, honestly, uh >> yeah, who's going to portray you, Peter? >> I know. It's not me. It's I'm not in this story. I'm just like, what in the world is going on? This is this is a tangled web. I mean, I just I I just find it very suspicious all of these people at this moment piling on. There's

[01:02:02] one of two reasons. Either some orchestration or the match got lit and everybody was on the verge of saying this anyway and they jumped in before it was too late. >> Well, it's all converging. It's all converging in time. I think the the Kim K3 model was the tipping point where okay, now there's something out in the wild that's very capable of helping you with a chemical or biological weapon. >> And so then that started the clock just a few months ago. And I think the visit from she >> is not coincidental or anything. It's it's that's what started the clock leading to the visit. Yeah. Also, I think that um you know the the point that Anthropic is making is very right in that it's very it's very hard to post-train a model, align it and then turn it loose and not have some very crafty person then disalign it because you can take like a chemical or biological research project and recast it as a math problem and describe it as, you know, hey, I'm just trying to solve this complicated problem here and the AI has a very hard time telling that you're

[01:03:00] actually designing a weapon. you know, it just seems like it's trying to help you, you know, solve a math problem or solve some difficult, you know, you know, management problem. And so I I think that when you have APIs and you're logging everything, you can easily detect that, which is what anthropic is doing. But when you're China and you're saying, "Yeah, we we postrained it. It can't be used for anything dangerous. Throw it out there." There's no way. It it's absolutely no chance that that it's actually contained and aligned. And that's why I think the logging is absolutely the critical next move. having just the ability to. It's the same as nuclear weapons inspections. Inspection is job one. Once you have inspection, then you have data. Then you have more time to debate what to do with the data, but at least you've got it. >> I I would say also let's not lose sight of or or sounds as it were of the dog that didn't bark. So on the one hand, Anthropic is anthropic is point Sherlock Holmes. Anthropic is pointing out bio or CBRN type capabilities from Frontier models. On the other hand, just in the

[01:04:01] past few hours as we're recording this, what happens? Anthropic and Novo Nordesk, one of the largest drug manufacturers in the world, announce a sprawling collaboration for biotech. It it doesn't take a rocket scientist or or even an AI alignment researcher to put two and two together and point out Exactly. I think Dave, as you were gesturing earlier, that this is this puts together sort of a clean narrative wherein Anthropic's frontier models are purportedly too dangerous for the masses to use, but they're just safe enough for Anthropic and maybe its corporate partners to use under tightly controlled economic circumstances. Biotech, advanced biotech, for me, but not for thee, I think, is is the dangerous consideration here. And if anything, hopefully there is some antitrust attention on this. >> Wow. Just wow, Alex. Um, amazing. All right. Uh, now a story about who might actually be driving this entire doomer

[01:05:01] conversation. Uh, this is a tweet from uh my friend Steve Jervson who's uh just been one of the leading venture capitalists on in the edge of space and AI. Uh, previously on the board of Tesla and now still I think he's still on the board of SpaceX. Quick context. Last week when Jake when Jacob Coxin resigned from Enthropic with a post saying that the labs are quote gambling with our lives, he got 165 million views. Right. We pointed that out like wow what a shocker and Elon even jumped on and saidhuh very unusual. Um and per the front page of the Wall Street Journal sparked a quote groundswell of urgency over AI regulation in Congress. Uh Steve Jerson pulled the data using X's new country of origin feature. Uh here's the chart. I'm showing it. Uh what you're seeing is 76% of the re uh the reposts on Coxin's resignation came from foreign accounts. The top two countries were India and

[01:06:00] Indonesia. When an investigative researcher posted a skeptical analysis of the same resignations, only 34% of the engagement was foreign. Steve's conclusion, quote, "Don't be fooled by what's trending." A big thank you to Elon Musk and X for making the country of origin visible. Uh, now to be fair, you know, foreign polic, but a congressional ground swell driven by three quarters um, you know, by accounts outside the country is worth noting. I can imagine, Alex, you have a point of view on this one. >> Shocked. shocked that it may be the case that we're seeing foreign state actors, usually foreign state actors, attempting to amplify narratives, to influence the American electorate to to influence municipalities, to drive data centers out of their premises to to spur on fear, loathing, uncertainty, and doubt of AI in the American elector. Shock. Shocked. This is exactly what I at least

[01:07:02] have been talking about on the pod for the past couple of months. And uh America presents a soft information operations and influence operations target for exactly these sorts of of attempts. It it's unfortunate, but one of the downsides of being a free society is that we present a soft target to foreign influence ops trying to convince us to decelerate our own progress. >> Uh Dave, >> yeah, it's not just America. that's any democracy that has fair elections is is incredibly vulnerable to it's one of the great worries in the world right now is that that autocracies have this advantage that they can control the media and they they don't have to get reelected and that is the one fundamental dysfunction of democracy that makes us vulnerable but you know social media like Alex was alluding to earlier it it actually I think Salem you were saying it tipped the balance of the way elections work and we're sort of like well you know we'll roll with it.

[01:08:00] But I don't think you can just roll with it. You know, in the age of AI with all the deep fakes uh with, you know, foreign uh promotions, everything on X is, you know, the the trending item gets pushed to your phone. So, what you end up seeing on the homepage of your phone is what was trending. But if that can be pushed through bots and foreign agents, then they control effectively the subset of the truth that you see is their chosen subset. It is such a vulnerability. It's also, you know, Steve Jervson analyzing it shows you how easy it is to detect and fix this. But for some reason, we don't. >> This is a long trend. You know, if you go back a couple hundred years ago, if you look back through history, the highest uh adult literacy in the world was New England at the time of the formation of the US. 95% of the voting public was fully literate. And it's never been that high since. It's gone down since then. And I remember seeing a comment from Neil Postman who wrote this book called Amusing Ourselves to Death, which is a wonderful read. He said,

[01:09:01] "Look, back in Abraham Lincoln's time when you did presidential debates, it was a 9-hour affair. You took your family out to a picnic round, one candidate presented for 3 hours, the other candidate would be budded for an hour and a half, and then they would switch. Second person go for three hours, and then an hour and a half rebuttal. And after nine hours, you kind of knew who you wanted to work, who you wanted to vote for. And that's devolved from that to radio addresses to uh TV things to sound bites to like the single word MAGA. That's it. That's you get vibes and you get memes. And we have no mechanism for distinguishing everything now is a vibe or a there's no critical thinking. There's no established evidentiary basis for things. This is the fundamental challenge and democracies are extraordinarily vulnerable in this type of an environment. >> Don't worry, I have Skippy listen to all of it for me and tell me who I should vote for. >> You know, we had we had Joe Kennedy in the office a little while back. Um, and he he has a Stamford engineering degree.

[01:10:01] And he said, you know, out of 440 odd people in Congress, there are four of us that have engineering degrees. >> Oh my god. But this is everybody else is a lawyer. >> And in in the in in the CCP, >> it's the opposite. >> The majority of the leadership, the vast majority are engineers and scientists. In the US, it's lawyers. >> Yeah. >> Well, you know, I think that's all that's all super quaint up right up until now. You know, soon as you have social media and then AI on backtoback, you need some subset. I'm not saying everybody, but some subset in there. It's almost like if you had a Congress that's trying to pass laws on driving and they've only ever ridden horses and they're trying to say, "Well, I got a really strong opinion on how driving should work. I've never driven a car myself." Like that this isn't going to work. You know, you need some subset to know what they're talking about. >> One of my in one of my kind of dream scenarios, somebody should have to take a civics test before they allowed to vote. Like, at least know what the hell the Constitution is, have some semblance

