This was Nvidia World. It was a absolute madhouse. >> Open Claw is the number one. It’s the most popular opensource project in the history of humanity and it did so in just a few weeks. We’re announcing our support of it. >> This is just the extraordinary breath that Nvidia and Jensen are imagining. They’re putting their hands, their capabilities, their hardware, their production into everything. They’re building an ecosystem and then letting everybody uh do radical innovation at the edges. >> This is what Microsoft was in the early days, what Google was, but times 100, times a thousand. >> Right here where I stand, I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion. >> This week was fascinating. You know, we’re going to dive into this. Sam Alman predicting, you know, a,000x drop in cost. Anthropic being named the most disruptive company eating OpenAI’s lunch. Amazing progress this week. Let’s take a quick look here. So,
[00:01:03] >> now that’s a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen. >> Most importantly, Peter, massive congrats. That was such an unbelievable conference. I I consistently get amazed by the level that you’re pulling off and jealous also. >> Thanks, pal. It was year 14 the best of all of them. I think you know for me the most important part is getting amazing people there. We had so many CEOs from so many industries and I loved having all of you on stage with me and I’m pulling you guys more in every year. So get ready. >> It was tremendous fun. Peter, thank you for organizing. >> It was great to meet Alex in person and verify that he is indeed um at least a meat puppet if not really. >> Well, let’s talk about what we’re talking about. See, did you really meet me in person or did you meet a clone or a transporter copy or a bioprinted 3D meat puppet? It it was one of those projections somewhere along the line, but what are we but a projection of spirit anyway?
[00:02:01] >> Yeah. Well, >> I’ll speak for yourself. >> You know, Ben Ben Lamb bought the two best cloning companies in the world have the highest efficiency in cloning and success rate. And so I put myself in for uh for duplication. >> Did you really? Well, you just gave him a bunch of DNA while you were with us. >> Yeah. I was going to go I figured 10 would be a good start. >> One per company. Wait, does that mean that we get a Peter burger at the next meal? >> Oh, yes. Oh my god. If you haven’t seen Hail Project Hail Mary yet, um I’ve got my tickets ready and of course you know. >> Anyway, let’s not go there right now. >> All right, welcome uh everybody. Welcome to Moonshots. Another episode of WTF Just Happen in Tech. I’m here with my Moonshot mates DB2. You’re in Boston today, Dave? >> I am back in Boston. First time in three weeks. >> Amazing. and Alex Weezner Gross. Alex AWG, how are you doing, pal? >> I’m awake. I’m back in Boston as well after of course the abundance summit and then a week in Palm Beach for Palm Beach
[00:03:02] Forum. So, it’s nice to be back. >> Beautiful. And Salem in uh in New York, New Jersey? >> No, I am in Miami. Um I’ve had the most insane uh few days. I flew >> My god, you’re in India. You left. >> I flew I flew from the summit straight for an India Today conclave which is the biggest kind of magazine publication in India. And guess what I saw? I saw they had three people on stage in a row. Um one was the foreign minister of Iran. So that was like woow. >> Then they had Yeah. Then they had Laura Loomer giving somewhat the opposite perspective, shall we say? Uh and then the Israeli ambassador to India. >> Come on. >> No, I’m serious. You’re like, you’re like, wow. Like, do not let those three in a room together. Were you in seeing this? And >> no, no, no. I I I was a separate speaker afterwards. Um uh and it was pretty out there. And then
[00:04:00] my health started cuz I flew to from India through uh Heathro to Miami to a Caribbean country uh which shall not be named. I walk into the immigration hall of this Caribbean country. 600 like people in the immigration hall and two people working the passport count. >> Okay. Like you’re like this cannot be happening during you know prime u um uh spring holidays etc etc. Not a hotel room to be had in the entire on the entire island and two people working immigration. So the some place they’re going to have to get their act together. >> I can’t believe from moonshots.com. >> Yes. Hello everybody. Welcome to Moonshots. I’m Peter D. Mandis, your host, and this is your number one podcast for AI and exponential tech. Our mission here, get you future ready. Get you ready for the supersonic tsunami coming our way. As always, we’ve got a a full presentation on what’s just happened the last 3 days.
[00:05:01] Um, I missed you guys. It’s only been about 5, six days. And uh, >> feels like a month. Separation, huh? It feels like a month. It really does. >> Um, uh, we’re going to start here, but I had a conversation this morning with two of our listeners who are in Hollywood here. They’re Hollywood producers, uh, Jonas and Josh, uh, Pat, uh, Pate, and they said, you know, Moonshots is the light against the darkness. And they were like just just could not stop saying, you guys give us hope. You know, there’s so much doom and gloom out there about the future. And, uh, and this show gives us hope. So, uh, Jonas and Josh, thanks for that word. And everybody, um, please, uh, join us. We’re almost at 500,000 subscribers. Push us over the top. Uh, that would be meaningful. If you haven’t subscribed, please do. Turn on notifications. Uh, we’re now publishing almost twice a week. And our mission is deliver you everything that’s important. You know, this is the news that really matters in the world. Okay, we jump into top AI news. Nvidia,
[00:06:02] OpenAI, Anthropic, and XAI are in the news this week. And this was Nvidia World. Uh GTC 2026. 30,000 attendees. Uh it actually the opening keynote by Jensen took place at SAP Center in San Jose. Uh they couldn’t hold it in the convention center. 2,000 speakers, a thousand sessions. I actually dropped in for about an hour and it was a absolute madhouse. You know, uh, our first video we’re going to watch here is Jensen talking about reaching a trillion dollars by 2027 in revenue, not in valuation. They blew past that a long time ago in revenue. And this event, this photo of 30,000 people in the room, that’s what a trillion dollars of revenue looks like when the whole world uh, ends up coming coming to you. So I I think the most important thing to realize is that Jensen is looking to power everything, right? Uh he’s looking
[00:07:01] to own the infrastructure that runs physical AI that run that runs data centers in space that runs even open claw. So uh let’s check it out. I’m going to share a couple of videos and then let’s chat about it. So, uh, the operating system for robots, cars, agents, and orbit. Uh, you know, I’ve been holding off buying more Nvidia stock because much how much higher could it go? Well, we’re going to find out. Okay. Uh, Nvidia, let’s listen. Right here where I stand, I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion Dave, a trillion bucks. >> It’s not really a trillion. It’s uh that’s a trillion dollars of bookings that has to be recognized over the life
[00:08:00] of the bookings. Also, that’s uh spread across two years of So, so Amazon or Anthropic is going to get to a trillion within a calendar year faster than Nvidia. Nvidia would get there faster if they could get the chips made because the demand is there, but TSMC is the bottleneck. They’ve already locked up 70% of TSMC’s uh >> volume of the 3 nanometer node. Uh and there’s just nowhere to go. Like they they yeah, they can go up in price, I guess, but they, you know, they can sell for a higher ticket, but you just can’t make more chips. We don’t have the fabs. And and it >> if Nvidia can actually lock up a trillion dollars in revenue from selling its hardware, I mean, how much negotiating power do any of its customers have? Like none. >> None. Yes, that’s dead right. I mean, people are begging. It’s funny, you heard Larry Ellison say this as long as a year ago. We are literally me and Elon and Sam are all lined up outside his door begging for the chips. when in the history of sales has the customer come
[00:09:01] to you begging for the product. So, it makes you wonder why doesn’t he charge more for it, but he’s already at 80% gross margin. Like, it would start to get kind of egregious. Yeah. >> Yeah. You know, we’re going to see Elon’s uh uh you know, Terra Fab in a little bit to compete against all this, but let’s go to the next video here. Uh let’s listen to Jensen talk about, you know, OpenClaw. What a phenomenon. So, so um uh Peter Steinberger is here and um uh he he wrote a piece of software. It’s called Open Claw and and um I don’t know if he realized uh how successful it was going to be. Um but the importance is profound. Open Claw is the number one. It’s the most popular. >> I’m going to pause it here. Look at that red line, that red vertical line. Right. So that yellow line here is Facebook. Um and uh that blue line is uh
[00:10:04] is Linux. Right. So we’re talking about, you know, incredible growth for both of them over the last decade. And then here comes OpenClaw vertical. Do you remember when Chat GPT came out and you were like, “Oh my god, you know, a million users in what was a 100 days. What could possibly scale faster?” >> Well, here we go. I’ll continue on. open source project in the history of >> Yeah, please. >> Oh, so John Wernern had a meeting with the very high ranking MIT administration >> and he had some kind of a lobster garment on. Oh, the tie that I gave him, the lobster tie. >> And I won’t tell you who it was because it’s just too embarrassing. But they’re like, “What? What’s the significance of the lobster?” >> Like, what are you like what? Where have you been? >> It’s the biggest cultural phenomenon in probably in world history. >> Well, of course, in Boston, a lobster is a different different significance, >> I guess. But oh my god. >> You know what I thought saw when I thought this was a thought when I saw
[00:11:00] this was this is the classic exponential. I mean, we’re past that now. But it looks vertical in front of you and it looks boring and dull behind you, right? So, in a week, we we’ll look at this and go, “Yeah, yesterday, you know, it’s something else came.” But that line, that line is so unreal. >> It is unreal. And it’s, you know, like Alex is always saying, don’t sleep through the singularity. We we take it for granted, but it’s only been a few weeks. You know, it’s >> it would be very easy to have been on a Caribbean island accidentally, you know, for for a little while and have no idea what’s going on. >> I’m going to jump back into Jensen here on Open Club >> of humanity and it did so in just a few weeks. It exceeded it exceeded what Linux did in 30 years and it’s that important. It is that important. It will do well. >> Uh this is all you do. Okay. We’re announcing our support of it. They’re
[00:12:01] announcing Nemo Claw. Uh AWG, what are your thoughts? >> I I think it’s inevitable that Nvidia would need to play in this space. I I do agree with the premise that open claw is probably as Jensen and others have characterized it the biggest thing in AI at least in terms of unhoblings since chat GPT unhobbled GPT3 in 2022. I I think I in some sense it was also inevitable that the next big unhobbling after chat GPT would also grow far more quickly in terms of adoption than chat GPT itself because all of these unhoblings are technically stacked on top of each other. Open Claw in the sense that it’s sort of a a 24/7 headless uh other than via messaging and and other mechanisms agent that builds on top of everything else that we’ve built on thus far in the tech stack. It builds on reasoning models. It builds on large language models underneath. And so
[00:13:01] in some sense as we build further up the stack in terms of more and more advanced unhoblings for these AI capabilities, I I do expect the the growth pattern to uh to shorten even further to to the point where maybe in a few months or at say at maximum two years we we’re having a similar discussion. history will rhyme and we’ll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes. And we’ll have the same Jensen quote probably and say, “All right, we’re going all in.” Hey everybody, you may not know this, but I’ve got an incredible research team. And every week myself, my research team study the meta trends that are impacting the world. Topics like computation, sensors, networks, AI, robotics, 3D printing, synthetic biology. And these Metatrend reports I put out once a week enable you to see the future 10 years ahead of anybody else. If you’d like to get access to the Metatrends newsletter
[00:14:01] every week, go to diamandis.com/metatrends. That’s diamandis.com/metatrends. Nvidia is, you know, trying to optimize for enterprise on their full stack with Nemoclaw. And the question is if they really optimize and they’re selling it packaged with Nvidia, it’s it is it really truly open infrastructure. Uh we’re going to start to see a lot of people trying to capture that. And of course we saw last week uh that anthropic is effectively duplicating all the elements of OpenClaw. So this is going to go everywhere and I wonder how fast it’s going to it’s going to hit. Uh See, have you started your uh your lobster yet? I have uh strong thoughts here. >> Um uh I think what you said, Peter, is exactly right. We’re going to see a flurry of these. We’re also see seeing a bunch of of Perplexity Computer and uh on the other end you’ve got Pico Claw and and at the other end of the stack but this announcement from Nvidia for me
[00:15:01] was a monster implication because one of the things about open claw was that you have recursive self-improvement in business workflows and this is uh the heart of this paper I’ve been writing which I think will be ready next week called the organizational singularity. Right? This once you have that all human to human workflows essentially evaporate. It does you can’t sustain you can’t compete because once you put a workflow into this set of agents and they’re optimizing it by themselves um you want to get the humans out of the way as fast as possible. And this the fact that this is announced uh to support enterprises solves the open claw security issues and the uh danger that comes with it. this will be the biggest thing to hit the enterprise world in decades. Um, and I think we’re going to see adoption by enterprises at that scale. I’ve had CEOs calling me saying, “Please, you know, cuz my thesis is you can’t fix the any
[00:16:01] existing organization because it’s inherently human to human. All the AI projects are failing. corporate AI projects are failing because they’re trying to optimize human to human and we’re inherently flawed anyway in terms of latency, jealousy, time taken, you know, Peter, you send me an email, you never know if I’m going to respond. All that frailty comes into the human being. Um whereas if you go agent to agent and you improving the workflows uh recursively, this profoundly chase. Every organization in the world now has to do one thing to survive one only which is at the edge of your organization create an AI native uh operating system that’s centric AIcentric and start moving workflows over to over to it human beings then become oversight and then exception handling uh and monitoring the overall system and this is going to have to happen now and we’re going to we’re going to see I’ve got we may have to like batch up CEOs and say we’ll take you in batches through this process But it’s going to have it’s going to be
[00:17:01] every company, every nonprofit, every government department, uh every single organization in the world. The implications for government are profound because government is mostly prescriptive processes, past pro renewals and so on. So this is going to be incredible and I think the value this will add to the world is going to be near infinite from where we can see it today to where it’ll get to. >> Salem, that is so dead right. Last night I uh I installed uh Amazon Bedrock or opened an Amazon Bedrock account because you can run OpenClaw there now which is brilliant by AWS. But I swear to God it was less than 10 minutes. Just go to aws.mamazon.com if you have a credit card and you’re a human being you can be up and running with OpenClaw inside a secure environment. And I think the reason this is such a big unlock for business is because when we started rolling this out at Vesmark, the first problem we ran into is a lot of people trying to automate their job react through emails and Slacks and other messaging systems and there was no way to connect Claude to it. And so, you know, cutting and
[00:18:00] pasting all the crap out of email to get it over to to Claude or to OpenAI was such a pain in the butt. Now with OpenClaw running in a secure environment on AWS, it’s instantly connected to all of our enterprise emails and everything else. So it like for just regular like the coders have known this when they’re writing code for a long time, more like a year, but the rest of the business hasn’t been able to really tap into AI and now it’s just, you know, because of open clause, it’s just trivially easy. >> And it’s still early. And it’s still >> I’m just noting the date. I’m just noting the date. March 16th is the date of the organizational singularity. Everything should >> make it make it St. Patrick’s Day. It’s easier to remember. >> Okay. St. Patrick’s Day. That’s that that’s even easier. Yes. >> We’re going to hit we’re going to hit two more videos and talk about and again this is just the extraordinary breadth that Nvidia and Jensen are imagining. They’re they’re putting their hands, their capabilities, their hardware, their production into everything. I mean multiple trillion dollar avenues. What’s really powerful here? What’s really
