moonshots ep191 balaji ai bitcoin collapse transcript

And so your first point is there is no AGI. There are many AGIs. >> Where I think AI does take us towards is AI means everybody’s a CEO. Everybody’s a manager. It’s a lot like interacting with an employee, especially a junior employee and you have to check their work. As intelligent as the AI is, it’s far far better with a human interacting with it. >> Yes. >> This means the smarter you are, the smarter the AI is working with you. It reverses the extreme specialization of the 20th century. Your wingspan increases. >> At the end of the day, biology, do you believe there going to be multiple players out there that are going to be providing uh equal or similar capabilities compared to what you just said, Dave, which is there’s going to be someone who will be supreme over everybody else. >> So, here’s what I think about that. Um, >> now that’s a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Moonshots. Get out your second cup of coffee and pump up your IQ

[00:01:00] score by 20 points. We’re about to jump into another incredible episode of WTF Just Happen in Tech. I’m here with my amazing Moonshot mates Dave Blondon and Seem Ismael. Gentlemen, welcome. And today we’re joined by one of the most extraordinary outspoken thinkers on the future of AI, crypto, and society at large. Biology Shini Basan Biology, it’s a pleasure to have you. But before we jump into this deep conversation, allow me to give a proper introduction to Bology. If you already know his work, you know how extraordinary he is. If you don’t, you’re in for a real treat. Bali is an entrepreneur, investor, futurist, formerly the CTO of Coinbase, and general partner at Andre and Harowitz. He’s also a deep thinker in biotech and longevity, founder of council, one of the earliest consumer genomics companies, an investor in biotech startups at Andre and Harowitz, and he taught genomics at Stanford, which I found really cool. >> Most recently, Bology is the author of the network state, the founder of the

[00:02:00] network school, offering a bold blueprint on how online communities can evolve into self-governing sovereign entities. I want one of those. I definitely want one around abundance. Today we’re going to speak about his recent paper, L AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic. Super important point. And we’ll dive into Bitcoin and crypto. We’ll make a right turn down longevity lane. End up talking about how insanely different the world’s going to look in 2035. So, like I said, hold on tight. We’re going to jump in. Bology. Uh I think it’s good evening for you. You’re >> Yes. >> Singapore area today at uh at the network school. >> That’s right. I am. NS.com, baby. Yeah, >> ns.com. >> We’ll we’ll go there. And Seline, Dave, you and your normal >> normal spots. >> Normal habitat. >> There is no normal spot, but yeah, as close as you can get. >> All right. Well, uh, you know, it’s been another incredible week across the board on everything. Uh but bali you know uh

[00:03:01] last time you and I saw each other in physically was in Saudi at the FII summit >> but then before that was in New York we were talking about longevity we were just getting the idea of the longevity you know the health span X prize up and going it’s since launched we have 630 teams competing to add 20 30 healthy years onto your life uh I want to talk about that I want to talk about how the future of extended human health span is going mix in with Bitcoin, crypto, network states and all of that. But uh I think one of the most important papers you put out recently was this conversation around AI being polytheistic and not monotheistic. And you put out 10 points and I want to dive into that. But before I do, >> um See and Dave, uh any opening thoughts? >> Really curious about that Stanford class. seems kind of non sequator in the like you said Peter most wide-ranging

[00:04:00] bio I think you could ever have but uh that that was interesting. >> Sure. >> So yeah, let’s let’s jump in. So you had 10 >> I was looking through some of your podcasts and listening to them uh biology and I really love the idea of fighting for Mars, Bitcoin and life extension covers a lot of the bases we look at here. So really awesome. >> That’s right. Infinite frontier, immutable money, eternal life. What could what could possibly be better? Um, let me start with a a broad ranging question. Do you think the world is going to be recognizable 10 years from now in 2035? >> I mean in the sense that like the continents will exist. Yes. Uh but but in terms of the superructure like societal layer above it, I think very few institutions that predated the internet will survive the internet. And I I look at it as this gi it’s in a sense the single most important force in the world yet still underestimated. It’s like it’s upstream of AI. It’s upstream

[00:05:00] of crypto in a real sense. Upstream of China, upstream of robotics, upstream of what we’re doing right now. It’s in front of your face when you wake up and it’s on your watch when you go to sleep. And it’s yet it’s in front of politics. You know, Twitter elected Trump and Twitter deplatformed Trump and then X reelected Trump and and that happened in every other country. Twitter caused Brexit and Twitter, you know, caused every political frackus we’ve seen. And that’s just like one rivlet of the internet. And so, so yeah, I think the world is going to be radically radically different. I mean, if you think about it, I mean, you guys, you know, we’re, you guys a little bit older than me, but I think kind of the world was relatively static from 1980 to 2015 or so, and then it really started changing quite rapidly over the last 10 years. I don’t know if you guys feel the same way. Well, I had I had Ray Kurszswwell on our stage at the Abundant Summit and he said we’re going to see as much change between now and 2035 as we saw between 1925 and 2025, a century’s worth of progress. >> I think that’s right. >> Yeah. And so while continents are going

[00:06:00] to be the same and probably you know our biology may be the same society’s structures uh when you say those will all disappear you mean political systems financial systems what systems >> yeah so um so my view on the world is uh internet first and so I think that essentially uh so okay I’m going to give a very quick macro structure and then go from there. Um, right now the two kind of growing powers in the world in my view are China and the internet. China is everything physical. The internet is everything digital. The internet has disrupted blue America and taken over media and money. China’s disrupted red America taken over manufacturing and the military. So, Chinese robots, Chinese drones, that’s on the physical side. And then AI on media and crypto on money, that’s on the digital side. And these two kind of forces are just growing stronger and stronger and stronger and stronger. And uh a lot of the 2010s was about trying to resist them with the trade war and the tech lash respectively. But the resistance was

[00:07:00] actually overcome and China and the internet are actually winning. And so I think the future is China in the internet. And again actually that is communism versus capitalism much as for example in the early 1900s Europe was the center of the world and then uh it just sort of buckled in and it was American capitalism versus Soviet communism splitting Europe down the center with the West Germans on the capitalist side, East Germans on the communist side. I think America was the center of the world in the early 2000s and it’s sort of involuting and you’ll have the Chinese on one side and you’ll have the internet on the other side like a lot of Chinese communist back factions and Bitcoin maximalist factions and you’ll have lots of different startup societies around the world. One of the reasons for this is that uh since again since you asked my my my view on this um people talk about what money is and people talk about as a you know a unit of account a medium of exchange store of value but Andreas Antonopoulos had a good line with the fourth purpose of money which is system of control >> and so that is to say you can freeze accounts you can seize accounts you can direct printed money you can you know give banking licenses or not that’s

[00:08:01] actually and in some ways an even more powerful tool than the police system because you know the police aren’t as scalable as the monetary system. Monetary system is everywhere and it directs people silently and there’s not really a vote over who gets a banking license or not or what have you. That entire system, the Fed’s control over that system which is the US dollar but also the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the German mark and so on. If you look at the yields for all Western currencies, they’re rising like this. And the yield for China is going down like this because all kinds of money is going into China and conversely Bitcoin is also appreciating. all the capital is going into R&B and BTC. And so that means that the like it’s not just like the US dollar, but the Canadian dollar, the British pound, all the things that are in the US greater sphere, what you call it, the American empire or or the west or the international community that what Putin calls the golden billion. People have different names for it. All of that kind of crashes at the same time in real terms. And so that means control is lost over a very large swath of formerly wealthy territory. >> And stability is hold on two clarifying

[00:09:00] questions very quickly. One is when you say internet, I’d love for you to kind of describe what do you see as the internet because that’s very amorphous. And secondly, yes. >> When you say internet and and China, would you also equate centralization and decentralization in that equation? >> Roughly. Yes. Correct. So, so China is roughly so when I say China and the internet, that is a shorthand for China is like it’s China itself, but it’s also the physical world. It’s the past, it’s the land, it’s um it’s gold, right? It’s bricks you know both in the sense of gold bricks and brric I minerals it’s mining it’s roads it’s the giant cities and so on coming out of the ground right and what is the internet the internet is the uh the virtual right in a sense actually China is the 19th century right so it’s a it’s the past or you could also say it’s like 1950s America like the girders and stuff coming out of the ground the internet is the virtual and really when I say the internet I mean the free internet the anglpheric internet the unregulated internet and that is it’s obviously crypto currency, it’s AI. And of course, you can say once

[00:10:01] you define these polls, there’s obviously a Chinese internet. There is in many ways that’s like the front lines, right? The front lines are where do the Chinese tech founders go? Like are Jack Maw purged by China or do they go abroad and start startup cities, a Chinese capitalist party to compete with the Chinese Communist Party? I think we’ll see some of or or do they integrate with the Chinese regime? I think that’s a very important sort of thing. Sort of how like, you know, Germany was a border zone for communism versus capitalism. That’s one very important border zone. Another border zone is India where there’s like the physical India which is in bricks and there’s internet India and the Indian diaspora, right? And in this way you can identify border zones between the kind of physical and digital all over the world. And I think that if you apply that lens to many things that’s also state versus network, right? So it’s land versus cloud, it’s state versus network, it’s physical versus digital, it’s past versus future, uh it’s gold versus digital gold. But what’s what’s going away is the basically the quote rulesbased order, the postwar order. Right? There’s another very important graph. Uh if you Google I’m gonna stop

[00:11:03] me and jump. I’m going to slow this down because I’m sure our listeners are spinning as well as I am. I’m probably going to come back and listen to this at 08 speed just to hear it one more time. Um Dave, you wanted to say something? >> Yeah. Well, look, the the whole time that I was growing up, Japan was going to take over the world. The Japanese economy was skyrocketing. It was about to catch up to the US. It was going to bypass us and per capita GDP any day. And my brother actually went to Japan to learn Japanese because of the imminent takeover. And then it all stopped cold uh largely because of an aging demographic that no one had factored into their math. And so now, you know, China’s per capita GDP is way behind the US still. Uh and but the you know, the total GDP, country GDP is catching up fast. But if you look at the underlying aging demographic, it’s uh it’s even worse than Japan actually by far. It’s the worst in world history. And the and the reason the US uh has stayed strong for so long is largely immigration. Uh

[00:12:02] we have incredibly talented people from all over the world including China coming into the country and creating new companies, creating new ideas, and China has none of that. They have they have virtually no immigration. So curious to get your take on how that’s going to play out. You know, if if you view the world, you know, the 10-year future of the world as internet and China. Yeah. But is China going to grind to a halt like Japan did? >> Totally. So, let me actually take all your points in reverse order. First of all, I’m very sympathetic to your kind of worldview. I like that America. That’s America that we both grew up in and spent a lot of time in. So, I’m only saying these things from an analytical lens, not a this should be the thing, but this is the thing. That’s okay. So, first in reverse order, China’s just actually introduced a so-called K visa, which actually they are using to recruit global tech talent. So, so taking your points in reverse order, the US is cutting off H-1B is cutting off um researcher visas, cutting off student visas, cutting off even tourist visas. Europeans, Australians are reporting getting strip search, tourism is crashed. The US, the nationalist faction is cutting off visas. And unfortunately, a lot of socialists are also very much against tech and they’re not really

[00:13:01] going to be that enthusiastic about more tech guys coming in. Um, regarding Japan, the reason that they lost in the 80s was actually because of something called the Plaza Accords. Um at that time remember the US still occupies Japan. It has the US military in Japan. It nukeked Japan and wrote its constitution and so on and so forth. And so the plaza accords among other things stopped Japan from actually using the JPY to go and buy US property and so on and force them to instead buy worthless treasuries and the money printing stuff and so on that began at that time began the Japanese great stagnation. One way of putting in contrast the big difference between Japan and China. China is genuinely sovereign. What does that mean? For example, in 2010, actually in 2017, the New York Times reported uh that in 2010, the Chinese had actually gone and killed many American spies in China. They had rolled up a bunch of rings there. Now, of course, you know, spy versus spy happens, China obviously spies on America, and there’s all kinds of this thing going back and forth. But the reason that’s a important contrast, Japan could never kill American spies, right? because it can never do that. It