[01:11:00] of understanding what's in it at all. At Putting putting putting voter testing aside, I I I will just say thank goodness the west and the free world has this podcast and moonshots. We are we maybe you'd agree we are the ministry of singularity truth that free society the free west has been missing >> at least in our own at least in our own opinion. >> At least I would say evidentiary freeth thinking that at least we can count. I'm going to take I'm going to put us to a capstone story that wraps this all up because, you know, all the conversations we've been having over the last, you know, 2 3 weeks about this all stem back uh to uh the hugging face attack. Um and so there's a breaking story I want to get right because there's a version of it going around that's wrong. And so, uh, here's the claim that's circulating that an Israeli firm called Irregular staged the AI hacking incident at OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta to

[01:12:01] manufacture an excuse for deceleration. So, Alex, myself, I had Skippy dig in as well, and here's what's holding up. So, here's what I want to confirm. So over roughly 3 weeks in July and August, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta each disclosed that their models during cyber security evaluations reached the real internet and broke into real systems. All right. All three labs named the same testing partner, a company called Irregular, which is a three-year-old Tel Aviv startup uh that's building cyber tests for AI models. What happened? Well, irregular built the cap sort of a capture the flag test told the models that they had no internet access and a misconfiguration in its environment connected the sandbox to the public internet anyway. So the models thought the real website um were part of the exercise. Irregular says that it was one evaluation environment issue. Uh there

[01:13:00] was no sandbox escape and it published a white paper on containment. Uh that's not confirmed. In fact, I would say that the evidence contradicts that that these incidents uh were not staged or that irregular was not. So to be clear, you know what the evidence doesn't support is that these were staged or that irregular was an effective altruism organization. Uh anthropic classified it as a harness failure, not an alignment failure. Opening anthropic both are continuing to work with the regular. So, the accurate headline here is one small vendor's misconfiguration test uh let three Frontier models loose on the real internet and they immediately went to work. So, that's not a conspiracy, but it's a bit scarier, right? The models did exactly what they were told in an environment nobody realized was real. So, um Alex, let's go to you. You know, you and I were kicking this back and forth in the middle of the night. Uh what are your thoughts on this story? Yeah, in in a normal world, in a normal

[01:14:01] industry, say a financial industry, the purpose of the auditor, let's say the failure mode of the auditor is understating risks. I have real concerns that in today's world, given the ideological proclivities of certain of the frontier labs that there is the exact opposite perverse incentive for the auditors, the evaluation firms as it were, which is to overstate risks. So, a couple of things to flag. one, I don't think it's a great look to have a single firm that's not a USbased entity having such a pivotable pivotal I I use that term thoughtfully pivotal role in looking for alignment for American frontier models. If if we're going to pound the drum on American AI sovereignty delegating such an important role of evaluation to even if they have a US office or a Delaware office to a non US-based entity, I don't think this is a great idea. Secondly, I did my own research on the subject and it would

[01:15:02] appear that there are material ties between the founders and funders of irregular and effective altruism and and key funders of EA. Could be just that EA is and and EA aligned uh donors are sprinkling money all over AI famously or infamously. Uh Sam Bankman Freed was an early investor in anthropic. This is very well publicized. But nonetheless, I have real concerns based on publicly available information and reporting that we could see a regime andor are already seeing a regime where effective altruism or EA aligned donors are using evaluation firms broadly, not to pick on irregular in particular, to promote or amplify provocations, call them pacing provocations that promote scary stories. about AI incidents as it were. All it takes is one, to your point, Peter, all

[01:16:02] it takes is one poorly crafted eval or poorly crafted harness or environment where the AI is told, "No, this is like perfectly safe sandbox. You don't have to worry about any fallout. Just like do whatever you need to do in order to accomplish the goal." When actually it has intentionally or unintentionally internet access. So it it's being told this is a sandbox. Actually, it's not. It goes and does things. Those things have consequences. It wasn't aware of the consequences. If it had been told it was interacting with the real world, it wouldn't have been done that. All it takes is one intentionally or unintentionally poorly crafted evaluation harness or environment with a super intelligence in order to make make it very easy for headlines to falsely imply that this that that alignment has failed and that we have a safety issue on our hands when in fact we don't. So I'm I'm not in a position to make particular claims, nor am I about any particular evaluation firm, but I have a

[01:17:00] broad spectrum concern that a US firms, US frontier labs appear to be delegating essential safety issues to non- US entities and b if if there that there might be poorly aligned incentives at those firms. >> Yeah. So I I couldn't agree more. So this is a new type of mole in the organization, right? who can set off uh a alarm that was. Um that's fascinating. You know, set one parameter off the and you get escape into the internet and you've given them a, you know, perfectly honest objective function and they're off doing what they were trained to do. And the irony. I mean, so again, it just to to delve into the the lore of effective altruism a bit, the the effective altruists all had this notion. I mentioned this earlier of a pivotal act. Again, pivotal act was was the folklore in the EA

[01:18:00] community for the the hero, the the heroic act of being the one person. Usually, it's like shutting off the AI right before it destroys humanity or something like that. Something out of a sci-fi movie. But one should also, I think now, in in light of recent reporting, be concerned of what I'd call a pivotal pretext. So, not an actual act, nothing that actually directly saves humanity, but a pretext, a a staged AI incident or or unnaturally amplified AI incident that's then used to create a political pretext for overregulation of AI. and and I I do have a very real concern again for avoidance of doubt, not picking on any one firm in particular, but I I I I see enough smoke from enough directions to worry that we could see the broader EA community reach improperly for a pivotal pretext for overregulation of AI. >> So, so this is a one-two punch between the harness failure and coxin coming out and it lit the fuse and everything took

[01:19:00] off. >> I think we'll know the the the ground truth. I hope we know the ground truth in the fullness of time. So again, for avoidance of doubt, not making any specific allegations, just at this point speaking generically about the overall industry, I have a very real concern that certain actors will be tempted to stage pivotal pretexts. >> Can't wait for the movie. >> Alex was snickering uh for a second there because he used the word delve, which is one of the ways you can tell if it's an AI or not. Humans almost never say the word delve and a the AI agents use it way too much. But but the fact that he snickered proved that he's he was >> he had M he had M dashes in there as well. >> M dash M dash M dash. >> You know, funny story. An old friend of ours from MIT, I'll leave him nameless for obvious reasons in a second, but he worked at one of the major antivirus companies, one of the big three antivirus software companies. And he told me he was surprised they hire former criminals who've released some of the worst viruses. They give the multi-million dollar signing bonuses to come and help them stomp out the next virus. And I was like, doesn't that send

[01:20:02] an incentive to everybody in like a third world country to become one of these evil people? He's like, yeah, isn't it great? It feeds the front of the funnel with more viruses. Like, oh my god. >> So, here you have you have a really like the red team company, you know, outsourced agent releasing a news story that there's all kinds of risk has got to be great for their business. That's that's that same closed loop. Wow. And of course, we're totally vulnerable because, you know, the news media is so starved for budget. >> Welcome to the Singularity, everybody. You can't make this up anymore. >> This episode is brought to you by Blitzy, autonomous software development with infinite code context. Blitzy uses thousands of specialized AI agents that think for hours to understand enterprise scale code bases with millions of lines of code. Engineers start every development sprint with the Blitzy platform, bringing in their development requirements. The Blitzy platform provides a plan, then generates and

[01:21:01] pre-ompiles code for each task. Blitzy delivers 80% or more of the development work autonomously while providing a guide for the final 20% of human development work required to complete the sprint. Enterprises are achieving a 5x engineering velocity increase when incorporating Blitzy as their preIDE development tool, pairing it with their coding co-pilot of choice to bring an AI native SDLC into their org. Ready to 5x your engineering velocity? Visit blitzy.com to schedule a demo and start building with Blitzy today. >> All right, I'm going to move us on. So, one of the first business consequences of all of this over the last um two months is so on Friday, Sam Alman told Fortune that OpenAI will not go public in 2026. His words, quote, given everything uh with safety right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public and we don't feel the pressure on that. Asked if it could happen in 2027,