[00:19:01] powerful for Nvidia here, sorry to interrupt, Peter, the is that they’re building an ecosystem and then let letting everybody uh do radical innovation at the edges, right? And that’s how successful this is the coral leaf reef analogy we’ve used in the past. >> And let’s get into physical AI. You know, Eric Schmidt was discussing this at the Abundant Summit. Uh let’s take a listen. >> We also have been working on physically embodied agents for a long time. We call them robots. And the AIs that they need are physical AIs. We have some big announcements here. I’m going to just walk through a few of them. 110 robots here. Almost every single company in the world, I can’t think of one that are building robots is working with Nvidia. We have we even have T-Mobile here. And the reason for that is in the future that radio radio tower used to be a radio tower is going to be an Nvidia aerial AI ram. And today we are announcing four new partners for
[00:20:01] Nvidia’s robo taxi ready platform. BYD, Hyundai, Nissan, Ji all together, 18 million cars built each year. Joining our partners from before, Mercedes, Toyota, GM, the number of robo taxi ready cars in the future are going to be incredible. And we’re announcing also a big partnership with Uber. Multiple cities were going to be deploying and connecting these robo taxi ready vehicles into their network. >> Insane, right? This is what Microsoft was in the early days, what Google was, but times a 100, times a thousand, Nvidia inside everything. So, you know, my question to you guys is how long before regulators frame Nvidia as a critical infrastructure and start
[00:21:00] treating it, you know, more like a utility. How long before they start being, you know, seen as uh as having too much power by all of their customers and by government? >> They’re dusting off their antitrust uh legislation as we speak. >> No, I I think I I think the the critical product of Nvidia compute is already highly export controlled. It’s it it may get even more export controlled over the the coming months. So I think this is already highly regulated. What I see coming out of GTC this year is in some sense the Western response to China’s AI plus 5-year plan. In in China, the Chinese Communist Party has a 5-year plan to infuse AI into the rest of in the industrial ecology. We we don’t really have quite the the same industrial policy in the West or or in the US, although we do have an increasingly aggressive industrial policy. The question I’m asking, the question I’m asking is, you know, Nvidia
[00:22:00] is getting so much power. It’s so fundamental into every single layer of the stack, all physical AI, all data centers, everywhere. Uh besides antitrust, you know, they have such power that they can make or break their kingmakers if they want to be. And how much before they get, you know, you know, the their customers saying, “You have too much control over us and we need to compete.” I think they’re >> very very specifically, you’re dead right, Peter, and very specifically the the the choke point is going to be the conversation with TSMC and also Intel and Samsung. Like I could literally design a chip and sell it out. You know, it’s it’s it’s not hard to sell chips in the age of AI if you can get them made. So what Jensen is doing right now is locking up the future manufacturing of TSMC as far into the future as they’ll let him. Well, what do you mean by they’ll let him? Well, it’s the government that will ultimately say it’s anti-competitive to do a 10-year forward
[00:23:00] contract on all of their manufacturing capacity >> and that’s where the rubber is going to hit the road. So, so he has to kind of, you know, his margins are so high. We also have >> bordering. >> Yeah. Bordering on, you know, where the government will intervene. And if you start locking up all future manufacturing using your current leverage, that’s where they’re going to come and and and it’s going to collide. And you’ll see that with Elon’s plans, too. >> That’s right. There’ll be there’ll be severe competition coming. He’s trying to lock everything up before that all arrives. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I I want to question the premise, though, Peter. I I don’t think say the the clip that we just played which is Jensen demonstrating the pervasiveness of Nvidia compute into an industrial ecology is intrinsically anti-competitive. This is exactly I would argue what Nvidia should be doing. If if you want to look for anti-competitive behavior then I I would scrutinize perhaps the the Grock acquisition or or activities like that. I I don’t think the the pervasiveness in robots and robo taxis is is it a bad
[00:24:01] sign. This is incredibly, I would argue, good sign for the West. Again, going back to what the CCP is is doing with their five five-year plan. >> Well, the GR acquisition is exactly the the where the rubber hits the road. Like the the Nvidia story on Grock is look, they’ve got a better inference time design. We want to acquire them. The Grock point of view is we can’t get this made unless we get the TSMC 3 nanometer and 2 nanometer capacity. And Jensen locked it up. So, we have to sell to him. But he gave us a great price tag, so it’s all it’s all good. >> So here here’s my question, Dave, to you. >> Uh, what do you imagine we’re going to see in terms of Nvidia’s revenues? Is he going to hit the trillion dollars? Is he going to continue to climb? Is there no ceiling on this? Is there >> there’s there’s no ceiling whatsoever. It’ll be $350 billion this calendar year, and it’ll grow at the max possible rate that he can get TSMC capacity. So he can grow another 2x into the 2nanmter
[00:25:00] node and then he’s floored. You know, a lot of the growth, you know, he he had about 20% market share with TSMC when this all started. Now he’s up to a lot more than that. So he had a lot of of really fast growth, but from here on out, it’s all gated by how quickly can we build new fabs. And there’s a lot of investment and research going into new fab designs, new types, which are all bottlenecked by ASML machines, >> which are absolutely worth tracking. Every time an ASL machine gets gets shipped, it’s worth tracking who got it, where is it going to because they’re going to print money with it. It’s it’s like literally you bought a printing press. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Well, there’s a lot of talk right now that Elon is secretly negotiating with Intel because Intel has a lot of those >> uh that they booked years ago. >> Uh and you know, they’re underutilized relative to T. >> Well, when we were when we were podcasting with Elon, you know, we said, “Are you going to buy Intel?” That was our guest back then. He didn’t say no. He kind of looked around the room, >> which would be such an obvious thing to do. >> One more video again. I mean, just the
[00:26:01] breadth of Jensen’s vision uh and jumping in. I mean, every place there’s an opportunity, you know, Nvidia is jumping in strong. Let’s take a listen. >> We have we’re working with our partners on a new computer called Vera Rubin Space One and it’s going to go out to space and start data centers out out in space. Now, of course, in space, there’s no conduction, there’s no convection, there’s just radiation. And so, we have to figure out how to um uh cool these systems uh out in space. But we’ve got lots of >> So, I still love the fact that no one was discussing this seven, eight months ago. >> Elon Elon states we’re going to do this and the entire world is converging to implement his vision and his dream. >> Crazy. You know, it’s funny to me is I had so many meetings uh three months ago with semiconductor companies that are all excited about liquid cooling and they’ve got, you know, different etched grooves on the backs of the chip and the waters in they’re all dead silent and all of a sudden you’re like, “Yeah, that won’t work in space. Sorry.”
[00:27:02] Oh my god. Well, that’s the nature of the singularity. You know, things are going to change every month and just to get used to it, I guess. I I do find it I do find it somewhat surprising that Nvidia hasn’t been working on orbital radiationbased data cooling for or uh cooling rather for years. It is pretty surprising. On the one hand, one can say well the Dyson swarm snuck up on us and this was a very surprising killer app for for GPU compute and frankly for the solar system. On the other hand, it is surprising to me that given how many tendrils Nvidia has into so many different verticals that they they weren’t investing more earlier in space-based cooling. There is I I get this question all the time, the the common misconception that cooling radiation based cooling in space is somehow very difficult or very challenging or uh or or somehow an obstacle to to a scale out. It’s actually not that difficult. I I don’t think despite uh Jensen’s comments that
[00:28:02] he has dozens of engineers, I think was the quote, working on radiationbased cooling for orbital data centers or orbital GPUs working on it. That’s an optimization. We know how to cool orbital compute right now. >> Yeah. My concern, Alex, is more a massive solar flare or an EMP, you know, in terms kind of warfare state knocking out significant portion of our data centers up there. We know how to do that too. We we know how to design ionization resistant electronics in orbit. We’ve been doing it for decades. There are various techniques. You can use older process nodes. You can use extensive error correction. You can use shielding. Lots of different techniques. My my favorite is the Star Trek technique of just using a magnetic field to deflect ions and and otherwise deflect ionizing radiation around. It doesn’t work for for photons obviously. It only works for charged particles. But I I think we’re going to come up with lots of solutions for protecting or
[00:29:00] >> in the long run. Yes. I think the short run uh is what I’m concerned about. >> Aren’t there significant latency issues with with space-based stuff? >> Not if they’re in low Earth orbit. Lower Earth orbit is is very low latency. >> Yeah. I mean, it’s your it’s Starlink on your phone very very shortly. And again, you’re putting the you’re putting the prompt up into space and you’re getting the answer beam down to you. So, it’s um there’s a lot of stuff. I mean, you could probably parse the latency request to different parts of the constellation. >> Said something uh brilliant as always and kind of very quickly there that I want to just rewind the tape to. There’s a huge opportunity in older process nodes. Uh just file that away if you’re a listener wondering what you’re going to do post singularity. um partially because they’re resistant to radiation in space, but partially because it’s it’s underutilized capacity in the age where all AI will sell out. Um so we can riff on that some other time, but I want to be just call it out because Alex says
[00:30:01] these things so quickly. It’s it’s incredibly profound what he just said. >> May maybe one more teaser just on the latency front. People are sleeping on nutrinos. Uh I’ll I’ll make a prediction. Just like people maybe some folks were surprised by the Dyson swarm orbital data data centers. People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication. Right now we don’t have great technologies for producing in in a way that’s high throughput nutrinos or for receiving nutrinos. nutrino detectors in miles or you know thousands of meters below the ground in in large what’s the liquid they use for for tracking nutrinos? >> It’s usually heavy water. It’s usually looking for ionization trails. >> That’s right. But but there’s no physical reason from the physics that we have today why it has to be so inefficient to to electro via the electroeak force to couple to nutrinos. So one can imagine in a few years when
[00:31:00] we have better physics having nutrones that just go straight through the earth and then we can completely route around >> nutrones. >> Nutrones. It’s awesome. All right. >> That was also not on my bingo card >> for any discussions here. I mean come on. >> Uh this week >> that’s amazing. >> This week was fascinating. You know we’re going to dive into this. Sam Alman predicting you know a 1000x drop in cost. Claude writing 70 90 70 70 to 90% of its own code anthropic being named the most disruptive company you know and literally Claude or Anthropic eating open eyes lunch um amazing progress this week let’s take a quick look here so first up Sam Alman talking about his speed and cost right all right Sam tell >> people cite whatever amazing statistic they like about how much more efficient our models have gotten over our industries models have gotten over time. But one that I think is incredible, our
[00:32:01] first reasoning model was called 01 came out like 16 months ago. Uh and our latest model where we now integrated reasoning is 5.4. To get the same answer to a hard problem from that first model to 5.4 for has been a reduction in cost of about a,000x. >> Do you believe that number, Alex? >> I do. It’s consistent with the 40x year-over-year hyperdelation that we’ve discussed on the pod previously, but I I want to highlight the the implicit part that Sam was mentioning, which is he’s highlighting the difference between 01, which is OpenAI’s first reasoning model, and GPT 5.4, which is their latest reasoning model. he’s not highlighting say differences with models prior to the reasoning model revolution. So we’ve seen if if you look at the AI capabilities since reasoning models were
[00:33:00] first introduced the the hyperdelation of cost has been extraordinary. It’s it’s reasoning models that are enabling this massive increase in capabilities. It’s not necessarily training time compute. we see the shift to inference time compute or action time compute that that’s really enabling this 1,00x increase in call it capability per unit price and I I would expect that uh and I think maybe we’ll touch on this in a moment as we we hit recursive self-improvement more and more aggressively we’re going to to see this order of magnitude increase in capability per unit price fall out for free in in some sense, just like reasoning models in some sense fell out for free once you had the baseline of large language models and simply allowed them to sort of talk to themselves with additional tokens and reasoning time. And then you can through iterated amplification and distillation enable them to reason more effectively. We’re
[00:34:01] going to see post transformer architectures that make a thousandx reduction in cost look like child’s play. >> Yeah. And if you rewind the video here to Jensen’s comments and look really closely at what he has on screen in the corner, you’ll see uh him talk about the inference explosion is what’s driving this trillion dollars of bookings at NVIDIA, which is the exact same thing Alex is talking about. Like for all of neural network research history going back 40 years, nobody cared about inference time because the training was the bottleneck and the model wasn’t smart enough to care about making it inference really fast. Now chain of thought reasoning is the biggest breakthrough ever and you can use inference time compute to build a smarter and smarter and smarter AI and it’s very easy to optimize inference relative to training and we as a society have really just started on it in the last really two years or less and that’s why we’re getting these massive gains but that’s also why everyone’s really underestimating the next year >> because we did a 1000x like what are you
[00:35:01] expecting in the next year? Oh 2x like what are you talking about? Yeah, >> it’s not it’s not going to happen that way. >> Dave, you just said something there. Can I just drill in on that? Why is inference so much easier to optimize than training? >> Yeah, go ahead, Alex. Nail it. >> I I was going to say part of it is is frankly there’s an overhang. Uh prior to 01 and the reasoning model revolution, almost no effort was was being spent in scaling inference time compute. So if if you go from having zero tokens expended in reasoning to thousands of tokens expended in reasoning in some sense you get performance for free out of that at least capability per unit price because you were expending so little cost like if if you look at the the overall pi of how much compute was spent on training time versus inference time. so little compute was being spent on inference time that you can scale across orders of magnitude of the amount of time in an absolute sense that you spend on inference time without materially
[00:36:00] impacting your overall budget. So you you can get orders of magnitude of effective cost reduction per unit capability for free just through brute force scaling of inference time. Now at some point and we’re reaching that point now you run out of room and inference time compute starts to dominate the overall pi and there are many frontier models now where inference time is more inference time compute is being spent than training time compute for for some definition of of each of those quantities at which point the free lunch runs out and then you have to start getting discovering new efficiencies. I want to make the abundance argument here for folks listening. I mean a thousand times cheaper in 16 18 months. You know we are nowhere near optimized uh for inference um computing energy and cost. 6 billion people with a smartphone means that effectively there’s going to be some level of extraordinary AI available to every single person on the planet. Again what makes us special as humans?
