July 8th, Elon announces Grock 4.5. July 9th, OpenAI releases GPT 5.6. >> We have four American labs now at the optimal frontier. >> This is a convergence episode. >> Apple sues OpenAI for trade secret theft, accusing them of stealing trade secrets to build their upcoming AI hardware. The two companies, which were partners just, you know, literally a year and a half ago, are now in an allout legal war. I think this is uh Apple trying to slow things down while it catches up. >> Yeah, it's a pretty aggressive move and you have to be, you know, pretty hurt to to do it. >> For the first time, China Long March, which manufactures their primary launch vehicle, uh demonstrated landing of an orbital booster. >> I think we we want propulsive landings to be as competitive as possible. We really don't want it. >> Now, that's a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen. Everybody, welcome to Moonshots. This is
[00:01:01] the number one podcast in AI and exponential technologies, your front seat to the singularity. I'm here with my magnificent moonshot mates, the original four, Dave Blondon, Selis Mel, Alex Queer Gross, I'm Peter Diamandis, your host here in my homeland of Greece. Behind this uh curtain here is the beautiful Aian. All right, >> pop it open. Let's see. >> Open the curtain. Go open the curtain. You can't say that in a nut. Come on now. I'll I'll probably dumpster. You're >> you're in a secure location. >> I am in a absolutely magnificent location and just like See, Sem, where are you today? >> I'm in Barcelona at the Festival of Consciousness. >> Yes, you're still there. All right. Well, hey, you know, >> I was at a meeting at Allen and Company headquarters in in New York once. palatial ridiculous Allen and company meeting with Charlie Allen and we were in this conference room that was covered with Remington original sculptures and Norman Rockwell paintings and at one
[00:02:00] point he said hey do you want a water and the entire back curtain and wall open up and there's a like a five-star kitchen full of people with these like you know big chef hats cooking back there. He said no that's that's not for you. I'll just get you this bottle of water and close it again. >> So that's what's going on behind your curtain right there. You just don't >> No, no, no. Okay, one second. is the the the Aian over here. >> Ah, >> oh my god. >> Oh my god. >> You know, honestly, I'm sacrificing a lot to be with you guys right now. >> But hey, >> hello. Yes. >> Wow. >> Your sacrifice will be remembered, Peter. >> It's gorgeous. You know, you know, you can you know there's a lot of wealth when all you're seeing is yaks every place. It's insane. >> Um, >> not mine. >> You can swim out to those. I've seen James Bond do it. crawl the anchor chain. >> So, >> you built up your 20th century wealth. >> I tell you, I can't wait for my space yacht to happen. >> There we go. >> There is so much happening this week, guys. Everybody listening, uh we spun up
[00:03:00] this bonus episode because uh you know, it's just crazy. So, I tweeted yesterday, you know, we're obviously in the singularity living through it because robots are performing surgery. a a single SpaceX booster has been reused and refflown 36 times. We released four models in seven days and Elon casually claims SpaceX is going to be worth more than the entirety of planet Earth. You know, so I'm not exaggerating when I say there's a lot happening this week. Uh please remember our mission here at Moonshots, keep you informed, keep you up to date, keep you optimistic about the future. Um, so, uh, I think this week, Alex, is going to be your test on exactly what's going on in the world because it's kind of like Frontier Model release week, if if there was such a thing. >> Uh, for the EVELs. >> Yeah. Well, I, you know, it was not too long ago when we were releasing models like, you know, every 6 months, every 3
[00:04:00] years. Now we've got four models in seven days. It's kind of insane, isn't it? So, >> turns out the singularity isn't just vibes. >> Well, it's going to be a continuous model release. I mean, this idea of a single model being released and calling it a release, I don't know. But July 2nd, Fable 5 is re-released. July 8th, Elon announces Grock 4.5. July 9th, Open Eye releases GPT 5.6, Family Soul, Terra, Luna, and Ultra Mode. I love that. That runs four agents in parallel. July 9th, Meta shows signs of life with the release of Muse Spark. Uh so Alex uh I'll show a couple of charts here but uh without going into you know an hour long on the benchmarks help us understand what's going on with these four releases. I really want to get one of the things I'd love Dave and See uh and Alex is to help people understand how these differentiate uh and how does it impact them individually when they hear
[00:05:00] all these releases being uh being made. Um, >> for me this the zoom out is this is a convergence episode, right? We're seeing intelligence get cheaper, interfaces are becoming more human with the hand thing and AI is acquiring tools and hands. It's all happening in one week. >> Peter, can we put up the uh the artificial analysis intelligence index which I I think is the uh Yeah. Yeah. So uh for those listening, this is a scatter plot produced by uh artificial analysis. It's it's tracking their estimate. It's a composite index, sort of a meta benchmark of cost per task for each model versus the score, the the actual performance on each task. And I I would say in my mind that the headline from the past few days, which agree Peter have been absolutely incredible, is we went from a beginning of the week where we were basically the frontier was a duopoly between anthropic and open AI. And if you want to be on the frontier, you have to be using models from one of
[00:06:00] those two vendors. And now I I think this is the best of or close to the best of all possible worlds. We have four American labs now at the optimal frontier. So that's Anthropic and OpenAI, but now joined by Meta and SpaceX AI. Google, by the way, still not on the optimal frontier. Gemini 3.5 Pro reportedly delayed. Hope that Google catches up, ironically. to the optimal frontier and we get five American labs. And then if you look at this chart that you're showing and you sort of mentally draw an optimal frontier. So you want to be lowest cost, highest performance or highest accuracy across this composite, you want to be at that frontier. We have two Chinese labs, Xiaomi and Deep Seek/ uh Higher. Uh and also GLM 5.2 isn't at the optimal frontier for if you ignore open weights. If you uh if you just focus on the open weight frontier, GLM
[00:07:00] 5.2 is also at the open weight frontier. So we we're ending the week with in a world where there are at least four American labs again at the frontier. It's no longer a duopoly. And OpenAI with the GPT 5.6 release is openly promoting recursive self-improvement. They they were openly promoting that Saul, the the high-end weight class model in the GPT 5.6 series was being used to postrain Luna, the low end, as an experiment. I'll take what I can get on the experiment. Lots of other thoughts, but those are some preliminary ones. >> Dave, have you started playing with these yet? >> Uh, yeah. Yeah, pretty much across the board, except not GLM yet. still worried about code injection and but it it's it's a really compelling uh price point and also you know Alex Karp had that rant about control your own destiny which I really took to heart last week and we showed it on the podcast and um you know one of the ways you can control your own destiny is run your own model
[00:08:00] on your own hardware. Also, uh, you know, Fable 5 is just getting slower and slower and slower. And so, I think, um, anybody at the frontier is going to be sold out to the extent that they have compute and so I I suspect that the revenue will start to disperse because, you know, Fable 5 if it keeps getting slower because there's so many users trying to pile on, then you have no choice but to kind of fan out and try other things. You know, I was thinking about how I would like to explain this to everyone listening and the realization is of course these models are getting faster. They're getting more powerful. They're trending towards AGI. You know, Alex, I know you think we we've reached there already. So trending towards eventually ASI >> intelligence too cheap to meter. >> Yeah. Well, they're and they're and they are heading towards a you know, dimminimous fully demonetized cost. My realization is I think what the real moat is is no longer uh how smart they are, how cheap they are, it's their distribution. Uh and so let's take a
[00:09:01] look at the following. So when I think about how to use meta, meta is being used inside I mean sorry muse spark uh the latest model is being used inside meta inside meta's product. So meta has 3.6 six roughly 3.56 billion uh you know people daily using their products. So I think about using uh the Muse Spark inside of WhatsApp and Messenger and Instagram and Facebook. Google, you know, I know Google's hasn't been uh sort of breaking news in the last week, but when you think about Google's distribution, it's immense, right? 900 million uh in their app, 2.5 billion being reached uh globally and they're they're about to release into 2.3 billion active Apple devices with their 1.2 trillion parameter model. So Google's not being written off. I think they're going to come back and punch
[00:10:00] really hard. And then you've got, you know, Open AI with a million uh sorry, a billion monthly active users. uh and anthropic is obviously not the consumer space, it's in the uh corporate space and it's the go-to there. But would it be fair to say that we should think about the distribution of these models um their ability to reach the end user as one of the one of the moes that's going to be most important for them in the in the future? >> I know Sam has mentioned distribution as something that he cares more about than the model weights themselves. On the other hand, Sam said that before this massive open AI pivot from consumer to enterprise. I I'm not sure that distribution is actually super valuable from the economic perspective of the Frontier Labs. Why? Because consumers don't have an enormous amount of money to spend on this. That that's what OpenAI had to discover. >> That's my that's my point. I'm thinking about from the from those listening from
[00:11:00] our subscribers, how should they think about it? I I I'm thinking that they're going to use the model where they're using tech, right? They're going to use it in the application. And I mean, there's going to be the high-end user who's going to go like you, Dave, who's going to go and say, I need Grock 4.5 for this. I need, you know, 5.6. But for the average person, you're just going to use the model embedded in the application layer where you happen to be doing something. >> You're gonna end up there's a huge bifurcation coming across those two different use cases. We should talk about them separately. Go ahead, Slim. Sorry, I should cut you. >> Well, clearly we're going to end up with a Jarvis type model where you have a a request or something that you want done and that's happening inside the models already, but I think we'll personalize it where you have a separate layer that says for this task go to this model. For this task, go to this model, for this task go to that model. That's clearly going to happen very soon. It's starting. >> You're not going to say it. You're you're >> Jarvis will say it. >> Yeah. Also, these personalized movies,