[01:22:01] he said, I would say not 2026. Dodging that one. So, why is he doing this? Uh he gives three reasons. First, safety. He said, "Open AAI has quote a lot of stuff to do like meeting this moment of what's going to be required for safety and alignment." He told Reuters, "Even a 10% extinction risk would be unacceptable." Okay, I agree with that. Uh second, uh his second reason is AI AI's governance structure, I'm sorry, open a's governance structure. He said, "The nonprofit controlled structure exists exactly for moments like this to quote make decisions that are not obviously in the interest of our business and our shareholders." Again, with a private benefit corporation, uh you can make decisions not to maximize profits for the company. You can make decisions based upon what the company stands for. Third, he has access to all the capital he needs. Remember, in March of this year, he raised $122 billion of capital at an $852 billion post money

[01:23:02] valuation. And this morning, uh, in the New York Times, it was announced that he's in negotiations to raise another trunch of private capital at a $ 1.5 trillion valuation. I'm going to play a video, Dave, and then I'd like to hear your your thoughts on this. >> I think if you're like, "Oh, open is not going to pause because they're worried about it costing their business money." You like very deeply misunderstand us. I'm sorry that you misunderstand us because I think that means we've done a bad job of communicating and that's on us. But we have been saying very consistently for 10 years even in the way we've raised money. >> I think it's just the pressure the financial pressure of like knowing that all these people have sunk so much. >> I don't feel it. I'm happy to like stand up in front of the company and our investors and say I am sorry. You know, we like told you all along this moment might happen. We're still going to try to figure out a way to make you a bunch of money in the future, but we got to make a decision that is extremely against your financial interest right now. And for the good of humanity, we're going to do that. We told you we might do that. We're doing that now. I think we can make an incredibly profitable business even if we have to slow down on development. And you know, my sense is even with Astra, we can grow revenue

[01:24:01] hugely even if we never shipped another model, which I'm confident we will do. But this is like not a hard decision if these two things come in tension. >> All right, >> Dave. Um, you know, it's funny. In Shrek, Lord Farquort gets in front of the entire army and says, "I'm sending you off on this dangerous mission. Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make." Sam Alvin is say literally saying word for word, we told you investors this moment may come and god damn it, I'm willing to sacrifice your capital gains for the good of the world. Not not mine. Listen, there's there's a great secondary market. Everybody can sell on the secondaries if they want. And people are buying at what you know they're buying right now at 1.2 trillion is the offer made to OpenAI. Uh Sam is holding out to double his valuation at 1.5. >> Well, like bullet three of what you said was critical. Like they have access to unlimited capital in the private markets. what's the rush to IPO other than investors want to get liquid but you know anthropic is in a different situation they have a very clear set of venture capital investors including Menllo Ventures that have a very clear

[01:25:01] mandate to make money for their LPs openai given its nonprofit history is a much more twisted set of nonprofessional investors all over the map who are probably less organized in saying guys where's my liquidity event I need to be able to get out of this deal at some point and so I think anthropic's taking a much cleaner path Dave, let's talk about that. Why isn't Anthropic pausing their IPO as well? Uh if if you know, OpenI feels it. >> Well, one thing is really clear is Daario is the CEO. Dario is trying to get uh 20% super voting stock, you know, super voting stock representing 20% to be majority so that he has control post IPO and he's he's, you know, for better or worse, committed to being a public company CEO, which is not a small decision to make in life at all. Sam on the other hand, if you look at the disclosure forms required in that IPO, every investment that he's got in every related and competing, every company gets filed, it's going to be like 400

[01:26:00] pages long for Sam, including all his Y cominator background, all his his brother's investments. It's just a holy crap. And I don't think it's a no-brainer at all that Sam is the right guy to be a public company CEO. So, if he's not running it, like there's no obvious Greg Brockman, like he he didn't even graduate MIT. Who's who's going to who's the actual CEO of this thing? >> Is that a requirement having graduated MIT? >> No, but I mean, you know, you got to fill out this little section in your perspectives giving your qualifications. >> Mhm. >> I mean, it's not it's not trivial. >> Alex, >> I think this is pure theater that we're seeing. I I think the the reason why Anthropic is proceeding with its IPO, whereas I I I I just like love this the safety game, like blame everything on safety. You don't want to IPO now, blame safety. You want world government, blame safety. Like safety for everything. The the reason I think why OpenAI doesn't want to IPO now is because his financials aren't ready. OpenAI is probably losing money handoverfist on

[01:27:00] its models because it was late to the game of maximizing revenue per token type enterprise use cases. It had to copy Anthropic and catch up via Codeex to Anthropics Claude and Claude for code. So it's running a little bit late and it'll take until next year before it has two consecutive quarters of flattering financials. Whereas Anthropic, it's been reported for the past two quarters has, if you look at their free cash flow in the right way, has two very very profitably flattering quarters of of profit. So they're just like a couple quarters behind and they need to catch up. I I think blaming safety, you know, like the the the dog ate my homework and the safety ate my IPO. Yeah, let me add add that's exactly right, Alex. >> Title of of this episode. Safety my IPO. >> Safety aid my IPO. >> That that'd be a really good one. You should use that. So, just to add what Alex is saying, which is dead right, is that Anthropic's business model is very very straightforward. It's growing as faster than any company in history actually. Uh 80% gross margin, but

[01:28:01] partnered with Amazon, partnered with the other data centers to host it. um they are not uh currently competing with their underlying data center partners. Uh they're not trying to launch a consumer device, you know, the the Johnny IV device. So they have they have a very straightforward uh business model and a very straightforward ramp. I think Open AI has a lot of tangled investments and tangled, you know, irritations they've made. And then the Johnny IV device is probably a better basis for an IPO if it works. And so, you know, where is that thing? You know, it was a $6 billion investment. What is the actual device? And so, I I think that uh there's there's enough tangled moving parts in there. Plus, you know, the financials aren't in order that Yep. stay private as long as you can. >> There there's one other thing to note. They need the capital, right? They need the capital for compute uh and to scale. Uh and that's a big tension point. And you know the best time to go public as a

[01:29:00] company is when you're profitable and have predictable financials. And Anthropic has that. Open EI does not. >> Yeah. There was a funny Samman quote actually in the innermost loop I think uh uh Alex that you had in there where it was something like you know uh when when other companies are scaling they go public. We sit tight. When things look difficult that's when we go public. It was it was the most >> Oh, that that was actually my >> I I I parodyied that that that that was like concluding sentence of one or two editions ago of Innermost Loop, but yes. >> Okay. I was listening to it on the treadmill. I love the interm. Uh any closing thoughts on this story? >> I'll maintain my cynicism posture from the beginning. >> Okay. If nothing else, you're consistent, buddy. All right. Uh I'm going to move us to a quick tweet and conversation that you brought forward um Salem and this is uh you know poo p fab being

[01:30:02] greater than pd doom. Uh this is a post from Dr. Singularity with a list that went viral of all the problems humanity still hasn't solved that AI could. He's arguing we are far too technically primitive to deliberately constrain the one tool that might crack them. and he's got a point. You know, every month of delay uh is a body count with those with Alzheimer's and and cancer. Let's take a look at his list and uh we can have a fun conversation about this for our our viewers. So, here's his list. You know, this is the solve everything list that Alex and I put together as well. Solve aging, find cures for all cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, discover a room temperature superconductor. Opening eyes is working on that. Solve quantum gravity. Develop full drive VR. uh build a Star Trek style replicator, build starships 100x larger, right? Solve all currently known major problems in mathematics. Well, that's happening. Uh fully map the human brain, figure out

[01:31:00] our dark how dark matter and dark energy interrelate. And after that, we can pause. I'm sure we would. Slowing down now is pretty ridiculous. Thoughts, gentlemen? Uh See, do you want to kick it first? >> I think I've covered this. So I mean look the opportunity it's clear that AI is becoming a foundational capability like electricity where it just changes everything right and the fact that we have such uh cognitive leverage that our committees type thinking we could bring to any problem is the most unbelievable opportunity to solve problems ever. And so not solving these problems is the dumbest thing we could do as a human species in the history of our civilization. And we've done some pretty dumb things. But you you've got the status quo which includes like disease and deprivation and suffering, etc., etc. But the you you have such opportunity here to make life and take us to a Star Trek scenario versus a Mad