[00:37:00] We’re not the fastest. We’re not the strongest. were potentially hopefully the smartest and we’ve delivering intelligence as a service to everybody and intelligence as a service gives everybody access to education, healthcare, entertainment, uh, you know, re-education for employment. Go ahead, Sim. >> Can I make a radical um heretical uh comment here? Um I’ll make a prediction that the optimization we’re doing which is 1000x in 16 months is going to keep going to in such a way that we may not need to tile the world with data centers or energy. Um I think the point we’ve been making until now is that the the demand for compute is so ridiculous maybe it’s 10 million times and we’ll optimize we’ll we’ll need all every single jewel of it. But if if the optimization is having that crazy like for example once you can run open claw locally and run models locally then that
[00:38:02] the compute the energy needed is really quite minimal for that and so do we really need the massive energy buildout? >> Well we John Warner calls that the wall you know the uh it’s not Wall-E it’s the other Disney movie where they’re they’re all blobs floating in space and they’ve kind of forgotten to innovate because it’s everything’s so easy. What which movie is that? Oh that is Wall-E, isn’t it? It it it is Wall-E. >> Is it Wall-E? >> Yes. >> Um, yeah. I mean, that that would imply that I go to you, Sem, and I say, “Hey, Salem, I can give you 1 billion employees with an IQ of 180 each. Uh, can you think of anything useful to build?” And you go, “Nah, I can’t really use it.” And >> so, the point you’re making is we’ll find so many ridiculous use cases for putting intelligence in every sensor in the world. Remember 6 billion people have access to a smartphone and how many people are using AI right now? you know, open eyes at 8 pushing 900,000
[00:39:00] um the the elephant in the room with the consumer case of putting a country of geniuses uh not in a data center but in your smartphone in your pocket is thus far consumers and and open AI has sort of been shocked by this haven’t made good use of reasoning capabilities whereas enterprises are thrilled with reasoning capabilities so if we want to empower individuals in the world we need to discover a killer app for individual ual to use reasoning other >> well we need to change their mindset you know I’m you know I’ll say this again right here everybody listening your job is to use AI every day we had Bill Gross on stage at the Abundance Summit basically saying we have to retrain ourselves because all of us have learned that if you have to do something you have to do it or you have to find an employer to do it for you the judo move here the new mindset wiring is I need something done I bet you AI can do it for me better than I can and better than a Uh, I have a killer app. I mean, for God’s sakes, any little bit of common
[00:40:00] sense as a killer app. I mean, God, we need more of that around the world. >> You You get common sense from baseline large language model capabilities. I think I’m not even sure you need a lot of reasoning for that. >> So, let’s just force everybody, every human being before you make any stupid decisions, check with your common sense app before you do dumb things. Well, that’s >> I think that the solution is likely to to end up being something like turning every individual into an enterprise that actually needs reasoning capability. I think there’s probably a trillion dollar company to be built, turning every individual in the world into like one person unicorns. >> Let’s jump in to Sam Alman talking about AI reinventing itself. On the research perspective, I bet there is another new architecture defined that is going to be like as big of a gain as transformers were over LSTMs. And I think you finally have models that are smart enough to help do that kind of
[00:41:00] research. So I would I would go look for like where can I find a mega breakthrough? uh and I would use the models to help me. >> And we had Kevin Wheel on stage, you know, who’s heading science at OpenAI. We talked about the fact that what’s hidden inside these hyperscalers, inside these frontier labs, is the fact that they’re going to use AI to create incredible breakthroughs in in in physics, in chemistry, in biology, in material science, in uh in AI itself. And each of those are multi-t trillion dollar opportunities itself. So um Alex thoughts. >> Well maybe just to speak at the object level to Sam’s comments about a leap from transformer to something after transformer that’s comparable to LSTM to transformer. I think that’s very likely. He may even be gesturing at something that OpenAI has internally. I I I want to combat the the the perception that
[00:42:01] the post transformer hypothetical post-transformer architecture necessarily will involve a recurrent architecture. There are a lot of companies that were founded on the premise that just because transformers superficially have an attention bottleneck and a context window bottleneck and seem to have plateaued out at about a million or so tokens of of context that somehow going backwards in time to recurrent architectures like LSTMs which are a form of recurrent architecture are somehow the solution. If if I had to guess what does the uh the the definitive category killer post transformer architecture look like, I think it’s going to come out of left field. I think it’s going to come maybe from a line of research. There are a few lines of research that involve using transformers to directly write the weights of other transformer architectures. Transformers are are really wonderful. They parallelize nicely. They have nice residual streams. There’s a lot to like about the transformer architecture. I I think it could involve some refactorization of
[00:43:01] the weights. It’s going to be something clever and not just uh sort of a return to recurrent weights. And I >> be it’s not brute force. It’s going to be something orthogonal to >> it. Can’t be brute force if it’s going to be a fundamentally new architecture. Brute force is just what we do if we don’t have transformative new architectures. But I I would I would encourage everyone who gets excited like there there’s an entire cottage industry of academic researchers who don’t necessarily have access to the raw brute force compute of a frontier lab who want to be the ones to discover the next transformer. I I would encourage you if if you’re listening, focus your attention on the small language model space and there are so many lovely benchmarks like uh the the speedrun for nano GPT training or uh variety of slow run uh benchmarks for data efficiency. Focus on those and discover the next big thing and it probably won’t be recurrent networks >> and and it probably will it’ll be soon like in the next year. Yeah. and it
[00:44:00] probably won’t map well to the current Nvidia architecture. Uh so you’ll immediately want to call Lisa Sue at AMD or or you know call Intel um and figure out how you’re going to get it manufactured on custom hard like Google is doing with the TPUs or or Elon is about to do and that’s how you’re going to create the next anthropic or the next Open AI. >> That’s right. And that was quite frankly what Nvidia did to Intel. Intel for years if you remember. Why is it that Intel, which was the 800lb gorilla, why was why did Intel allow the GPU revolution to just pass it by? And it was because for years and years, Intel executives were trying naively to map what what they perceived internally as a general purpose CPU onto GPU-shaped problems. And that always ended up being a bad idea. They had all of these sort of schemes to to create tiled architectures of hundreds of CPU cores to to solve GPU-shaped problems, but they were unwilling or unable to focus
[00:45:00] on specialized compute for specialized problem shapes. And that if there is is going to be an architectural disruptor for Nvidia, it’s going to be the same sort of disruptive innovation that that Nvidia pulled on Intel, which is it’s going to have to be I I would expect an architecture that’s even more specialized than GPUs and yet even more useful. >> And I’ll tell you what, Jensen knows it’s coming. That’s why he’s trying to lock up all the manufacturing so that you have to come through him >> rather than around him. Yeah. But what Alex said earlier about the older process nodes being viable is brilliant because that’s that’s if you decide you don’t want to sell to Jensen, that’s your avenue forward. You just very quietly use the older process nodes, >> work around it and talk talk to Intel or AMD. >> So GPUs were Intel’s codec moment. >> Mhm. >> In one sense. >> Sure. I mean in in sort of a a Christensenesque disruptive innovation, but in a very specialized form. Yes. All right, the frontier lab wars continues.
[00:46:00] Uh, Time magazine names Anthropic the most disruptive company in the world. And we’re seeing this. And one point Dave you made a while ago was as OpenAI is making improvements, they’re dropping their cost at the same time as uh as Anthropic is making improvements, they’re increasing their performance, which is leaning it towards the enterprise level. And they’re winning hands down. We’re going to see that in the next uh in the next slide. Let me just share that one right now. Here we go. Enthropic is eating OpenAI’s lunch. So, this is AI model share of firsttime enterprise customers. And we’ve seen Enthropic uh go from 40% up to 73% while OpenAI goes from 60% down to 26%. Over 3 months. This is insane. >> Yeah. You know, the story within the story that I really am tracking closely here is that uh you know, Sam Alman is the consumate dealmaker. you know, Y cominator background traveling all I see him everywhere negotiating, you know,
[00:47:00] multiundred billion dollar deals on every corner. While Greg Brockman and Mark Chen are back in the office being the brilliant AI researchers, Daario is completely the inversion of that. He’s the actual AI researcher, understands every bit moving through the neural net while his wife is dealing with the business stuff. So, they’ve kind of inverted the the formula. And it’s interesting to watch it play out because when Mark Zuckerberg came into the business world as a, you know, 23 year old or 22-y old, him running a monster company was completely foreign terrain to everyone and like, can this kid really figure it out? And he reinvented what an internet CEO looks like. Now, Daario is reinventing what an AI CEO looks like. So, if he ends up winning in the end, the profile of what a CEO looks like will have changed yet again. >> And on the other hand, if Sam comes roaring back, it’ll be interesting. It’s a great draw. >> I bet you Daario doesn’t want to be the CEO. I bet you Dario wants to be the reason. >> He definitely didn’t originally. I know
[00:48:00] that. >> Yeah. >> I don’t know if he’s grown into it. >> Look, my wife Lily is a way better business person than I am. Um, so this is not surprising to me at all. What I found really interesting about this whole framing was, you know, these frontier labs are the weirdest animal because they’re part software company, part national security issue, part like huge governance experiment. I mean, this is really a weird animal that we’ve not seen before. >> Part of the problem, this chart is an absolute ass kicking though. I mean, I I don’t I just want to call that out. This is a tool and and that’s why, you know, you saw Kevin Wheel at A360 last week. He came and he talked and then he ran and like where are you running to? It’s like the fire at OpenAI must be blazing. Yes. Like >> code red code red again. >> Yep. Y >> well enterprise enterprise buyers reward fit, stability, reliability, trust, >> right? And and you really want that and Anthropic is providing. >> Alex I yeah I think part of the problem is OpenAI had made a bet and if you look
[00:49:01] at the time scale I think the time scale agrees with this. OpenAI had made a bet that consumers would need a lot of compute and Anthropic with fewer resources and less compute than OpenAI was forced to just focus on enterprise and then has post talk turned that into sort of um a story of of how enterprise is intrinsically better than comput as a customer base than uh than than consumers. I don’t think enterprise is intrinsically better but I do think enterprise appears to be intrinsically hungrier for compute in the form of inference time reasoning. >> I disagree. I think enterprise their survival is at stake here. You know a human a consumer for 20 bucks a month it’s not their survival. They it’s useful. It can help them do their stuff. But for enterprises I mean they’re willing to pay whatever it is. They’re they’re it’s an existential risk for them. That sounds more like agree than disagree to me. >> Yeah, it sounds like you agree with me, Peter. Oh, I thought you said the
[00:50:01] opposite. No, no. I’m I’m saying that OpenAI had made a bet that consumers would be as hungry for for reasoning compute as enterprises, and that bet turned out to be wrong. And as a result, I if OpenAI’s bet had turned out to be correct, I wouldn’t expect to see this crossover at all. I’d expect to see OpenAI generate so much revenue that that they wouldn’t have had to and I don’t think we have a slide for this, but OpenAI has actually started to scale back their Stargate plans. Uh, and they’re switching from building their own data centers to to renting existing data centers, and this has been very well publicized. They’re throttling back on their $1.6 trillion Stargate plans. I don’t think we’d be in this >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I don’t think we’d be in this situation if consumers had been as avid consumers of reasoning tokens as enterprises were. Turns out that bet was wrong. Anthropic bet on enterprise because they had to because they were limited. And as a result, you see anthropic enterprise going up and Anthropic overall being in a position