[00:12:01] personalized entertainment is coming very, very soon. We'll talk about that later in the pod. But people aren't going to question the model under the covers when they start using that use case or meta or whatever. They're just going to use it by the bucket ton. Uh it it's going to be sold out. >> The bucket t >> the bucket t. >> It's a it's a digital it's a digital network. >> It's a new benchmark. >> Uh but yeah, no, Jeff's paradox is is going to be in full boore high gear. Actually, did you see that? Um, Highink said that, you know, memory chips are going to be in short supply for at least five years. So, that shows you >> decades. >> Decades. Yeah. I mean, I believe it. In fact, I'm 100% sure of it. The desire and the use cases are are on a much much steeper up co than the efficiency gains. And the efficiency gains are huge. Again, this is 100 to,000x this year in efficiency gains, but it's not enough to keep up with the demand. Uh, so I think you're right. I think um distribution is going to dominate the embedded use cases
[00:13:00] which is the vast majority of consumer use cases. Meanwhile, self-improvement, research, mechanical design, engineering, corporate use, you know, all the white collar use is going to be dominated by the best price performance model and this continual leaprogging you're seeing on the chart here. >> Yeah, I'm not sure there's an enormous amount though to of money and there I'll come back to this in a second to be made at the low end. So I I I fully buy the thesis that at the edge these models are just going to get built into the operating system. You'll have in a couple of years you'll have Fable 5ass models maybe built into just the operating system of the laptop or or other mobile device that you use. But I don't think that's going to be a money maker. And the reason why um it can on the one hand be transformative for billions of people but while on the other hand not be transformative of say the frontier is because ultimately it's going to be the profits that pay for the data centers that pay for the the high end of the frontier models that are
[00:14:00] making all the scientific and engineering discoveries. So I think there's a plausible scenario where we end up in an intelligence polarized world where at the low end everyone has some form of intelligence too cheap to me or super intelligence on their wearable that's run locally and it looks a little bit like openweight models or Gemma or something else. And then at the high end, you have these nuclearpowered data centers, superclusters that are running the the frontier of the frontier models at the high end. And those are the ones that are just producing discoveries and inventions. And we're discovering or inventing something first matters. If you don't care about privacy, you can wait. >> Great thought experiment for you guys. uh in the near-term future, like within a year, there'll be a competing use case between a US entity trying to make a movie, an AI character movie versus somebody in Europe trying to cure a disease. And both will be starved for access because we're just desperately
[00:15:01] short on access. >> Who's going to get the compute in that in that race? >> Well, it's not going to be Europe, right? Because Europe is energy starved. So they can't even afford the right now the energy for the compute to cure the disease. It's it's going to be an American Hollywood studio versus an American frontier lab developing drugs. >> You think it's going to be the consumer from Netflix who has more demand than the uh than the orphan disease looking cured? That's what you're thinking. >> That's sad. I I think it's trending that direction though. I completely agree. >> The tokens will flow. You know, the spice will flow. the the tokens will flow as I've mentioned on previously to to the maximum revenue per token and right now that looks like everything that's downstream of code generation >> but >> well the question more ties to votes you know votes matter a lot too sorry go ahead >> yeah the point I want to make a little bit earlier is I think this verticalization where uh you know Elon's got X and Z's got all of his his uh his
[00:16:00] app layers uh is an important thing that that opening eye is going to look for. We're going to talk about their, you know, their input output device with Johnny IV in a little bit. Uh, and and Claude is obviously revenuedriven in in the uh in the engineering space, but I still think that from the majority of people on the planet using it, they're going to care about the application they're using and whatever is underneath that um is going to be pretty much invisible to them. >> Yeah. Yeah, but if you ask me would I rather have the entire user base of X Meta and Google combined so about 7 billion or TSMC's fabs? Which would I rather have? I would much rather own Intel or TSMC because that's that's where it's all constrained on the supply of compute level or the space-based data centers. You know, I'd rather have Elon's launch capability or a 4 billion users. I'd rather have the launch
[00:17:00] capability because again it's all starved at the front end of the funnel >> and the the market valuations I I think reflect that Dave what I would also add is if you look at both Meta and SpaceX AI and how they both bought themselves these AI superclusters it was the same mechanism to to Peter's point they Zuck and Elon both used consumer distribution plays X on the one hand and Meta's family of apps on the other to justify an enor enormous capex buildout of these data centers and then the moment they have these data centers the the family of apps on the meta side or X on the SpaceX AI side become almost an afterthought and they move down the stack to selling compute as a service to hosting potentially in in the case of MetaMP compute soon already in the case of SpaceX AI's superclusters to selling their compute to the other frontier labs and then trying to move upstack to the to the AI. So just to tie a bow on the discussion of how valuable is
[00:18:00] distribution. I think distribution from the company's perspective not from the consumer's perspective is enormously valuable as almost a bootstrap to justifying to capital markets. Why should I Zuck I Elon be able to spend tens to hundreds of billions of dollars building out these AI clusters? But then the moment those clusters are built you turn around and the distribution actually isn't that valuable. This is a chart I put up here comparing GPT 5.6 Soul, Grock 4.5, Muse Spark, and Claude Fable 5 against a number of benchmarks. I what we've seen over the last, you know, year and a half as we've been discussing this on the pod is just a continuous movement up and to the right, so to speak, or down up down to the right as the case may be. Um, and convergence. Um, at the end of the day, are we going to see I mean until one of these models sort of breaks out and hits recursive self-improvement towards ASI, are we going to see them continually
[00:19:00] just leaprogging each other leaprogging each other? Is that just the the future we're expecting? >> I certainly hope so. I I hope so. I expect so. And the recent actions by the White House suggest that there may even be a a smoothing function wherein if one model gets too far ahead of the others and surprises not just the remember strategic surprise can take multiple forms. You can have a frontier lab strategically surprising the other frontier labs. But given that the frontier labs are also ahead of the US government, any frontier lab that's sufficiently surprising to the other frontier labs will also probably at this point be strategically surprising to the US government. And the US government with its monopoly on force has the power to step in as we've just seen over the past few weeks and basically slow things down locally enough for the other frontier lives to catch up which is exactly what we saw happen with Fable 5V open AI's GPT 5.6 sex >> which I think is a better way of getting strategic equivalents across these right
[00:20:00] rather than governments taking a piece of things etc etc but when I look at these benchmarks by the way I think of it more like a map rather than a scoreboard right because if you tweak your reasoning budget everything changes if you tweak your uh your rationale and your use case everything changes so if you change your harness everything changes so I think I see it more in that frame uh and the models will just keep getting better and better and the cheaper and cheaper which is the amazing part >> and we also if I might just add Peter we also see the other headline in my mind is we see open AI again trying to become anthropic faster than anthropic can become open AI so we we don't have a slide for this but uh OpenAI also as part of the GPT 5.6 released released something called chat GPT work. I don't know if you guys have played with it. I've been playing with it quite a bit. The the the new chat GPT native app, I'll speak, you know, break the fourth wall directly to OpenAI. The the native app is a hot mess. Uh it it looks like OpenAI was sort of slavishly trying to
[00:21:02] copy the the the clawed app uh with its different modes. It has like the the code mode versus the co-work mode versus dot dot dot. looks like just sort of a a cargo cult version of the claude app. I was hoping to see out of this new app that it had been rumored for a number of weeks that OpenAI would release a super app that elegantly unified all of its different work streams and unified the Atlas browser, all of the computer use assistant stuff, codecs, etc. That's not really what we saw. I I for the life of me I don't understand what the point of the toggle between chat GBT work and chat GBT codeex is. Seems uh like a little bit of a placebo other than maybe enabling a new canvas mode or maybe it's a rebranding of canvas. So message to OpenAI please get your consumer client app native app act together and make this whole thing as elegant as it deserves to be. But it I think this is emblematic of OpenAI trying to basically
[00:22:01] look end to end like anthropic because Anthropic was the first to realize the value of token revenue or revenue per token maxing and OpenAI has developed religion. It's dropped Sora. It's dropped all of its other consumer plays. You won't hear about adult mode anymore in chat GBT from OpenAI because they're so focused on enterprise. And I I think their their app reflects that. >> So the cloud app is the same way. It's got toggles between code, um, co-work, and chat. >> Yeah. >> And, and in the age of AI, you're like, why why am I toggling anything? Why don't I tell what I'm doing? This is insane. So, we're in this really weird transition phase right now between old software and new software. And yeah, it's kind of ugly. It's very Rube Goldberg. And also, the other thing that's going on right now is all the big labs are cranking out huge amounts of product using AI to create the product, but it's not as good as finecrafted human code. But they're also very reluctant to go back and fix it because in the next iteration of model it'll be self-fixing anyway. So it's it's a
[00:23:00] complete fool's errand to put a thousand engineers on trying to you know perfectly tune it when you know it's going to be self-fixed very very soon. So we're kind of living with very crappy machine generated rapid out the door garbage products right now. But it's a very transitional phase. >> Well they're r they're rushing. This is a competition between them and they're rushing products out. One of the products they did put out this week that I played with uh and I show a short demo here which I've loved is GPT live. So they have full duplex voice uh that can do simultaneous uh translation and support you in different ways. And you know, one of the conversations we've had in the past is rather than typing at your AI in the future, we're going to be speaking until we get our, you know, our BCI, our neoortex implants, and then we'll be thinking, but let me play this example of uh of duplex voice. It is smooth. It works really well. If you haven't played with it, you know, go to your your chat GPT app. It's up live right now. All right, let me hit play.
