audience and uh as you can see um still trying to monetize hope. >> Yeah. Uh you look like you’re in great shape. >> I’m doing great. Last time >> any like uh sort of youth serum things going on or what? >> It’s uh it’s our longevity x-prise. We’re we’re getting there, buddy. We’re getting there. And I think I think in our last conversation uh you’re getting on board with the idea of extended longevity. Yes. >> Uh yeah. >> Okay. [laughter] I’ll leave it at that >> some degree. I mean, like I don’t know if we wanted everyone to live forever or whatever, but I think uh health span and and not uh you know, having an extended period [clears throat] of scinessence where where you’re just drooling on yourself sounds like a good idea. We we want to avoid that. >> Yeah. So, first off, congratulations on the merger of SpaceX and XAI baller move. Uh going to power humanity’s first Dyson swarm. So uh I’m curious uh >> uh it truly it truly is. Uh what’s your
[00:01:00] timeline for launching these data centers and how much bandwidth do you think you can get in the first year? Give us a sense of uh the speed at which you’re going to be making this happen. >> Uh yeah, so SpaceX is um has filed SpaceX is in the quiet period. I I can’t actually uh tell you things that would cause problems. Uh yeah, [laughter] >> I’ll I’ll leave it I’ll leave it at that. I appreciate that. But uh can’t wait for uh for the speed. You know, we had a conversation here on Monday with uh with Eric Schmidt uh and with uh uh one of the leads from one of the other hyperscalers. I won’t mention who, but I’m curious where you feel we are in recursive self-improvement. Are we there? Do you see Grock uh doing recursive self-improvement at this point? And how and what’s the timeline for AGI and ASI? Give us a sense of
[00:02:00] that. >> Yeah, I think we’re we’ve been on recursive improvement for a while here. Um, you say if it’s fizzing, if you mean by like recursive self-improvement without a human in the loop, is that what you mean? >> I do on the on the AI software side. I mean, humans are gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement. So, you know, every successive model uh is is built by the one before it. So that that that is happening to a large degree, but it’s it’s not yet fully automated. Um it may be there end of this year, but not later than next year. And do you see a hard takeoff at that
[00:03:00] point? >> We’re in the hard takeoff. >> Okay. >> Right now. >> Yes. I mean, look at uh I mean, at this point, I go to sleep, there’s some massive AI breakthrough, and when I wake up, there’s another one. >> Yes. >> Yeah. It’s hard to keep track, honestly. So, it’s a bit of a head spinner. >> Yeah. Well, I think a lot of the head spinning is happening from you, too. >> Yeah. Uh well, you know, Grock’s doing pretty well and in some metrics, by some metrics, it’s the best uh for example, it’s uh the best at predicting things, which you know, it’s arguably the the best metric for intelligence. Um the new Gro 4.20 is it’s really really good. Um we’re we’re currently behind on coding. Um, the reason I was a bit bit late for this was that I was just in a gi giant
[00:04:00] sort of all hands on coding just going through all of the things that need to happen to uh essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding. Um, which I think I think we’ll do. I feel, you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year. Um and uh and then I think people don’t don’t quite understand just how much intelligence there will be or you know just how far it will exceed human intelligence to a degree that is uh impossible to fully understand. Um but you could certainly imagine a situation where we let’s say let’s say a million times more energy is harnessed uh than all of Earth’s current electricity usage. That would still only be a roughly a millionth of the sun’s energy output. So essentially if you increase Earth’s
[00:05:00] economy by a factor of a million it’s still roughly a trillion. Since we’re a trillionth of the sun’s energy, if you increase Earth’s economy in terms of electricity usage by roughly a million, you will be roughly 1 millionth only of the sun’s energy harnessed. But but what is what is what does an economy or an intelligence using a million times more electricity than all of civilization think about or look like or do? It’s going to be something pretty magnificent. uh the challenge will be even vaguely appreciating the that level of intelligence. >> But it’s it’s safe to say it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes. >> Uh longevity being, you know, certainly one of them. Um and um I I I do enjoy your unrelenting optimism. Um >> thank you. >> I see I see you’ve uh >> hope hope. >> Yeah, exactly. You’ve taken to heart monetizing hope. Uh, which is pretty