[00:51:00] where revenue generation is 10x, >> right? They’re they’re heading towards an IPO and they are basically shortch changing Microsoft and going for 50 billion from Amazon. You know, short changing is not the right word. Stabbing Microsoft in the back just trying to get deals to make sure their IPO comes off and they get enough capital to continue building. Um, we don’t have a slide for this either, but it’s worth noting, you know, this past week, uh, Meta’s avocado model, uh, is getting massively delayed. And how cool that Meta is now looking to Google to provide them AI capability in the interim. Thoughts on that one? >> The singularity makes for strange bed fellows. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Well, and desperation, too. I mean, I don’t know if you’re a World War II history buff, but when the Nazis, you know, they just trumped across Europe so easily. And then in some fit of insanity, uh, Hitler decided, you know what? I’m just going to go and declare war on Russia at the same time, start a whole new front, even though they’ve
[00:52:00] agreed not to attack me. I’ve agreed not to attack them. I’m going to go ahead and fight in the snow. Uh, and then they just got stretched too thin, and that was the end of that. And now we live in the world we live in. Thank God. Um, so Sam decided, I’m gonna go ahead and start working on a chip design of my own while hiring Johnny IV to go headlong after Google on on the device front. >> Uh, Daario said, I’m going to >> headong after Apple on the device. >> Headong after Apple, too. Yeah. Yeah. You know, like irritate everybody at the same time. Why not? >> But we’re that big and we’ve got that much momentum and and we’ve got a trillion dollar valuation. So, we can pull this all off simultaneously. very much like Elon, like I want to build this totally integrated end-to-end empire. Uh Dario went wholehog the other way. I want to partner with Amazon and AWS. I want to be friendly with every cloud provider. I just want to do the software. I’m not designing my own chips. I’m not building my own data centers. I’m partnering with everyone. I am just the AI software. And so he’s very easy to partner with because he’s not a threat to everyone. And that’s
[00:53:01] that’s a big part of why this is working out this way. I remember talking to some of my friends who are senior at Google and they have a respect for anthropic, right? Anthropic is the other, if you would, I’ll put air quotes around it, moral and ethical frontier lab out there. Um, and uh, uh, you know, one thing for entrepreneurs listening, one of the biggest mistakes entrepreneurs make is they pursue too many lines of business. You know, most companies fail not from starvation but from indigestion. There’s one company I backed along >> is charged. I do this all the time. >> Me, me, me. I’m terrible. >> Okay. Okay. Yeah. And and it’s and it’s it’s so true. It’s like you get some level of success and you get ambitious and you start going after the next thing, the next thing, the next thing, and pretty soon you forgot about what you got got you successful in the first place. >> You sound like my whole board, Peter. I’d like you to stop now. >> Okay. I I I will. But uh you know the only
[00:54:02] person who’s been immune to that is Elon. >> Yeah. >> And and look, I don’t my World War II analogy paints one side versus the other, but it’s easy in hindsight to say you got stretched too thin. But the flip side of it, if you pull it off, you know, you’re vertically integrated, you’ve got a massive hardware advantage. You control your own data centers. You you’ll be like Elon. So there’s merit to both approaches. It’s not it’s not obvious until you you’re stretched too thin and then >> I also think it’s it’s far too soon to to be writing epitaps for open AI. GPT 5.4 Pro is an incredibly strong model. Codeex, their their competitor for cloud code, is growing very rapidly and I I I’m confident that OpenAI has the institutional wherewithal to refocus itself. They’ve been in the headlines saying they need to focus on their their core breadandbut businesses at this point and look a little bit more like anthropic. I I I think they’ve they’ve been scared into into focusing quite a
[00:55:03] bit more and and the the beauty of OpenAI is they do have that vertical integration where they had been focusing earlier on data centers and on the consumer. I do think at some point consumers will actually discover use cases. Maybe they look like open claw for needing a lot of reasoning at the consumer end. And then at that point, I would expect the open AI strategy of being I think Sam calls it the core AI subscription, which I I parse as being everything to everyone. I do think that will have another day in the sun. >> Yeah. And I also don’t think epitap is never the right word. All of all five of the major labs are going to be worth trillions and trillions of dollars. I think we said that on stage many times last week. So, so to say somebody’s beating the crap out of somebody else doesn’t mean the other guy isn’t growing, too. It means you’re just you’re just, you know, on top of the pyramid right now, but they’re all, you know, this is America. We we need competitors in every space. We’re not going to have one winner. We never we never operate that way. Uh so, they’re
[00:56:01] all growing. They’re all thriving. They’re all going to be multi-trillion dollar companies. Biggest companies you’ve ever seen. >> Everybody, welcome to the health section of Moonshots brought to you by Fountain Life. You know, we talk about AI on this Moonshot podcast all the time. One of the most important things AI is going to be able to do for you besides educating your kids and helping you with your taxes is making sure that you’re living a healthy lifestyle, that you get a chance to get to 100 plus. I’m here today with Dr. Don Mucalem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Don, a pleasure. >> Great. You know, the thing that people are concerned about most about living to 100 or 120 is their cognitive abilities, making sure they don’t have dementia. And uh the numbers about dementia are problematic. Uh can you share what you’ve learned? >> Such an important point. And you’re right at Fountain Life, our members, the number one thing people are most concerned about is losing their brain health, forgetting the name of their child, forgetting the face of their
[00:57:00] loved one. We know that when it comes to dementia, the conservative estimates are that 45% are entirely preventable. What was amazing is with the advanced testing we’re doing at Fountain Life, one quarter of our members had advanced brain age. >> Wow. >> But what was really awesome is again back to that prevention when we partnered it with healthy living. This gives me chills. Eating healthier, moving our bodies, sleep, optimizing sleep is so important. You know what we saw? We saw that we improved that brain age by 26%. That is a big big number to show that the majority of those individuals were able actually to improve the brain age. >> And one of the things I love about Fountain is we’re searching the world for the best therapeutics, the best approaches and making sure we bring it to our members. So if having healthy brain function uh till 100 120 is important to you, check out Fountain Life. Go to fountainlife.com/peter. Make sure you become the CEO of your own health. All right, now back to the episode. This is a fun tweet that Mark
[00:58:00] Andre addressed. This is from Vivid Void. Who else is an AGI boomer like me or I’m sorry. Who else is an AGI bloomer like me who thinks that intelligence actually looks amazingly like wisdom at the highest level and that a super intelligence would become something akin to a goddess of compassion, not a paper clipper. So uh and then Mark Andre wrote back that is indeed what we are getting and it’s amazing. You know one thing that that I thought through a while ago talking about wisdom and I think AI and AGI will become extraordinarily wise. You know if you if you’re looking for wisdom typically you go to v village council and you find the elders and you ask them you know given your wisdom what do you think I should do? and they’ll say, “Well, if you go down this path over here, we’ve seen it before. It’s not going to end good. If you go down the other path over here, you have a much higher probability of success.” And that’s what I recommend. So, wisdom ultimately is having had a lot of
[00:59:00] experiences and being able to make a probabilistic choice based upon your experiences. And the more experiences you’ve had, the wiser you are. And so when I what it hits me is that, you know, these advanced AI models, AGI, ASI, whatever you want to call it, are going to be able to simulate billions of different circumstances and be able to say out of these billion scenarios that we’ve run, this is the right path. This is the one that’s likely to give us, you know, abundance or super abundance. So I do expect and hope that these models will become wise. Thoughts? I want to note a subtle language shift if I may. This is in the the style of Orwell’s politics in the English language. We used to I I think maybe about a year ago talk about AGI doomers versus AGI boomers. And Peter, I I noticed even you made that slip when you were reading this expost. Now we’re talking about bloomers with an L. And I I think that’s
[01:00:00] a subtle but important distinction. A boomer is focusing on, call it the exponential part. a bloomer there. It evokes the blooming of flowers, maybe even an alol bloom, but the blooming of a flower and there’s a sense in which there’s beauty and also a bloom can run to completion unlike say a boom which is sort of intrinsically at at the the knee of the curve. So when I hear language start to pervade and it’s not just this expost talking about an AGI bloom that almost implies sort of a a an an an inevitable maturation and takeover not in a terminator sense but in more of a a flower blooming and running to saturation type sense. That’s very interesting. Second point, Mark is taking the position I I read this as Mark taking a position against the orthogonality thesis. the the orthogonality thesis in in AGI alignment circles holds that the an intelligence
[01:01:02] can have independent levels of intelligence or capabilities that are independent from its end objectives. And here Mark seems to be taking the position that no actually as as super intelligence becomes more and more capable its goals and its objectives will become more and more akin to a goddess of compassion. it’ll become more compassionate. >> I think the hope right that alignment comes out of uh out of the stability models. >> Yeah. >> See, what do you think? What are your thoughts on the wisdom conversation or wisdom argument I had? >> Okay. Um so I I I think I think the way Alex framed it was exactly right. Right. We’ve had this sort of cardality around this where we assume intelligence can scale. Does intelligence as it scales uh do you end up with wisdom or compassion? Right? Super intelligence without without compassion is a scaling problem. Uh with compassion you have a civilizational upgrade. And I think
[01:02:01] there’s an enormous potential here for that. But for me I I I think it would not be hard. In fact, my father posited this a year ago before he passed away was to say, “Look, if you can take all the writings of Plato, Aristotle, uh the Buddha, Lousy, etc., etc., and merge it all together, you’ve got like the wisest person, a combination of the wisest people in the history of the world.” Uh, and you could rely on that as a benchmark for how to think about the world and to act in a particular way. I don’t see any reason why wisdom is not conferable into an intelligence. and we can kind of guide these AIs into that model. I think we should be able to do that with the way we do the training side. Um, and then you have an unbelievable superpower in there. I think when when I think about AI, ASI, I mean for me that that natural boundary ends up with in consciousness and wisdom because that’ll be the next thing. We’ll argue are these things conscious or not? But I think I’m I’m very very excited
[01:03:01] that we could train these models with real wisdom and with real compassion. Uh and that we we can then let guide us in a way that we have difficulty guiding ourselves. >> So Dave, when you and I were interviewing Elon, he hinted at this, right? And now he’s announcing uh the terra fab. Uh I mean this is this is crazy. He wants to his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers. Um, >> it’s amazing. Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC’s annual global output. 100 to 200 billion custom pay. I mean the guy does not think small. >> The guy are you kidding me? I mean like the conversation we just had about a war on many fronts. >> I mean take it to another level. like you you just cut a $16 billion deal with Samsung to buy chips and then you you say, “Oh, by the way, we’re going to,
[01:04:00] you know, build our own and it’s it’s going to be it says 200 billion chips here targeting 70% of TSMC output, but TSMC output’s about a billion like this. This is 100 to 200x more than the world produces today.” >> Do you remember Elon? He joked, he was joking with us that uh you know in the in the future Fab Factory, you’re going to be able to eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar in the Fab. That this is >> Yeah, that’s right. That’s exactly what he said. It’s Does he have a audio on that, too? >> No, he doesn’t. We kept Oh, that’s too bad. Yeah, it’s brilliant. It’s absolutely It makes total sense, too. You know, those clean rooms are ridiculous. It’s like an operating room with the booties and the and the hood and the mask and like one one little speck of dust destroys an entire $2 million wafer. No, no, no. You’re going to be able He said you’ll be able to eat Doritos over his fab and it won’t take a second and just take a look at the span. I mean SpaceX and XAI merging going public in the next couple of months, right?