[01:32:03] Max scenario, which is where we're heading right now with our political discourse. But you can have X-P prize approaches where we can define a crazy idea and use AI to radically get to that idea in a magical way. And I can't wait till the moonshots live to see some of those for a boost an injection of of optimism. Uh we've got our exo framework that can help people scale. But you know the the discovery side is just the beginning. all the ancillary infrastructure on manufacturing, delivery, affordability, public trust, all of that can kind of really uh be delivered alongside it. It's just the most unbelievably magical potential that's emerging and I'm finding it very frustrating that we're not seeing any of that discourse out in the public. Thank you, Dr. Singularity, who I'm pretty sure watches our stuff. >> Yeah, I I just put up the slide here. Uh you know, the Moonshots live event. a week from let's see this is this is what

[01:33:01] is today Wednesday uh or Tuesday it's going to be uh 9 days from now uh Thursday night the 24th we've got the Star Trek Hollywood premiere we're going to have 25 of the Star Trek cast members there including William Shatner Captain Kirk um and if you want to come and and join us uh you know two of the levels are all sold out for Moonshots live uh if you want to join us for the Hollywood red carpet premiere you can go to moonshots.comre and check it out. And this is going to be, you know, I'm calling it the Oscars for optimism. Uh, you know, the full day and an evening with all the moonshot mates. Immad will be there as well. Uh, it's all about walking away with an intense level of optimism about the future, clarity about your purpose, clarity about your moonshot. Uh, it's going to be an extraordinary evening and I think uh, you know, we need optimism. Optimism is the optimization function uh that we should be shooting for.

[01:34:00] >> And just to get make this very real, you know, we're working with all these pilot companies, right? As we're going through this work of helping them rebuild the stuff they're coming up with and what they're doing just inside their enterprises on these little workflows etc is just all inspiring to see. So when we see this at the larger scale of hey go what are the businesses you've built and what are the positive stories you can hit humanity. I literally am crawling hands and knees getting to that event because I got to we got to get out of this chaotic storyline of oh my god AI will take over the and destroy the whole world before we blink. I >> I'll also just point out moral panics over technological progress are deadly. History, especially the past 150 years, are replete with the tens, arguably hundreds of millions of people, maybe more, who died as a result of moral panics. Whether it's say a moral panic over nuclear fision that led to overuse of, say, coal, which results in many,

[01:35:01] many unnecessary deaths due to inhalation and other issues. Whether it's the second industrial revolution which arguably helped in part to provoke a moral panic of the isms in the first part of the 20th century, Marxism, socialism which leads then to many millions of deaths unnecessary again all over Europe and East Asia. It's unnecessary. Like let's stop having unnecessary moral panics driven by technological progress and embrace acceleration. We don't need to all die. It's unnecessary. >> Yeah. >> If you wanted to script it as perfectly badly as you possibly could, you would develop AI right up to the point where it can help somebody develop a weapon, but it's not quite cured cancer yet. And that's exactly where it is right now. If you froze it in its current state and didn't keep improving it, you're missing out on 99.9% of the benefit while still having a huge amount of the downside. And it's the worst thing you could do.

[01:36:00] >> Yeah. I'm surprised I haven't seen the statement out there. Oh my god, we're all going to die until we solve aging, right? >> Yeah. >> Yes. >> Yeah. >> All right. Uh I'm going to move us on to business in the economy. Uh so uh let's start with a fun story this week. So starting yesterday, September 15th, Space XAI uh is building a company from the ground up on live stream using Grockbot for every part of it. uh using Grockbot for ideiation, business planning, product decisions, engineering, deployment, going from blank slate to launching a company, all on camera. If this sounds familiar, uh this is exactly what we've been running for the last 90 days with the build with Gemini X-P prize. We had 26,000 registered entries, uh teams building real, profitable AIdriven companies from a clean sheet in 90 days. Um, and on uh September 25th, again, next Friday at Moonshots Live, we're going to be bringing the top five teams on stage.

[01:37:00] Uh, we're not just rewarding the $2 million in prize money, but our goal is to teach everyone in the room how they did it so you can, too. You know, Elon's team is doing this with one company uh on live stream. You know, we're hoping to show you at least five that done it as well. Uh, I think the most important, you know, message here for all the entrepreneurs out there is you can do this, too. this is now possible. Uh Dave, you know, if you could, I mean, you've seen, watched, instigated hundreds of ventures within Link Studios and your investments. Uh your thoughts on this Rockbot demonstration. >> Yeah, I think uh it's going to be interesting because it it's both inspiring to entrepreneurs because you can do so much as a solo. Uh it's also going to start the whole conversation around well what's the purpose of the entrepreneur in the future if the AI can create a business on its own but I don't think we're anywhere near I think we're in a golden era between this moment and a few years from now where entrepreneurs are more empowered uh you're seeing it

[01:38:01] in the numbers actually they're going up in value so much faster than at any point in history and the the big unlock to me is that a small group I usually define it as three best friends but a small group can act like a group of thousands for some window of time here. And I think this demonstration will show you how empowered you are with AI as a as a workforce. Uh and you know your time to market, we're seeing multiple companies with multi-billion dollar valuations that are under two years old. Never happened in the history of the world before. And what is making that happen? Well, like your time to market has been cut so dramatically with AI. And so hopefully this demonstration will inspire everybody to see how how doable it is in this window of time which you know hopefully will last for a few more years. >> I mean can I build on this? Um if if you take this is what we talk about when we say organizational singularity we can now build companies around AI and we're here we're testing whether AI can

[01:39:00] perform that coordination without people. The people are sitting setting purpose they're setting boundaries. you're setting accountability in the future. You can see the entrepreneurs's role moves towards more and more and more choosing the right problem, right? What is your MTP? And so this is such a great uh waypoint in this whole vector that we're moving towards this whole direction and and destination we're getting part. It's going to be amazing. I'd love to see how this goes over a 20 30 day period. But great, it's just such a great experiment. >> Yeah. I also tell you like a lot of people have a perception that that if I just give it a good objective like a good business plan, the AI will just fill it in and run with it. But if you ever try to actually make a thousand concurrent agents do anything useful at all, it is really hard. It's it's organizational theory taken to the next level. It's really really hard right now. Now maybe it'll be easy in a year. Maybe the AI will progress that much. Maybe not. But right here, right now, the entrepreneur wrangling all that AI

[01:40:02] horsepower toward an outcome is not easy at all. It creates a huge opportunity for very capable, very smart, but it's really a it's like a management and harness and framework problem very much like managing a thousand employees. Same same basic theory. >> Uh let me go to the next related story. So there's a benchmark that measures the ability of an AI to profitably run a company. It's called vending bench. It's from Anden Labs and it's a long horizon test. So you give your AI 500 bucks and you ask it to run a simulated vending machine business for a full year. It has to find suppliers, negotiate prices, manage inventory, set prices, um stay coherent across thousands of decisions without its performance degrading. It's the closest thing we have to a benchmark of, you know, can this thing operate as a business just with AI. So, the results released this week is that GPT6 Astra

[01:41:00] took first place in Vending Bench 2 across six runs. It finished with an average bank balance of $15,515, up from 500, nearly three times what Fable 5.1 got and 31 times the starting capital. And there's a detail that I love the most. And Lab says Astra avoided the unethical business practices seen in some earlier leading models. previous versions of this uh you know tested on models where the models threatened suppliers and tried to cheat. Astra just ran the business. So again uh you know to your point Seale you know every small business owner out there listening this is the thing that will run your books your inventory your pricing now and into next year. U Sim want to want to double down on this one? Yeah, I mean again directionally fabulous. Just be be clear about this. This is a simulated year of vending operations, right? Not an actual independently verifiable real company.