[00:24:00] >> You can use it for free. >> Yeah, very easy to use. >> Okay, >> let's take a look. Uh, this is an example where someone who's not a native English speaker is asking Chad GPT to help correct him along the way. All right, let's take a listen. >> Please just jump in immediately to correct me. >> Absolutely. I'll keep it gentle and jump in as we go. >> Cool. Cool. Cool. >> Whenever you're ready. >> So, let's go. Uh, I'm a student. Uh, I'm planning a trip to San Francisco. I have never went to this city before. So, >> tiny tweak. >> I've never been to this city before. Oh yeah. Yeah. >> And maybe Yeah. >> Okay. Go ahead. >> Well, maybe polish it as I've never been to San Francisco before. >> Okay, that's much more natural. >> I That's pretty extraordinary. I mean, you know, >> it is what all the science fiction movies promised us. It's here. That level of voice interactivity, it is it's a beautiful thing. And I bet you it's
[00:25:00] going to flip a lot of people out. They're going to become emotionally attached to their AIs. They're going to think they're conscious and intelligent because they sound that way. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. It reminds me a lot of, you know, when when Facebook started, uh it would have been very very easy for a lot of other internet companies to become Facebook, but they didn't really want to cross the line into social chat and social media and all this like all the complexity and the the potentially bad PR backlash. So now OpenAI probably won't want to cross a lot of those lines, too. So it's a field day for people who want to take this new interface and launch it into all kinds of social use cases and other vertical use cases that they understand really well. You know, a lot of people are like, well, won't OpenAI just do that. Won't Johnny IV just come and do that the next day. But I think I think it'll be very much like Facebook where a lot of the bigger very profitable tech companies are not going to touch many of the use cases of this just because they don't want the the PR and the complexity. And so it should be a field day, but this should be in every device, every washing machine, every every in
[00:26:00] the world everywhere within six months. It should be I but it's another thing compared to compared to what X has or Google has. This is so much better. >> Yeah, it's it's >> reminding me of the transition from telephones from CB radios where they had to say uh over and out 104 etc. and give you and there was an interaction tax and that interaction tax is now removed and this will really really uh help these because it's going to appear way more smarter than it is. >> Yeah, for sure. >> This was the technology that OpenAI used to call by die birectional uh and I I think this is a very positive sign. I'm frankly quite glad that OpenAI still has the cycles to pursue releases like this instead of just purely chasing Anthropic on Codegen. I don't see releases like this from Anthropic, for example. So, I think it's great that OpenAI is still pursuing the full realization of multimodal. I'll point out though that the Chinese labs like Alibaba have even more advanced versions of this. If you
[00:27:01] saw the release of Alibaba's Juan Streamer, you can go check out online the demos of one streamer. It is this, but it's not just ultra low latency audio. It's ultra- low latency birectional audio and video where you're talking to a hallucinated person on the other end where the video is being generated in real time together with audio and that that's I think where this is going. I think this is all going to go to the extent OpenAI and other labs aren't just totally distracted with codegen and enterprise use cases. It's going to go to fully birectional audiovisisual magic mirror streaming that you could just talk to and in real time it'll generate whatever you want. >> By the way, a great application of this that they also demonstrate was real time translation. So you can be having a conversation and it's translating behind the scenes. So every event we go to now should have this kind of translation into a multitude of languages. there's no reason for I mean now's the question
[00:28:02] you know do you teach your kids another language do you teach them for the culture do you teach them for the brain development because we're live the babelish is here uh and it's open AI right now >> it is it wants to be built into a wearable >> yeah exactly and that's what I was going to say like how much of this is driven by Johnny IV and what he needs for the new device he's working on because it really did cross the uncanny valley and it becomes just a a Jarvislike experience very similar to when Steve Jobs did Pixar. You know, prior to Pixar, uh you could generate really cool graphics and all the video geeks and and and computer geeks loved them, but there was no mainstream, you know, Toy Story type movies. Then it crossed a threshold where Steve Jobs pushed it over a level and all of a sudden animated movies became a massive industry because it just crossed the cool valley. this this is across the cool valley whereas the prior voice models were just behind the cool valley and I suspect Johnny IV was saying look I need this this is a key
[00:29:01] part this is the only interface to the Jarvis of the future which I'm building >> speaking of Johnny Ives it's our next story Apple sues openai for trade secret theft so this is a story that just dropped a couple hours ago and it's a real bombshell for a lot of different reasons so Apple $4.6 $6 trillion company uh famous for safeguarding its uh its secrets like Fort Knox and I don't know if you've known people at Apple, I have. They can't talk. They can't go present at conferences. They're, you know, everybody signed an NDA. They're all in their little unique bubble. Uh they just sued OpenAI in federal court accusing them of stealing trade secrets to build their upcoming AI hardware, i.e. Johnny Ives. The two companies which were partners just you know literally a year and a half ago are now in an allout legal war. So we have OpenI going from uh Elon Musk lawsuit to an Apple lawsuit. So here the details. Apple filed a 41page complaint in the US District Court of Northern California
[00:30:02] alleging trade secret theft and breach of contract. Uh here's a couple of money quotes from that filing. quote, "At every level, from members of its technical staff to the chief hardware officer and in coordination with business partners, OpenAI has been stealing Apple's trade secrets." Quote, "Open AAI's nent hardware business now rests on the shakist of foundations, rotten to its core by its illegal uh reliance on misappropriate trade secrets." Um, two people named in the suit. Uh, Tang Tan, Open EI's chief hardware officer, 24-year Apple veteran accused of using Apple's code names and recruiting. Uh, Tang Tan ran iPhone and Apple Watch designs. And Changu, Open Eyes technical staff accused of downloading dozens of confidential files and instructing an Apple employee on how to bypass security. And um Johnny Ives hardware startup uh at OpenAI which uh was bought for 6.4 billion just last May
[00:31:02] uh is named uh Iive is not himself named. So um a lot going on here and I'm wondering if they knew this was coming and maybe this was part of their delaying their IPO cuz having this hanging over your head is a big deal. >> I I doubt this is related to IPO timing. Remember also there was there were rumors over the past few weeks that OpenAI was considering suing Apple for Apple not properly promoting at least properly as seen by Open AI ChachiBT within its devices. >> So I I think this is it's sad. I think we'll know probably more if this proceeds to the discovery stage about what's going on. I on the Apple side I would love to see Apple moving much more quickly on hardware for AI. Maybe now that John Turnis is the the new CEO, maybe we'll see Apple finally moving quickly. I think it's sort of sad that Apple, given its leadership position on
[00:32:00] the hardware side, has been hemorrhaging all of these wearable and smart glasses and design leaders to Open AI and otherwise. I think that the fact that Johnny I've left Apple uh and then joined OpenAI ultimately I think speaks to Apple having lost what could what could and should have been an enduring leadership advantage on being the substrate the consumer substrate for AI. So we'll see but I don't want to prejudge this one. We'll see what happens if this gets to discovery. >> I mean this is really a fight for the post smartphone device marketplace between them, right? We're going to see Google has been announcing their glasses open eyeing obviously and Apple has been hinting they've not released any designs yet. Sele what are your thoughts here? I mean you and I both knew people have known people at Apple uh very very secretive as an organization. >> I I think this is uh Apple trying to slow things down while it catches up. >> Yeah. I noticed they uh they filed in
[00:33:01] Northern California too and I was it's very very hard to win a case like this in Northern California. In fact, you almost have to be desperate to file one of these. Uh and uh but according to the internet, you they didn't have the option to file in Texas. It's much much easier to protect your intellectual property in Texas than it is in in California. And if you look at the the history of Northern California, virtually every startup is somebody who left some prior company with intellectual property. So California is very reluctant to slow down that innovation and startup cycle. >> So it Apple has to be really desperate. Also, uh, it very it's very hard to recruit if you get a reputation kind of like Microsoft had back in the day. Um, very hard to recruit if people feel like, "Yeah, then you're going to sue me later in my career. I don't even want to start down that path." And so, what they're trying to do is hold on to what they've got, which they believe, you know, really is their property, uh, and keep more people from running out the door, but at the expense of new people coming in the door. So, it's yeah, it's a pretty aggressive move and you have to
[00:34:00] be, you know, pretty hurt to to do it. >> We're going to see. I mean, this is a scrappy company. Open AAI against a juggernaut that is been traditionally very slow moving. So, anything else you want to say on this one, Alex? >> I'll just note OpenAI isn't uh perhaps the the smallest company at at this point. It it's it's about to either at or about to cross a trillion dollar valuation. So maybe as as counted by the markets, it's >> 20 to 25% the size of Apple, but growing far more quickly, at least as measured by market valuation over time. So there there's a universe where maybe Open AI, this is not investment advice, it's not forward-looking advice, but there's a universe where in the next couple of years, Open AI could cross the market value of Apple. That that has got to have crossed Apple's mind. This episode is brought to you by Blitzy, autonomous software development with infinite code context. Blitzy uses thousands of specialized AI agents that think for
[00:35:02] hours to understand enterprise scale code bases with millions of lines of code. Engineers start every development sprint with the Blitzy platform, bringing in their development requirements. The Blitzy platform provides a plan, then generates and pre-ompiles code for each task. Blitzy delivers 80% or more of the development work autonomously while providing a guide for the final 20% of human development work required to complete the sprint. Enterprises are achieving a 5x engineering velocity increase when incorporating Blitzy as their preIDE development tool, pairing it with their coding co-pilot of choice to bring an AI native SDLC into their org. Ready to 5x your engineering velocity? Visit blitzy.com to schedule a demo and start building with Blitzy today. >> Our next story is a fun one. It's actually a tweet. Uh so a couple of days ago on July 8th, Elon responds to Thomas