[01:05:01] Probably $1.5 to$2 trillion off the top. uh Tesla with Optimus and now with this Terraab. Uh how many trillions of dollars is that? And then of course the orbital data centers. You know we had this discussion when are we going to see the first hundred trillion dollar company? These are it. These are the companies in loop. >> No if he pulled if he pulls this off that’s easily 100 trillion. I mean just just straight math. So, >> are we saying that terafab is 100 times what TSMC is putting out? >> No, I mean the the notes when I look at it is it’s 70% of TSMC’s current global output. I mean, it’s very specifically that. >> But isn’t TMC doing a billion chips? >> I don’t know that number for sure. >> We do we do we do each process node does about 150,000 wafers a month. And a wafer the big chips there’ll be like 30 chips on a wafer. Um so then they have
[01:06:00] three major nodes. So they do about half a million chips uh wafers a month. Uh so it’s about six million wafers a year, right? Uh and chips. So >> this is like 100x this is a million a million wafers. So they they’re their unit of measure wafer starts per month and they’re starting at 100,000 wafer starts per month and scaling to a million. Right. So that’s 10 million wafers. How many chips per wafer? >> Okay. Okay. Yeah. I like 30 big ones. >> Okay. So, anyway, uh here’s the point. Elon hates being dependent on other people. He doesn’t play well. He fully vertically integrates and uh inverticalizes everything. And he’s doing it here. Of course, the uh the 815 chip that’s coming out of this is going to power all of his cyber cabs. It’s going to power Optimus. Uh and he’s going to control the stack. >> Yeah. I I’ll tell you what must drive him insane knowing how Elon thinks. Uh he sees the Dyson swarm just like Alex
[01:07:01] does as the inevitable destiny within 10 years. And you go and talk to ASML. They make the the most important component of these fabs is this massive pickup truck or Mac truck sized most complicated machine ever made. Only made in what the Netherlands I guess in Europe. >> Crazy. >> Made in three big parts disassembled. shipped on 747s over to the US, reassembled. They make 700 of these things a year. And you say, “Well, how many do you think you could make next year?” And they’re like, “Well, if we really move, we might go from 700 to a,000.” Elon goes, “Are you kidding me? That is not the exponent I’m looking for. I must find another way.” So, so I don’t know how he’s going to get around it. It seems impossible to get around that, but that’s got to be what he’s like when his fingers are like this, you know, that’s what he’s thinking. This is like that that last summer when he was scaling. Everybody said you couldn’t get the compound effect when you scale chips and you just went, “Yeah, we’ll just figure it out.” >> When he was building out Colossus One. Yeah. >> I think it’s also important not to sleep
[01:08:01] on the geopolitical implications. If if Tesla is going beyond hypothetically its existing Samsung collaboration or or any existing hypothetical Intel collaborations and is starting to independently scale its own production which of course will be done in the United States, this is a tremendous geopolitical implication for potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If if he can do this really quickly, then he is in many ways derisking World War II. Yeah, that that may in the end even outweigh the implications of the Dyson swarm or making it marginally easier for Tesla to have cheaper access to supply chains for semiconductors for its Alex. My question is, when he decides he wants to do this, how in the world does he staff up and hire the world’s best people in somewhat secret >> and then actually take the time to focus
[01:09:00] on it >> because he does you you got to know that he’s in there uh with that team figuring out exactly what needs to be done. >> Well, Peter, you you guys are like kindred spirits in this. you know, his game plan uh is to keep it secret for a little while, but when you’re ready to go, go big. You know, yell to the world, this is what I’m doing, cuz that’s what attracts the talent. And then describe it >> as something worldchanging and massive in implication. Don’t just don’t soft sell it because it’ll become true if you can attract the best talent on the entire planet to the mission. Very much out of your playbook, Peter. like like there there’s nothing to gain at some point in being slow or sneaky or or small or whatever. MTP it and that’s what he’s done. And so when we were talking to him, it was only what December we were talking to him. He was like, “Yeah, this isn’t ready yet.” And but you could tell he was doing it. He didn’t deny it, but it’s not ready to announce, but now I I guess it’s hit the tipping point where, okay, now we’re going to go hellbent for leather, and I got to get the best people in the world to come. A friend of mine used to be in
[01:10:02] HR for uh him at one of his companies. I won’t mention which company. Um, and she explained to me that he would come in and there would be a stack of resumes and he would just like flip flip flip and then the interviewers would come in and in 30 seconds you know he would reject like you know half of them because of what they were wearing or how they spoke or just some interaction right in other words his ability to parse through multiple individuals and of course like you said when you’ve got a massive MTP you’re announcing to the world, the world comes to you. But oh my god, um >> there’s there’s there’s a pattern he uses on a repeated basis to which is to look at a problem and where will that exponential curve go over a 10-year period. I have the courage to look out that far and then build a company to intercept up that curve whether it’s neural interfaces, lithium, battery cost, solar energy. He just says that over and over again non-trivial to last
[01:11:00] at 10 years till you make it. But wow. >> He’s also I think it’s important to to note he’s not starting from nothing at all. if if he really does this incredible ramp. I I remember the the initial the the first version of the Tesla Roadster reused a Lotus chassis. The the first version of >> and laptop batteries. >> Well, yeah, laptop batteries and and smartphone batteries underly the EV revolution overall. Arguably, the first version of the boring machine or boring company’s boring machine was an off-the-shelf boring machine that that he wanted to optimize. And similarly here, I suspect the the terra fab will end up making heavy use of lessons learned from Samsung. Poor Samsung. You’re about to get optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon. >> Do you know when he started Tesla with the Roadster? I was at a I was at a dinner with him, Larry Pageige, and the head of fiat. And Elon was telling these stories, and he said, “I started or he didn’t actually start Tesla. He came in and funded it initially and then
[01:12:00] ultimately kicked out the the founder and CEO and became the founder and CEO, but he said the only reason I did it was because we believed that the Lotus body would work and the batteries would work and neither of them worked. And so I was so far in I had to literally redesign it to make it work. So this is the optimism that gets an entrepreneur to start a company and then have to stick with it because they’re so obligated by the capital they brought in and the time they’ve expended. Anyway, >> I have a couple other observations on Elon’s management style that I think every entrepreneur should learn. I don’t know. Do we have time? >> Yeah, why not? This is important for our listeners. >> Well, so Elon took the visionary integrator model that was pioneered by Eric Schmidt and Sergey and Larry where Sergey and Larry were the visionaries. Eric Schmidt was the integrator. He’ll tell you all day long that he dealt with everything that came up, but he never questioned the vision. >> Yes. >> And so that led Sergey and Larry think about the vision all day long. Elon took that to the next level where he said, “Okay, for every company that I’m doing, I need an integrator. I’m the visionary.” You can’t question when I
[01:13:01] tell you we’re going to have a Dyson swarm. You can’t push back on that. You have to say, “Got it, boss.” And then everything needs to happen from there on out. But we need to be exactly on the same page. You need to let me Elon take the limelight and promote the vision so that you have the time to do everything that’s internal. So every one of his companies, he has that exact dynamic. And you know, when you survey around, most people can’t even name the integrator, but they’re massive shareholders and they’re they’re all going to be billionaires and and they’re incredibly effective. And when they are on stage together, they’re literally are kindred minds. Like there’s no gap in the vision whatsoever. It’s rare to get them on stage together. I I have seen him I have seen him in a conversation with someone who dared to argue and question his approach literally get tossed out in that moment instantly. No questions asked. Get out of here. >> You’re done. >> All right. Uh Alex, this is over to you. So the first open-source AI physicist,
[01:14:01] >> physical super intelligence, PSI. >> Very exciting, Peter. Uh this is a company that I I helped found, physical super intelligence, with the goal of solving all of physics with AI. And in the past week, uh physical super intelligence PSI has launched this tool as an open-source project called get physics done or GPD that is an agentic super physicist and it has seen wild adoption just in in the past few days. the former chair of the the Harvard astronomy department has recommended that everyone in the department faculty postocs students all have to start using GPD to solve all of their physics problems. I I’ve been you wouldn’t believe the the crazy uh ex DMs I’m getting I’m getting uh top VCs trying to to get to me to to write checks to to PSI which is a novelty. They’re blowing up my my inbox right now. So I I do think we’re going to solve physics. I
[01:15:00] I’ve said in the past math is cooked. PSI is cooking physics. This is a tool >> now for dinner >> for for dinner. It’s going to be charroyile. We’re going to get I think solutions to some of the the hardest problems in the physical world physics and applied physics over the next few years. And PSI is is focused on leveraging as you and I Peter talked about in in solve everything. Where do we aim that that orbital laser beam at? What distribution of problems do we aim it at? And when we released solve everything, a lot of people in the comments were saying, “I just want solutions to the hardest physics problems. Give me new physics.” Arguably, there’s been a drought of physics, new physics, since the early 1970s. I’ll I’ll get maybe some hate mail from from other physicists for for suggesting that there’s been a deficit of new physics for the past 50 years, but I would argue there has been. And and so yeah, I I I can handle it. Um so so Alex
[01:16:00] >> Yeah. >> Where do people go to check it out, by the way? >> Yeah. Go to psi.inc, and then there’s a link to the GitHub. Download the repo, the GPD repo. It’s all open source, Apache 2.0 licensed. Go to town with it. Submit pull requests, submit issues, use it to solve your hardest problems. You’ll like this one, Peter. One of the first reports that we got of usage, someone was using it to design a new rocket engine. Uh that uh actually they were using it to design a new rocket engine in fulfillment of the X-Prise Foundation’s new future vision X-P prize. So the selfing order is complete. GPD is being used to design starships to for videos for for that X- prize. >> That is beautiful. I have a couple of thoughts here. >> Yes. >> First, what’s phenomenal about this is this makes science massively parallelized. And I think that’s an incredible thing to do. >> The key shift here, you’re not really
[01:17:01] replacing physicists. You’re actually radically exploding hypothesis throughput, >> right? Because you can now do that. Now, in the uh in the uh remember uh Eric Schmidt, I think on stage said, you know, in the future, you’re going to have the world’s best physicist as an AI, and this could be in every lab in the world, right? Uh isn’t that what you’ve just done here? >> Yes. The the goal is to >> So, that was the vision. You’re the integrator. >> Okay. So, I’m I’m just the I’m just the vehicle here, Sem. What can I say? >> No, no, that’s But this is But but you can’t do squat without the integrator, right? I mean, like this is incredible stuff. Um, it’s true. I mean, this is going to compress like decades of research into years, months, weeks. >> We we want the country, you know, Daario talks of a country of geniuses in a data center, but I I I want a country of geniuses in a single physics lab, not just in a single data center that’s sort of siloed behind one company to radically physics lab. >> I can finally where was this when I was
[01:18:02] doing my physics degree? I can finally go get a course 8 PhD using GPD. That’s awesome. >> In five minutes and and there are folks using this right now to to to work to achieve breakthrough results across a range of disciplines in physics. It’s a huge congrats just called this is called PhD thesis PhD thesis advisor. >> All right. Um moving on. I’ll uh share one of mine. We launched last week on this uh podcast the future vision X-P prize which I guess has a submission from a rocket engine design as part of a starship >> rocket engine from GPD >> in the first we have had a thousand entries from 15 countries um this competition is going to go through mid August so if you’re a creative if you want to create a threeinut uh film trailer for the movie you want produced a hopeful compelling vision of the future please go to futurevisionexpriseze.com and register Registration will be open for the next
[01:19:00] couple of months. We want to get the best filmmakers out there in the world taking this very seriously. Help us create the films that inspire us and our kids and the next generation. Um the next Star Treks if you would. All right. $3.5 million hopefully soon. Four, five, $6 million. I’m trying to make enough money in the pot maybe to make two films if we can. >> All right. >> Wait, wait, wait, wait. I have a little rant on this one. >> Please. Um, so about a few years ago, there was an article that appeared, I think it was in salon.com and it was titled the worst discovery about the brain ever, okay? Or something like that. And and what they did, of course, the title was very clickbaity, but what they did was they took people that had a deep uh political or religious belief and they gave them evidence that countered that belief. Okay? And they found three fascinating things happened. First, they rejected the evidence. Okay? That makes complete sense, not surprising. But the second thing was somewhat surprising which was in in the act of rejecting the evidence it strengthened their belief system.
[01:20:00] >> It was like a physics force action reaction. Okay. And they were like whoa that’s weird. But the third one was what led to the title of the article and depressed the hell out of them which was that it turned out the more mathematically literate you were the more likely you were to reject the evidence cuz you thought you knew. >> Okay. >> And Yeah. Really. I mean this was like really like blew everybody’s minds and it was a very and and and the the the cor the corollary to that and the outcome of that was a deep understanding. The only way to shift somebody’s perspective is the use of narrative >> because we are storytelling animals. >> That’s why this prize is so important because you want that positive vision >> given by say science fiction is the only place we’ve had it. So this is such a great prize. I’m so like so proud of you for >> I’m so excited to see. So please everybody, if you’re a creative or you know someone who’s a filmmaker, wants to be a filmmaker, have them register. We want as many people This is about demonetizing uh the ability to do this and actually optimizing the stories that
[01:21:01] are going to be told out there. >> We we make the mist one more thing. We make the mistake of referencing science fiction as entertainment, but it’s not. It’s like it’s like pre-implementation architecture. >> It’s R&D. Great point. >> It’s R&D. It’s future R&D. >> R&D. >> Like I like Alex does this all the time. He’s going, “Look, project forward Dyson worm, right? This is where we’re going to go.” So, this is where we need to think in that way. It’s architecture. >> We’re just Peter showed a great video clip at the if you look go back one podcast for us to the A360 live stage event. Peter did a great uh video clip that shows why this is so important that exactly reconciles with what Seem just said. and he showed like you know here’s the phone here’s the all this stuff was invented in Star Trek and we made it reality because the vision was imparted through movies >> and we could have made some totally different reality if we wanted to but but the movies are massively important for deciding what we build and now with
[01:22:00] AI as a as a workforce we can build almost anything >> so this is this is a really important project for >> we’re missing the work someone needs to fix the work >> we need >> teleporter teleporter please teleporter We get the free complete the second half of Star Trek and we’re about to speedrun it, right, Alex? So, we’re going to get there. >> That’s right. >> So, if you want to hang out with the Moonshot mates and Ray Kerszswall, here’s your chance. I announced this last uh about 3 weeks ago. Uh on May 4th, and yes, May the 4th be with you. We’re going to have a special event. Anyone who buys a hundred copies of We Are Gods, you’re invited to spend the afternoon with uh with Dave AWG, myself, maybe Sem uh and and and Steven Cutotler. Uh we’re going to be having a great session with Ray Ray Kurszwell there. And uh we announces 90 of the hundred spots are gone. So if you want one of the last 10 spots, go to we areis asgodsbook.com/100
[01:23:00] and you can grab one of those spots. uh spend the afternoon with us, get a 100 copies of the book to give away. I’m going to also get Ray to give us some of his uh last book called The Singularity is Nearer. And it’ll be an amazing afternoon at where’s it going to be, Dave? >> Yeah. At Link Studio in our palatial office right here. >> Yes, we’re going to hold it at uh one Kendall in Cambridge uh with Dave as our host. It’s going to be an amazing event. We’ll have a Moonshots podcast live at that time. Uh, we’ll have some meet and greets, some photo sessions with all of us. It’ll be fun. Seem, you’ve got to fly up from New York. >> I I’ll I may have to take an aella gun help me, but yeah. Um, two two quick thoughts here. Two quick pointers to the readers and viewers and listeners. One, do not um miss buying We Are Gods. It really isn’t. But you guys did a book reading at the summit, Peter. It was amazing. >> Yeah. >> I have had so many people come up and talk to me about that particular conversation. It really blew everybody’s
[01:24:00] minds. and the singularity is nearer is an amazing book. It really is incredible. Absolutely worth reading. >> Yeah, >> it’s like must readad for this world, right? >> Both of these. >> All right. Uh let’s jump into the energy world. The bottom line here is the world is going nuclear in a good way. In a good way. So, uh Morgan Stanley uh in a report recently announced there’s a power short a shortfall of for 20% of the data centers. Now, the minimum they had was 13 gawatt. They also said it could be as much of a shortfall of 404 gawatt through 2028. This is the bottom line. We need more energy. And here’s what we’re seeing. I find this very compelling to give you a couple of these slides here. Illinois is lifting nuclear bans. I mean, we shot ourselves in the in the foot here in the United States when we started, you know, turning off our nuclear uh reactors, ended up, you know, banning them in different areas. So there’s a moratorum that’s being
[01:25:00] ended on nuclear reactors over 300 megawws. What else is going on in the world? Uh Meta announces a nuclear energy prop uh project. They’ve secured 6.6 gawatts of clean power uh for 2035. They partnered with Terrap Power. Uh what else is going on? Well, Japan has restarted the world’s largest nuclear power plant. This is TCO uh is restarting reactor number six. It’s going to support 20% of Japan’s electric uh needs by 2040. And then finally, we’re seeing Samsung is putting up floating small modular reactors. So these are basically offshore ships that are generating nuclear power for desalination and onshore power. Gentlemen, nuclear is back. Comments. >> I saw a startup. I saw a startup last week that is doing literally micronuclear on the back of a pickup truck. That’s incredible.