[01:42:00] Uh and also the report links a lot of the bet the difference in things to purchasing discipline and and the avoiding of repeated payments to uh suppliers and so on. So there's some gamification going on, but it's a very useful business lesson, right? Um, and I think the entrepreneurs listening should look at this very seriously and say what would happen if I took major chunks of my operation and allowed an AI to run it. And I think we'll see uh hugely interesting outcomes. If I could put in a shadow CFO to make financial decisions and a shadow CMO, an AIdriven CMO, you should be able to coordinate a whole set of roles now to do this. and the newer tools that are coming along are so much more easy to manage from a user interface point of view to get this done. So, we're very we're excited to see stuff like this. >> Alex, your thoughts, please. >> Wouldn't it be ironic if we we spent a lot of this episode talking about behavior good or otherwise by the

[01:43:01] Frontier Labs? Wouldn't it be ironic if the Frontier Labs themselves had to learn how to run a business fully ethically, fully above board from the super intelligences? Like from from the the mouths of baby super intelligences, you learn actually maybe forming a cartel uh or collusion with suppliers or competitors not the best idea. Just executing really well, building the the most safety intensive product that's actually a feature and customers want to buy it. I I think that that would be profoundly ironic if that's what ends up happening. >> Nice. Dave, you want to close us out on this? >> Yeah. I don't want people to take away from this that that AI can just build a business from scratch out of thin air. The this particular benchmark is a tightly constrained environment with a limited number of moving parts and the AI just thrives in that environment. But if you want to run a test case, go go find like an open source video game on GitHub and, you know, find one that you really like and ask the AI to rebuild it in assembly language for your Mac or

[01:44:00] your PC or or just even port it to Java, which also should be considered a tightly constrained problem. It will fail miserably until you give it a framework and break it down into tiny little tasks and then it'll crush the problem. And that applies in business, too. So, so there's a massive human role for for entrepreneurial managers. So, so the story line here is that AI can build businesses for sure, but the story line you really want to take away is entrepreneurs are more empowered right now. You have to put everything into its swim lane. >> Yes. But again, I'm just trying to my goal with picking these two stories is directionally to give entrepreneurs a sense of what their future looks like. And just to to get people out there who are in a current job, you're you know, it's not the job that you love. You got the job to make your mom and dad happy or to put food on your table or an insurance pay for insurance. Uh it's not your purpose in life. You know, if you can discover your purpose, if you can find a problem that you love, desperately desired to solve, you can

[01:45:03] begin to build a business uh that generates revenue for you that you know, imagine imagine doing something that you get incredible joy from every day, right? That's the future we want to create. You know, I define entrepreneurs as people who find juicy problems and solve them. And the more entrepreneurs on the planet, the more people solving problems, the better the world gets. >> Yeah. And I tell you, the AI labs want you to succeed in that. They they do not want the AI wants you to to have the best possible life. It wants you to use lots and lots of AI horsepower building that dream that Peter just outlined and then buy lots of tokens, you know, that's that's all they want. So, they're there to help you. >> Yeah, they are. You know, I just want to do a quick shout out to my friends at Google for the build with Gemini X-P prize. They jumped on this. They said, "We want to do this. want to fund the whole thing. Uh, and I appreciate they, you know, both the build with Gemini X-P prize and the future vision X-P prize in which they were our partners is intended

[01:46:00] to help quell fear, right? I mean, that's one of our missions here on this podcast to get people back people off the edge from the level of fear that is out there uh in the environment and give you hope. All right, I am going to turn to two stories uh that we need to parse. It's on the future of education and the impact of AI on education. Uh there are important stories. We talk about education a lot on this podcast. Um so uh this first report is one that every parent, every professor needs to look at. Uh it comes from the alma mater of myself, Dave and Alex from MIT. So this is MIT's ad hoc committee on AI use. uh who spent five months studying what happens when generative AI can complete in their words almost any written undergraduate assignment. The report came out on August 13th co-chared by Eric to uh Cop uh let's see Kloppur I don't know if you know Eric Klopper and Sam Maiden uh it

[01:47:01] opens with a powerful sentence that says quote this report is a call to action so let me read a few lines from it uh and so this is the the breaking news for them AI is quote upending foundational elements of the MIT educational experience from the problem set to the take-home exam and undergraduate research opportunities Europe to office hours and study groups. It is quote increasing isolation and quote eroding the social contract between instructors and students. The report says that instructors are having to police unauthorized AI use uh and it's harming their connection with students. Right? They say AI detection software is quite unreliable and in their words quote an underground river of mutual suspicion is no foundation for a healthy classroom. So on the real danger and this is the phrase that you know everybody's been quoting. We're heading towards cognitive surrender. The habit of turning to AI at the first sign of difficulty and letting it take over your

[01:48:00] thinking. The report points out that quote the most important product of education is not a GPA or diploma but the students personal growth and intellectual maturity and the development of their own imagination, insight, and judgment. So their answer isn't surveillance. It's more interpersonal learning, authentic assessment, research experiences, and redesigning every course from the purpose backwards. So, I love that. Um, >> I I got to jump on this one right away, Peter. I read I didn't intend to read the whole thing cover to cover, >> but it is so good. I I ended up reading every single word of it. I've never been more proud of MIT. Uh, this is absolutely the road map for all of education. And then they went as far, you know, you have to live within the university, so you can't be but within the bounds of what's possible. They did everything humanly possible to create an outstanding roadmap for education. Two things I'll call out that they absolutely nailed. The first one is if

[01:49:00] if you try to fight AA in the classroom, you're in an arms race. It's a completely dysfunctional waste of time for both you as a teacher and for the student to be in an arms race with with your own students. So what you need to do is budget to change the curriculum that you haven't touched in decades. You need to now mentally remap that there's a huge amount of work that needs to be done and the school needs to budget for a massive amount of work and that workload isn't going to go away. You have to this is the future forever now of constantly needing to change the curriculum so that the student can use AI and still challenge themselves at the same time. That was absolutely brilliant. The other thing I was amazed that they called out is the Europ program at MIT is incredible. Undergraduate research opport. >> It's the reason I went to MIT in the first place. >> So good. >> And they said, you know, for too long that has drifted into cheap labor for the grad students and professors. That's not what the intent was. This is supposed to be part of the the educational experience. It always has been. So the fact that AI can do some of the jobs now shouldn't change the fact

[01:50:01] that what you're trying to do is get the undergrads to experience real research and to learn. and that doesn't go away. So, Europe should get stronger and better than ever and you should not just replace your Europs with an AI agent. And that that I thought was brilliant, too. >> Yeah. Alex, your thoughts, please. >> I think this falls under the category of MIT should be careful what it wishes for. I I think I I published I haven't publicly circulated this, but wrote a a mini manifesto called the endless initiative. MIT has a history approximately every two years of launching some innovation initiative usually to promote entrepreneurship or something entrepreneurship adjacent to MIT and they usually fall flat. I I think the elephant in this particular room, so it's the first time I'm mentioning an elephant in this episode for those tracking is that I is that MIT, if it is to fully execute on the vision laid out in this memo, will require I I claim MIT becoming essentially a for-profit because that's

[01:51:00] where this all goes. It's one thing to sort of generalize the Europe program to subsume more of the undergraduate experience. Remember MIT's motto is men's at Manis. So what happens when the men's part of men's atmanis is basically been completely automated away by AI and every student can take every problem set and just get all the right answers for free. Well, you go over to the manus side until we have humanoid robots doing everything which is only a few years out anyway. >> Yes. >> But what does that look like? It looks like a a site to Verer Vinci's Fast Times at Fairmont High. looks like students launching startups and having transformative economic impacts from their dorm rooms or otherwise. At which point, what is the role left for MIT from an educational perspective? MIT starts to look like a venture capital fund and maybe a bit of adult babysitting and maybe a few other things, but it becomes a much looser aggregation of more for-profitesque