[00:14:00] can never have communications or operations that were not seen by America. It was not truly sovereign. America had root control over Japan in a way it doesn’t over China. In fact, that’s the common thread of kind of Chinese policy over the last 50 years. You know how like certain founders like Zuck for example, he may have sold some of his company but never gave up control, right? He always wanted to maintain voting rights even if he gave up some financial rights. In the same way at many times if you study the last 50 years China has taken worse financial terms to retain control right they have always pushed for sovereignty that’s something where you their culture is the century of humiliation and they were crushed for many years so they can never give up sovereignty they’ll never do that again no matter how much it is very similar to a founder who’s very motivated to keep control of their company so as a consequence China is sovereign and it has surveillance proof deliberations in a way that Japan doesn’t and as one concrete example of that last here uh last year, the year before when Gina Ryundo, who is the then commerce secretary, went to China, they launched this Huawei phone on the day

[00:15:01] that she arrived that had chips that showed that China had at least partially gotten out from underneath the chip ban. And that kind of thing could never be done by Japan because Japan couldn’t do anything in stealth, right? China can do things in stealth. Japan can’t. Finally, I would say within tech, we often see something that kind of half works. It’s a bubble and then people discount it and then it comes back five or 10 or 15 years later, then it really works. Example, webband didn’t work, but then Door Dash did. Example, you know, the Palm Pilot kind of worked and then the iPhone did, right? Example, World of Warcraft kind of worked and then Fortnite really did. And so, if you think of China as like the real version of that where it’s actually working, then that’s another thing where past performance may not guarantee future results. Let me pause there. >> Can I ask you about timelines on this too? Because, you know, a lot of the trend lines are 10-year trend lines and Peter’s question was a 10-year question, but AI is like a two or threeyear thing. So, so if I use the analogy of World War II, you know, uh, Pearl Harbor Day was December 1941. The war was over, effectively over 1944, truly over 1945. So, start to finish for

[00:16:03] the US, it was only a three or four year journey. I think AI is on that same kind of trajectory where the declaration of war was essentially the chip ban against China. So, we’re about a year into it now. uh and the timeline from here to a resolution I think is going to be similar very very short because of the exponential rate of change. So you know when we look at demographic trends long-term demographic trends that’s always going to be 10 15 20 years to resolve but I think the actual action is in a much much shorter timeline. Do you do you agree? >> Okay. So let me give I’ve got four more counter arguments here >> and then I’m going to move us to the paper that started this conversation but I really want to hit on that uh pretty hard. >> Of course I’ll be brief. I have 20 questions, but I’ll wait. >> Okay, great. So, so, so first is uh China’s demographic problems have robotic solutions. And the thing is that why did the South lose the Civil War? Because the North industrialized, the North didn’t have slave labor. And many times, if you look, societies that have

[00:17:00] lots of, for example, illegal aliens aren’t slaves, but they’re often paid, you know, under table wages and so they’re exploited in different ways. If you have a society that’s got an abundance of quote cheap labor, it often fails to industrialize, fail, fails to automate. And China is using its kind of demographic pressure to automate, automate, automate, automate as like a 1% shock every year to force them to automate. If you ever been to China, like it’s it’s already ahead on that kind of thing. They already have the delivery drones, they have the hotel robots, they have all of that kind of stuff. So that’s kind of point number one. Point number two is if you actually look at other metrics besides dollars, one of the issues is dollars are controlled by the US government. And so you have to actually look at physical production. China for example has you know one shipyard as the US secretary of the navy Carlos Del Toro said produces more ships than the entire US Navy combined. Hegath who’s current secretary of defense has said Chinese hypersonics can sync all US aircraft carriers. The Rathon co said that the US can’t decouple from China. And there’s a Govini study that was commissioned by the Pentagon $400 million study that basically showed the US military is made in China. If you go and look at the Tomahawk or the JDAM the famous American

[00:18:00] weapons their supplier supplier are all Chinese factories. So the the the war is actually already over. It’s actually already been lost because China can just hit a button and just shut off supply chain, right? That’s why what was going on with the rare earth elements and so on and so forth. This is something that the in a sense the war was fought with the trade war in 2015 and the US lost because what China did is it diversified its revenue streams outside of the west. Only 15% of its revenue comes from the US. 85% comes from non- US sources. So even if the tariffs chopped it in half, they still got 90 95% of their their revenue left. And so um I think that even the chip ban for example challenging the Chinese to a test of quantum mechanics and like semiconductor production when all four you know of the major chip companies you know look can the Chinese as a culture can they do chipm of course it’s like challenging the Italians to a pizza making contest and so you know this was like this was right in their wheelhouse like do math and computer science and manufacturing for national pride and Chinese

[00:19:00] sovereignty right you know it would be much better to challenge them on for example arguing in English that’s not their strong point like making international media their only their only success on me go ahead >> no that’s funny that’s funny I’m going to I’m going to because I want to really hit where where our audience wants to hear about >> course I want to dive into uh to AI and crypto in particular here >> one thing I will say I’ll just say one last thing is I do believe the internet can balance China but MAGA is trying to be more China than China we have to be more America than America That’s what the internet represents. It represents free speech. It represents free markets. It represents decentralization. It represents things that China can’t clone internally without breaking its whole system apart. Right? So I think that a lot of what MAG is doing is like China envy trying to outmanufacture China even having mimemetic rivalry over Taiwan. But we can play our own game which is the internet. So I’m hopeful but I think the hope is on a different axis than people think. Let me pause. >> I have a quick question before you switch topics. Peter uh Bal, I’ve heard you talk about uh China internet

[00:20:00] democrats or Republicans, right? Yes. >> Um I’m assuming in that overall equation Europe is irrelevant, India is mostly irrelevant, Brazil is irrelevant. >> I much more minor. >> I think Eastern Europe uh so let me be more granular. Um I’m actually fairly bullish on Eastern Europe. I’m extremely bearish on Western Europe. I think it’ll be the opposite of the 20th century roughly. Every country that did poorly in the 20th century because they suffered through communism, socialism, they now are capitalist andor, you know, uh rationally nationalist. Conversely, every country that was wealthy in the 20th century, they became degenerate and they started fighting amongst themselves. So, I actually think Latin America, uh, you know, like El Salvador especially, and maybe Argentina is actually on the ups because they’ve sort of gotten immunized against a century of, you know, drugs and so on. I’m not saying everywhere gets there, but I think Belli could be like um, uh, gosh, who’s the guy who unified four states? Um, God, his name’s uh, Simon Bolivar. Becky is young in his career. He could be the Simone Balibar of Latin America.

[00:21:01] I think he’s like Belle Lee Kuwanu. I’m actually very bullish on him. I’m actually very bullish on Indians and moderately bullish on India on many metrics. If you look at like nuclear, if you look at steel, China’s far and away number one, but India is a real but distant number two. It has come up a lot and um it’s radically different than from when from my youth when my youth it really was like, you know, like a third world country. It’s really not that anymore in big pieces of it, right? So I’m moderately bullish on India, extremely bullish on Indians. I’m bullish on uh on the Middle East in in the form of Dubai and and and Riyad. Um I’m bullish on Eastern Europe. It’s basically just a involution, almost a flip of the 20th century. All right, let’s go to the AI post. >> All right, that’s all. >> Every week, my team and I study the top 10 technology metat trends that will transform industries over the decade ahead. I cover trends ranging from humanoid robotics, AGI, and quantum computing to transport, energy, longevity, and more. There’s no fluff, only the most important stuff that matters, that impacts our lives, our companies, and our careers. If you want me to share these meta trends with you,

[00:22:00] I write a newsletter twice a week, sending it out as a short two-minute read via email. And if you want to discover the most important metat trends 10 years before anyone else, this report’s for you. Readers include founders and CEOs from the world’s most disruptive companies and entrepreneurs building the world’s most disruptive tech. It’s not for you if you don’t want to be informed about what’s coming, why it matters, and how you can benefit from it. To subscribe for free, go to dmmandis.com/ metatrends to gain access to the trends 10 years before anyone else. All right. Now, back to this episode. All right. So, and and we’ll come back to these other points, but you wrote a paper which I read and I enjoyed. We’ll put it in the notes here, which is AI is polytheistic and not monotheistic. And you identified 10 key points. And I think it’s important people to understand these because some of them are very fundamental to where things are going. Uh there was a lot of fear early on that we would have a hard takeoff of super intelligence and there’d be one runaway technology that you know ruled them all. And so your first point is

[00:23:02] there is no AGI. There are many AGIs. And I think that’s critically important. Why don’t you dive into that? >> Sure. So, let me preface it by saying I actually take the super intelligent stuff seriously in the sense of I think it’s worth engaging. Like some people will dismiss it as, you know, oh that’s obviously not a thing, but clearly intelligent human beings exist, dolphins exist, octopuses exist, like intelligence could exist outside of like a human brain, right? Obviously it could, you know? So um but I think that actually existing AI over the last two and a half years as it’s settled down a bit and there may be you know another like you know dog leg up in the future right >> there may be another evolutionary tree that brings us beyond what current systems can do. Yes, exactly. Because right now LLMs and more generally probabistic models are actually very good at system one thinking sort of the instinctive thing. You know, Andrewing used to say machine learning is what a human can do in one second and AI is maybe what a human can do in like one

[00:24:01] minute or 10 minutes, right? You know, it’s like extended the time. Um, conversely, computers historically have been very good at system two thinking, logical chains of reasoning, you know, for long periods of time, right? So it is not impossible to imagine something like the tool former that could use system one thinking to route tools for system two and some of the stuff with replet and some of the code generation stuff is kind of there but I think we’re going to go into a degree of not exactly AI winter that’s maybe too strong but AI deployment and let’s talk about AI polytheistic monotheistic so that post is really about a constrained view of AI like AI is actually constrained in ways that people haven’t been talking about for example what didn’t happen is a hard takeoff scenario of just building summoning the demon and this one god you know and by the way that was not you know you could have imagined someone had that for example the US invented the nuclear weapon the nuclear bomb and they for a period they had it before anybody else and had the US been like the Nazis or the communists they would have conquered the whole world and blown it all up

[00:25:01] right but because it was a genuinely good actor it didn’t do that didn’t use that power you know for for for as much evil as it could have um but AI isn’t like that AI very rapidly in on a grand scheme of things decentralize you even faster than uh than nuclear weapons and I even think the analogy of nuclear weapons only can take you so far. Now you have which by the way which was counterintuitive because it’s expensive to build these models but now the Chinese open models you know uh Kimmy and Quen and Deepseek and so on as well as Llama you know which is Llama 3 was actually a really good thing that Facebook put out there llama 4 has not been as good but I give a lot of props to Zuck for doing it in the first place. These are expensive things to put out there. um all of those I mean it’s there’s so many good AI models now right at a minimum there’s you know chatbt obviously there’s claude there’s croc is pretty good at least on the benchmarks there’s uh gemini and uh then there’s perplexities models and there’s all the Chinese models right and there’s just more every day and um so that’s a polytheistic view it’s not

[00:26:01] first one to AGI wins and it’ll just out compute every >> but I think the point I think the point you made and I think an important point for people understand here is these models are all leaprogging each other and no one is deviating by orders of magnitude and so we’re likely to have at the end of this at least you know Dave what’s your guess how many different uh you know large scale frontier models they’re going to be globally you know 5 years from now or two years >> and I think the natural dynamic actually is one at the end of the day um >> but we’re in this golden era right now of a few months maybe a year maybe two years where they’re on the order of 10. >> Why? Because ASI just depresses everybody else. >> Well, we haven’t we haven’t hit true self-improvement that started about a month ago. It’ll go the next, say, four, five, six months. And so, we’ll know if there’s a true singularity single winner about five or six months from now. And >> so, you’re saying this is where GPT5, you know, pulled their punches and they’re using their capability for self-improvement. >> There’s no doubt. Actually, that was that was a lot of research after that last podcast a week ago because they