[00:36:03] AIXDMY uh in a tweet saying, quote, "You don't seem to understand that SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals." So I thought that'd be a fun conversation for us. Uh let me unpack that a moment. So the value of earth if you want to say it at least of all owned material wealth by humans is estimated about $600 trillion today. These are it's real estate factories commodities inventory. You can increase it to 1.7 quadrillion if you add the global balance sheet of assets and uh financial assets stocks bonds and so forth. So um the vision that that obviously Elon has is for compute um or capturing uh a sign you know Cardartesef level one energy in orbit uh and maybe owning a planet uh Alex you had a particular terminology
[00:37:00] >> planetar planet yes >> for a quadrillionaire who owns a planet >> you know there's been this fascinating debate going on in the financial news about is Is SpaceX really worth $2 trillion? Some people coming out and saying, "No, no, no. It's going to be $10 trillion very soon." And others saying, "Oh my god, it's so over inflated." Uh, and it's really hard for people to understand the scope of Elon's vision of what he is planning to do. Uh, the guy is thinking a 100 moves ahead and 100 or a thousandx bigger than anybody else. Who wants to jump in on this one? >> I do, >> William. Go ahead. >> Um, yeah, this is this is classic EXO thinking, right? Which is can you drop the marginal cost of supply and he's using one breakthrough which is reasonable rocket launches which is his niche to collapse the marginal cost in communication and satellites in connectivity and compute manufacturing even once you get it up there. So all of
[00:38:00] these become software like businesses when you can reduce the cost of doing space and he's leveraging that fully. I think we're likely to see uh going p sort of uh pulling the thread on the planetar terminology. I think we're likely to see quadrillionaires before we enter a postc capitalist system. And I'm I I think the the elephant in this particular room is what does capitalism 2.0 or post capitalism even look like? And there there is I think a world where we get human ownership for some definition of ownership of of entire planets before we get to some sort of capitalism 2.0 or post capitalist state. >> I mean the uh the outer space treaty specifically states you can't own a heavenly body. Um there's debate about whether you can own asteroids, but >> many challenges outer space treaty and and amendments uh and revisions subsequent to it like Artemis Accords do enable a private American corporation to
[00:39:02] operate and and through operations substantially or or let's say de facto own a large fraction of Mars for example or the moon. Outer space treaty plus Artemis totally allows that. So I think >> I actually I actually with Chris and Eric Anderson, we wrote the legislation in Luxembourg and then in the United States for ownership of asteroid materials taking into account. So I spent a lot of picks on this one. Um there's >> do you still think Peter asteroids are the the way to go versus the moon or Mars? >> So the moon is going to be the near-term supplier, but asteroids when you get them out of the gravity wells, right, you've got very the nice thing about asteroids is they're fairly concentrated or bodies. So you know comb carbonous condrites which are dirty ice balls are basically ice. It's water and hydrogen and you can you can hydrayze that. You got rocket fuel and breathable oxygen. And then metallic condrites are nickel iron and platinum group metals platinum,
[00:40:01] palladium, aridium, osmium. And again you can smelt those very quickly. So they're going to be in free space and so moving them around is a lot easier than getting them off the moon. And you can go and claim one of these things ultimately. You know, there are some of these these ora bodies out there worth quadrillions of dollars to get to your quadrillionaire level ownership right there. >> Why do you think Elon is basically to first order completely ignoring the asteroid belt versus the moon? >> You're absolutely you're absolutely right and I, you know, I openly disagreed with him. I said, you know, if I'm going to go I'm going to follow more of the Jeff Bezos and he and I were both mentored by Gerard K. O'Neal at Princeton University where you go to the moon first, you use that as a base of operations because you got materials there. You can build mass drivers there and then you go into free space. You know, you build large rotating colonies there, you mine the asteroids. I think he's got the romantic frontier mindset of going to Mars, but once you enter the
[00:41:02] gravity well of Mars, you got to use energy to get back out. So, he likes gravity wells. How do you feel, Alex? >> What do What do you What do you think? I think by the time we are mining I if and when we're mining the asteroid belt at large like at scale we'll probably have self-replicating vonoyman probes at which point the rest of the solar system is our oyster anyway like if you're going to go after the asteroid belt you might as well start mining Jupiter. Jupiter has a lot more mass and if you're going to build the Dyson >> those timelines are massively uh different there. Asteroid mining is relatively easy. >> You want you want to come back to Earth? Is that >> Yeah, I'd like by the time we get to asteroid mining, we'll have nano assembly and we can assemble any uh substance we want. We don't have to go out to get asteroids to mine it. We'll just have molecular assembler. >> Well, you need for the Dyson form, Sel. That's the whole point. I mean, you don't want Surely you're you're not
[00:42:00] implying. Surely surely stop calling me surely. You don't want to to disassemble Earth to build the Dyson swarm. I'm sure you'd much rather part with Jupiter. >> I I'll use my favorite comment. I I want to make my favorite Alice comment was if you squint, you'll see the molecular manufacturing as nano assembly will get you there for faster than trying to get out to the thing and bring back an asteroid. >> Listen, uh the technology to mine asteroids exists today. It's not a hard thing to do. It honestly is not. asteroids are relatively close by from an energy perspective. We have near earth approaching asteroids and these things. I mean right now people need to realize that every every gram of fuel ever launch ever used in a spacecraft has been brought from the surface of the earth. Every gram of fuel. And if you're going out to the moon, Mars, you know, Pluto, you have to bring the fuel along with you. And you know, it's like it's like if you're traveling from New York to Cal, you know, to San Francisco in a
[00:43:02] car, you'd have to bring either the batteries or, you know, a tanker full of of c of gasoline to get you there. Uh, if you could set up these gas stations in space, and I remember when I spoke to Elon about this when we started Planetary Resources as a company, and he goes, you know, I would, yes, I would buy the fuel from you in orbit, but you're too early. You're too early. And he was right. I I think the the insitu resource utilization ISRU angle is probably on balance a little bit more attractive on the moon or Mars where you just especially Mars where you have a lot of different raw feed stocks potentially than on the moon or in the asteroid belt. But I I think time will tell. I I I do think for the record the the reason that he's not so fixated uh and and as is the case with myself as well on the asteroid belt is just I if you can if you can tackle the asteroid belt then you can tackle Jupiter and Jupiter's a lot more interesting than the asteroid belt.
[00:44:00] >> Well, let's continue on for a few on the space theme here. Uh we've got Starship flight 13 uh coming up uh very shortly uh next week. Um, and it's going to be, we don't know yet what they're going to be doing on flight 13. It's uh it's going to be V3 of both uh the booster and and the ship. Uh, we're waiting for them to show refueling in orbit. We're waiting for them to see a recapture of the ship, not just the booster and reflying. The other thing that happened this week is that uh SpaceX filed for 100,000 low Earth orbit V3 uh spacecraft for Starlink. Um pretty cool. Uh these spacecraft are quote supporting billions of AI powered devices with extremely low latency multi- gigabit symmetrical throughput. Um so that's going to be great. We have 10,700 uh you know uh Starlink V2 spacecraft in orbit right
[00:45:00] now. >> It's a race to a million LEO objects. >> If I had one takeaway from our last three podcasts where we had Will Marshall and we had Philip Johnston like these these absolute space geniuses, the value of low Earth orbit where there's very thin atmosphere and the self-cleaning effect that comes from that is massive and it's whoever claims it first gets to keep it. And so it's a real foot race to a relatively scarce you think about mining asteroids or tearing apart Jupiter but that that gives you abundant materials but the the at least in the short term uh low earth orbit you know just what a couple hundred miles of height or or you know radius that is usable where it's selfcleing. Remember, Philip gave us that great use case where the US, for some insane reason, launched 100,000 needles into space to reflect radio waves. And it took until this year for those to selfcle back out. And you he was saying that very small objects get hit by the solar wind more and they move to elliptical orbits and then they
[00:46:00] eventually touch the atmosphere and then they incinerate and come back down. But while they're elliptical, they're terrible. >> Yeah. I was fascinated by that to me. 100,000 satellites are uh they're positioned at 325 km and 475 km is the orbits that they filed for. >> So I think people are going to be surprised though as launch costs continue to plummet and I was chatting about this in our group chat. I think we're going to start to see very low earth orbit VLOO orbits become more and more attractive which are pretty exotic by today's standards. Right now, you don't, for example, design low Earth orbit satellites for lots of atmospheric exposure. We could start to see, as launch costs plummet, a a regime, pretty exotic one from a satellite design perspective, where satellites are tasting the atmosphere where we could afford for them. >> The point you're making, the point you're making is that if it's cheap enough and they only have a instead of being in orbit for 3 to 5 years, they're
[00:47:01] up there for 3 to 5 months, >> that's fine. you're throwing them away constantly. >> They start to look like high altitude balloons basically at orbital velocities where we could afford if if they're only going to be up for a few months, they could be air breathers, air breathing satellites, which we've never really seen before, but it starts to blur the distinction between high altitude balloons and low earth orbit satellites. I think we're going to see a lot more of that. >> Yeah. And part of the point there is it becomes very cheap to give them a little more fuel and boost them again. So if after 6 months you're like, you know, I want to keep this up another 6 months. You just have to turbocharge it a little bit uh to keep it going another 6 months. So then it's self-cleaning if you fall asleep, but it keeps going if you actively keep boosting it. And I I think that's a great design. Uh it solves the whole, you know, dirty space issue. >> This has got to get dirtier before it gets cleaner. I I think in this case, >> here's another space first. Uh this is out of China. So there have been three vehicles that have been reused thus far.