[00:06:01] funny. >> It was up with that one. >> It was Grock’s It was Gra’s marketing advice to me when you roasted me on [laughter] roasting you and saying you monetize her. But hey, if you’ve got a further monetizing misery, I suppose. >> Yes. >> For sure. >> So, yeah. >> Um, but but yeah, just the when you when you have AI AI and robots are gonna increase the like economic output or or by by so many orders of magnitude we we we cannot possibly comprehend it. >> We’re likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet. Um >> yes, not even on this planet but in the solar system. >> Yes, for sure. Because um like like if you know your best case outcome for
[00:07:01] uh earth for intelligence is roughly 1 billionth of the sun’s energy. Uh that’s your best case outcome. Uh if you if you if you generate intelligence only on earth >> intercept it right. >> Yes. Yes. Because roughly one rough roughly half of the sun’s energy hits earth and that’s the vast majority of energy that that’s out there. um that that we can access. Uh so uh really the intelligence in the solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than the intelligence on earth itself. >> How can I ask a question Elon? Um how far out can you see? How many years out can you make reasonable predictions? Right now, >> it’s hard to predict the the path exactly, especially if it because often things are kind of an
[00:08:00] S-curve uh or a series of S-curves where it starts off slow uh grows exponentially, hits linear zone, and then goes logarithmic. Um that generally has been what what I’ve seen with breakthroughs in in AI. AI for example is you you’ll there’ll be some breakthrough it’ll do uh have an S code but and then it looks like it’s just going to go to infinity but then you hit logarithmic returns until there’s another breakthrough. >> Yeah. >> Um so progress in AI is just a sort of series of you know sort of overlapping S-curves um or connected scout out a decade or two decades. What are your thoughts now? >> Yeah. >> Okay, this is going to sound pretty crazy. >> It’s okay. We We’ve been We’ve been
[00:09:01] talking about crazy receptive audience to wild prognostications. >> Yes. Um, [snorts] I’d say the economy is 10 times the its current size in 10 years. >> Greater than. >> Okay. >> Um, >> yeah, you >> really saying something. >> Yeah, you had said uh tripledigit growth in in five plus years from now on on GDP and 10x the economy. But in terms of your ability >> like I feel like that’s that’s that’s a 10 10x and roughly 10 years um I feel is a actually a fairly comfortable prediction >> uh with there’s obviously if there’s like World War II or something um that that could put a kink in those plans or
[00:10:00] those expectations. >> Yeah. Uh, but in the absence of World War II, if current trends continue, I would say the the economy 10xes in 10 years. >> Love it. Can you give us an We had a bunch of >> And then we’ll have a base on the moon. >> Yes. And we’ll And we’ll have >> And we’ll have people on Mars. >> And we’ll have mass drivers on the moon. Yes. Um >> I think so. In 10 years, I think I think we’ll have a mass driver on the moon in 10 years. >> I love it. Gerard K. O’Neal’s vision uh being fulfilled. Uh we had uh four robots on stage here this year um on the at the Abundant Summit. I look forward to Optimus. I’m curious Optimus 3 timeline and [clears throat] in particular when can I buy one or two? When’s uh when do you expect Optimus to go into commercial uh for commercial sale or will you be leasing it? Well, we’re in the final stages of completion of Optimus 3, which is really
[00:11:01] going to be by far the most advanced robot in the world. Nothing’s even close. >> Yeah. >> Um, in fact, I haven’t even sent any seen any demos of robots that are as good as Optimus 3, frankly. Maybe they’re out there or they’re secret or something. I don’t know. But um you know and I have to make sure I’m saying things that are reasonably public as well. Of course, but >> of course we’re streaming this on X. Yeah. >> Okay. This is pretty public in accurate. >> Yes. [laughter] >> Um yeah, I I think we’ll start production on Optimus 3 this summer. Um but but very slow at first. Yeah. >> Um like you know the sort of classic scurve ramp of manufacturing units most of us this time um and then probably reach high volume production around summer next year. Uh
[00:12:02] and then um you know we’ll we’ll have off you know design clean next year. I try to release a new robot design every year, an improved robot design every year. >> When when Dave Blondon and I were at the Gigafactory, uh it was an extraordinary experience. 11 a.5 million square feet for the Tesla. And then I think you said you’re building out 9 and a half million square feet for Optimus there as well, which is uh which is extraordinary. Um let’s >> 10 million [clears throat] square feet round numbers. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. I had that be that would be that’ll be quite that that’s going to be a a a new factory design too like it’s not different from other factories. >> How far before we have robots building robots? I mean you automated so much of the Gigafactory already uh were there humans playing a small role. Do the robots just play the role that humans