[00:27:01] definitely sandbagged. Immad mentioned it on the podcast and we research research research and it’s like yep there’s no doubt that a huge fraction of the compute is going back to internal self-improvement all of a sudden across all the foundation model companies and you know they’re they’re depriving the consumer experience from that same compute the backlog of things they want to build and launch is just much much bigger than the available compute. Well, we’ll find out tomorrow when we’re up talking to uh Kevin. >> We’ll try. That’s interesting. I I mean, the thing is where can where can it self-improve and one of the biggest bottlenecks? One of my points in that post was the bottlenecks on AI. AI doesn’t do it end to end. It does a middle to middle right now because the bottlenecks are prompting and verifying and a prompt it’s like if you think of a very if you had a very fast spaceship you could give it a vector um on the two dimensional surface of a sphere like a theta and a fi to point it in a direction right and even if it was very fast you still need to point in a direction to get it to go there and that’s similar to a prompt a prompt is like a high dimensional vector you’re

[00:28:00] pointing this very fast spaceship this AI in this direction right so the prompt is one bottleneck and specifying that is is one thing because obviously you can prompt to do whatever and then verifying the output on the other end. Um I think for visual stuff, one of the points I made in the post is visual things like front end, like uh like images, like video, we have very good GPU. So we can visually see whether something looks off visually. Go ahead. >> Yeah, you know, this is the topic that that just absolutely really really really matters. And >> I I want to get away from the idea that somebody at OpenAI knows the answer, somebody at Antropic knows the answer, they’re not telling us. It’s just not true. They don’t know either. Nobody knows and and we’re all going to figure it out very very soon. Nobody knows well like if I said who’s going to win the AI race if I said that a year ago >> everybody would have said well it’s going to take a lot of NVIDIA chips and training time compute and training time thinking. Oh wait, you know Bellagi just pointed out a really important point. It’s turning out that inference time compute and reprompting is turning out

[00:29:00] to be more important than training time compute. So that’s a that’s a massive shift in who’s going to win and why in just the last few months. And so nobody knows how the next 6 months are going to play out. We do know that it’s massively self-improving, but we don’t know which components like right now Sam is racing to get Stargate done because he needs that, you know, hundred billion soon to be 500 billion dollars worth of Nvidia to be pointed back at the self-improvement problem to maintain that I’m ahead and I’m going to stay ahead loop. And then China’s probably doing something very similar. And and we don’t know if that’s the winning move versus inference time compute from AMD or from some other new source versus just raw brain power innovation on the algorithms. It’s all going to be moving very quickly. >> I I mean I’m this may turn out to be wrong in in 12 months or a year and so or 12 months or a year. Uh but I think >> I’m very skeptical that it’s just a matter of spending more money because we’ve seen diminishing. I mean these companies are highly incentivized to make a lot of money and um we have not

[00:30:03] seen radical improvements over the last year and a half despite a lot of spend. In fact, we have seen like very sort of I should disappointing is a weird way to put it because it’s like a hydonic treadmill where this stuff is amazing, right? But um I’m very skeptical that it’s just a matter of spending more money at this point. Number one and number two is the path the Chinese are taking with DeepSeek and other things is actually in part because of the chip ban or the chip restrictions which have been just partially lifted with this Nvidia deal. They took a chip constrained view. So they are using less chips to get the same or or less advanced chips to get the same result. The other thing they’re doing is they’re doing a lot more in the way of physical AI like deployment of physical robots um is you know like self-driving is obviously working in both the US and in China but that kind of thing is where they are focusing a lot of their energies and so in so far as there are some embodiment that is necessary and others have talked about this like the feedback loops that you’re mentioning it may not be just a purely digital form that prompts on the computer maybe you just need constant

[00:31:00] haptic feedback walking around the world to perceive the world build spatial intuition essentially do physics experiments. Let me pause there. So bali one of one of the points that that you make in that first point and I think it’s an important one that I want to understand and Dave you may have an opposite point of view here is there is no uh you know there’s no single let’s put it forward beyond AGI no single ASI at the end of the day biology do you believe they’re going to be multiple players out there that are going to be providing uh equal or similar capabilities compared to what you just said Dave which is there’s going to be someone who will be supreme over everybody else. Now, we’ve heard >> you. So, you believe there’ll be multiple players. How many players do you imagine? >> Here’s why. >> Yeah. >> I think I think that the hard takeoff scenario >> was theoretically possible or what have you, right? But I think that at this point, first of all, there’s so much money, so much espionage, so much surveillance, so much mimisis in this

[00:32:01] space that I think it’s very, very, very difficult for something like that to actually happen at this point. Number one. Number two is also that um like what does recursive self-improvement actually mean? Is it just cogitation within a computer and the thing reflecting on itself? >> It may mean new physics uh new uh intelligence models, new capabilities. >> I I know I know but what I mean is like okay let me let me be more precise. Elazer has put out this thought experiment which is imagine if there was a you know a computer that could think for every second that you acted. It could think for a billion years and it could compute out every move that you could possibly think and you thought you do this but it computed it out and so on. And that actually does work for things like chess deterministic games where you can enumerate the game board state and things like that. But it doesn’t work for chaotic let alone turbulent systems um or for cryptographic systems where there are fundamental mathematical constraints on how far out you can forecast it right with finite precision arithmetic. And so

[00:33:01] you can easily construct systems for example you can have turbulent clocks for example like you know how people will consume randomness and inject randomness for randomized algorithms. You could literally have physically turbulent clocks that can make can be can generate things which are impossible for an AI to predict mathematically impossible for an AI to predict. Right. And so I don’t see people t I mean I should probably write a paper on this or something, right? But like you can actually show mathematically that I mean it’s kind of I think it’s obvious but for example if you ask AI what is the solution to uh you know like the the equations to to forge a digital signature right or to invert a hash function and get the pre-image. It can’t do that. That’s what it can’t do. Crypto is what AI can’t do. Chaos what is what AI can’t do. Turbulence is what AI can’t do. So because it can’t do those things, um it cannot be this recursively super self-improving super intelligence that just wins and dominates everything because those phenomena exist in the world and there’s aspects of predictability where it’s like fundamentally physically and mathematically constrained. Let me pause

[00:34:00] there. >> Yeah. Well, the the first thing you said really resonates which is not necessarily a race to the biggest GPU farm and the and the hundred billion dollar budget. And we know that because we we believe that there’s at least 100 to a,000x performance gain in the algorithms themselves. And you one of the things that drives my friends at MIT nuts, especially the academic types, is that the the transformer algorithm is driving all of this AI is not that complicated. And and it frustrates the hell out of them because they’ve been researching all these arcane nooks and crannies for decades and none of it mattered, you know, in what’s happening right now. Yet, it’s clearly intelligent. It’s clearly got an IQ of 148 now. It’s clearly coming up with its own ideas. Now, so if you believe there’s 100 to,000x performance gain inside the algorithms, the narrow definition of self-improvement is do we now have the AI Alec Radford that Leopold Dashen Bunner was talking about in his incredibly brilliant paper like Alec Radford, researcher at OpenAI, the guy that comes up with the next idea and implements it. Can AI do that completely

[00:35:01] self-contained now? I think the answer is yes, plus or minus a few weeks. >> I I re I guess I really disagree with that. Okay, so let me admit that that is possible, potentially possible, but it’s similar to, for example, in 2015, let me qualify myself and then let me, you know, argue with a little bit, Dave. In 2015, I remember writing a note internally, I think, at A6Z when the chatbot thing was big. If you remember chat bots in 2015 and I remember saying, what people seem to want from chat bots is iterated Google. That is to say, the difficulty of doing chat bots in the 2015 format was something where you could give a query, you could get back Google results, and then you could iterate on that. Such a thing, if it existed, would be more valuable than Google. Now, I’m not I’m not saying that that’s not possible, but that was so far beyond what anybody at that time was attempting with chatbots, which were just if then else decision-making trees. What it turned out as often happens as the case is that the entire chatbot bubble helped inspire among other things

[00:36:01] one Greg Brockman who obviously you know went and did open AI right so and he’s written about that how he was inspired by the chatbot thing is just as a technical problem to solve it but he took it more seriously than anybody else did and my view is as of right now unless there’s something that bridges system one and system two thinking which is certainly possible given that computers are now good at both unless there’s something like that AI doesn’t, you know, it still can’t do 9.11 minus, you know, which is bigger, 9.1 versus 9. 9.8, right? Anything that’s spatial, that’s logical, that’s deterministic in the absence of, it doesn’t have that verification. It’s just symbol generation probabilistic, right? It doesn’t have um another way of putting it, you know, with chemical reactions. If you have a chemical reaction that only goes, you know, like 0.95 and you try to iterate 20 times, you have 0.95 to 20, you have a huge loss. Yeah. Exactly. Right. And the counter argument to this is oh people are saying the tool the task duration of AI is improving and the benchmarks are improving but when you use it in practice and it’s just not there right

[00:37:01] like >> I’m going to deviate us into the next subject but here’s an important point for the you know for us to discuss in the future which is there is two outcomes here one is we have a polytheistic we have multiple AGIS multiple ASIS uh Dave you’re taking the point that there is going to be one primary ASI in the final result, you know, one digital god to to rule them all. Um, we can put make that a long bet and we’ll see what happens. Uh, Dave, your your timeline for when you think we’re going to know that is what? >> Uh, I think most likely 6 months, you know, out of bounds two out of bounds two years. >> All right. So, this is our conversation. And I I also I I wouldn’t take that bet because I think government involvement is what’s going to force a somewhat poly I think the natural dynamic is a winner take all but government involvement hopefully will will preserve some balance. >> And Dave your point is that there’s so much compute going into the recursive self-learning stuff now that over time

[00:38:00] one will emerge and shoot past everybody else. I’m telling you, I use this stuff every day and it went from smart to freaking brilliant, mind-blowingly brilliant in the last few weeks. And there’s no doubt in my mind it can self-improve now. Uh just cuz I use I mean just playing with it is just incredible. >> All right, I’m going to move I’m going to cherry I’m going to cherry the points on your paper. Bologn >> I have lost control of this podcast for sure. >> Sorry. Sorry. I just want Peter I’ll give you the ball back. I just want to say one thing. Um I think that what is really underestimated is AI is not good at time varying adversarial systems like markets and politics >> today. So >> today but there was just a there was just a paper published about AI’s accuracy and predictions. >> That was um extraordinarily good. >> I saw that and I need to dig into I just saw it in my peripheral vision just today. I need to dig into that. But let me explain what I mean by this. first is

[00:39:00] um when you have a labeling of you know cats and dogs right like the English language doesn’t vary that that conceptual label between the image and the text doesn’t vary that much when you have the rules of a game of chess that isn’t time varying in the same way but markets and politics are inherently and markets politics media and so on is inherently time varying and adversarial in the sense that a post or a trade from a day ago or a year ago or 10 years ago will not necessarily make money or get likes in the same way that it will today. And the moment that anybody has an AI there, they’ll start using it against other people. So you’ll have a bunch of AIS each competing with each other, right? And so because of that, >> you’re saying it’s self-centering. >> Yeah, exactly. I think I I another way of putting it is there’s just such strong incentives to decentralize AI at this point with all kinds of crazy corporate surve corporate espionage surveillance people refreshing the papers and so on that how can you have that advantage beyond whatever a few

[00:40:01] days or months people will just copy it very very quickly which is what we’ve been seeing >> all right >> Peter tell me to shut up because I’m this conversation I’m just gonna go for it is there is there’s so much give me your counter counter all I’m going to go to I’m going to go to one of your next points. I’m going to cherry pick out of the 10 points in your paper. The next one is AI is amplified intelligence, not artificial intelligence. I think this is really important because there’s a tendency to have tremendous fear uh because of the view that AI is out there and it’s something which is going to compete directly with me and it’s going to diminish my role and and abilities on the planet. So amplified intelligence, please go ahead. >> Yes. So so let me explain what I mean by this. Right now um people think of AI as complete agentic like you can do a task end to end completely by itself. For many tasks it is really middle to middle. Now I want to clarify self-driving has gotten to the end to end point right it is now literally end to end. It can pick you up and drop you off completely. It took 20 years since the DARPA Grand Challenge but it was