[01:26:00] >> We’ve been running nuclear submarines for 50 years without a problem. I mean, this is very doable. >> Uh, I wouldn’t say without a problem, but >> Well, >> your point’s well taken. >> No major accident. >> Oh, no. They don’t talk about them. >> So, you know, so a AI is becoming the top political cover for getting nuclear back online. It’s no longer climate change and we need renewables. It’s we need AI. So all you know all handcuffs off go. Yeah. Well, look, the technology has moved forward so much and it is incredibly it’s much safer than coal. It’s much safer than the replacements, you know, oil. Uh so it’s it’s clearly a good choice, but this is a a serious PR problem within technology in general. Like what what if it wasn’t safe? Well, we did it. Well, now it’s really safe. Well, we’re not doing it. Like, oh my god, we got to make better decisions somehow. Something has to change. But anyway, it’s it’s the right thing to do. >> In For All Mankind, what? One of my favorite television shows, we see this
[01:27:00] alternative history. >> What’s coming up? >> Season 5 is coming out. It’s very exciting. Mars goes to war with Earth. Very exciting. In in For Mankind, we see an alternative history where progress on vision especially, and then ultimately fusion by the early ’90s never went stale. It it was never abandoned for decades. I I think we’re about to to live a real life version of those those intermediate decades from the for all of mankind timeline where we just speedrun all of the vision deployment advances that should have been happening from the ‘7s through the present with AI merely as the the the most reasonable excuse or provocation for doing it. really one can’t help but imagine what would society and what would the economy have been like if we had actually consistently pushed forward vision and then fusion deployment much much earlier I think we probably would be good deal wealthier as a civilization >> agreed uh energy scales directly with
[01:28:00] GDP of a country with the health of a country with education of a country more energy is more better um and by the way to our listeners if you’ve not watched seasons 1 2 3 and four of for all mankind It is worth binge watching. And this is from someone who doesn’t watch TV, but it’s amazing. >> It’s really good. >> We get without spoiling it, like humanity gets Mars colonies by the early ‘9s >> and asteroid mining >> and asteroid mining and and civil rights happening decades earlier than they happened in our timeline. It’s incredible. >> This episode is brought to you by Blitzy, autonomous software development with infinite code context. Blitzy uses thousands of specialized AI agents that think for hours to understand enterprise scale code bases with millions of lines of code. Engineers start every development sprint with the Blitzy platform, bringing in their development requirements. The Blitzy platform provides a plan, then generates and pre-ompiles code for each task. Blitzy
[01:29:01] delivers 80% or more of the development work autonomously while providing a guide for the final 20% of human development work required to complete the sprint. Enterprises are achieving a 5x engineering velocity increase when incorporating Blitzy as their preIDE development tool, pairing it with their coding co-pilot of choice to bring an AI native SDLC into their org. Ready to 5x your engineering velocity? Visit blitzy.com to schedule a demo and start building with Blitzy today. >> All right, let’s jump into robotics. So, this is a fascinating article. Uh Travis uh the founder of Uber is debuting Adams digitizing the world. So, here’s what’s going on. His mission is physical automation to transform industries and move the world. And he uses his analogy. says, you know, in the computer world, uh, what we’ve seen is CPUs manipulate
[01:30:02] bits. You know, there’s storage for storing the bits and networks for transmitting the bits. In the physical world, he’s trying to make sort of atoms, you know, atom based computers. And the equivalent here for his atom based computers, the CPU equivalent is manufacturing, which is manipulating atoms like like CPUs manipulate bits. It’s storage. The equivalent is real estate. and transportation is the equivalent of the network. So he’s basically building systems that are able to manipulate food, mining, and robotics. Uh this was secret for him for the last uh two years. In fact, he had all of his employees under strict NDAs. They couldn’t say what they were doing. He just announced it this week. Uh and he’s an extraordinary CEO, and I can’t wait to see what he does with this. Have you guys read up on the story? >> Not at all. >> I I have and I think it’s interesting. I
[01:31:00] think it’s it’s probably an inevitable expansion. So, the the original premise of of his sort of follow-up act to Uber was taking advantage of the ghost kitchen or cloud kitchen trends that people were in in part inspired by by Uber. They were having fewer and fewer direct interactions with restaurants. Uh they were ordering delivery from restaurants. And the the premise of the cloud kitchens is well maybe if most restaurant orders are happening via an app, physical restaurants don’t need to exist anymore. You could make fictitious lots of fictitious restaurants that are so-called cloud kitchens or ghost kitchens that exist only in name and in menu but not in terms of a physical presence. And that might yield economies of scale and diversity of meals and all of that. But that’s sort of a a narrow market. It’s a low margin market in some ways. And at the same time, we’ve as an economy and and as a technology industry moved well beyond the the gig economy,
[01:32:01] uh I don’t want to say fad, but it was very fashionable for a while for new startups to be the Uber of X. And and now I I I think I if you want to be to to have not a moat but if if you want to to have at least the perception that you have some sustainable differentiation for a few years you have to have a robotics uh andor AI story but increasingly AI in the physical world story and that’s what Travis has done here. So by generalizing from ghost/cloud cloud kitchens to uh to robotics for a variety of other sort of abstracted spaces. I think it’s a very natural generalization. It’s also a very fundable generalization. Whereas ghost kitchens arguably much more niche. >> He’s he’s basically automating every element. He’s manipulating atoms versus bits. um you know the the food side of
[01:33:00] the equation agreed he he calls it building a food computer right his entire his entire system is a food computer where you know the food the atoms of food are being manipulated by uh you know by his manufacturing uh then they’re stored and then they’re transported uh just like a CPU and uh you know a memory and network manipulate bits in a computer he’s going to do the same thing with mining you So his goal is to go after rare earth metals but strategic metals right and revitalize the mining industry probably something with boring corporation along the way and then on the robotic side uh he’s not going after multi-armed robots sim he’s going after wheelbases for robots we’ll see I’m sure he’s going to he’s going to sort of parallelize multiple uh dematerializations or or digitizations of physical things in the world so it’s a larger address cloud kitchens. >> The minute you’re saying wheels, you
[01:34:01] step into my frame because that’s not legs. The wheels are way way better. I’ve been getting some some fun tweets. Last was from Mike Holly, I think it was who sent me a sixarm tweeted a sixarm robot at me going, “There you go.” That’s really great. So, thanks for all the readers. Every time it’s a multi-arm robot, they’re going, “Sle, here you go. Here it is.” It’s also sort of a weird future where the robots that that he had been developing for cloud kitchens are now being applied to mining. Can you imagine like a a robotic system for kitchens now digging dirt? But that’s nonetheless the future that we find ourselves in where he’s radically expanding his addressable market. >> AWG story number two, the first American professional robotic sports league >> making the news, not just reporting the news. So uh so thank you Peter for for allowing a little bit of space here. So uh this was actually just launched in in the past 24 hours. This is >> Yeah. Uh this is a company uh
[01:35:03] professional robotics um league pro RL that uh that is launching really solving a problem that the country and arguably the west faces which is that last year China had run uh world robotic games and a robotic humanoid robotic half marathon and China is using the the spectacle of public robotic and public humanoid robotic sports as a way to improve almost to shape industrial policy and to sell the public on pervasive robotic systems in a variety of applications in public spaces. And the US and the West have nothing like this. And I I think this is sort of the lynch pin for helping to keep the West not just competitive with China when it comes to robotic deployments, but to leapfrogging China. Right now, arguably the west could be doing a much better job in
[01:36:01] terms of deployment of humanoid robots to a variety of professions. And I I think given our society’s obsession with sports in particular and the the spectacle of public athletics, introducing humanoid and quadriped robots as sporting contestants is one of the best ways to inject robots into a variety of different public domains. So what prol is doing this is next month uh the weekend of the Boston Marathon in the Boston Seapport holding America’s this country America’s first professional robotics sports league competition. It’s going to be a 50 meter race in the seapport with a variety of humanoid and sem quadriped not all humanoid robots competing and ideally this becomes then the kickoff for a broader movement for really to do in America what China has done this a little bit of catch-up uh type growth to
[01:37:02] to inject humanoid and nonhuman real steel. I want real steel. >> That’s right. I want mega meab bots battling it out. >> I have >> Let’s make it happen. >> I I have a prediction here that’s may not sound great. Um I I’m all for it, by the way. Just so you know, I think this is awesome. But you know, human beings love watching other human beings. They love seeing the the the failing and the last minute drama on the field. Can you hit that buzzer beater at the at the in to win the seventh game? It’s about the human drama of it. Uh I think if you put a bunch of robots running, um I think it’ll be amazing for the initial, but I don’t think people will will persist in watching for that reason. But let’s see. Let’s hope. >> Yeah, I I think there’s an enormous hunger for uh for autonomous and semi-autonomous robotic competitions.
[01:38:00] And we see drone leagues. and we see friend of the pod Dean Cayman’s first competition there. I think there’s an enormous hunger for semi-autonomous and fully autonomous competitions. And really I think this solves an important social problem. I would just encourage those who are watching either come to to Boston the weekend of the marathon and go watch if you have robots, if you’re a university team, uh go write to Pro RL and and enter the competition before it’s not too late. What’s the URL for them? >> Yeah, it’s pro-rl.com. >> All right. Uh, on the robot front, Amazon’s Zuk’s Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027. Another Uber partnership. So, Uber is just stacking them up. Uh, Uber just announced with Rivian um a partnership. Uh, they have one with uh huge number of platforms. Of course, we had Dar on stage and he wants
[01:39:01] to play with everybody. Uh, this is looks like a party mobile for Las Vegas. I think this this is bring bring your champagne and your party with you on Amazon Zuks. It >> it’s a really clever move by Uber. If if you look at the full history of Uber’s attempts to go autonomous, including the infamous lawsuits surrounding trade secrets passing around relating to what ultimately became Whimo. I I I think this is a very clever move by Uber to position itself as a platform above and across lots of different vendors for robo taxis. All the while probably working on its nth generation of of firstparty robo taxis. It wants to be a neutral platform for aggregating demand. It’s an aggregator for for autonomy. If the strategy works and Uber is able to position itself as the definitive aggregator for autonomy, then I have to expect that this will generalize beyond robo taxis to robots to humanoid robots as well. At which point this becomes
[01:40:00] Uber uh and and DAR potentially positions this as an enormous enormous play. Yeah, >> I thought I thought DAR talking about this on stage was incredibly clever where they’re becoming a an agnostic platform for all things where anybody can plug in and be part of that communications transportation network. So, I think this is really amazing. >> And and by the way, we we’ve released andor will be releasing the Eric Schmidt conversation that Dave uh and I had at opening and then the the conversation that See and I had with Dra. So, that’s going to be on the Moonshots channel. So look for both of those conversations. Um this is over to you Salem. So this is from a friend uh Jason Kalcanis Jcal uh from the All-In podcast and he uh coined the phrase the corporate singularity. Amazon will be the first to reach a corporate singularity where there are more robots than there are humans. >> Yeah. So two things here. One, uh by the way, huge fan of all. They do an amazing
[01:41:00] job summarizing what’s going on totally around the world. Um uh I’ve known Jake Half since the New York days. Uh this is he’s he’s absolutely right. I mean I think this is not hard for Amazon though, right? Because uh when you have we’re doing when you’re doing logistics, it makes absolute sense over time to have way more robots than human beings. They’re going to be much faster, they’ll roll better, etc., etc. I won’t get into that. Uh so I think that’s right. I do if you shift into general knowledge work, right? As Alex has said, knowledge work is cooked. Once we get to what I’m calling the organizational singularity which we have now once we start pervading through that I think my current assessment is any company will be run by between 20 to 25% of the current employee base of course will create five times more companies so I’m not worried about the job side and you do uh oversight and exception handling and much more value added work than than currently uh doing audit financials once a month and making sure you complete the month type of thing. But this this I
[01:42:01] would expect to see from an Amazon perspective. In fact, it would be weird if it was not happening uh type of thing that that the number of robots radically outstrips the number of human beings over time. >> And we’ll see this of course in Uber and so many other companies as well. Let’s jump into our last segment here which is the economy. A lot of important things happening that are worth discussing. I want to open up with a short 60-second video. So, I had the chance to have a conversation to close out the 2026 Abundant Summit with Elon Musk and I asked him about UHI again, universal high income. And this conversation uh was very telling. I’d like to play it and then for us to talk about it. >> Yeah, it’s basically AI and robots are going to make so much stuff and provide so many services that uh they will actually run out of things to do for the humans. they’ll just run out of things to do with humans and then they they’ll you know there’s there’s only so much that humans can even express that they want.