[00:13:00] are playing in that regard? >> Uh we still have a lot of humans building things. um you know T Tesla direct employees who are building things uh or like basically people in the factory or either building or managing people building uh it’s roughly 100,000 uh so we have a lot of people there’s Tesla total hit counts around 150k of of which 2/3s are you know in the factory in one form or another and then our suppliers there’s probably maybe a million or two million people in our suppliers type of So it’s it’s a lot of people. Um what what we do expect that is that is that the output per per person at Tesla becomes very very high. >> Yeah. >> So we’re not planning any like layoffs or reductions in personnel. In fact, we will increase our headcount. Um but the output per human at Tesla is going to
[00:14:00] get nutty high. >> When we were >> like you can’t even believe it. Yeah. when we were together um we discussed the idea of sustainable abundance uh on our podcast and you reinforced the idea that we have a coming age of universal high income uh which has become a point of discussion beyond UBI but I’m just wondering if you have any thoughts on how we get there have you reflected that any further and and more so you know we talked about a time frame of civil unrest you know two three four five uh probably uh a lot of COVID-like checks in the interim until we get to a demonetization uh and a you know deflation that leads us to UHI. Any more reflections on that? That’s a really people need that hope and that vision. >> Yeah. I I mean to be clear I I don’t think we should be sort of complacent. We need we do need to be careful because
[00:15:00] the future is a range of possible outcomes and uh they’re not all great. Um, but I at this point I I I I do agree with you that it’s it’s likely to be great. Um, you know, it’s probably 80% likely, maybe more likely to be great. And uh and I and I do think we’ll have universal high income. We’re basically just issue money to people or you know and and the really just uh because the output of goods and services will so far exceed the money supply that um you know that that that effectively you have deflation because just deflation is just the ratio of the outputs of goods and services to the money supply. Um so that that’s uh so if if the rate of growth of of goods and services far exceeds the rate of growth of the money supply which I predict will happen uh then uh you will have deflation. >> Yes. And a lot of a lot of people spinning up new companies competing
[00:16:00] against each other driving the price down and increasing the variability and deflation faster and faster. >> Yeah. It’s basically the AI and robots are going to make so much stuff and provide so many services that uh they will actually run out of things to do for the humans. They’ll just run out of things to do for the humans and then they they’ll you know there’s there’s only so much that humans can even express that they want. So you go back to my example of like if you go a million times greater than the earth’s economy, you you’ve long since saturated all human desire. Uh you know like maybe like even if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times you you probably already saturate saturated human anything people can think of that they want. So do do you think the the value of money is going to significantly decrease? Will it will we go post capitalist?
[00:17:04] >> Yeah, I think money will stop being relevant at some point in the future. >> So just as you’re becoming it’s it’s probably something like an in banks uh culture sort of future. Um, and I I think the AI down the road will really not use uh human currency. It will just care about uh power and mass, wattage and tonnage. >> It’s kind of ironic then, right? Just as you’re becoming a multi- trillionaire, money starts to have less value. Um, >> yeah, pretty much. Um uh yeah, you know, the all this stuff it’s it’s really just trillion represents like some percentage ownership in companies that I uh you know built and >> it’s not like sitting in a bank account, you know, it’s it’s just literally I own a percentage of the companies. The
[00:18:00] companies are doing lots of useful things. The >> value of the company grows. I own a percentage of the companies and that’s sums up to that number which seems high. >> Yeah. You know, it’s I I was interviewed by somebody who was asking me about your your drive. What drives you? And I said, Elon’s driven to solve problems. He’s driven to make life in the world better by just solving the biggest problems over and over and over again. And if someone else were solving them, he wouldn’t need to. But no one else is solving them. >> So, I just want to say, you know, thank you for that, pal. >> Thank you for that. You’re welcome. Um [applause] >> I [applause] I am curious. Do you think that democracy and our modern institutions can keep up with this supersonic tsunami coming our way? Are they just going to fall in its way? They’re just going to break down? How do we deal?