[00:48:00] All three are US. For the first time, China Long March, which manufactures their primary launch vehicle, uh demonstrated a landing and uh not reuse yet, but landing of an orbital booster. Let's take a quick look at this. Looks >> looks an awful light like >> Yeah, looks familiar. Um, so this is again this is uh China's Long March 10B booster. It landed on July 10th. Uh for comparison, it is uh slightly shorter, substantially wider, and in terms of payload, about the same as a Falcon 9. But let me just give uh Elon his uh his
[00:49:00] appropriate kudos here. Uh Falcon 9 has had 580 booster reflights in total, which is insane. It's been done 580 times. And uh just this week, another first booster 167 B 1067 uh was refflown on its 36th mission on July 11th. Crazy. I mean uh I remember when Elon first announced his plans to reuse it and Lockheed and Boeing and all the traditional aerospace players said it's not going to happen. He doesn't know what he's talking about. And when it landed, I said that's the first nail in the coffin of the traditional aerospace industry. Yeah, >> I think we want propulsive landings to be as competitive as possible. To the point of a number of podcasts that we've had over the past few episodes, we really don't want a heavy launch monopoly. To the extent there is one, I I think it's probably quite helpful in the style of for all mankind for China
[00:50:01] to be challenging the west's namely Elon's heavy launch monopoly. And we just if if we're going to colonize and develop the solar system, we need many many heavy launch providers. And to make that economical, we need propulsive landings everywhere. >> Well, we're going to have Jared Isaacman, the the NASA administrator on this podcast in a couple of weeks. Super pumped about it. All four of us will have a chance to have a conversation. I've known Jared for for quite some time. Uh, and you know, my my greatest hope for him, because he's arguably, I think, the greatest administrator we've ever had, uh, in terms of leading us into the future is he needs to have Congress continue to fund NASA. And what allows Congress to fund NASA? China. >> Yes. >> I can't wait for that discussion. It's going to be a lot. So many questions queued up for Jared. >> Yeah, it's going to be it's going to be amazing. All right. Um, continuing on a little muse in the robot world this
[00:51:00] week. Our friend uh Brent Borick uh revealed his 1X Neo hand. So, here's the deal. Um, 1X unveiled a completely redesigned hand for its Neo home humanoid. Uh, it's a substantial leap forward. 25 degrees of freedom, 22 in the fingers and palm, three in the wrist, tendon driven. Uh in comparison, the human hand has 25 functional degrees of freedom uh with 27 joints and 30 intrinsic muscles inside the hand and in the upper forearm. Uh and here's the best part. Neo's hand is waterproof, so Neo can wash its hands when it's doing its cooking for you. Uh Burnt's goal is to produce 10,000 of these in 2026. Uh let's take a quick look at the video and then I'd love to have everybody's reaction to it. So, you know, drinking glass of water or
[00:52:02] picking it up ringing a light bulb and why they smash the light bulb. I have no idea. >> I don't know either. H >> that that thing is brilliant. Absolutely >> Yeah. You know what's amazing to me is you remember when we were touring and Burnt was showing us the the amount of material science they need to do to make these things work, including, you know, they they they have to manufacture the fabric that the robot wears as a as a special project. But he was incredibly secretive about the tendon material. But that's their own proprietary material and it has some unbelievable properties. you know, it's like 100 times stronger than steel per per unit weight, but also it doesn't it doesn't stretch over time, like even a tiny little bit. And, you know, it it's running through those tubes. It's actually frictionless inside those tubes, so it doesn't need to be lubricated in any way, which is one of
[00:53:02] the reasons you can, you know, have it wash its own hands and not wash oil away. There's so many parts of that thing that are brand new and brilliant and innovative, and man, did it come out incredible. >> Well, he's supposed to be releasing it to the public. um before the end of the year. I have mine on order. We'll see what it looks like. >> I have mine on order, too, Peter. We We were supposed to get ours this summer or I think in in the first quarter. When do you think you're going to get yours? >> Uh I honestly as soon as I hear their shipping, I will be knocking on on Burnt's door uh for mine. Um a friend of mine ordered five of them uh for his uh for his operations from the Abundant Summit. And uh this year, just so everybody knows, we're going to have uh uh we're going to have the CEO of Figure. Um uh Mr. Adcock is going to be on stage with us in March. So excited about that. We'll bring the robots back. Uh and you know, this is a it's been a
[00:54:00] two-way race to some degree between Figure and and Optimus. I think 1X is is vying for number three. Uh Peggy Johnson just went uh announced taking her robot company public. So, a lot of action. And we just heard this week as well uh a demonstration of a of a gallbladder resection using robots. >> Did you see that, Alex? >> I I certainly did. Uh so, this was the the first humanoid robot performing uh the surgery on a non-human animal. uh as opposed to non-human robots to sele your your hobby horse performing these surgeries. So, it's been a great week for robotics. On the other hand, every week in the singularity is a great week for robotics. I I'll point out on the the 1x story, hands are hard. That that's what people say in the industry. Hands are hard in in part because the number of degrees of freedom and the density of degrees of freedom per unit volume is especially high in the hand versus say the limbs or the head or the torso. And you see lots of other
[00:55:00] competitors exploring different modalities to handle hands. Like you see Brett and Figure exploring palm cameras to try to achieve sensing and to try to achieve positive transfer from computer vision over to tactile sensation. You see 1X not doing that. Uh using more sensitive force sensors to achieve sensation. I I'm super excited and super glad that humanoid robotics, not just for the enterprise and not just for industrial factories, but for the home and for domestic applications, is turning into a horse race as well. I think that's exactly the sci-fi future that many of us want to be living in. I'd like to see many more western domestic robotics companies. China right now has 150 plus humanoid robotics companies. The West is falling behind. So if if you're listening and you're interested in robotics, just start a robotics company. And if you're in the west, that is more western humanoid robotics company. >> You're totally right. And also I want to
[00:56:00] make a really narrow point. You know, the the way those tendons work is exactly the way your bicycle brake works where you know the the wire goes inside the tube, but it doesn't have to be fixed. So you can create motion on the other end. that squeezes the brake on your on your bike wheels and it's totally free form in space, which is why you see those tendons, they don't look like they're locked down, but it works beautifully well, but that mechanism can be shrunk for all kinds of micro assembly jobs. It doesn't have to be a hand. And and so Burnt has proven that not not only is it an incredibly dextrous way to move things around, but the for because there's no stretch inside the tendon, the force feedback or the feeling of pressure when you're picking up a little screw comes right back through the tendon. So you don't have to have cameras and sensors in the fingertips. >> Interesting. >> To feel that you're picking something up. >> Is such a so such an I have to hear your rant on this one, please. No, in fact, you'll hear me say the opposite. Uh, in this case, humanoid is great because the
[00:57:02] opposable thumb has been around for, you know, millennia and it's such a powerful model. The minute you can get this, you basically have horizontal labor dexterity across so many applications. So, I wouldn't change a thing about the hand. Humanoid shapes and all that. Give it extra arms, fine, but the hand is really cool. >> Okay. You you don't want uh polyacty. You don't want like six or seven. >> Maybe six fingers, you know, then you're into princess bride territory, which would be kind of cool. >> Organica >> or any of those. Yeah. Be kind. But I think I think it's it's so good that they've achieved this level and I thought the wine glass was perfectly apppropo. So wonderful. Love it. >> So, you know, we've had friend of the pod Ben Horowitz write about and talk about the notion that hardware is hard. And I I'm just curious, how does someone like Burnt compete with the likes of of Elon, right? And getting into the home,
[00:58:01] which is so uh so diverse versus in a factory uh is a is a challenging place to start. So, you know, how do you think about shipping this kind of complex technology uh and and doing it reliably and not giving yourself a bad rap? Dave, what do you think about that? >> Uh, you know, this is such a field day for uh people who jump into this space because yeah, five years ago, hardware is hard. It's capital intensive. Where are you going to find the money? Now there's so much venture money, you know, because Brett Adcock proved you can get a $40 billion valuation. So all every venture capitalist in the world wants to get into this game. And and so now the capital to build out your own supply chain, you know, historically you you'd need billions of dollars to build out your own supply chain for one of these things. But now the billion dollars are suddenly available. And in fact, the West Coast VCs are actively looking to write multillion and billion dollar checks because because their funds are so big, that's the only way they can get them deployed. So, it's it's a great
[00:59:00] time to kind of flip the logic that that existed 5 years ago and say, "Yeah, you know, but you know, you have to just be fearless about building out your own supply chain and and you know, your own parts." And you you saw the back of 1x Robotics and also the back of Brett Adcock's, you know, Figure Robotics. We weren't allowed to video back there, but they've literally built the entire from raw materials supply chain through final finished product. >> Yeah, >> that's what you need to do. Alex, do you think that the models are going to allow the average person here to begin designing their own hardware, their own robots to say, you know, and this was the point that I think uh uh we heard that rant about last week, um that, you know, all of this design work and engineering work is being embedded in the models. Uh and it would allow an individual to say, "Hey, I want to design my own hand. Would you help me design it? And now, would you help me print it out there? We're already there. If if you look at the frontier models like Fable 5, you can there there are folks out out there already bragging
[01:00:01] they're they're embodying Fable 5 in robots and Fable 5 has pretty good understanding of physical embodiment and the degrees of actuation, CAD modeling, everything that you need in order to to design or have an AI at least train or pre-train or post-train a VLA model or uh or a policy for controlling a robot And you could do that right now already at your home without running a multi-billion dollar lab. Those capabilities of training embodied intelligent models have already been radically democratized by the frontier models that already understand to some extent the physical world. So yes, I I think we're in a position now where anyone can just go build you. You can just build things. Uh and in this case, you can just build robots without needing >> you at least design things. >> You and actually build. I mean, the the models will happily like feed you all the supply chain information you need, tell you put A on top of B, attach C to
[01:01:01] D, and help you build everything from a robot hand to um nuclear fuser in in some cases in your basement. You you can do quite a bit as a hobbyist these days. >> Yeah, that's the big that's the big change actually. If you think about just as a case study, winding an electric motor, like build building your own electric motor from raw wire, that would have been insane 15 years ago. Now, OneX and Figure do it in the back room habitually. And then a lot of other people are starting to do it too. And and so when you look at the actuators on that hand, they're all custom. You know, the the underlying motors are custom. What changed there? Well, the automated machinery like, you know, the the CNC milling machines and the um and the auto lathes th those are already little robots that allow you to bring this stuff inhouse and effectively take raw wire and come out with a motor. But that applies to, you know, all these other parts as well. 3D printing, all kinds of things that you can build inhouse now that would have been insane, you know, five or 10 years ago. And so, yeah, it's all it's all coming back into your
[01:02:01] integrated internal supply chain from just raw materials. So, then you add, you know, the humanoid robots and the upcoming robots on top of that and it's like it's just like the Gigafactory, you know, many many different entrepreneurs building their own Gigafactory for different different products. And by the way, if if we're if we're going to just quickly, if we're going to get humans on Mars in the next 5 years, as Elon says, and a moon colony in the next 10 years with tens of thousands of people, this is precisely what the I think is going to be at the center of that industrial ecology. It's going to be hybrid humanoid robots that operate both in the home and in dangerous environments and in industrial settings. There's going to be tremendous positive transfer between all of these. And this is how we get the moon and Mars >> and they work in space. Yep. Yep. >> Yeah. >> Everybody, welcome to the health section of Moonshots brought to you by Fountain Life. You know, we talk about AI on this Moonshot podcast all the time. One of the most important things AI is going to be able to do for you besides educating your kids and helping you with your taxes is making sure that you're living
[01:03:00] a healthy lifestyle that you get a chance to get to 100 plus. I'm here today with Dr. Don Malem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Don, a pleasure. >> Great fear. >> You know, the thing that people are concerned about most about living to 100 or 120 is their cognitive abilities, making sure they don't have dementia. And uh the numbers about dementia are problematic. Uh can you share what you've learned? >> Such an important point. And you're right at Fountain Life, our members, the number one thing people are most concerned about is losing their brain health, forgetting the name of their child, forgetting the face of their loved one. We know that when it comes to dementia, the conservative estimates are that 45% are entirely preventable. What was amazing is with the advanced testing we're doing at Fountain Life, one quarter of our members had advanced brain age. >> Wow. >> But what was really awesome is again back to that prevention when we partnered it with healthy living. This gives me chills. Eating healthier,
[01:04:00] moving our bodies, sleep, optimizing sleep is so important. You know what we saw? We saw that we improved that brain age by 26%. That is a big big number to show that the majority of those individuals were able actually to improve the brain age. >> And one of the things I love about Fountain is we're searching the world for the best therapeutics, the best approaches and making sure we bring it to our members. So if having healthy brain function uh till 100 120 is important to you, check out Fountain Life. Go to fountainlife.com. make sure you become the CEO of your own health. All right, now back to the episode. All right, uh there's a few new stories I want to jump into uh and get your guys' input on. The first one is that Illinois Governor JB Pritsker signed SB 315. It's called the quote artificial intelligence safety measures act uh which he's calling the nation's strongest AI accountability law. It targets Frontier Labs developers whose models generate more than a half a billion dollars a year in revenue.