[00:41:00] solvable. However, that took billions of dollars and I don’t know certainly millions of miles driven and an enormous capex and a lot of time to get there. And there’s a lot of actually warning and transition because the real world has friction, right? And so I am somewhere in between. I don’t think AI takes all the jobs right away because what happens right now is you find yourself at least I find myself the actual reality of AI without naming them. For example, there’s like a fair number of founders for example who will send over like AI slop slide decks and I’ll be like it’s like the new Lauram, right? It’s Lauram AI ipsson. Okay. AI psu, right? It’s like placeholder text. It’s like, you know, it’s a it’s, you know, the new midw is a super intelligence. It’s a super intelligence yet midw, right? Mean because it’s garbage in, garbage out. Like you get a midw prompt in and you get midwit text out. That’s what I mean by amplified intelligence, right? If you’re really smart, yes, you can prompt it to figure out new corners of physics or math. And crucially, crucially, you

[00:42:01] can verify it by eye with your domain knowledge. Like I’m sure Terry Tao can search this and find interesting areas of math that he couldn’t find before. But he is capable of looking at the stream of symbols coming back parsing them and figuring out if it’s just gibberish or not. Other people will look at will talk to it and it’ll tell them it’s discovering all this great physics and so on, but without actually being able to do the experiment or do the calculations and do the verification step, they’re like convinced they’ve discovered some quantum mechanical, you know, insight and it’s just all >> it’s [ __ ] gibberish. >> So I mean the point you made here that I think is very important for folks to hear is this means the smarter you are, the smarter the AI is working with you. And the other the other half of this which I keep on trying to shout from the rooftop rooftops is ask great questions. >> Yes. Basically if you’re good at I mean AI means everybody’s a CEO everybody’s a manager right? It’s a lot like interacting with an employee especially a junior employee and you have to check

[00:43:01] their work. You simply cannot shove it straight to prod. Fundamentally, that’s the thing is as a CEO, as a manager, you’re interfacing with the market, especially as a CEO or the founder, right? AI is not interfacing with the market. So, it can throw slop over the end because it only has to satisfy you. It doesn’t have to satisfy the unforgiving market. The market will just set it to zero. Okay. And Dave, >> is that a great point? I think a great point you make is that where you are using a certain type of AI now, when you have an improved model, you just slot in the new model >> and you keep you stay in the middle to middle. >> Yeah, >> that’s right. AI AI does doesn’t take your job. It takes the job of the previous AI. Empirically, once you have a slot in your budget for an AI text generator, an AI image generator, AI video generation, AI code generation, and so on and so forth, what you find yourself doing empirically is I swap out, you know, you swap out stable diffusion for midjourney and you swap out, you know, the old, you know, cursor for clawed code and you swap out this

[00:44:00] for that. And you really don’t want to use more than one, honestly. Usually, right? Sometimes you’ll use more than one, but it’s like easy to have like what I what I mean by that is um once you get in the flow of midjourney, do you want to switch over to Higsfield or Google Vo? You can. And actually, these are all built by the way such that a prompt in one will basically work with another one, but they’re also subtly different. So it’s a little bit like different social networks where they’re kind of similar with the hearts and the you know posts and so on but they you know they have some so usually once you’ve invested in a tool you don’t want to swap it out right away but you can swap it out right away right so what that actually means is these things are beating each other’s brains in for the AI budget and I do think that every company will have AI teams just like you have a social media team right like 20 years ago it was considered oh my god only you know people waste time in social media 10 years ago was a noveltyish to have a social media team now it’s obviously a core function of every company that creates content for social media. So every company will have an AI team that’s just doing constant process optimization, verification of output and so on and so forth. So it

[00:45:01] does actually create jobs as well. The other thing it creates jobs as is uh in proctoring and verification because what AI is doing look you we all see the positive parts of AI. A lot of people only see the negative parts and I’m not talking just about the job taking part or whatever. I’m talking about the slop the spam right the scams what have you. So AI is going to radically increase the budget for proctoring and verification. Proof of human being only the beginning of that. >> Yeah. Let me clean up one thing you said there because I think it’s really important for the audience. I think we are in this golden era right now where as intelligent as the AI is, it’s far far better with a human interacting with it. And there’s something missing. There’s clearly something missing. Even though it can solve incredibly hard math and physics problems, it can it can do entire, you know, hourlong tasks for you and come back with near perfect answers. But there’s still something missing in the creativity system too. Something ain’t ain’t right. But that creates this golden golden moment of synergy between the people and their and their AI agents. But the the second part um the beautiful thing about AI is it can do

[00:46:01] 10,000 things for you concurrently. And if you can evaluate the answers and cherrypick the best one out of 10,000, you get just incredibly good results. So as as an analogy, you know, midjourney, you mentioned you’re making a movie and you’re trying to create the next scene and you need it to be funny. If you prompt a GO3 or something like that and you VO3 and you say, “Hey, make me the next scene.” You probably won’t like what you get back. If you prompt it a thousand times, you get something incredible back. And it’s very easy to set up processes of self-evaluation, self-improvement, use another AI to evaluate the last AI and create these loops. And that’s where an enormous amount of compute is an incredible competitive advantage. But that process is working really, really well for code generation, video game generation, movie generation, uh discovering new physics, discovering new math. As long as you have evals that can test the results that come back, you can make ridiculous progress ahead of the curve. Just turns out that AI self-improvement is one of

[00:47:00] those types of tasks. >> It’s just software. I disagree with you for the following two reasons. Um the first is I think that um what’ll often happen is the evals will basically just get gamed in the sense of it becomes like the goodart’s law like when a metric becomes a measure and so on. So for example, Grock I look I like obviously I love Elon. I’m you know like it’s amazing that he’s in the top five with models given how many other things he’s doing at the same time. It’s it’s actually honestly super human, right? The how how good XAI is given, how many other things he’s doing. However, like you know, when you actually try to use it on a daily basis, this is not everything necessarily shows up on the numbers, right? It’s like it’s fine. It’s good, but it’s really good for a Twitter search and so on, but it doesn’t like obviously smash relative to to Claude or what have you. They’re basically comparable. And so I’d say one of the issues is the space is so multi-dimensional that evals are like it’s like hairs on a very large head

[00:48:03] right so it’s like a spike of functionality like this number is up and this number is up and this but the surface is so high dimensional that the kinds of things that you want to do with it the eval don’t necessarily capture that’s one point the second point is I think what I would argue you’re underrating is those verification steps those evaluation steps are not cheap and they are not really that good for main things when you do team of experts and stuff like that and you throw a lot of GPUs at it like Grock super heavy and so on and so forth like you yes you can flip the coin I mean again empirically if I use midjourney I have to flip the coin a thousand times before I finally find the image that I actually want you get in the ballpark very quickly but then the one that you actually want is an enormous amount of time to to get there right and it is not obvious to me that Um I may maybe that’ll get improved but I definitely don’t consider that to be solved right now like the the verification step in the last few years.

[00:49:00] I don’t consider that to have radically improved because you still have to prompt the thing a lot. Another part of it that’s an issue is um the way these work is they don’t actually give a pseudo random number seed at the beginning to get a reproducible result. So you can give the same input and get different output every single time. What that means is you can only include it in those parts of your process that can tolerate that level of variance which actually does constrain what >> which can be a feature and not a bug in many circumstances >> in in >> just one narrow point on that that is true for us as users of the APIs but it’s not true for the researchers inside open AAI meta and elsewhere they they get perfect reproducibility they give give it the same RAN seed they turn the temperature to zero they run the test 5,000 times They can debug with exact fidelity. They just don’t make that available to us as outside outside users. >> I know. So, so exactly that’s right. But basically, forever reason right now in the UX’s they have not exposed t equals z and they’ve not exposed perfect

[00:50:01] reproducibility. I mean you can share chats and so on but I guess my point is um I actually there’s probably some model that you can call with that to get reproducibility but I guess my point is when you’ve got stochastic output let me give you an example somebody had some AI web browser type thing okay seems cool at first they’re like wow it can automate your posting for you and build a whole following I’m like I would not do that and the reason is that first of all if it makes even one misstep that’s on you, right? It’s like your dog biting somebody, right? You’re the owner. You’re responsible for this thing. Okay? It’s not actually a human being. You’re the human being for whom it’s responsible for. Number one, so if it likes the wrong thing, it retweets the wrong thing, it posts the wrong thing, which could easily do. The second thing is what it what it admits often sounds like the parody version of you, right? People who use AI chat bots, you know, people have tried this like replicas of people, right? It’s fine for like voice cloning if you supervise it.

[00:51:00] It can help you scale yourself in that way at times, right? I have like an AI version of the network state at the networkstate.com, but I say it’s AI biology so that there’s errors there. People know it’s AI, right? So it’s like an MP3 audible that updates with the text, right? So it’s okay. However, that’s something where you can tolerate some glitches in the audio output, right? It’s like it’s an analog output. If it’s a digital output, you can’t tolerate often that error like on the balance that’s being sent to somebody or something like that. So the AI web browsing for example, where is that helpful? It’s helpful on like automated testing. It’s like a better selenium, right? Internally within your company, you run AI web browsing, you have to click a bunch of things like a like a monkey hitting buttons like a human. Fine, you can tolerate the scarasticity there. And also it won’t take down your live site. But people who are trying to say, “Oh, my AI agent will go and make me a million bucks like Renaissance or whatever just get wrecked because it’s not good for that kind of thing.” >> Everybody, there’s not a week that goes by when I don’t get the strangest of compliments. Someone will stop me and say, “Peter, you’ve got such nice skin.” Honestly, I never thought, especially at

[00:52:01] age 64, I’d be hearing anyone say that I have great skin. And honestly, I can’t take any credit. I use an amazing product called One Skin OS01 twice a day, every day. The company was built by four brilliant PhD women who have identified a 10 amino acid peptide that effectively reverses the age of your skin. I love it and like I say, I use it every day, twice a day. There you have it. That’s my secret. You go to oneskin.co and write peter at checkout for a discount on the same product I use. Okay, now back to the episode. I want to hit another one of your points here and then we’re going to shift to uh to crypto, which is AI doesn’t take your job, it lets you do any job. I think that’s a really important element here that uh needs people need to understand and start to internalize. Why don’t you give your favorite examples? Yeah. So, so for example, um you can get to a six or a seven on art, on graphic design. People who couldn’t code can do prototypes of things. You can now do a prototype version in almost any area.