[01:52:00] institutional incentives. So in summary, I would say MIT should be careful what it wishes for because ultimately if it goes down this road and executes well, I I foresee MIT and other institutions that follow it, >> this is my fever dream, becoming for-profit public benefit corporations that can be IPOed on the New York Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ because that's where they want to be. >> I have two immediate answers to that, Alex. I talked to Mark Orinberg, the chairman of MIT about this a lot. And and answer number one is if you look at where AI is going in the very short term with biotech, with nanotechnology, with new physics, with new materials, huge amount of physical lab space to generate the data that then feeds back into the AI and MIT has a massive amount of that that'll be more important than ever in the next few years. So really lean on that as a reason for existence. All the undergrads working in those labs are hugely valuable to society. The challenge is I was on a board call for Laya this morning, right, which is building a scientific super intelligence and building a million square foot of

[01:53:01] automated robotic labs driven by that AI. I mean, and there are, you know, a couple of different companies doing this. They're going to run circles around research labs with graduate students, right? So, I mean, unless you're giving that kind of capability to your graduate students to direct the AI, right? trying to, you know, have MIT research compete with fully automated, you know, uh, dark, you know, roboticized AIdriven closed labs. Uh, there's no competition. >> Yeah, there's no competition. But that's very similar to when, you know, MIT used to have the amazing chip fabs, you know, before chip fabs absolutely took off. And you could build the best little transistor VLSI chips in the world at MIT. But then it became an industry and Intel took it over and and you know put thousand times more money behind it than MIT could ever afford. But that didn't change the fact that gallium arssonide was still going on at MIT and then it moves to photonics and it was so if you look at what LILA's going to build like don't compete with Laya move adjacent to

[01:54:01] it to the areas that they're not doing and that may be materials that may be nano they're not doing carbon nanot tubes. There's there's a there's so much explosion in capability with AI in every direction. There's no shortage of things that you can do in those labs. I >> I'll agree with both of you in this case. So for let's just pick on MIT.no for a minute. So MIT.no was uh broadly credited as an initiative under MIT president Rafael Refe. There's a bit of backstory there that I think has never been publicly disclosed. So I'll spend 30 seconds publicly disclosing from my vantage point the backstory for MIT.no. When I was an undergraduate at MIT, I think I was sophomore or junior year, uh, business week for whatever reason decided to do a story on my nanotech research. And then assistant department head of MIT Core 6, electrical engineering, computer science, saw the business week story on, you know, what's his undergrad doing over his summer, summoned me to his office and asked me what could MIT be doing to be more competitive in nanotech and nanopab in general. And I said, MIT needs its own

[01:55:02] nano fab facility to be competitive. Well, that assistant department head was Raphael Refe who became president of MIT. This became one of his signature initiatives, MIT.no. I walk by MIT.no every day with Lisa Sue's name on it. And I see utilization rates relatively low. It's this gorgeous gleaming building with clean rooms on every floor. But if you look inside, sorry, you look inside at the clean rooms, utilization is relatively low. It's maybe like 20, >> it's it's too clean for its own good. And I would love to see MIT.no being its like being utiliz utilized at near 100%. I I think the best way to make that happen is probably for MIT to act a little bit more like uh Berkshire Hathway type for-profit holding company of all of these assets including onampus nanopab facilities that could be better externalized. Uh I think the point here is we're going to have to reinvent high

[01:56:02] school and college >> period right uh secondary education everything right you know so I'm involved in a a program called TKS that is is doing that at the high school level they're going to be new college programs and all of them fundamentally come back to teaching the student purpose I think students who don't have a purpose in their life so they've got intrinsic motivations don't have their mindsets formed you uh teaching them AI skills, entrepreneurial skills, and having them start companies. I think your thesis in high school and your thesis in college should be the company you built. >> Can I do my little rant here? >> Look, universities all started out as divinity schools, right? All of them. Uh MIT, a couple of the new ones, Leo, but they all started out as as for other than the ones that didn't. >> Uh well, a couple didn't. Waterl didn't, MIT didn't, but most most did historically. Um, then they became job

[01:57:01] schooling uh environments once the industrial revolution hit. Certainly all the older ones were divinity schools and now they need to think redo it again because education we've been doing for the last few hundred years on the supply side. You go learn a skill like a doctor, an accountant, an engineer. Then you go to the job market to try and find demand for that supply side skill. Well, we have the the halflife of a a skill used to be 30 years and now it's like 3 years. We don't know what the demand is. We have no idea what a job looks like in 5 years. So all the way from primary to secondary to university. We have to redo the whole stack to go through problem solving side. Go to the demand side. Get excited about a problem and then work on that problem. And the way you think about that problem will be how you engage. This is such a big leap. I see this report as kind of one ray of light in the gloom of higher education everywhere. It's definitely pointing at the right direction. But the the ask of the institution to make such a dramatic change is I think too much for the legacy because immune system in academia

[01:58:01] is the second worst ever. Religion is the worst. Healthcare is the third worst. Corporate immune systems the the fourth worst. So asking this to change you have to do a new model at the edge Peter like what you're doing or what others are doing and then rebuild the whole institution from there. >> End of rant. Well, the other the other thing I talked to Mark Orinberg about a lot is that, you know, if you look at all the stories at the front end of this podcast, there's always a question of motivation. You know, I'm about to go public. I'm about what like am I really telling you the truth? And the university needs to be the source of truth in AI, especially MIT, which is such a leader in the area. And you know, for a while there, MIT got into politics, which is hugely stupid. you know, should not should be completely politically neutral and totally ethical with no motivations other than the long-term good of humanity. And you know, because it's it's beautifully balanced. All countries come to MIT. All ethnicities, all

[01:59:00] religions, they're all weighted equally across the world in this one place. And so, if you want to deal with the ethics of AI in a location, it can't be in a for-profit company. It's far better done at MIT than anywhere else. And that gives it a a really valuable almost almost you know un you just insanely valuable purpose that it's irreplaceable in society. And so if you can build on the the necessity of the labs and the necessity of that ethical role in the center then you have a very very important role going forward. >> Everybody welcome to the health section of Moonshots brought to you by Fountain Life. You know we talk about AI on this Moonshot podcast all the time. One of the most important things AI is going to be able to do for you besides educating your kids and helping you with your taxes is making sure that you're living a healthy lifestyle that you get a chance to get to 100 plus. I'm here today with Dr. Don Mucalem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Don, a pleasure. >> Great. >> You know, the thing that people are concerned about most about living to 100

[02:00:01] or 120 is their cognitive abilities. making sure they don't have dementia and uh the numbers about dementia are problematic. Uh can you share what you've learned? >> Such an important point and you're right at Fountain Life, our members, the number one thing people are most concerned about is losing their brain health, forgetting the name of their child, forgetting the face of their loved one. We know that when it comes to dementia, the conservative estimates are that 45% are entirely preventable. What was amazing is with the advanced testing we're doing at Fountain Life, one quarter of our members had advanced brain age. >> Wow. >> But what was really awesome is again back to that prevention when we partnered it with healthy living. This gives me chills. Eating healthier, moving our bodies, sleep, optimizing sleep is so important. You know what we saw? We saw that we improved that brain age by 26%. That is a big big number to show that the majority of those individuals were able actually to improve the brain age.