[00:19:10] I mean, it’s called the singularity for a reason, you know, which is [laughter] that it’s hard to predict what happens and that in the singularity. I mean, Grock’s logo is the singularity. >> I love it. It’s a beautiful logo behind you, by the way. It’s gorgeous. >> Yeah. Thank you. Uh, yeah, it it’s sort of the light the light the the halo around a a black hole is the mass and light are falling in type of thing. Um it’s hard it’s hard to know what happens inside the singularity. Um but it’s going to be very interesting like we’re going to live in the future will be very entertaining of that I’m confident. >> Yes. >> Um and uh I I think also like AI and robotics also the only way we’re going to solve our our budget deficit frankly and not just go bankrupt as a country. Um, so
[00:20:03] I I’m I’m you know, you’ve had an influence on me and that I’m like just I’ve just decided to be more optimistic. It’s like we just should be more optimistic. >> Thank you, pal. >> You know, not that I was an optim an optimist, but I was like maybe dwelling a little too much on the negative stuff. >> It’s all it’s all upside being an optimist >> and a realist a little bit. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. You don’t want to be complacent or just assume everything’s going to go well, but try to make it go well. Um, but I mean, there will be some pretty amazing things that happen. So, if you’ve got uh humanoid robots that are that have very high dexterity and uh and and are incredibly smart, it means that everyone on Earth will have access to better medical care than than uh than the richest person on earth. Which by the way, I would say like, you know, if I’m allegedly the rich person, what I think actually sovereigns are richer than me, by the way. But but it’s like like, you know, I like I had to have
[00:21:01] like a like a neck surgery three times because the first two ones were done wrong, you know. Like this I’m like, what the you know? Um, [laughter] so and and I’m like, my back still hurts a little bit. I’m like, can AI please solve back pain? That would be a huge win. And I think it will. Yep. >> So, you know, back pain sucks. I think that’s maybe like a, you know, sometimes why do people get grumpy when they get old? It’s because back pain. It’s like if your back hurts all the time, you can’t sleep well, you’re going to be grumpy. >> We had but >> we had David Sinclair on stage this morning and he’s going into human trials with ER100, his partial epiggetic reprogramming. And uh one of the one of the papers recently published shows it uh enables joint repair >> and so back pain may be one of the things that uh it eliminates. So >> that would be amazing. >> Yeah, for sure. For sure. >> Honestly, average happiness level for
[00:22:00] humans would just go upstro tremendously if you just saw back pain because it’s it’s not a question of of if you’ll get back pain, it’s when you know you’ll get back pain. >> I I I keep on inviting >> is not a good design. I keep on inviting you to come down to Fountain Life in in uh in Dallas. We’ll uh we’ll help you out. But sometime when you have time, >> you have like what do you I understand like you can get like MRI and CAT scans and everything, but like what do you do with that? You know, it’s like >> happy to happy to send you the list. I’ll I’ll DM you the list or something. >> Yeah, exactly. [laughter] >> Uh you know, um listen, you’ve been so generous. Uh, next up on stage with me is one of another great moonshot entrepreneur, Ben Lamb, who runs Colossal, uh, the de-extinction company, uh, you know, the woolly mammoth and 15 other species. I I heard I heard you say you might want a mini woolly mammoth. Is that Is that true? >> Yeah, I think it would be really cool to have a pet miner woolly mammoth. That’d be pretty epic.
[00:23:00] >> Okay, I I’ll put a word in with you for you with uh with with Ben. [laughter] >> That’d be adorable. little things just running around trumpeting away and it’s like look at that. This is the [laughter] be a great little pet. >> Amazing. >> And also, can somebody please do Jurassic Park in real life? I’d definitely go even if there was some risk of death. >> It’d be super cool. >> I think if anybody’s going to do that, it’s uh it’s Ben Lamb and Colossal. He’s re he’s engineering living life products. Someone asked him recently if he can make a Pikachu and he said probably. I >> Yeah. >> Well, Jurassic Jurassic World, whatever. That would be great. >> All right, I’ll ask him. Yeah, Elon, so grateful for you coming and joining us and sharing. Thank you, my Thank you, my friend. Let’s give it up for Elon Musk. [music]