[00:53:01] So, it’s amazing for founders. It’s amazing for self-directed people. It’s amazing for people who have something in their mind’s eye, but they just couldn’t get it out, right? It’s also amazing for people who have time on their hands, but not money because they can prompt and prompt and prompt and prompt and get like a good image or a drawing for something if they lack the budget. But to polish it and to actually get it to like ship and production level currently, you you need somebody who’s an expert in the area to actually be able to debug the symbols usually. Again, unless you’re smart enough that you can teach yourself with it. So realizing that it actually more, you know, the the Heinline quote about uh you know, a human being should be able to like >> um chop lumber. I’ll get it wrong, but you know what I’m talking about, right? >> Yeah. Exactly. He’s like he’s like a human being should be able to basic things you should be able. >> Yeah. Exactly. >> Go. >> No. No. Go ahead. >> I’m paraphrasing. Chop lumber, write a sonnet, like make wine, um sing a song, etc., etc. Specialization is for insects. Right. He’s basically talking

[00:54:00] about Right. So, in an interesting sense, where I think AI does take us towards is a greater degree of robotic archy. smaller communities can be more self-sufficient if you take that’s what I mean by the internet versus China going back to that like you can have a thousand million person network states where you have robots >> it’s effectively decentralizing across the board large companies don’t I mean large companies used to gather all the talent and and parse them out a little bit at a time today a team of one or small group can do whatever is needed to >> that’s right so it reverses the extreme specialization of the 20th century your wingspan increases right there’s lots of things you can do at an okay level, right? You can learn what you can’t don’t know and so on. And so long as you’re self-critical about it, knowing that the AI can be wrong, you can be wrong and so on and so forth, right? So that concept of versatility is there. With that said, for some kinds of areas that are genuinely just like data entry or or something like that, you know,

[00:55:00] many kinds of many kinds of midwit like jobs, right? like you know if you’re just like a lawyer who’s using templates if you’re just a doctor who’s reading from the book or what have you AI can do it maybe with a higher error rate actually in some cases with a lower error rate many cases medical diagnosis AI has got a lower error rate >> no the numbers are st staggeringly in favor of AI alone without humans in a loop right >> that’s right so AI in medicine is much cheaper orders of magnitude faster because you don’t have to go to an appointment and so on it’s more personal you can get not just a second opinion a 20th opinion so for certain areas is it’s a complete transformation and it’s a radical radical radical improvement. Medicine is one of them, law is one of them. Um because you know basically what you do is you use AI, you write all the contracts and then you have the lawyers review and sign off and on the end so you don’t have to do the thousand an hour lawyer, right? Similarly with the doctors, you go and research everything with AI. It’s like an ultimate search engine and then you go and you get your prescription or whatever from the doctor after you’ve gone and done all your

[00:56:00] stuff. So they’re the printout step, the final certification verification step. That’s how people are using it in practice. But it doesn’t mean that you have that MD or JD yet. That state certification is still a dangling thing. And there’s going to be enormous pressure from the AMA, the ABA, and others to ban or limit the use of AI kind of like unions, but white collar unions. >> Yeah, I think you made a really important point for for the listeners too, which is that the the different areas of endeavor are moving at very very different rates. Uh and the two big factors are can it evaluate itself and the other one is is it is it regulated in some way but you know medicine is moving a billion miles an hour. Law is able to move a billion miles an hour but you know you have regulatory issues. Um physics and math and coding are moving a billion miles an hour with no no barriers. There’s no regulatory barriers. Are they what do you So give me like okay so let me a concrete example would be the protein folding right like what Deise won the Nobel Prize for right that’s genuinely something where there was a huge you

[00:57:01] know that was a >> it was a wellposed problem of given the primary sequence infer the 3D structure where the 3D structure comes from PDB and you can verify it with X-ray crystalallography um and uh so so there’s a very known objective function where you can map this far, right? >> But what other you know I don’t know I >> Yeah. So the the four things I named were were um medicine biology. >> Yeah. Go ahead. >> Physics uh math and coding. And of those four, the one where Peter’s the world expert is the one on biology and chemistry. And you’re right within within biology, chemistry, and medicine, there are areas that are very very discreet and evaluatable and others that aren’t. So that one’s the one of the four that I mentioned that’s pretty murky like but you know within that there’s probably 20 different dimensions. So the you know specifically like if you’re reading scans like you know here the the fidelity of a scan can

[00:58:00] be many many terabytes of data no radiologist can read it but when you find something in the scan it’s crystal clear that you found it. So that one self-evaluates very very easily. It’s like yeah this if I had the time to look at it I would have found that but I didn’t have the time to look at it and this so so those are the areas that’ll move very very quickly and then there are these other murkier areas like can you build a full cell simulator well you know that’s more of a synthetic data and simulation problem the AI will keep up with it if you can build the evaluator or the simulator but can you actually build that >> okay so here’s here’s my view the areas I know fairly well are bioen coding and I have I mean like I know some physics and math but I haven’t kept up with the frontier of it here’s what I’d say about bio um AI is amazing for like obviously the protein folding problem but another thing biomedical text mining all the papers that were locked in archives and so and so forth being able to put together the information about p-53 in this paper and that paper and all the contradictions and all the references and so and so forth it’s amazing for doing natural language search synthesis summary of large corpora I feel it’s

[00:59:00] definitely going to accelerate biomedical innovation in that sense and obviously as you just talked about for diagnosis of both text and for images and mixed kinds of things and so on so it’s smash smashingly useful in biio medicine. But I’d say that a lot of that is not the creation really of net new information so much as the synthesis and bridging of existing things. Like you’ve got a bunch of existing nodes and then AI is really amazing at interpolating. And sometimes that is in a sense net new because that synthesis is itself useful, but that’s distinct from points outside the envelope that are like new physics or new math or new biology. And so >> let me use this as a jumping point. Did you see Demis’ prediction of curing all disease by 2035? And then did you see Dario’s prediction of potentially doubling the human lifespan in the next decade as a result of AI? I’m curious if you’ve seen any of those and what your thoughts are. >> I’ve seen those. >> Yeah. >> I So here’s what I think about that. Um first of all, obviously these are smart guys and I love what they’ve done and I’m big fans of both Claude and Gemini and everything they’ve done. Okay, so

[01:00:01] let me start with that. Okay, so first is AI is below the state and crypto is above the state. Okay, what I mean by that is crypto with Bitcoin and with smart contracts and so on is a replacement for the Fed, for the SEC and crypto is actually able to have the political strength to go and take over the government and deregulate not just crypto but AI, right? AI is below the state. So therefore all these biomedical >> break when you say below the state you mean controlled by the state. >> Correct. That’s right. Like you know like above the API, below the API, right? Crypto is above the state, AI is below the state. Okay. And uh what I mean by that also >> for the for the moment there is there is very much a potential future on on the post side of >> potential future. >> Yes. >> Yes. That’s right. There’s potential future where you have like autonomous law and so but right now as it currently stands the reason I say that is a lot of the AI people as much as I like them they essentially assume a benevolent or at least functional state. Like for example, they they think of the US verse China as like a unitary America. It’s

[01:01:01] got like a functional government with high state capacity and it’s making rational acts as if it was a cold war or something like that, right? Versus a shambolic like blue America versus red America versus tech guys versus everybody yelling at each other and doing adversarial things versus each other, right? And so in the same way like the cure all diseases thing if it’s not engaging with the FDA if it’s not engaging with the regulatory process with CPT with AMA with all that kind of stuff I have seen for 20ome years that the primary blocker on genomics and on biotech is the regulatory state. It is the but we’re also you know human 8 billion humans across the planet have the same biology and you can get to a geographic arbitrage where if there is a solution that’s come up I can go to you know my friend President Blly in El Salvador and have the treatment there. >> Um and in fact it’s been it’s been you know longevity tourism has been something that’s been going now for a decade until finally the new come in. >> Absolutely. So, so Prospera for example, right, which actually has mini circle

[01:02:00] which Altman and others and you know I’ve put some to check in there and so on and so forth. So mini circle is actually gene therapy on existing humans um far nivy has posted about it how he took that Patre’s post about it he feels stronger like Bezos started following Farb because of that he saw that you know farb strength and so on. >> I’m still I’m still waiting for the science to get published there. It’s it’s a lot it’s a lot of people’s opinions, right? >> It’s a lot of people’s opinions. But the thing is that we’re going back into the era of big effectsiz drugs. Okay, just to explain what I mean by this. Essentially, the entire FDA was really about the entire FDA era. If you go prior to the FDA, you have Banting and Best who won the Nobel Prize, right? Why they win the Nobel Prize? Because they came up with the idea for insulin supplementation to to treat diabetes. They tested on dogs. They tested on themselves. They tested on willing patients. Those patients leapt up out of the bed and then they had scaled production with Eli Liy for the entire North American continent. And so they started their work in like 1921, scaled by 1923. That was when pharma moved at

[01:03:02] the speed of software before the modern FDA. And in fact, why many drugs are grandfathered because they were in wide use before the FDA and you just had trial and error over many years figuring out how they worked. Crucially, that was not phase one, two, three clinical trials. That was not case control studies, right? Like case control studies are like AB tests. You know what? There’s no case control study on the effect of regulation itself. >> The regulatory state. >> Go ahead. I want this a very important point. I just want point. >> Yeah. >> Okay. You don’t have a jurisdiction with and without some regulation to see whether the regulation is actually holding something back, right? >> Or actually saving lives, right? And the whole point is that you you value the lives that you don’t kill versus the lives that you don’t. >> And tort tort law is totally messed up. If you if you make one little mistake, it’s a hundred million dollar settlement. If you if a thousand people die when they could have been cured, nobody pays anything. It’s just totally >> exactly right. >> Yeah, >> that’s right. So the FDA the fundamental issue actually gets back even upstream of the FDA is risk tolerance, right? At

[01:04:01] any big company risk budget is always scarcer than budget, right? It’s easier often to spend a huge amount of money than to take a risk because people are just, you know, it’s just one of those things. You have to have founder DNA to have the political capital to take a risk. If you fail, what would happen? Right? This is why Bezos believes in doesn’t believe in bet the company bets believes in lots of small bets, right? But you have to have the psychology and the legitimacy to do that. So the decentralization of the world and the arising of all of these startup societies, network states and um you know new you know freedom cities and so on and so forth will mean more jurisdictions where you can actually opt in and you can have a new system of laws all the special economic zones and so on and so forth. So that’s actually the bottleneck not so much look I I love AI it’s amazing I love biotech that’s amazing but it’s really the regulatory state that is the thing that is holding this back right and the issue is that a lot of AI guys not you know are are effectively docel you know like for example Leopold’s paper right he writes

[01:05:01] about the US and China as if like it’s the United States rather than the disedited states >> you know he writes about it as if like Newsome isn’t fighting you know Trump isn’t fighting you know like like the New New York Times is in publishing abolish the Supreme Court and pack the judges as if it’s not like a food fight social war every single day, right? If if you actually showed the political chaos in the backdrop, he it’s like, you know, somebody talking about on the eve of >> China’s warlord era that they’re going to launch a space program, you know, >> you talk a lot about uh Bitcoin. We’re going to get to crypto in a moment. there is a direct correlation between people who are pro say they’re Bitcoin maximalists or Bitcoin advocates uh and longevity. I’m curious in your decadel long vision of the future how much does longevity play into that? How long does expanded health span at all? It’s incred. So I used to have as my Twitter bio immutable money, infinite frontier, eternal life >> and all three of those things go together actually because for example

[01:06:01] we’re not going to be able to explore the stars without life extension and probably radiation tolerant genes and other kinds of things, right? or sending robots and and plugging in. >> Yeah, you can send robots. You can do other things, but you know, to terraform Mars, we’ll probably have to modify ourselves, you know, like you’re just not probably, you know, >> or send the robots first and build the environments for us little meat sacks to live in, right? >> Yeah, that’s also possible. That’s right. So, may maybe we’re, you know, we can figure that out. It might be some some degree of robots, some degree of, you know, self modification. Um, like for example, there’s various groups on the face of the earth that have different altitude adaptations, right? Kenyans, Andians, um, and, uh, Ethiopians each have different altitude adaptations. Some are in the blood, some are lungs, and so forth. You can imagine stacking those together, getting radiation tolerances, this tolerance, similar to how AI synthesizes from different nodes. You can take different genetic mutations. There’s a company called Variant.io that looks at that kind of stuff, right? Like looking for real life X-Men, taking their mutations and and adding them. But coming back, what is the connection? There is a deep connection, by the way, between Bitcoin

[01:07:00] and Life Extension, please. >> And actually, it’s gone back a long time. And the the fundamental similarities is as follows. Um the traditional financial system says that yes hyperinflation is bad but a little inflation is good and deflation is also bad. Right? So that’s to say yeah losing all your money is bad but the New Zealand target is 2% devaluation of your currency every year and deflation is bad. Then people would go to money hoarding and so on and so forth right? Mhm. >> And so what that basically says is every year you lose 2% a little bit of wealth, right? And the traditional medical system says, yeah, rapid death is bad, but trying to live forever is also weird, right? Reversing death is also weird. Instead, you should die a little bit every year. >> Mhm. You lose a little bit of health every year. Okay, so that’s the deep similarity where the traditional financial system says you lose a little bit of wealth every year and traditional medical system says you lose a bit of

[01:08:01] health every year. Okay, and none of them really look to first principles and say why again why do we have to do that? Why do we go >> why is there a hole? Why is there a hole in our bucket? >> Why is there a hole in the bucket? Right? Because we know you guys have seen the phenotypes for the mouse longevity stuff. You know, you’ve seen the stuff. We have case studies with the bohead whale living 200 years and Greenland shark living 500 years. And the issue is how do we repair our software and hardware to get there. And it’s not a matter of if, it’s only a matter of when. >> Yes. And I think that basically the big thing we have to work on is making the moral case for it and also boosting the risk tolerance. For example, people right now they’ll go bungee jumping, they’ll go skydiving, they’ll serve in the military and they’ll they’ll take, you know, risks with their life and some of those risks are foolhardy and some of them are for the collective in a sense, right? Fight, you know, we should have medical heroes. Similar to how like, you know, for example, the early airplane pilots were considered heroes for