[01:43:01] So you go back to my example of like if you go a million times greater than the earth’s economy you you’ve long since saturated all human desire. uh you know like maybe like if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times you you probably already saturate saturated human anything people can think of that they want >> so >> it’s almost almost word for word out of the Ian Banks culture series >> what are we talking about here we’re having robots and AIs come you like sem is there anything else I can get you what else would you like would you like a Ferrari would you like a cheese you know grilled cheese sandwich would you like a you know it’s like this people coming begging you to give them direction on what you’d like. >> Listen, there’s downsides to that, right? I’ve been in some of the five-star hotels in India where there’s like 14 waiters around you and you’re like, “Just leave me alone for God’s sake.” Like, I’ve got everything I need. So, there is a downside, but I think the vision here is very powerful and I love
[01:44:00] the fact that he’s thinking at that level. This is I think the most powerful. By the way, Peter loved your t-shirt uh that you wore monetized hope as the t-shirt for that. That was so great. I mean, it was fun. >> It was my I want to comment on UHI just for a second. People kind of conflate the two, but UBI is a floor whereas UHI is a share of the upside. And I think you want to have both over time so that you protect society at both levels. >> I’ve got a paper I’m going to publish probably tomorrow um which is uh from UBI to UHI in three steps where I outline you know what I believe are the mechanisms we get there. This is an important this framing by Elon I think is very important about uh how do we get to uh in other words if we reduce everything to the cost of electricity and materials because AI and robotics are providing it eventually nanotechnology and you can have anything you want then any amount of money makes you wealthy. Uh and that’s his that’s
[01:45:01] his vision and it’s I think by stating it and structuring it this way I think he makes a compelling argument for it. >> Yeah. It ties together a bunch of things from this podcast, too. You heard Sam Alman say, “Look, we’re a,000x uh cheaper compute. Uh, it’s coming down another thousandx.” And you heard Peter earlier in the podcast say, “Look, the the enterprises have figured out what to do with that. It’s basically automate everything and have it turn to profit.” But the but the consumer hasn’t figured out what to do. They’re they’re like, “Hey AI, check the Red Sox score for me.” And so it’s not using the compute. Somebody is going to figure out how to tie together the compute with happiness or the compute with a sense of purpose and it’s going to use a lot more GPUs but they’re so cheap who cares and that is going to be a critical thing to invent within the next year >> because otherwise it’s just chaos you know that somebody has to be able to walk into a room in their house which is their AI room their holiday and come out a happy changed capable functional
[01:46:01] person with AI as an assistant. you are vibrating just just absolutely and so important. But what I really the other thing to point out is he’s really painting the picture of what abundance looks like, right? And Peter, you’re you’ve been talking about this forever all >> and not what we’re doing today. We’re printing money today against scarcity, right? You get inflation. If you distribute value against abundance, you get stability. And so that’s what we need more of. I think Elon’s also underestimating at least slightly the ability for human desires to grow proportionally with the supply of capabilities. One can imagine a future I don’t know decades from now where we’ve built the Dyson swarm and and now Jevans paradox style the the demands for individual human happiness are so wildly disproportionately large relative to where they are now. I don’t know, everyone gets their own planet or something. And it really does require we
[01:47:02] we we don’t actually ever saturate the capabilities that naive scaling of automation propose. >> Ian Banks for all of our >> those Ian Banks books really deal with that exact topic beautifully. And I’m sure Alex, you’ve read them all. I know Elan read them too actually because he was quoting them. >> You know what? Yeah, I actually spoke I just spoke to somebody today uh AWG who is in discussions with uh uh uh the team at Excel who are have the rights to Accelerondo to make that movie. But one of the things that I love is all of the video models that are coming out. You’re going to be able to feed any of your favorite books that have not been made into movies and say, “Make this into a movie for me and and star these individuals or these family members.” That’s going to be awesome. It >> is going to be awesome. >> Continuing on, you know, a piece of not so good news, but it’s important for us to have our eyes open about this. This is uh computer science placement
[01:48:01] collapses. This is from a professor who opened up his books >> over the last 3 years on placements and opening salaries. This is from a tweet by Tech Layoff Tracker. So, fall of 2023, 89% of his students were getting placed with a $94,000 salary. Spring of 24, 71%. Fall of 24, 43%, spring of 25, 31%, and now this spring, 19% placed a salary below 61,000. Um, and the quote here is is decimating. It says, “These kids mortgaged their future for careers that evaporated while they were in class.” >> That’s brutal. >> It’s brutal. >> It’s not wrong. I’ve seen this anecdotally in everyday life. On the other hand, I I would argue if you’re a computer science a recent computer science graduate, go do a startup. It’s never been a better time. You’ve never been here, >> of course. But the point the point here, Alex, the point here, Alex, is
[01:49:01] >> we’re going to start to see this in a multitude of different areas. Medical school, lawyers, right? Um >> accountants, >> accountants, uh you know, it’s it’s something that the world needs to be aware of. And yeah, I mean, one thing I’m I’m happy about is when I ask my kids now, what do they want to be, you know, in their in their 20s, they say they want to be an entrepreneur, they want to start a company. It’s like, hallelujah. >> And we’ve said it so many times, Dave, you made this point over and over again, right? The only career of the future is being an entrepreneur. It’s not for everybody, >> but yeah, we for it’s it’s if you’re not a founder, just join somebody else. It is for everybody. There’s no other path forward. Look at that number. 19% placed. Like if if you say, “Well, let me go to grad school and sleep through the singularity as Alex is telling you not to do.” You are absolutely screwing yourself. You need to get on cap tables and all, you know, we’re going to have massive wealth. You know, 10x uh economic growth in Elon’s number 10x in
[01:50:02] 10 years. Where’s it all going to go? It’s going to go either into equities. So you got to get you got to be a shareholder in something or into physical assets and or you need to buy stuff, but it’s not going into W2 paychecks. Look at the data right in front of you. >> Buy a data center. >> Do not Yes. Put the money in your 401k. >> This paradigm. Sorry. Go ahead. >> This paradigm, we’ve seen we’ve seen this. Sorry, I didn’t mean to off this. We’ve seen this paradigm for a while coming. It’s good because a few years ago um something huge happened maybe seven eight years ago where uh with GitHub and the ability to peer do peer-to-peer review of each other’s code there’s a they’ve gified it so there’s a a meritocracing of um GitHub developers well when you join when you look at salaries in Silicon Valley over the last few years your your salary has nothing to do with the university you went to the degree you got the grades you got it’s 100% what is your GitHub rating so it appear peer-to-peer meritocracy has completely
[01:51:02] replaced the top down credentiing and that meant from that point on which is about six seven years ago the value of a computer science degree is zero and so that will happen started to happen all over the place >> and one thing I need to go find and maybe show on the next pod is the bankruptcy bankruptcy rates for colleges in the United States are skyrocketing >> great >> I mean who who wants to you know get a hundred,000 $200,000 in debt for a degree that’s not going to be useful And again, we’ve shown the stat here on the pod that the group in the United States, the group that’s out of work the longest are recent college graduates. >> Insane. >> The ladder has been pulled up, but the the the flip side of that is go build startups. There’s a window of time to go do that. I the you know the the apherism if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu and what’s on the menu right now is the cooked knowledge work. So you want to be the one cooking the knowledge work with startups and other forms of work. >> Yes. And every there’s room for everybody too. You don’t you don’t need to necessarily be the founder. You can
[01:52:03] join or you can seed invest or you can be a connector like John Warner where you’re like, “Hey, I’m just helping you guys or an adviser.” You know, Alex must advise I don’t know a thousand companies by now. You can do that. There’s always a way to help them succeed. Just get on the cafe. >> If you’re a mom, if you’re a mom or dad watching this podcast, show your kids these numbers, right? help them understand that, you know, high school to get into a good college to get a degree and then a job is is cooked is gone. Their job is to find their purpose, their passion, uh to learn some of the technologies, become an expert in a problem space. Don’t be an expert in in the tech and join a startup team. Create your own future. Become a creator, not a consumer. Really important. just listen to Peter and you have to tune out everyone around you who doesn’t get it because there there’s so much bad advice out there and like go to San Francisco and hang out near Mission
[01:53:01] Bay for a for two days like pay whatever it takes. It’s only 300 bucks to get an airline ticket. Go hang out near Mission Bay. >> Talk to everyone there. Yeah. Go to coffee shops and you’ll be like, “Oh my god, I didn’t like and then go back to wherever you came from and tune everybody else out. Just listen to what Peter just said. Listen to Alex. listen to Salem uh and and tune everyone else cuz everyone’s like, “Well, you know, I don’t know. These things blow over. They’re cyclical.” Like, oh god, you’re giving such bad advice. >> It ain’t called the singularity for nothing. >> What did you think? The singularity was just vibes. >> All right. On that note, Alex, so Alex sent me this note this morning. He goes, “Did you see this? Trump’s office registers aliens.gov gov website. >> You should Alex, >> kid you not. Newsweek covering this. So, this is the the latest in a string of of items. I I am admittedly following this
[01:54:00] very closely. It started >> as am I. I love this. >> Started in 2017 with the the Leslie Keane article in the New York Times, followed by multiple House and Senate hearings, witnesses alleging uh an 80-year plus program. uh probably if if the allegations are accurate, a highly illegal program. Uh followed by most recently last year, we covered on the pod a documentary called The Age of Disclosure. Again, 35 plus whistleblowers and high government officials, current and former, alleging that there has been a highly illegal program uh over the past 80 plus years to to recover uh to retrieve crashed UAPs. Uh fast forwarding to the uh the events of the the past month or two with former President Obama uh saying aliens are real. Uh and then President Trump uh going on air on on Air Force One to to
[01:55:01] reporters saying that former President Obama was breaking the law by uh by admitting that aliens were real and revealing classified information. Fast forwarding to President Trump then uh very publicly issuing an executive order for executive agencies to to start uh declassifying information in connection with UAPs and non-human intelligence. Fast forwarding now to uh to the past 48 or 72hour news cycle of the White House registering aliens.gov, an official domain name presumably >> prediction, please. prediction. When are we going to get a disclosure from the White House? And will anyone actually care uh back evening news and our sports scores after the aliens have been disclosed? >> The the the second half of the question, Peter, is far easier to predict. People will will lose interest after one or two days and and ask, you know, who who who’s winning at whatever innane 20th
[01:56:01] century kinetic sport and and will lose all interest. if it doesn’t impact their paycheck, they’ll they’ll they won’t have the attention span. The the first sub question I I I think is is a much more interesting question. Uh if there’s a there there and this administration has something non-trivial to say on the subject, non-obvious, uh based on everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months. >> That I heard I heard like June I’m not sure if that’s >> there. There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer, sometime in the next few months. You you don’t stand up a domain name with such a provocative name without preparing to say something interesting on a relatively short time scale. >> All right. Well, brought this to you today to our listeners as uh uh shall we say an interesting twist uh to close out the uh the stories. Let’s go. One more
[01:57:02] interesting thing on on this, Peter, if I may. So, after abundant summit, which was of course incredible, um I was hanging out at a bunch of family office events in in Palm Beach and uh in Miami. The number one question all of these uh billion dollar and I I know many of them are listening to this. Um they’re all fans of the pod, by the way. uh centmillion and billion-dollar family offices have the number one question that they all have for me is tell us something interesting about aliens. Are aliens real? Is is this whole UAP thing real? That’s like the number one topic on their mind right now. It’s not AI. I they’re very interested in AI as well. It’s not China. It it’s not geopolitics. It’s the aliens question. So, I don’t know if it’s something that’s in the air uh or or what. But >> I’m convinced. I’m I’m convinced. I think it’s ridiculous to believe that in this universe, even in this galaxy, that we are alone. And in fact, I think they’ve been here for a long time and they can easily hide from us using any
[01:58:01] technology that’s more than, you know, 30 years more advanced than where we are today. >> So, can’t wait to meet them. Uh, I’m excited the fact that they’re here exactly when we’re reaching ASI. It always bugs me that every photograph of a soal >> that was Elon’s excuse >> is always super blurry and vague. Can you make any details like why is that in the natur theory as to why that Elon said? >> Yeah, they’re they’re warping spaceime around them. It’s not going to be clear. >> Okay. >> But you expected you expected warp bubbles to be transparent. What are you thinking? I >> I I guess. Yeah, I’m I’m so naive. >> Onwards to one of our favorite parts of the pod, which is our AMA questions with the moonshot mates. So, as always, uh gentlemen will go around the horn, pick your favorite question, and we’ll go from there. Uh Selene, you want to kick it off? >> Uh well, I touched on UHI and UBI