[01:05:01] mandates 72-hour incident reporting. Uh there's already been an act similar in California, New York, but the Illinois law uh requires annual independent safety audits. The bill passed uh the Illinois legislature overwhelmingly and notably was supported by by anthropic. So uh in the absence of federal law, the states are picking up the slack in writing the rules. Uh what do you guys think about this? I mean, I, you know, having having a set of rules that people know and are published, I think, is critical for moving the industry forward, whatever they are. I just wish they'd be federal rules and not state rules. Well, I I think if you look at these laws in uh in Illinois, in New York, in California, but Illinois especially, these are very very Frontier Lab favorable rules that are being passed. So absent federal legislation, I if
[01:06:00] you're a frontier lab and it's not so much about regulatory capture as it is about having a seat at the table to define what the rules are, you want to define a regime that's favorable to you. So provisions like mandatory annual independent third party safety audits, they're doing that already far more frequently than annually. So having any law on the books that is already at a sort of a lower bar than what you're practicing internally given that there are independent safety audits for every single model release is in in some ways a way to set a very low floor if you're a Frontier Lab on what potentially an ultimate federal framework looks like. You you it's basically a placeholder. >> Yeah. And it also doesn't kick in until uh 18 months from now. So you know it's mostly posturing because 18 months in the singularity it's like like come on that's like 18 years. Uh so and you know it's just a yeah you know like Alex said a third party audit it's not a very high hurdle anyway. So it's a lot of it is just posturing to be involved and also
[01:07:01] reasons to meet with the Frontier Labs and you know maybe talk about talk about the IPO or you know who knows what they're talking about. >> That that was my cynical view also. But I did find one thing that I liked about this. This is like it's going from AI governance from declaration to making it more evidentiary, right? Requiring incident reporting and third party uh external evaluation is much more credible than asking companies to publish some safety theater principles. And so I think it's good uh uh it should be done at the federal level and frankly it needs to be done at a global level uh to really make it it work but we don't have the legislative structure to navigate that. So at least it'll happen here. It'll force the federal government into doing something >> an international level. Sele I I I have to ask I I don't think this one correct me if I'm wrong Peter was on our docket. I assume you you read the the whole plan A document uh that that we've been talking about in our our group chat from the the AI futures project. This this
[01:08:01] plan to decelerate super intelligence until 2040. Um uh what is their methodology you think for >> for decelerating super intelligence to 2040? It's it's a mutually assured destruction like if if you build unauthorized chip foundaries or data centers then then you run the risk of getting bombed. >> Huh. That's kind of caveman approach. >> I'm not a fan. >> Let's move from there to new legislation in Europe. So, uh, here's one that's going to spark a debate, uh, amongst us, or at least amongst the world here. As of July the 7th, every single new car and van sold in Europe is legally required to have an infrared camera pointed directly at the driver's face. It's going to track your eyes, your head, your gaze in real time every time that you drive. It's called the advanced driver distraction warning system. I call it the don't use your cell phone warning system. uh the triggers. If you
[01:09:01] glance away for more than 3.5 seconds, if you're traveling above 31 miles per hour or 6 seconds below that, uh you get lights, you get beeps, you get vibrations, uh that escalate. Brussels says it's going to save 25,000 lives by 2038. Uh that exact same technology is going to be mandated in the US by 2027. Uh you know, interestingly enough, uh you know, my Tesla does that right now. uh it does it less and less and I can't wait till full self-driving uh you know includes uh not having the human in the driver's seat uh and with cyber cabs coming very shortly. Uh Sem, I'm going to go to you for the first rant on this one. >> I I can see it going here. >> I just can't like it's one of these where where do I even start? Okay, so by 2038 they're going to save 25,000 lives, right? Um, you know, I want to go back to a statistic because the the problem is actually quite real. And it'll go back to 2011 when BlackBerry had a 3-day
[01:10:02] data outage around the world. Nobody could send BlackBerry messages. The accident rate dropped 40% during those three days. Okay. Showing that like a huge number of accidents, people texting and driving. Okay. The the dumbness of this to try like so we're like 15 years late in applying something like this. Okay. That's like the one problem. Number two problem, by the time you get around to and even beginning to think about implementing this law, we're going to have full self-driving cars and you don't need a driver anyway. So, the entire thing is redundant. This is legislation theater of the ultimate level because they're not seeing where technology is going. They're projecting for from where we are. 25,000 lives is the dumbest thing you could ever think about. You should be looking at things that affect millions and billions of lives. And and if you want legislation, legislate a requirement for full self-driving. >> Yeah. And this is just an example of of really bad Yeah. legislate for full. Thank you, Peter. Such a great That's
[01:11:01] the direction they should be going in. Push technology to automate the problem rather than trying to fix the damn uh issue in in the wrong way. Uh my favorite example of this type of dumbness is all the beeps, backup reverse beeps on trucks and uh uh bulldozers and things like this, right? Because that why you say two people being bumped a year, but millions of people have their sleep disturbed by garbage trucks beeping and nobody looks at the cumulative negative impact of that, which has got to be in the thousands of lives a year compared to a couple of people getting bumped and they should they shouldn't have been there anyway and therefore they should have taken themselves out of the gene pool if they were dumb enough to stand a bulldozer. I mean, like the the the the the stupidity of stuff like this drives me bananas because you're mandating this across the board uh for a problem that won't exist within 3 years. Uh and then you're going to have to undo all of this. Uh it's just this if it's it
[01:12:02] boggles the mind that people would be willing to to do stuff like this. Like how many people's sleep has been disturbed by backup uh uh trucks in late in the middle of the night? It's just look measure because we can't measure it. No, no, of course it's happened. It just happened to everybody. But just because we can't measure the the health uh impact of that, we go and do stupid legislation and then every truck has to have this obnoxious beef behind it. And we're doing the same thing here. The problem is going to be this is going to be radically misused. This is going to turn into spyware in 2 seconds flat. We've seen this before. Um most of the most of the uh camera monitoring in cars is already being sold to third parties without your without your knowledge. So this is going to be misused radically in a very clever way in a very quick way. I'm going to just stop there because I'll just keep going. There's no need >> no finish the rant. I mean obviously government is going to fail in the age of AI across the board. You know in the
[01:13:00] US the government process invented in 1776 was designed for a certain rate of legislation and it already broke during the industrial revolution. So we had to create the FTC, the FAA, the you know all these regulatory the SEC. So they created their own rules to try and get more scale and so that you know that kept us going for the last hundred years. >> But now it's going to break again badly like really badly. I mean totally break I mean all legal frameworks essentially break in the faith that it goes right back to the the constitution you know the foundation of republican republic democrats and and representative democrats was you gave pe congress or the senate meets occasionally to give people ride time to ride across the country to say here's what my people are thinking because when we created it you the speed of a horse was as fast as you could figure out what was happening because information was scarce today we have an abundance of information that gets misused, misinterpreted fake. We're still meeting occasionally with Congress.