[01:09:00] risking their lives. You know, no plane crashes, no planes. No train crashes, no trains. Right? There was somebody, you guys, you guys are all, you know, of a certain age. You remember the CRC handbook of chemistry and physics? >> I do. >> Yeah. Yeah. Oh my god. >> That’s what existed before we competed. >> Walls of them. Walls of them. >> Well, exactly. We all had that in high school, right? The CRC handbook of chemistry and physics, if you recall up to a certain point, the compounds had a smell and a taste list and then they stopped listing them. Why? There was some guy who, you know, his last thing he did sniff sign. He wrote down almonds. He took a hit for the team. Okay. Hero of science. That’s why we know what it smells like or whatever. Okay. Right. And so that is actually in my view the scarce resource that we need is we need the like risk tolerant people >> and um risk tolerant jurisdictions. Right. >> So let’s let’s tie let’s tie it back to Bitcoin. I put out a tweet last night asking uh my followers to >> uh you know you propose questions. I got

[01:10:01] 225 questions back. So we’re going to start with number one and march our way through. But but seriously um Bitcoin and the connection to longevity and then do you see you know when we built the internet we built it without a financial layer uh we now have crypto as a financial layer. Do you see Bitcoin as a primary currency for AI machine learning in the future? So there’s a few questions that are stacked, right? Let’s get with Bitcoin and longevity first as a correlate. >> Okay. So you know how like um you know how power generation works, you have very high voltage at the power station and then there’s step down transformers and then it comes a little trickle out to power your phone over a cable, right? In the same way, Bitcoin is like really high voltage money, okay? And so it’s like transferred relatively infrequently. It’s like digital gold, right? And then you have this various proxies for Bitcoin that then you can just blast on chain. Okay. And roughly speaking, Bitcoin is already at the the kind of transaction volume of Fed wire.

[01:11:00] So think of it as like the Fed wire of the free world. >> Okay? And then on top of that, you can have various layers. You know, for example, Bitcoin scales in a sense offchain and on other chains. I know people will say lightning. Let’s leave lightning aside for the sake of this argument. Many lightning implementations are in practice essentially peering agreements between lightning apps. So it’s similar to like off-chain transaction on Bitcoin uh offchain Bitcoin transactions on Coinbase or on Binance. These apps have tens of millions in some cases hundreds of millions of users. So it’s like within France or within Germany transacting between yourself very very quickly. And then when you want to transact between Coinbase and Binance then they can do settlement of Bitcoin like the true ups between them. And then of course you can withdraw from the system as well, right? And so that kind of hub and spoke system is not quite the same as a total peer-to-peer system, but you can get extremely far with that. I think >> you’ve deviated from the primary question though. >> Yeah. Let’s go back. >> So because you said will it be the currency of the internet? >> Yes.

[01:12:00] >> The the issue is the transaction volume for pure Bitcoin BTC is not the currency of AI. But WBTC, wrapped BTC, offchain BTC uh can can get there. It’s the same analogy that you have in the main world where if you want to pay with gold, it’s the nightmare. And as you get more and more to the lighter transactions, you can play with a debit card, but you don’t have great security. And so you have a trade-off there. And so you can do many, many more transactions with a debit card that tend to be small transactions and you can do them all you want. When you get to the heavier stuff, it’s smaller, bigger transactions, more heavy, more graded, more secure. >> So you wrap BTC on Salana, you can blast it on chain as much as you want. It can be the currency. >> Exactly. >> One question from the community is uh if you’re willing to say, what percentage of your net wealth is in Bitcoin right now? >> Not willing to say. >> Okay. >> Um but >> would it be a major a majority? >> Uh well, that would be willing to say let’s just say, okay, put it like this.

[01:13:01] Um only hold in USD what you can afford to lose. >> Okay, fair enough. Where else besides Bitcoin would you hold? >> So, okay. Okay. So in terms of USD is your hot wallet. >> Nobody asked me this. Huh? >> USD is your hot wallet. >> Well, so in terms of fiat currency by process of elimination, I would say SGD or maybe AED, meaning Singapore dollars or the UAE there. Those are the two jurisdictions. I would not say Switzerland anymore. The CHF basically the Swiss after the Russia sanctions and the credit Swiss debacle and you know Obama kind of kicking in the doors of Swiss bank account. Switzerland ain’t Switzerland anymore, right? So the Swiss franc is not what it was. Um, and western currencies in general I wouldn’t hold, nor would I hold the JPY. Uh, and probably not the Korean one. But if you must hold fiat, I would say the a, you know, the AD is still pegged to the dollar. SGD is soft pegged, but they’re independently managed on their own ledger to my knowledge.

[01:14:00] And so and they’re also global currencies and they have open capital accounts. And I think western countries are going to have closed capital accounts soon. Even in 2026 is being proposed like a remittance tax for the USD. Right. So I’d say my advice on fiat would be a SGD. >> But if the dollar you’re essentially holding the dollar >> well for now, but a lot of the a lot of the east is moving to so one of the things that’s happening is bricks is stacking gold bricks like states. So you have you seen the Korean DMZ like where North Korea and South Korea are? Yeah. >> Yeah. Imagine like this is not exactly how it is, but imagine like on the Russia China border there was something like that and they would just like hand each other gold bricks each day, right? >> Yeah. So, so they’d actually do physical settlements. It doesn’t actually work like that, but conceptually it works like that where states can settle back and forth in gold bricks, right? and they can actually afford the security and the trucks and the magnetometers and what all this kind of stuff to to verify

[01:15:00] that the uh uh that the gold is real and that no one’s coming to steal it and that can back fiat currencies because it used to back fiat currencies right so I do think that gold both gold and digital gold is a currency of states and digital gold is a currency the reserve currency of the network those will both rise but western fiat won’t right so those currencies are currently dollar back now with that said this could a 10 first all newspapers went online and then put all in all local papers died because their geographical monopoly went away and NTWA Washington Post they survived and then they basically died against X and internet native social media right that exact kind of thing is going to happen to currencies first all currencies go on chain fiat currencies then most of them die because the only reason they exist is because of their geographical monopoly. Once you can hold in your wallet the best currency in the

[01:16:01] world, why do you have to hold the currency of your geography again? You don’t. Currencies start competing on ideology and features rather than geography. Just like news, online news competes on the base of ideology and features as opposed to geography. Like the if the Miami Tribune and the San Francisco Chronicle or Miami Herald and the Chronicle and the Pokeypsy whatever are all reprinting the same story that only worked when they had trucks in a geographic advantage. So all local currencies compete with each other. Most of them die. USD, you know, R&B, maybe a few others make it and then all of those get devalued against BTC. >> All right, let me let me take this back to AI. So in a world where AI agents are negotiating and contracting and paying each other autonomously uh what do you see as the role of crypto in that in that play? Well, it so clearly crypto is the currency of AI and the reason for that is crypto is the currency of the internet. >> Since for example, when you set up a program, you can have that program

[01:17:00] access private keys. Like one way to think about it is crypto is a 10 or 100x or infinity x or the existing system on many axis that people don’t normally think about. For example, you can set up a bank account equivalent, a crypto wallet in fractions of a second. You can set up as many as you want. You can bind those to whatever you want, right? All that cannot be done with a bank account. Traditional bank account, you have to go to the the store, no s the the branch and present your ID. So to simply set up a program or a robot and give it a wallet takes fractions of a second. Just that practical thing alone, forget everything else I’m going to say. Just that practical thing alone means obviously crypto is a currency of the robot and of the AI, right? Then going further, like legacy fiat is locked down in so many different ways. Um, you don’t notice this as when you just are buying Starbucks or whatever as a mezzanine level transaction, but if you want to do transactions that are very large, very small, very fast, very automatic, very international, very transparent or very complex, you need crypto. >> Will these banks make it or will they be

[01:18:02] all uh displaced by cryptonative banks? >> They’re already getting displaced by It’s a good question. They’re all becoming crypto exchanges. Crypto exchanges are the new banks because they actually have peering relationships across borders. How many years? How many years before we see the current major banks no longer, >> you know, around? When when do they become disrupted? When do they become Macy’s? >> I think you have to distinguish between retail banking and the other types of banking. Retail banking really gets >> Yeah, I totally agree. I Yeah, I I was at the Washington Post working for Don Graham for a year, right, when it was, you know, the internet, Google was just taking over the world and and there was no turning it around. Uh and you know that was kind of tragic and and all investigative reporting died in the pro in the process. Uh I don’t see it the same way though with with banks because bank you’re talking about M1 here. Everything you said is exactly right. It’s going to happen bali just the way you said. Uh but banks don’t just sit there as a place to hold M1. They they

[01:19:00] have a lot more you know they make loans to consumers. They evaluate their credit. There’s, you know, there’s many types of banks that but very little of what they do is impacted by the transition that you just outlined. >> And so it’s it’s going to happen the way you you you phrased it. But yeah, what what’s the subset that’s impacted? >> But I still want to hear your predictions on when we’re going to see the current banks we all know and love. >> I won’t name them, you know, disappear. >> I think I mean, so disappear. I mean, like Macy’s is I think it’s still around. >> Yeah, it’s still around. Okay. And it become become minor in players. No. Irrelevant. Yeah. >> Yeah. I I would argue I mean among the power user it’s already happened. >> Sure. >> Right. In the sense of you basically like you can have a crypto like crypto is being used for like Thailand for example just switched over to accepting crypto for various things. Many countries are >> everybody fountain life is now accepting crypto for payments on your longevity treatments. Right. >> Totally. So so by the way China is the exception to everything I’m saying. Right. Because China will maintain control like the great firewall and China’s system like CCP and BTC will be

[01:20:02] like the USA and USS or the USSR and the USA of this century right because they’re like you know the centralized party total control over everything versus the decentralized currency >> 2030 2035 I’m still looking >> 2035 I think but let me explain why right why do I think it comes faster than you you might think >> I’m going to keep him I’m going to keep his his hand on the stove and >> very short answer short answer I wrote I wrote another article on biology.com called the billionaire flipping Okay. And so a long time ago, Olaf Carson, we a founder of Polychain, is a friend of mine for a long time. We calculated somewhere between $100,000 and a million dollars for Bitcoin, half the world’s billionaires become crypto. >> Mhm. Yes. >> Okay. And it bas it basically eats everything else of value in their in their portfolio. >> That’s right. The the next 10x dilutes down all fiat billionaires. >> Yep. For sure. >> By a lot. >> And including >> that’s what people don’t get like Huh? Go ahead. including states. >> Including states. Including banks. >> Yes. >> Right. The next

[01:21:00] >> slow slow this down for everybody. I want people to understand what this means. Right. So if someone’s got if someone’s got, you know, a million dollars of crypto in the bank, it becomes, you know, and they had a million dollars of other assets. Crypto is 50% of the portfolio. All of a sudden, if it goes 10x, all of a sudden crypto is 90% 95% of the portfolio. >> That’s exactly right. and the purchasing power of it. At a certain point, what happens is it destabilizes and it goes 1 million, 10 million because people flip and that’s actually the numer right that’s already happened in the crypto space where all investments are denominated in bitcoin terms. Do you see any future do you see any future in which crypto uh fails in any fashion or bitcoin fails in any fashion? Are we way past that right now? I mean the one of the things >> there’s definitely ways it could fail. So let me say I how how it could fail. So first is um so quantum is now okay let me talk about so so quantum cryptography um that’s an area to watch okay the main issue is not that quantum