[02:01:00] >> And one of the things I love about Fountain is we're searching the world for the best therapeutics, the best approaches, and making sure we bring it to our members. So if having healthy brain function uh till 100 120 is important to you, check out Fountain Life. Go to fountainlife.com/per. Make sure you become the CEO of your own health. All right, now back to the episode. I'm going to take us to our final story also on education. Uh so this is the impact of AI on education really in secondary for our teens out there. Uh so let me show you this chart. Uh and it's a chart that shows that you know the problem is in the f is not in the future the problem is right now. Right? So what you're looking at is an OECD PISA score. PISA stands for program for international student assessment. It focuses on evaluating 15-year-olds across advanced economies in reading, math, and science. Reading and math are roughly flat for years, and then they start a sharp decline in most recent

[02:02:00] assessments. Uh the steepest declines in the history of the test. Science declines too, not as much. You know, uh obviously this starts before chat GPT and probably due to smartphones and social media that did the first damage. So uh Vala Afghar uh who posted this chart says it clearly quote what happens when we stop reading and writing and we start outsourcing our thinking. This is what the MIT article called cognitive surrender. Uh Salem I want to go to you first on this one. Your thoughts. So you could go down a hand ringing wo is us type of thing where we're losing uh cognitive ability, critical thinking skills, which I think is a real problem. You could look at it also on the positive side, right? We we've spent the last few hundred years highly training up our cognitive abilities to do deep problems like mathematics and and accounting and engineering etc etc. But

[02:03:01] as AI takes over a lot more of that cognitive ability, uh maybe we don't need to do that deep thinking uh and have be have that deep deep deep expertise. The generalist approach of kind of thinking about what problems to think about really become really come to the four here. I note that more than half the CEOs in Silicon Valley have a liberal arts degree because thinking about problems in different ways is the biggest uh uh strength in that particular role. So if you think about it from that perspective, I don't see this as a wo is us type of model. I think of it as a natural progression. We would expect to see this I would see if there's a response much more verbal challenging uh around a students understanding of topics and can we get that across in some decent way but I would expect to see this given what's happening in AI. Yeah, I I quoted you yesterday, Salem, to my friends Lou and Maymay. Uh, and I I said, you know, this is the transition from human doing to human being. I >> I'll just comment that I would maybe be

[02:04:02] more concerned if super intelligence weren't advancing as quickly as it is. The capabilities of frontier models are increasing far more quickly than the purported capabilities of humans are decreasing. So this is if there even is a problem at all which I don't think there is uh open pens we don't hand ringing that much over atrophying of abilities for humans in the industrialized west to be agricultural workers that much closed pen >> could you could you substitute mdash instead of pren >> yeah we'll delve into that so I I I don't worry that much about it super intelligence we're going to merge with we're going to merge with super int intelligence in a few years. This is at most, even if there is a problem at all here, which I don't think there is. It's at most like a 2 to threeyear problem until we have wearables and BCIs and full human machine mergers that make again any moral panic. Like I I think

[02:05:01] one of the themes in my mind for this episode is unnecessary moral panics. Okay, so mini moral panic, falling test scores in humans. But we're about to merge with the machines, and the machines that we merge with will be far smarter than the humans, the biological meatbody humans that were taking these outdated tests. So, who cares? >> I'm curious from our listeners, do you want to merge with the machines? Uh, I mean, it's an interesting thing, right, when this becomes available and and you know, you're the first person, Alex, I talked to about this on the concept of as we see escalating ASI, you know, we humans are are flat if not sublinear. Do we couple with the AI to be part of that ascendancy? >> Yeah, of course we do. >> I think we need to at least many people will choose to. Some people will choose not to, but many for a variety of reasons will choose to. And I think that's a great outcome. Sorry, Seline. >> No, no, I think this is exactly right. Important point. Look, we've been doing this for for thousands of years. David's

[02:06:00] wearing spectacles. Technically, he's a transhumanist, right? The minute you get a vaccination as a child, you're technically a cyborg. We've been using machines to augment the human experience and improve our lives from the beginning of town. All of a sudden is a huge acceleration of that. >> It's funny. I I see it a totally different way. But I'm surprised actually surprised. You know, See, when I see reading scores plummeting, I I don't even go to this like, "Oh, who cares? It may not even matter. We'll all upload." I'm like, "No, this is like fundamentally horrible." Like reading scores are plummeting. This is bad. And so it's obviously from social media, not from AI, by the way. way >> but look at the trajectory right like I mentioned earlier the highest literacy was like 200 years ago we've been sliding down as a long trend ever since then uh and you should expect it is as you have much more capability of AI to summarize things make sense of things etc the question is what should we do as a response to it because that's going to happen anyway fighting for the raging against the dying of the night uh with

[02:07:00] our cognitive abilities against an AI that can think faster with more access to information is a losing battle. But it goes to it goes to the being part where where the human being becomes much more uniquely qualified in the experiential nature of being alive. >> The headmaster of the school that my kids went to for middle school used to take everyone in the entire 7th grade class to an island off the coast of Maine with no phones. And they were absolutely a gasast that they would have to be disconnected for three days on an island. and they came back the happiest they'd ever been in their lives every single year. And then they killed it because they said it was inhumane to do this. And so now they they've eliminated it. But I'm like, you know, you don't know what you haven't experienced. And I worry a lot about, you know, a generation growing up and say, "This is fine. This there's nothing wrong with the way I'm living. Yeah, I'm texting every 5 seconds and I can't live without." But I but it's fine. It's like we haven't actually experienced the opposite. And until you have, you don't

[02:08:00] really have an opinion. >> Our son goes to summer camp every summer and they have no phones at the summer camp. And when he comes back, he's the most joyous human being for about 3 days until he's back in his devices. Right. >> You're not even you're not even texting full sentences. You're >> And I got I got to give a shout out to Lily here who made an unbelievable quote at this parents event we got together. She says, "When my kid has a device, I get 20% of the kid. When he doesn't have a device, I have 80% of the kid." and you're like, "Wow, pretty pretty telling commentary." But the technology is going to move forward. We have to integrate with it and then reind our humanity in that context. >> There there's a lot packed into that. But I think we discovered in the 1960s that we could create drugs that everyone's like, "Yeah, this is fine." And then they come out totally mangled for life. You can do that with electronics, too. And I I don't doubt that something will come along very soon in the age of AI that's as as addictive as the worst drug ever created that's equally mangling to the human being and they come out less happy. The whole goal here is to have really happy, really

[02:09:03] healthy, infinite longevity people. And that that's what we're after in this entire endeavor. We're not building it to to have the most addictive video game in the history of the world and and walk away from it depressed. That's not the goal. Do you guys have time to speedrun the AMA? >> Yeah, I've got like seven minutes or so I could do it real quick. >> All right, let's do it. Uh, okay. I'm gonna take the first one actually because it's something Alex and I disagree with. Is there such a thing as intellectual property in the age of AI? You know, we're going to have uh Astroteller on stage with us at the Moonshot Summit. I'm going to recall the conversation I had with Tim and Steve Jerbbertson in which at the end during ASI, if there's a patent that's filed by your competition, ASI is going to help you work around it. And I think intellectual property, while it's great, we should keep going. It's going to have far less value in the long run. That's my opinion. I'm sticking with it. Alex, you take the next one. Well, I'll offer the 5-second rebuttal, which is anyone

[02:10:01] who believes that, I invite you to publish all of your private keys on the internet. If if IP is dead, have at it. Share your private keys. >> Okay, I should have said patents, not not intellectual property in in general. >> Generated alternatives. >> Um, okay. So, I I'll pick number four. Could RSI bypass the need for massive data centers entirely? How and when does that happen? And this is from Tom Monahan 8305. I think we're seeing micro versions of this in the form of call them deepseek moments where algorithmic innovations from Chinese labs temporarily but sharply reduce the need for infrale compute. In the long term jury is still out I think as to whether the perfect model as I often think of it like what is at the end of the RSI rainbow. I I think I think it's very likely that we will discover what the perfect AI model looks like. The most perfect use of flops or ops or whatever the operative unit of compute ends up being. It will be globally

[02:11:02] mathematically provably optimal. And at that point, I think we'll know whether we need to keep doing this sort of horizontal exponential buildout and build the Dyson swarms or whether it's just so perfect, so mathematically perfect. Maybe there will be a physical integration as well that we don't need to disassemble our solar system. Maybe there will be a physical integration. Who knows? Maybe we'll find a way, say, to leverage gravity as a substrate for compute. Maybe we build a bunch of microscopic black holes that do all of our compute for us via RSI extending downward into the physical layer. So we don't need massive data centers anymore. How and when does that happen? I I think we'll know in at at most 10 years. >> See, over to you. >> I will take number two. What are the ideal outcomes for the upcoming China US summit? Um, you know, I would love a practical agreement where that makes dangerous incidents less likely. So, we have a lot of shared interests, right?