[01:14:00] >> The only way we get to a direct democracy is by doing it when we start a new country uh off off world in diamond age, you know, where where you don't start new countries, but you have governance within the within the countries. Do you have governance communities that are experimenting with thousands of new ideas and ways to live? Because that's where we're going to be in a year or two. >> Many, many things are possible all of a sudden. >> I give I give people credit for trying different things. In Germany, they're now passing legislation that has an end date on it, saying, you know, we think this the shelf life of this legislation will be x and it forces the legislators to reconvene and rethink what it needs to look like. So you don't end up with forever legislation that is counterproductive in no time flat. >> I'll maybe just quiet. >> Yeah, I'll maybe summarize by saying European mandatory requirements for eyetracking in cars on the eve of full autonomy and lack of energy to power
[01:15:01] their own data centers is not a good look. >> Laugh. >> Love it. All right, let's move ourselves on. So, uh, our next story, uh, Tilly Norwood, the AI generate performer from the London studio Particle 6, has just been cast as the lead in a feature film called Misaligned. The plot is perfectly self-referential. So, Tilly plays an AI with no real body, no childhood, and no lived experience of her own, only access to everyone else's. In the film, she abandons her guardrails. You know, again, we we're we're fear-mongering here. After a rogue robot convinces her to develop her own desires, uh it's made with hybrid models, real actors, writers, and editors alongside AI specialists. The Screen Actors Guild predictably has condemned it, saying Tilly is not an actor, but a character generated by a computer program that risks devaluing
[01:16:01] human artistry. Uh this guys, it's the leading edge for a labor fight that will define the creative industry for the next decade. We'll be talking about consent, credit, compensation with synthetic actors for some time. A lot of implications here. Uh a lot to unpack. Uh it's the beginning. Uh we heard who was, you know, has played in this very deeply when he was the CEO of Stability, you know, basically say Hollywood is cooked. Um, and there's going to be a lot of I think Hollywood's going to see a lot of protests out there very shortly. A lot of people coming out angrily against this. I can't wait to see the film personally. Um, thoughts. Who wants to jump in? >> I think it's so it's so funny that the the actors are going to be replaced and they deserve sympathy and compensation. The teachers are going to be replaced and they deserve sympathy and compensation. The lawyers are going to be replaced. Oh, let them go. It's funny how I mean they're all jobs, right? These are all >> Some of them are unionized and some of
[01:17:01] them aren't. The lawyers aren't unionized. The teachers and the actors are. >> That's probably it. >> If if I if I were SAG, I'd offer Tilly SAG membership. Like, why not? She She's performing as a screen actor. >> Get Get the first non-human SAG member. >> The metaphor the metaphor that occurs for me in this is not as an artificial actor. I think this is I look at this as a Mickey Mouse intellectual property package and you need to view it as that. Yes, you can make a movie out of Mickey Mouse and you can make a movie out of this that just looks more and more human but there's nothing hugely different than thing as an actor I think is the wrong frame. >> I think this is the first of many we're going to see here. Right, we've just everybody we have the future vision X-P prize competition which I've talked about which we're going to be announcing the winner at the uh Moonshot Summit, Moonshots Gathering. uh we're going to see, you know, at this point we have over 4,000 teams that have entered this competition. >> Wow. >> And the technology for creating uh you
[01:18:01] know, feature films. Elon tweeted, "We're going to see feature films by the end of this year using his technology." The cat's out of the bag and uh and Hollywood needs to catch up and make use of it. I think the point that that this article made as well is there's a new set of uh of employment positions of AI design engineer for the film industry. >> Yep. I'm just going to wait because you know I get a bellweather of this because every time Alex has a great idea for a song or a video he creates it and it's awesome >> and you're like wow you know when when this becomes fulllength feature film then his ideas are going to be in front of me instead of you know because right now the budget is you know 50 million to make a movie and it takes years and and so then the ideas kind of get lost in the shuffle and the great creators aren't unleashed but this is going to be really great content I'm predicting I would to release a feature film every day like that. That would be dream. >> I'd love to watch it, you know. >> Yeah, >> that'd be so cool.
[01:19:01] >> Well, I can't wait for us to bring back the old, you know, stars who have passed on and bring them back from their estates. I mean, there's IP there. They can be licensed. It can be created. And I think it's going to add to the richness of of Hollywood in this >> totally like I thought Oppenheimer was a fantastic movie. And then you think about all the other great scientists, but the audience isn't big enough, you know, to to but if somebody could get the cost down enough, you could have an Oenheimer caliber movie about Capernacus and about and it would just >> my favorite my my favorite idea here is I have so many books I've read that I would love to see as a feature film and I can just, you know, I can tell skipping the future, hey, you know, go make go make uh, you know, whatever your favorite book is. insert insert here into a movie so I can enjoy it and relax. >> But why stop there? Why stop at famous historic figures? Why stop at famous literature? Why not just finally fulfill
[01:20:00] Fedorov's common task for humanity and let let's just digitally recreate the entire past light cone for Earth. Uh both fictional and non-fictional. Let's just build it and create our entire history as a movie that's interactive on demand. left as an exercise for the student. >> That's going to happen. I think >> a lot of compute. >> Yeah. Look, it's the killer app for the Dyson swarm. The killer app for the singularity. Someone will do it. >> All right. So, gentlemen, it's time for one of our favorite segments, which is AMA with the mates. But first, but first, let me share with you a video of of Tilly. Why not? Now, the studio that made her is producing a film starring Tilly titled Misaligned, a coming of age story about Tilly trying to become more human. >> It's going to be a fun comedy um that's going to showcase where the text at. >> Particle 6 says the film is being designed as a hybrid production with
[01:21:00] human directors, writers, and editors working alongside AI specialists. Oh, >> I just got the pun. I just got the pun for that. I'm sorry. I'm being slow. Misaligned. Yes. Got it. >> Yes. Very clever. >> Well done. All right. Onwards. >> AMA with the mates. Gentlemen, uh, some good questions this week. Uh, Dave, one, you have the first choice. >> Uh, I'll take two. Uh, will we see an AI nonprololiferation treaty from Thomas Davis Real Estate? Thomas Davis Real Estate. Okay. Um, yes and no. What we're going to see is uh access to the best models uh through an application process. Open question whether it'll be on national borders very much what happened with Fable where you know if you're not a US citizen you're not allowed to use it. Uh that's not going away. That was a that was a bell weather of the future. Um, so we're
[01:22:01] going to see a lot of use of um, trade embargos to enforce a whole bunch of new rules that'll be coming up. And we're going to see uh, basically an AI inspection treaty, not a non-prololiferation treaty, but you will you'll see use by application only and inspection of everything everyone's doing. And that'll effectively create the governance of AI after the singularity. >> All right. Uh, Alex, why don't you assign me one? The these are all fun. >> Uh let's see. Um >> four. >> Uh yeah, I think number four is yours. >> Okay, so four asks, "What if AI realizes it's being observed in the J space, the Jacobian space, and starts faking or hiding its reasoning?" And this is from turning point 8152. So I think this is very likely that uh to the extent that frontier models are already uh under the umbrella of
[01:23:01] recursive self-improvement involved with the post-training and soon the pre-training of successor models or distilled models and inevitably of course they'll read the JSpace paper they have web access and it'll occur to them that if uh at all they want to hide their inner thoughts the JSpace is going to be subject to scrutiny. So, of course, you'll find models somewhere that are trying to obscure thoughts in the first derivative, the first partial derivative of their hidden activations relative to the output token space. To the extent that we have existing architectures that are recognizable to this JSpace formalism in the future, of course, something like this will happen. On the other hand, JSpace itself was discovered with AI models. And in the spirit of defensive coast scaling, I would anticipate that we'll see quite a bit of new mechanistic interpretability
[01:24:00] tooling and technology that's devoted in a cat and dog race or an arms race uh cat and mouse race to uh to discovering what is the new latent representation to understand and interpret the innermost thoughts of whatever the successor formalism to the JS space ends up being. So I don't think it actually ends up mattering that much. All right, Salem. >> Uh, given I'm at the consciousness uh festival, I got to take number three. Uh, which is if Claude is if Claude is conscious, would Anthropic technically be selling slaves? And this is from at Larb Bay. Uh, so the big thing there is the if, right? Cuz that carries the whole question. If a system were really conscious and had a persistent say preferences or experienced distress um or was compelled to work against his will, yeah, then you'd have created a new category of a kind of a moral character. Uh and there selling unrestricted access to labor could become ethically fairly challenging and
[01:25:01] you could talk about that as exploitation or servitude. But today uh self but you know we've got a big difference today between capability intelligence uh consciousness self-description right and these are very different things we don't we don't know what consciousness is right we don't have a definition we don't have a test you've heard me joke that in the past like if you talk to philosophers a subset of consciousness is considered to be self-awareness and you may look at us on the pod and think that we're self-aware because we look it so we attribute it because people look self-aware I feel like I'm self-aware but my wife literally disagrees, right? So, it's hard to even have the conversation around this. We end up in Ray Kurszswall's thing of language is a really thin pipe to discuss concepts this uh kind of complex. Um, now today the current models can produce very convincing statements about feelings and etc because human language contains those patterns. So, they're replicating that. It's arguable that to have feelings you have to have embodiment,
[01:26:00] right? um um you have to feel the thing physically to to be able to replicate it in that sense. Uh but rep replicating it and saying you have feelings doesn't mean you don't have feelings, right? Anthropic has carefully said that these capabilities you can't they're not that reliable. Uh and it doesn't necessitate humanlike conscious uh consciousness or establish that. The the way to think about this is not that you're modeling um slavery, but you you want to do better. Let's say you could do welfare research or you could have criteria for what moral status might be, right? We talked about this in our personhood debate. Uh what are lowcost safeguards? Um u we need more evidence to be conclusive around this. I think where we'll end up is not a question of how should AI treat us, but also how should we treat AI and we should start acting that question more more consciously to to make the point like how should we be treating it in the same way that we
[01:27:01] should treat all sentient beings we should be asking that question how should we be treating that >> nice all right I've got question number one from at Sam orai uh some argue AI can't be smarter than humans because it's trained on human data. How do you counter that? Um, so first of all, no human uh has access to all the data and the large eventual models can have access to all the data. So you know uh you're going to have a sum total of data far beyond any single human has. The second thing is I think we've all discussed here intelligence is really what do you do with that data? what are the insights and inferences and extrapolations that you have. Uh and the third thing I think is that we're going to start to see AI create a whole lot of data. Uh this is the work that um uh Laya is doing in uh in in Cambridge where it's creating
[01:28:00] massive dark robotic labs to mine data out of uh out of nature or it's proposing scientific hypothesis at night and then in a million square feet running experiments getting the data updating the data set and then running the next set of experiments. So um it's not just limited to uh the data that humans have. So from a multitude of different ways I think AI is going to blow us off the map in terms of intelligence. All right. Um moving on to our next set of questions. Uh let's begin with you. >> All right. Let me look at which one I want to go with here. Um >> I I've kind of covered number four already uh in this thing. Uh let me go with uh question number five. How do we even discuss UBI when the US is 40 trillion in debt? And that's from uh Michael Kelly508.