[01:22:01] safe it’s a very technical issue but uh quantum quantum safe encryption can be deployed in bitcoin but moving all of the funds would take a long time right moving them onchain so there would have to be some sort of hard fork or something like that which you know and and This is the currency of development as I understand it. I’m not in the bits and byes so you may be misspeaking but the um there’d have to be some significant protocol change to enable that like a giant you know uh like airlift out right like a deployment of something that significantly changed the code but miners and everybody would have to consent to that they probably would but that would be a thing with that said crypto as a class will not disappear from this earth because there’s now enough different currencies with enough different protocols and enough different mechanisms that there’s a degree of herd immunity, right? There’s enough different immune systems where the kinds of vulnerabilities that proof of work has with Bitcoin are distinct from the vulnerabilities that proof of stake has

[01:23:00] and actually complimentary. Proof of stake, you can have a bunch of humans that are distributed globally, right? In theory, if they colluded, they could rewrite the blockchain. Proof of work has requires physical data centers, but they can’t rewrite the blockchain, right? So there’s different failure modes and then you can do things where you hash Ethereum state to Bitcoin and so so I think that crypto as a class of things will not disappear from the earth any individual chain could be attacked but then what could happen is you can snapshot that chain and issue it on another chain >> right so you can have lifeboats >> I think the core here is that once you understand the Byzantine general’s problem with that innovation you can’t undo that it’s here >> yeah that’s right I mean look it’s also I think it’s very possible that you at something like see up until this point crypto you know with social media do you guys remember the social network movie? >> Sure. >> Okay. Of course. >> It’s it’s worth it’s worth rewatching for one reason which is it came out in 2010 and it’s what’s remarkable from the

[01:24:01] from its absence of the movie is there’s absolutely no mention whatsoever of politics. No mention whatsoever. Facebook is treated as if it was like Universal Studios. It’s like like a theme park and amusement park for people to poke and like each other. Right? This was despite the fact that the Arab Spring had already happened or that was happening and like there’s destabilization of governments and so on and so forth. Right? So like it was known that you know Twitter, Facebook place in the Middle East and so on had been at least partially destabilized by this stuff. I may be getting the timeline wrong but there’s definitely stuff in the late 2000s before I think it was Iran or something the tweets must flow. There was stuff that was before the social network movie came out and obviously all all politics became social media in the years after that, right? And then there was a counterattack on social media and every possible attack vector you could imagine on social media that people thought was unthinkable due to social conventions came out. People were deplatformed, they were censored, they were shadowbanned, like the president was deplatformed, then he was replatformed. whole thing became a battleground as we all know for the last you know and yet in 2010 if you had told me even with 500 million people on

[01:25:01] Facebook that in 10 years the single most important political issue in the world will be whether or not the president of the United States can tweet that would still seem like oh my god biology you’re taking the internet too seriously it’s just exaggerating blah blah blah right similar to you guys at Singularity University people will always say oh my god you’re taking this stuff too seriously or whatever right but so with Bitcoin by 2035 or so maybe sooner maybe later just like you’re not the president if If you don’t have a social media account, you’re not like a country if you don’t have cryptocurrency. Like you’re not solvent. >> Yeah. >> And you’re not you’re not able to operate in the in the accelerating exponential future. Um >> that’s right. Bitcoin Bitcoin becomes government of governments. >> Yeah. I want to hit I want to hit on I want to hit on networks. I want to hit on on network state network state school. Your your network school. um you have um basically gone out and built a global talent fellowship in the network school. Uh you’ve launched this and I’m curious about your thoughts around dark

[01:26:01] talent. The idea that you know there’s this incredible bidding war going on right now in the US for AI talent. You know million-dollar salaries, 10 hundred million, you know, the hypothetical billion dollar offers. And there’s so much talent out there and it’s become so easy for this talent to gain access to capabilities. Talk to me about what you’ve called dark talent if you would. >> Totally. Okay. So, I I believe in the America that I grew up in and I think that we’re forking where the internet is taking American values and the land is becoming something very different, right? It’s going anti-immigrant, anti- capitalist and so on and so forth. So, I don’t think that as an immigrant capitalist you should build your life in the US. I think it’s going to get very very nasty unfortunately. And moreover, a lot of people can’t get visas. They can’t get in there and so forth. So, I moved as far away as I could, right? Uh 10,000 miles away. >> When did you of course a very you know Huh? >> How when did you move? >> 2020. >> Okay. >> Yeah. I I

[01:27:01] continue on continue on the thing. >> Yeah. So, so I’m just giving the motivation, right? So, motivation is I believe in America just like in the same way that America was like Britain 2.0. I think of the internet as Britain 3.0 0 or America 2.0. It’s like the version 3.0. Like America was 10x bigger than Britain. America went from common law to constitution. America in had many more of the people of the world. America was even bigger and better than its very very um you know accomplished progenditor. And the internet is like America the next version. Why? It’s like 10x bigger than America with crypto. It has freedom freedom of contracts, freedom of speech. you know, an Indian unfortunately may be a secondass citizen nowadays in the US, but they’re a first- class citizen on the internet and they have the same monetary policy and contract rights and and smart contracts and all that kind of stuff. And and I think that actually lots of Westerners, lots of Americans also believe in that. And um so in my own way, I’m trying to stick up for like what I think of as American values and uh you know, like and and kind of keep the torch aloft, right? Think of me as a minority report.

[01:28:01] Maybe hopefully I’m wrong. Maybe all you guys can fix it and that’s great and and salute and and good job, right? But I’m like the parachute, right? I’m the I’m the minority report. I’m the backup plan. I’m the hedge, right? And I want to keep the flame of freedom and democracy and capitalism and so on alive. And why do I even say democracy, by the way? I think lots of Western states are effectively becoming one party states. Like in California, you can hold elections, but the party always wins. The Democrat party always wins. It’s being jerrymandered even further. In response, Republicans are doing the same in Florida. And of course, communism in China has a one party state. So, Democrats, Republicans, communists have all built one party states. So, democracy is going to be >> bring me back. Bring me back to >> I know I’m coming back to one second. Yes. >> Okay. Yes. Drown. Yeah. So, they built one party states. So, democracy is between those states, right? Meaning you’re going to go from the two-party system to the thousand community system. And to go to the thousand community system, you need to build one community and then you have to scale that around the world. And so we’re a startup society that’s a that’s a template for

[01:29:00] other sharp societies. We are bringing all you in all the stark talent which has been overlooked from Latin America, from the Middle East, from Eastern Europe. Also, by the way, white kids from the Midwest, right? Asian kids who get quoted out by, you know, at Harvard or something like that. Anybody anywhere I, you know, if they’re working hard, they’re online, they they they’re they’re doing well, I will bring them in, fund them, level them up. >> So discuss how many people you bring in, how are you funding them, and what’s your mission? Are they building companies there? >> Well, so right now it’s out of the bankabology and that’s uh that’s that’s fairly healthy kind of thing, right? But eventually we may take outside capital and so and so forth. Um you know Paul Graham did Y cominator out of his back pocket for a long time, right? Um and and I think that’s always the right way of doing things is you know if you can bootstrap it or whatever you know basically like you know things the world has been fortunate to me so I want to kind of help others up and and do that for them as well. Um you asked so how am I then you asked who where are the people coming from and the answer is all over basically anywhere English is spoken. So my my feel my feeling is that

[01:30:01] there you know we hear about everybody in San Francisco uh and all the talent wars that are going on there but I have to believe that throughout China which by the way 50% of meta’s AI researchers are Chinese right and we’ve got this crazy amount of of intelligence capability centered in math and most of Southeast Asia and India uh not to mention South and Central America that there’s a huge amount of talent that is not being tapped into that could easily create the next unicorns. and and the >> not could but they will. >> They they will. >> Yes, >> they will. Now, the thing about that is um absolutely and one thing I’d also say is and we’re going to be rolling this out in the near future. Maybe some fraction of people, a small fraction of people will be founders and they’ll create unicorns and I agree with that. They’re very important. We’re going to find them. However, the the number of people who are unicorn founders globally is less than number of proathletes, right? There’s like 1500 2,000ish unicorns. say 2x you know two co-founders on average per so a few

[01:31:00] thousand unicorn co-founders and there’s easily 10,000 plus pro aletes depending on you count especially having said that something fascinating is the teal fellowship I think 5.6% 6% is the number of teal fellows have become unicorn founders which is insane. >> Yeah, >> it’s amazing. >> It is possible. >> So >> my my view is what I’m so certainly I do f I do fund companies. >> Yeah. >> And I do fund currencies but I’m most interested is is the third thing communities. >> So I think 1994 with Netscape was really the first true internet startup right if you remember that moment because it had all the modern features. You could download the software on the web. It went viral. billion dollar IPO transformed the world all those features of the modern internet startup multi-billion dollar IPO in the 90s when that was really real money 15 years later the first internet currency bitcoin right and that was a template for things that came after that and I think what we’re doing the way I think of it is the first real internet community so internet company internet currency internet community why are internet communities I think going to be

[01:32:00] even more valuable than internet companies or currencies the reason is that they’re actually the platform on which those things are built >> like Just like China is the platform upon which all their companies were built. >> Exactly. That’s right. And if you actually did it Exactly. Very good point because I did a spreadsheet and it was the first time I’d ever written one quadrillion unironically. >> Okay. Here’s why. If you go So obviously Google’s a trillion, Facebook’s, you know, a trillion on that order of magnitude and so on. And that’s thought of as the most valuable thing you can do, right? But I’m pretty sure cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is going to get bigger than that. Um because it’s actually still in its, you know, phase like this. Actually those tech companies can still grow you know beyond that but if you think of a country and what the country’s valuation is how would you put a valuation on that so if you take let’s say Singapore okay and you take its number of square miles okay and the price per square foot you do get a valuation or you take the number of people and their average net worth you get a valuation on the order of 10 trill

[01:33:00] >> okay that actually kind of seems reasonable right then if you uh if you say okay what’s 10x Singapore then maybe South Korea ish is like about 10x the size of sing but it’s a little less than 10x but let’s say it’s on the order of like a 100 trill and then what’s China it’s like 10x South Korea or will be or depending so that’s like a quadrillion right >> so I actually do think that all of the startup societies together when you have a thousand million person network states and they may not all be a million people some might be 20 million some might be 500k that is actually the next big thing that is actually the startup societies that we’re going to have a lot of those in 10 or 20 years >> I want to bring this down to your advice and for entrepreneurs right now and you know uh >> people who are employees in America in you know sort of uh they’re they’re listening to this they’re excited about technology but it’s not this hasn’t been their lives so far. So between the entrepreneurs out there and people just listening who are tech fans what’s your

[01:34:00] what’s your you know top points of advice as we as we uh wrap here. Great. Before you answer that question, Dave, I know you’ve got a heart out, buddy. Uh, so thank you for your time. I will call you on the phone in just a little bit when we wrap here, continue our conversation. Bali, um, a lot of fans out there, uh, who are going to listen to this podcast probably two or three times to be able to absorb it just like I am, but if you could, uh, you know, what’s your most heartfelt advice, uh, to both entrepreneurs and the average individual listening to this? Okay. So for entrepreneurs, um, first I would say go direct. Uh, build your own following on social media, get good at AI, create content, don’t give interviews to legacy media, only do tech podcasts and, uh, tech shows, but even more than that, basically build your own influential individual voice um, as a creator, as the authentic voice of your company. Don’t hire public relations people. Only hire creators if you’re hiring them. You don’t have to hire too many but you know

[01:35:00] and basically don’t outsource your content creation. Content creation is as important as code and you should be doing that in-house and you should be using all the modern tools and you don’t have to use full AI by the way. You can use half AI. So go direct. That’s number one. Um number two move to Florida or Texas. Get there as soon as you can if you can. Okay. Get to a place. >> Do not be where I am and sitting here in the People’s Republic of Santa Monica. >> You asked me before. >> I know. I love it. Yeah. >> Move to Starbase maybe where Elon is. Right. And um you know essentially take it from a company town to a portfolio town and a tech town. If you’re if I was in the US, I’d be in Texas or Florida, specifically Miami or Austin and near Starbase and so on and cluster with other folks there. I think property rights have a better chance of getting protected there. Um number three, if you have cryptocurrency, get your keys off exchanges. Get your coins off exchanges. Do that now. Uh figure out your cold storage. Figure out all that stuff. Um and and don’t talk to anybody about the details of it. Right. Okay. Number four.