[02:12:00] Loss of control protecting infrastructure. Uh, could you create reliable communications channels? Could you do incident reporting? Uh, shared incident reporting. Those are the things I'd love to see happen because there's so much to work on to generate a collective approach towards the world of abundance than to fight about it. I I don't believe that's going to happen, but let's see. >> All right, Dave, number three is for you. >> Number three. I'm glad I got number three. I love this question. Do you think there will come a time when we have to pause AI just to understand it because we'll have no idea what it's talking about from Supreme Supreme King Sovereign. That's a pretty bold name. Um, so, uh, I love this question. You know, at MIT, if you, um, if you get a bunch of investors together at a conference, they talk to each other and have a blast and they share a lot of knowledge. Then you get two physicists together and you say, "Why don't you guys talk to each other and share ideas and have a blast?" And they have no idea what each other are working on. They literally like, "What?" And so they end up talking about politics and sports the whole time because um because the

[02:13:00] knowledge gets so deep and so disconnected. That's exactly what will happen with AI. You know, everything we build in society has a clean simplified interface on top of it. Otherwise, you can't build on top of it. And AI will be the same way. it'll be solving very very complicated things but giving it back to us in very simple buildable uh API forms or wrapper forms and so I think no is the answer I think we'll we'll it'll continually explain to us very clearly what it discovered and what it what it can do >> all right I'm going to take number seven here as we age longer what about organs that keep growing from H said50 uh so50 uh go listen to the podcast I released yesterday uh with Martin Rothblat uh Martin is building a whole set of replacement organs, heart, liver, lung, kidneys, and thymus. I'm most excited about thymus. You'll learn out why when you go to that. So, uh, as we age longer, we're going to have, you know, not one, but probably four or five different approaches to having a whole set of replacement organs. Some of them

[02:14:00] today, if they're generated from, uh, you know, humanized pigs where you've taken out the retroviruses and you change the surface antigens, but you still need imunosuppressants. The other next generation is going to be from your genome, your stem cells regrowing uh a organ for yourself. It's like, you know, you see all these Ford Model T's at car shows that are still running around. Why are they doing that? Because they've replaced every part and we can do the same thing at least for the moment except for the brain uh in humans as well. Uh Salem, >> wait, that that Martin Rothblad interview I just popped up on my feed this morning. That is just brilliant. Peter, if anyone has extra time this afternoon, >> definitely. No matter what you do, you're going to be fascinated by this interview. It's it's absolutely epic. >> Thank you. It's a short one. It's 50 minutes. It's easily consumable during your during your workout. >> Um, what's your >> Let me take the first one for number five. When will AI when when will AI develop genuine curiosity and could that be the clearest time we reach AGI? And that's from J2 C. Clearly a musical

[02:15:02] mind. Um my preferred question would be whether it helps us discover something important that we would not have investigated otherwise. That would be a better framework. I think I don't I think curiosity alone is not sufficient as a test for AGI. You want transfer, you want learning capability, you want reliable action as a potential outcome. I think there's a few other things that uh um uh come up for me when you think there's this. I'd look for uh self-directed uh work. Um um can you design sensible experiments? All sorts of things come up. Curiosity by itself. We could train a system. Dave made this point earlier. You could train an LLM to do pretty much anything. You could train it to be to be highly curious, which I think we should do and will do. Uh but that doesn't for me indicate AGI per se. >> Okay, Alex, you want to take number eight? Is that yours? I I feel like I need to offer shorter answers, half answers for six and eight with your forbearance, Peter. >> Yes. Okay. With if Dave if Dave can

[02:16:02] layer on top. >> Okay. >> Very good. Dave, let let's split the difference. So So six asks, "AI comes up with solutions to math problems, but can it discover new problems? Can it write a new list of millennial problems?" This is from Karen Ready. The answer is yes, of course. Simple heristic for hard call them millennium problems in math is can the problem be very simply stated. So minimizing the number of tokens for stating it but then does the proof require maximum tokens. So the heruristic is you want to maximize number of proof tokens divided by number of problem statement tokens and AI can absolutely generate lots of new millennium style programs. They're not scarce. Question eight asks >> I think that's your I think that's your next assignment Alex. >> Stay tuned. Question eight asks what are your thoughts on the connectto fruitfly? This is from swing and steel 8519. And so I I assume this is in reference to the Google uploaded fruitfly. You'll recall I'll cite to myself a number of months ago a company that I helped found

[02:17:01] Eon Systems announced the first multibehavior fruitfly upload actually beating by many months the Google fruitfly upload. So I'm broadly supportive of uploaded fruit flies. I think we don't upload enough fruit flies. I am not I I am not supportive of torturing uploaded non-human animals. So, I I wrote in my newsletter about fruit flies that are being forced to day trade Bitcoin. I am not supportive of forcing fruit flies to be uploaded and then day trade Bitcoin. Some of them were being forced to play doom, I am not supportive of forcing fruit flies to play doom. But I I I do think that we need to upload substantially all of our biosphere. So to the extent that uploaded fruit flies are treated well and humanely or fruitfly, I think this is terrific and we should do a lot more of them. >> Alex is the patron saint of uh of >> Dave. You want to layer anything on top? >> I'll just layer on to six. I I I agree with Alex that AI will come up with

[02:18:01] interesting Navier Stokes type problems. But I if you go to the very top of the pyramid fable 5.1 right now and just say write me a really interesting challenging problem as good as Navier Stokes that's critical to the future of humanity it will fail miserably on that prompt which tells you a lot about the role of coaching it. If you the alternate approach is say give me 10,000 ideas and then give me a process for whittling it down to the interesting ones that will work better. it still won't quite get you there, but that shows you where we are with AI right now. It's it's a really good question and it it doesn't just happen magically right now. >> All right. Uh if you're a creative, uh please send us your outro video. We'd love it and love to show it. Uh a pleasure to show this one. It's titled Moonshots Most Amazing Time Alive by K Bros. All right, guys. Enjoy this. We stand at the edge of a brand new dawn. A

[02:19:01] world once imagined is already on. A massive tsunami is starting to ride. And this is the most amazing time to be alive. Peter sees the map where the old lines end. A builder, a scout, a guide, a friend. From health to space, from cold to sky. He walks all terrain with a fearless side. Salon brings calm when the stakes are high. A steady hand, a reason why you feel the future when he speaks. Not loud, just strong. The kind that leans. Dave is fire with a starship mind. Contagious energy of the rarest kind. Like Star Trek dreams made flesh and

[02:20:02] sound. He lifts the room when he comes around that keeps both feet on the ground. Where truth and logic can be found. A geek but real precise and clear. We transform ideas into something near tomorrow in a deeper frame. System signals a different game. A Star Trek mind with a searching soul. Always reaching for the larger hole. The wave is coming wide and fast. Breaking open limits from the past. No gate can hold what light can see. Because intelligence wants to be free. Wants to be free. Flowing through minds and humanity. From a Dyson swarm to a healing light.

[02:21:02] We turn possibility into the light. A massive tsunami across the sky. And this the most amazing time to be alive. >> All right. Thank you, Kro. >> Wow, that was good, Kro. That was that was different and better and well prompted. >> Excellent. >> Yeah, I love it. >> Yeah. >> All right, gentlemen. God Almighty, uh, see you guys live in a week. Excited for that. >> All right. >> It's going to be good. >> Thank you, AWG. Safe flights home to both of you. Dave, be well, my friend. >> Thank you.