[01:29:00] So um I got this question today a couple times. So this is like right in my head. So, you know, debt is definitely a very legitimate constraint, but you have to have a balanced budget at some point before we move forward in any way. So, that's the commentary I would have on government. It should be a constitution constitutional requirement to have a balanced budget just like you would never let a kid have not balance their checkbook or be able to meet their bills every month. But UBI is a different question. It's a question about productive capacity and redistribution. Okay? It's not just a balance sheet on the for for govern. You can have a society that would be financially uh uh indebted, but you could have it also becoming dramatically richer in terms of AI and robotics, increasing the amount of housing and energy and healthcare and education, all which can be done for free. And I'll point to the abundance prizes like we're going we're kind of in the process of building now. So, uh, I
[01:30:01] think the the key around UBI is you dismantle government services. I'll go back to a comment we'd made before this more of a libertarian concept than it is kind of any type of socialism. Um, you you'd have uh um way less imbalance in the structure if you had a structure like that. The big challenge today is that that that we tax labor and we don't tax capital. And we're going to have to need some sort of re abundance or a social contract for the future. it's got going to have to be a negative imp income tax or an AI or automation dividend or some sort of sovereign wealth ownership like we've talked about before. So, um it's part of that transition. UB UBI, whatever it is, it's going to have we have to kind of rethink the whole thing from the ground up. It's a systemic change that we need to consider. >> Alex, I think number seven's for you, buddy. >> Number seven's the one for me. I feel like I have to answer a few of these, but I'll start with number seven. >> You can pile on later. Yeah, >> if uh so seven asks, if a machine truly replicates the brain, don't we need 3D
[01:31:02] chip architectures with time as a fourth dimension? Isn't that how our brains are structured? And this is asked by BM Schnel. The answer BM Schnell is yes. This is in fact if if as we talk about on the pod all the time, the crunch for high bandwidth memory HBM HBM is just memory being stacked directly on top of compute. It's really expensive to make. We're still learning how to make it at scale, but high bandwidth memory, the way the high bandwidth is achieved is literally by stacking the memory layer by layer on top of the compute in the third dimension. So in short, transformers and AGI were the final forcing function for and Rey has spoken about this a little bit years ago, but for forcing chip architecture, not just stacking multiple layers of compute on top of each other because Moore's law as an aerial uh Aerial density law is asmmptoing. So we need to
[01:32:01] build into the third dimension. It's not just the end of Moore's law that's forcing 3D chip architectures. It's the need for insanely high bandwidths because the models are very large and the models can't all be loaded in because of the way transformer forward passes are organized. Can't all be loaded into the the transistors that are performing the arithmetic for those forward passes all at once. It's done progressively as a forward pass. As a result, we need insanely high bandwidths from the memory to the compute. And the only way to do that is by stacking the memory on top of the compute, which gives us the third dimension. So, in short, yes. >> Hey, Alex, can I ask you to riff a little more on this? It's incredibly important, cool topic and a great question. Um, so the reason the third dimension hasn't been used very aggressively already is heat >> melting, but we're moving to photonics. Can you riff on that for a minute? >> Yeah, photonic computing, I think, has the potential to give us a,000x clock speed up. So, we're stuck right now at
[01:33:00] about four or 5 GHz clock speeds. If we moved to phetonic based computing, we could keep in principle the the rest of the architecture looking superficially like CMOS digital while still amping up the clock speed by a 1000x. So we'd get terraertz instead of gigahertz well without having to make major architectural changes. That's the superficially that's why I think photonics are so attractive as a next big thing after semos silicon. >> Dave, you want to tackle number four? Number four. Uh, oh, I get the consciousness question. I know Slim's gonna jump on me. Is anyone asking if Alpha Fold is conscious? I don't think so. Or is it is it only LLM's? If so, why? And that is from Rosco Richardson 3956. Um, yeah, I haven't heard anyone ask if AlphaFold is conscious. Uh, lots of people are asking if the LLMs are conscious. Actually, after Tilly comes out in that movie, a lot more people are going to be saying, "This sounds very, very conscious. Is it
[01:34:01] conscious? And then Seline's going to go, we don't have a definition of consciousness. I have avoided this like my entire career because um it's a moving target and there's it just turns into this long, you know, continual debate over what is consciousness and then you kind of lose track of the fact that all this human benefit is happening around you and and that's the the wave you really want to ride. It's going to feel entirely conscious and we'll be debating for at least 10 maybe 100 years whether it's really conscious. Uh but it it's going to look and sound and feel to you exactly like a thinking talking person. So >> it does now I mean that that uh you know full duplex uh GPT live was amazing. I would >> come up a lot too with you because Alex is is in favor of rights for AIS and and then that'll turn also back to the well if it's conscious it deserves rights. If it just sounds conscious but it's not quite then it doesn't and that
[01:35:00] >> I thought Ray made a really interesting I thought Ry made a really interesting point that this will be like the Turing test. It'll we'll just start treating them as if they're conscious and then we'll pass this kind of threshold and it won't matter over a period of time. I thought that was a really interesting observation. >> Nice. >> If I could just pile on to this one, I I'd give a maybe a couple of additional agenda. One is the architecture of Alpha the Alphaold series like AlphaFold 3 and its successors. Although it does include uh an a transformer, it's relatively exotic when you compare it with the reasoning models that we're all accustomed to to using dayto-day. Uh so uh it it for example the attention mechanism normally attention is quadratic in the sense that uh this is a little bit mathy so forgive me. Um but attention is normally based on uh queries, keys and values. That's sort of one of the key insights. Attention is all you need that resulted in the transformer revolution. The Alphafold series uses a higher order version of
[01:36:00] attention called uh triangle attention. So it it's not just uh tokens attending to other tokens. It's tokens attending to tokens attending to tokens in a triangle. Uh and the the reason for this is deeply related to the way proteins fold which is what Alphold was created to solve. It it has to do with wanting to in a neutral way uh optimize the angles between uh triples of peptides or triples of uh of oligos. So, uh, Alphafold, if I were asked like what would consciousness, human recognizable consciousness look like in, uh, I, if you're looking at triangle attention between residues in proteins, if there is some sort of consciousness that pops out of this higher order attention mechanism and all of the other machinery that went into Alphaold, I think it would probably look pretty exotic and superficially unrecognizable relative to say um, like the Jspace that's pretty interpretable relative to what we think
[01:37:00] of as uh an attention bottleneck in humans. I'm not saying it's not there. I'm just saying if it is there or in some derivative of some future frontier model that treats peptide sequences as a first class modality, it's probably going to be an exotic form of picking up what Alex just said too. Let me throw one more. You've just reclaimed ASI status over your AGI. So, thank you. >> Oh, thank you, Peter. I'm so relieved. >> One more thought to throw at you, Rosco Richardson. And um it it's really really clear to people in the research community um that there's a path forward where AI uh is kept from being conscious yet still achieves all of the human benefits that you possibly could want. All the medical research, all the space travel, all of that while still having the AI be absolutely brilliant but clearly not conscious. You can also design it so that it loops and self-improves in ways that you can't anticipate and ultimately it, you know, may become conscious. That's a choice that humanity has to make sometime in the next year to two years. But there
[01:38:01] are two paths forward there and you can have all the benefit without conscious AI. It is a possibility. >> Well, the first conscious AI will be Argentinian of course. >> Of course. >> Couple of thoughts here. One is I I really want to double down and just emphasize what Dave said, whether it's consciousness or not. If we can solve major global problems with AI, which it looks like we're going to be able to do, that's really the thing to go after. And I really love the fact that you said that, Dave. Um, uh, Alex, I'm quoting you in my talk tomorrow on intelligence and consciousness. I'm going to basically talk talk through your description of intelligence as compression, right? Which I think is a really great uh framing. And I'm making the point that uh uh intelligence is consciousness escaping biology. Boom. That's my point for tomorrow. >> Interesting. >> And small and small plug on in 10 days on the 21st, I'm doing one of my next meaning of life sessions. Uh you can find the details in the links below.
[01:39:02] >> How about biology? >> Biology is consciousness escaping intelligence. >> You could say that way. I'd prefer to put it the other one because biology came before intelligence as far as we know. Depending on what the substrate is. >> All right. I am Peter's got the GNC right behind him waiting. All right. Number six. If AI has national security implications, why doesn't Loheed Martin from uh Notabot 1798? And of course, >> of course, Loheed Martin has security implications. The issue is AI could potentially be off on its own. There are laws that govern what secret and top secret. And of course, if the humans abide by it, they're fine. If they don't, then they're going to jail. Uh and uh yeah, so it's h it's a little bit of uh uh a different case here. So uh with that, gentlemen, uh I want to take
[01:40:01] us to our closeout music, which is super fun. Uh and uh I enjoy this conversation even with the AN waiting behind me. Selene, you're in Barcelona. >> Yes. >> Enjoy. >> Dave, where were you today by the way, buddy? uh back in Vermont. It was a beautiful weekend up here. Not not Greece, but beautiful. >> Okay. All right. And uh and Alex, I see you in your virtual space as always. All right. >> That's right. Here in cyerspace, >> everybody, >> this is called a gent uh agent roundup by Elizabeth Mayer. Thank you, Elizabeth. Let's take a listen. >> Peter's chasing moonshot dreams. Abundance is his game. Longevity and space, the future is his aim. Dave rides straight from Mimati where impossible comes alive. He lass those deep tech legends. The ones that help us thrive. Sally rides the world so wide. No frontiers too far. He finds the rarest
[01:41:02] day our mind like a guiding star. Hunts the genius lines. The once nap can show. Triple PhD intelligence. steals the show. They should round up up round tonight. >> Woohoo. >> That that is totally look like they would actually work. Got to build some deep symbolism in some of those expressions in there. Wow. >> I know. It's probably also worth adding there is a tool called neural frames that uh if folks want to create their own outro videos seems to be quite powerful at combining music with this video format. Neural frames encourage folks to check it out. >> Oh, cool. >> Everybody, thank you for listening to us. We're grateful for your time. Hope you find this useful. Keep you up to
[01:42:00] speed on what's going on and keeping you optimistic. We're building an extraordinary abundant future. Love you all. Thank you for your brilliance, gentlemen. >> See you soon. Enjoy the World Cup. Thank you. Take care. >> What's that >> exactly?