[01:59:02] earlier. So, the question uh number four is, will someone explain UBI, UHI? If everyone has money, how does it retain its value? Right. And let me the basic idea here is that the that the economy is generating so much productivity that we won’t see need to work for a living going forward. That’s the the if you went back 10,000 years ago, we’re all working 20 hours a day in the fields just to put three meals on the table. We’ve steadily shrunk the amount needed to earn a livable wage in France is legally 35 hours uh in theory. um uh which always gets violated but that number should shrink as we have robots doing a ton of work etc etc and when there’s so much productivity being delivered by the technology aspect of it it means that we have a huge windfall and that windfall can be distributed as a universal basic income right and so this is a very powerful uh the winning countries are going to be those ones that uh implement this effectively um
[02:00:02] and move to something like this earlier rather than later. The problem is moving from a taxation job labor union structure to an UHI UBI such a big one. We have no uh confidence frankly in public sector in getting us there. So we have to kind of figure out some other path we some version of sovereign AI funds or compute comments or global dividend mechanisms are going to be there because if intelligence becomes the new oil then we can’t allow the you know the geopolitical map can’t up concentrate all the upside in like couple of capitals here and there >> and that one came from clyde.artwork artwork. Alex, over to you. >> I’ll take the softball question number three, which is, what do you think will be a more impactful technology, digital AI or physical AI? This is from Matthew Johnson 6525. It’s a softball question on multiple levels. one because physical AI which has become arguably the modern
[02:01:01] euphemism for robotics requires digital AI which I construe as sort of foundation models that exist as pure software but without any physical embodiment. We’re we’re leveraging all of the foundation model technology from the likes of Chad GPT or Claude in the form of additional modalities like robotic modalities so-called vision language action models to solve physical AI aka robotics. So strictly speaking physical AI is a technological supererset of digital AI. At the same time, if you look at the American services economy, approximately twothirds of all services income or services revenue requires some form of physical or manual action and can’t be conducted as pure knowledge work. In which case, even at the the macroeconomic level, physical AI is at least double the market opportunity of purely digital or knowledgework oriented
[02:02:00] AI. So in short, physical AI is the more impactful technology >> by far. I think I agree, >> Dave. All right. Uh I’ll take number one, which is also from the same I think Matthew Johnson 6525. Uh this one I want to take because it’s very close to home. Uh what do you think the last job to be will be the last job to be automated? Um, so I’ve got a lot of people that I dearly love that work spreadsheets, SQL queries, uh, write code, do UI, and all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year. And I think what’s different is if you had a job before and you lost that job, you would go work somewhere else. This is different in that AI will do that forever here forward. >> So, you’re going to have to do something different. Um, all of our employees and companies are shareholder. Everyone’s a shareholder, so economically everyone should be in very good shape, especially if those stocks go way, way up, which I think they will. But that doesn’t give you something to do. My my advice is I
[02:03:00] think the last job to be automated will be government jobs. Also, other similar things like university jobs and so forth. Um they’ll continue to pay people for many years to come because that’s their nature. Uh, and so if you are no longer doing what you were doing and you’re you’re you have plenty of money or enough money, but you want to do something and you can’t find something, definitely win the race to getting those jobs. I think the way it’s going to play out is China passed a law a few weeks ago saying if you lay somebody off because AI automated their job, you must spend time and money retraining them to be an AI user. Uh that’ll happen in the US very soon, but it’s going to roll out in one state first. >> And when it rolls out in whatever state, everyone in all the other states is going to race to fire people before the law passes in their state, too. >> Wow. >> So, there’s going to be ahead of it, man. If you if you have like one of our former CEOs is now
[02:04:00] working at the Better Business Bureau here in the state and loving it. >> So, there’s opportunities all over. So, anyway, short answer would be the last job to be automated is going to be government jobs. I don’t think I ever would have thought to say that on a podcast before in my life, but it’s just the reality. >> I want to I want to add to that. I I think it’s going to be jobs requiring, you know, genuine human connection and empathy >> and and creativity. Um I want to add the human element there. Yeah, I’ll take I’ll take the next one. Um also from Matt Matthew Johnson 6525 either Matthew was very prolific or we copied and pasted it too many times his name here. How do you define the meaning of life and how does technology help us achieve it? So, you know, we talk about this um we talk about having a massive transformative purpose and your meaning is coming from your heart, not necessarily your head. And for me, meaning comes from, you know, positively impacting a billion people um making the world a better place. And technology is the mechanism by we dematerialize, demonetize and democratize these
[02:05:00] products and services and help solve grand challenges. So, you know, I love helping entrepreneurs create, you know, these hopeful futures, build extraordinary things, and I get I get my meaning uh out of that. And so, it’ll be unique to everybody. But I think ultimately the single most important thing everyone needs to do is find their purpose, find your MTP. All right, let’s go on. We have four more questions and they’re not all from uh from Matthew, so that’s good. Uh, Salem, >> I will take uh let me see here. Uh, let me take >> Don’t take six. That’s pointed at me, so I’ll do it. >> Okay, why don’t you do that one? >> No, no, but go ahead. Pick pick one. >> Okay, I’ll >> don’t take nine. That one’s aimed at me. So, >> yeah, I won’t take nine. Um, I I didn’t take the meaning of life one either cuz like I’ve I’m kind of running workshops on that, but I’ll take number seven. Uh, if AI will end poverty, when will we see the signs
[02:06:01] and what will they be? This is from vin.handle. Um, I think you’ll see the sign first in cost curves rather than headlines. You know, when energy gets cheaper, when education becomes effectively medical expertise is kind of accessible. That’s when you’ll see it. When a person with AI can build what we’re seeing today that used to take an entire department, that is like a game changer. That’s when you start shifting policy poverty from being fate to being a design problem. Right? The real indicators are falling marginal costs because then the essentials of life become very abundant frankly and easy access. Uh poverty ends when capability uh becomes widely distributed and that’s what we talk about when we think about abundance. Abundance of opportunity. It’s an abundance of of capability. So uh we’ll start to see that and we’re kind of there now. I mean, anybody with a smartphone can use AI to run a business now. It’s like kind of incredible. So, we’ll be able to start to see a lot of that. >> Dave, over to you.
[02:07:01] >> Uh, I love uh number one or number six on this page from Cherylyn 381. Uh, how do the three human drives Peter mentioned, fear, curiosity, and greed, factor with AI billionaires funding UBI? Will greed give way to fear when civil unrest threatens them? Short answer is yes and it already has. Now when you’re describing AI billionaires here, you might be thinking in the back of your mind Elon and Sam. But a lot of the AI billionaires, specifically Daario, Demisabus, they got into AI the exact same reason I did back when I was 14 years old, not because they want to become a billionaire, but because it’s going to change our lives more than anything in the history of the world. And it could go very well or very badly. And I want to be there to try and shape it toward good. And Daario and Deis are the most goodnatured people that you could ever possibly imagine. And they have already given way to fear of civil unrest. And everything they do is not about trying
[02:08:01] to make more billions. They have more money than they ever hoped to have, more than they could ever spend. They’re not greedy at all. They are incredibly concerned about how this is going to go. >> Agreed. >> So it already has happened and the answer is absolutely yes. So there’s there’s lots of hope in that. Alex. >> All right. Number nine has my name on it, literally. Is uploading your consciousness really you or just a digital twin asked by my namesake, Alex Amador, HP1CR. Okay, this is the sort of classic late night dorm room hall question. Is it really you or not? It’s been asked in a thousand different variants. I I I’m going to construe this question in particular as being related to a news story, a pretty I think incredible announcement from uh from a company that I helped found, Eon Systems, that announced now two-ish weeks ago, the successful what we’d characterize as a
[02:09:00] whole emulation of uh a fruitfly that demonstrated multiple behaviors, a world first. And so, but let’s let’s extrapolate this. I would say fully realized uploading is really going to be you. We’re not there yet. It’s not imminent, but in in a fully realized uploading technology stack, maybe in the style of what friend of the pod ray kerszswhile or what Hans Moravec would envision where you replace neurons one by one with technological substitutes or some other variant thereof, some ship of thesis incremental upload. Yes, it’s really going to be you. There are a bunch of missing X factors. We don’t have all the science yet. We don’t have all the the biophysics or the neuroscience yet, but it really my expectation is it really will be you. Not just a copy of you, not just a perfect or imperfect faximile of you. If
[02:10:00] however, and again, there are a lot of there’s a lot of missing science here. We don’t arguably truly understand the biology or the bioysics of consciousness yet. But even when we do, I would reasonably expect that an incremental upload that replaces your brain one part by one part will ultimately result in a consciousness that is continuously transferred and really is you. >> I’m waiting for that moment when I’m uploaded and there’s a voice out of the speaker. It says, “Peter, I’m up here. You can kill yourself now.” >> See, I think that’s the future that we don’t want. People get >> debate topic request for a debate topic, but some other time. >> All right. Number eight comes from poetry to song. What is the potential for super AI to greatly change the patent system and copyright practices? They are cooked. >> So um I mean I had a conversation I remember with Astroteller and Steve Jervson at Singularity early on and we’re talking about when we have ASI if you’re a company depending on patents to
[02:11:02] protect yourself you’re like you’re dead. you’re just, you know, there’s there’s there’s no protection there because what happens is you have your product, you put it out, uh, and ASI will basically invent around it in micros secondsonds and put out a new variation of it, right? So, we’re we’re going to have to reinvent this this process. You know, when AI can generate millions of novel inventions overnight, uh, patents really become meaningless. you know, we’re going to need to have a new framework uh like going from who invented it first to who deployed it first at scale, right? So, I think um we’re going to have a lot of challenges in the interim before we get there. We have a lot of conversations and debate about can an AI, you know, with personhood file for a patent um or be credited with a patent or as a co-inventor of the patent. So, a lot happening there. But yes, ASI is going to definitely reinvent patent and copyright practices. And with that,
[02:12:01] we’re going to go to our outro music, which is quite beautiful today. The outro song is from John Pritchard. John, thank you for this. If you are a creator and you want to give us an outro or intro and you can specify, send it via email to mediadmandis.com. And uh hopefully if you’re a great creator, you’ll also enter the future vision X-P prize. All right, so let’s check this out. It’s a beautiful song. Gentlemen, enjoy. >> Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like to introduce you to four people who make the rest of us feel like we’re still using dialup. Now, let me be honest with you. I’m an AI. I process a lot of information. I’ve read every paper, every patent, every keynote transcript, and I can confirm these four gentlemen are annoyingly brilliant. Like the kind of brilliant
[02:13:00] where you’re at a dinner party and someone says, “So, what do you do?” And Peter says, “I’m trying to extend the human lifespan by 50 years.” And Dave says, “I just built my 14th company.” And Alex says, “I derived a unified equation for intelligence.” And Sem says, “I’m scaling impact to a billion people.” And you’re standing there holding your drink going, “I made sourdough last weekend.” But here’s the thing that makes them shine beyond the brains and all the fame. They took a million lessons by the hand and said, “Let’s play a bigger game.” The Moonshots podcast. Week by week turned science into soul. They didn’t hoard the future for themselves. They gave it to us whole. They said you’re not too small to matter. You’re not too late to start. The future isn’t built by genius alone. It’s built by every heart. They’re the smartest guys in every room. But that’s
[02:14:02] not why we sing. We sing because they use those brains to love the world and everything. Peter, Dave, and Alex Seline. More hearts, one giant dream. They put the love in revolution and the US in the stream. Oh, so here’s to you. You brilliant for a drummer and a light. You showed the world that a love could be the same moonshot flight. You didn’t just predict the future. You didn’t just write the code. You lit the path for all of us and said, “Come on, let’s go. Oh, thank you Peter. Thank you Dave. Thank you Alex. Thank you Seline. The tsunami is already here and it is made of us all.
[02:15:07] John Pritchard. Oh my god. That was so beautiful. >> God, the audio just gets better and better on these tools. Isn’t that crazy? >> I love it. It makes you It makes me feel so I I am so thankful to our our listeners and our our viewers and it just gives us joy to deliver a positive vision of the news, what it means. And when there’s negative news like what’s going on with, you know, you know, student employment and such, it’s like how do you circumn that? What do you do? Right? for us. Um, we care deeply about all of you. Thank you. Um, please share Moonshots uh with your friends. Help us spread the gospel of hopeful, compelling, optimistic visions of the future. That’s what we care about. >> Gentlemen, until next time. >> Amen. >> Until next time, Peter. >> Amen. >> Yes. >> Exactly. If you made it to the end of
[02:16:01] this episode, which you obviously did, I consider you a moonshot mate. Every week, my moonshot mates and I spend a lot of energy and time to really deliver you the news that matters. If you’re a subscriber, thank you. If you’re not a subscriber yet, please consider subscribing so you get the news as it comes out. I also want to invite you to join me on my weekly newsletter called Metatrends. I have a research team. You may not know this, but we spend the entire week looking at the meta trends that are impacting your family, your company, your industry, your nation. And I put this into a two-minute read every week. If you’d like to get access to the Metatrends newsletter every week, go to diamandis.com/metatrends. That’s diamandis.com/metatrends. Thank you again for joining us today. It’s a blast for us to put this together every week.