[01:36:00] Um >> you can I hit that one. You’re concerned about that. You think exchanges are not going to make it. >> Um I’m just saying that basically you don’t want to I I don’t have any imminent thing, but I’m just saying that do that now. >> And >> there there are two things. Exchanges can be and governments can take them over. >> Yes. Both both. Exactly. Like look, if Bitcoin really really runs, if it really runs, then at a certain point people basically start getting scared and then the all kinds of crazy things are going to happen, right? So be in a state like basically like where property rights are respected, where Bitcoin is resp like for example, Texas, I think the state legislature had something which is like the right to hold Bitcoin shall not be infringed, right? That’s a good place to be, you know, right, with your cryptocurrency and and so on so forth. Um, so A, go direct. Uh, B, move to Florida, Texas. C, crypto and cold storage. Um, D, uh, get involved with

[01:37:00] your local tech community. Tech is a community. And so, actually thinking of it as a community and doing as much offline social. I I almost don’t have to say this because people kind of already do it organically in tech, right? But tech is a community. And so, for example, that might mean not simply homeschooling, but crowdschooling, microschooling, right? Where you’re educating your kids together, right? Start doing collective action, you know, things with tech people in your spare time because you’re going to want community in, I think, the years to follow, right? Uh, you’re going to want people you can rely on in the physical world, not simply the digital world. That’s why I’d go also to those places. Um, finally I would say read as much as you can of bricks content in translation. Okay? Because unless you’ve actually and and travel, if you have not been to Riad, if you haven’t been to Dubai, if you haven’t been to Shanghai, if you haven’t been to Bangalore, if you haven’t seen how much better the rest of

[01:38:02] the world is getting and has gotten >> at a at a meteoric rate over the last 5 to 10 years. >> Yes. You aren’t calibrated unless you’ve been to Shenzen, Bangalore, Dubai, and uh and also Eastern Europe. Yeah. Right. Go ahead. >> Yeah. I I I hopefully Russia there’s some peace treaty or something like that. I would also say you know hopefully Russia gets to peace and the Russia Ukraine thing gets to peace. I think Moscow has also improved a lot since the Soviet era right but Eastern Europe, Russia, India, China um and uh and and Dubai and Riad have radically as you know from FII, right? You and I have both been at FI, right? So really calibrate what the world is because movies will not show you that. The only movie that’s shown rich nonwesterners in recent times is probably Crazy Rich Asians or maybe Squid Game, right? And and so they’re not really showing it, right? So you have to get the on the ground experience. Otherwise, you’re not calibrated. >> All right. For the for the general, we you hit that for entrepreneurs. Much of

[01:39:00] that probably still holds for uh for the general public as well. Let’s go to the individual who’s in a job in LA, in San Francisco, in you know, in middle America. uh what’s the most important you know things that they need to be thinking about >> okay so if they are so first is are they good at math or are they not good at math if they are good at math then they should get offline for a month and totally lock in get Shiaam’s outlines self-study maybe use brilliant.org and actually learn the details of computer science and statistics. Do whatever lead code problems they need to do. Um, learn everything that you need to learn to actually understand how to implement gradient descent. Maybe do karpathi stuff. Do fast.ai and then also you can learn on the crypto side of things as well. If you’re interested in that, there’s various courses on this. Maybe I’ll teach another MOO on this. But basically, you know, one month of just really allin self-study, >> focus, focus, focus, >> focus, focus, focus. Get offline. It’ll be there when you get back. You won’t

[01:40:00] miss it. And pencil and paper totally offline Faraday cage environment. This is a big thing I do by the way. I try to spend as as online as I am. You know how like with cars, I’ve mentioned this before with cars. We advance cars because we have electric cars and self-driving cars and in you know even flying cars, but we also have walkable cities. Like we took away the highway from this is one of the great things San Francisco did do over the last 30 years. They took away the highway from the the waterfront, right? And so cities have been made more walkable, more green, the big dig in Boston, right? So you’re both procar, but you’re also in some cases minimum necessary car. You take the car away in certain cases, right? So be, you know, I’m pro internet. I’m pro AI. I’m pro crypto. So all that stuff, but I’m also pro offline, right? So pencil and paper, coffee, quiet, um, focus, you know, like basically that just can’t be um, you know, can’t be overstated how important that I think we’re going to build buildings that are Faraday cage buildings. You know how you go into an elevator and the phone turns

[01:41:00] off, right? We’ll build buildings that are cage buildings that have phone lockers at the entrances where everybody gives the speaker their full attention. We’re actually doing some of that stuff at network school now, right? Just to prototype it. And it’s great. It’s like almost like freeing that people can just they’re free to focus, right? They’re free to be offline because the internet is so addictive. So I would say like offline time is important focusing and uh and then the right balance because it’s kind of like you know getting a great night’s sleep so you’re active during the day right the the the better you can focus offline the stronger you’ll be online and vice versa right okay um number two is uh you know be I mean this is again obvious but uh be involved in building something and get involved in tech in some way right like you should be the reason is The internet is rising, but lots of other things aren’t. There’s the S&P 7 and the S&P 493, right? In many ways, American capital markets minus the internet. Where where’s all the money going into? It’s going into the tech companies, and it’s now going into all the crypto

[01:42:00] treasury companies, right? Which is like the Bitcoin treasury companies, but also Ethereum treasury companies, ton, all this kind of stuff, right? So, in a sense, American capital markets are getting sunset in favor of internet capital markets. And actually if you look um just crypto alone or crypto is the number four global market after Shanghai, NY, NASDAQ and gaining fast and will become the number one global market. Right? >> If you don’t own crypto right now begin >> I mean look I you know I I never give anybody financial advice in that sense but as a technology and as a platform yes it’s taking over right every bank is adopting it and so you should definitely like understand it. Um, and it’s it’s kind of one of those things sometimes what people what happens is people will see something in the news and they’ll see it says it was a scam or whatever and they tune out of it and they come back, you know, years later like, “Wait a second, it actually developed a lot.” Like the dotcom crash and then web 2.0 was like that. People didn’t pay attention to the internet over the 2000s and the whole thing got built back up, right? So that’s a related kind of concept is when you see something in the

[01:43:01] news, especially if it’s like an asset. Again, I’m not telling anybody to buy any asset, but a useful thing to do is set like a if you see something that’s interesting, set a calendar reminder for it. And then 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 days or what have you, you can make a purchase or whatever decision, a research decision when it’s not in the news. >> Because when in the news, it’s usually overpriced or underpriced because it’s making a big move, right? when it’s outside the news, you can kind of you’re not reacting on emotion and you can reallocate your position accordingly, right? So, that’s just something I think is a useful thing to do. You can be hyper hyperrational about especially if you write down, you know, what your long-term thesis on it is. Related to that, don’t gamble, right? There’s a lot, unfortunately, there’s a lot of, you know, day trading type stuff and, you know, I know I know people like to do that, but I think it’s just too hard to do like just buy and hold long run, you know, if you’re if you’re putting something in something. Um, let’s see other things. Uh I would say realize

[01:44:02] that from social media that it’s like watching pro sports in the sense of for example when you watch like tech founders or something like that on X it’s like watching really really successful athletes on TV. Like if you ever dribble the ball it’s actually really hard to dribble a ball and run and dunk and and they make it look effortless. They make it look so easy to do that and it’s really so so so hard right? So, anybody who is building something um well, first you yourself should be a builder, but second, you should also in general not attack other builders, right? It’s always easy to do that on social media. Um it’s a cheap way to make oneself feel superior. Look how dumb Elon is. I can’t believe he missed a spot on that rocket. There’s like a lot of people who do this kind of in, you know what I’m talking about, right? And so, look, if Elon isn’t successful, nobody’s successful. If Elon isn’t smart, really, there’s very few people who are smart. Okay. And so >> that’s a great point. >> You know, so you have to be able to give respect to others to get respect for oneself, right? And so just like, you

[01:45:02] know, I’m not saying slavish. You don’t have to flip to the other extreme, but just game recognized game, right? You know, respect people online and try and build. I mean, I know X is just a player versus player environment. Everybody yells at each other all the time. There’s there’s sites like Farcaster and so on that have a more healthy and civil atmosphere. So try to seek out online communities as well that model the civility that you want to communicate to your friends, to your family members, your loved ones and you know community members. Don’t don’t behave on at least try and be a relatively good example. I’ve recognized by the way that sometimes you have to defend yourself online and it’s a dangerous environment and all that kind of stuff. But try not to be the person who’s doing the first strike, you know. Um try to make it a better world for people in that sense. Um yeah, and I I think that’s a good list. Uh maybe it’s not five for each, but it’s roughly pretty good list. >> Yeah, I appreciate that. >> Couple of comments here. You know, it’s I think it’s awesome you’re building the network uh state movement just because it creates a whole new potential at the

[01:46:00] edge and as the existing fails over, it fails over more elegantly, right? >> That’s that’s exact. Have you read Foundation? >> Yeah, of course. Isab’s foundation series. >> Yeah, exactly. So like Terminus, right? This is like this is terminus where the goal is to reduce the duration of imperial collapse. >> Yeah. Um there’s something you said in that podcast that really blew my mind which was that less than 4% of marriages in the US are between Democrats and Republicans. That really shook me because it really shows the depth of the tribalism and how do you come back from that? I think we have to I mean so one of my fears and I think it’s already happening is in the 2010s it was blue and tech against red in the 2020s it was red and tech against blue and I think by the 2030s if not sooner it’s going to be red and blue against tech >> with socialist and nationalists against internationalist capitalist and some of the backlash to AI where the slop and scams and so some of the backlash to

[01:47:00] crypto there’s now backlash to bio and IVF there’s people who are getting mad at data centers There’s people who are mad at Apple for making phones abroad. There’s people, you know, Elon, unfortunately, people are mad. >> When we start prioritizing data center electricity over residential electricity, >> that kind of stuff, you know, all of this is due to regulations and other kinds of things. But the tech guys, I mean, for example, doing AI in the bluest city, in the bluest state in the union, and making billions of dollars while saying you’re going to put a lot of blues out of work is not a good medium-term to long-term strategy. And so my view is that um tech as a group has to actually sort of realize this and uh and it has to kind of realize that the the bad version is the teal scapegoating where tech is scapegoed for the decline of the fortunes of red and blue and the because tech guys are very publicly being rich. They’re rich online. Oh my god, they’re so rich, right? And a lot of people aren’t and they’re they’re getting hurt by the inflation and so on and so forth,

[01:48:00] right? So, Bali, I want to I would love to have you come back on and continue this conversation. I’ve got a heart out on a board meeting. And I know >> last thing to say is I think there’s hope. I think the internet can lift the boats for everybody. I think we can get to an age of abundance and and all of that stuff. And I’m fundamentally a positive person in that way. And I just think we have to get through some of the white water that’s coming up. >> It’s going to be uh if nothing else an exciting decade ahead. So, uh, ns.com is where people find you. >> Yes. >> Fantastic. And if people want to apply for the network school or the fellowship there, they can find the information ns.com as well. >> That’s right. Just click apply. That’s >> All right, buddy. Listen, thank you for your time. Thank you for your brilliance. And, uh, again, everybody, I hope you enjoyed this episode of WTF with Bology. Uh, and I encourage you listen to it a couple of times. Tell your friends. It’s a chance to up your IQ points 20. >> It needs three listenings. I I didn’t give any links. I just gave verbal citations, but you can look them

[01:49:00] all up. >> And by the way, just a quick thing on on the 20th, we’re doing our exo 10x shift workshop. Links below 100 bucks >> 20th of August. One thing, come to the network state conference in Singapore October 3rd, 2025. NS.com conference and um network conference 2025. So you can see all the startup societies October 3rd, 2025. Are you going to be uh at in FII this year in Riyad? >> I will. >> Okay. Well, good. I’ll see you there next. If not, >> I’m actually giving a talk as well, so we’ll we’ll see each other there. Great. >> Awesome. All right, pal. Be well. >> Thanks, guys. All right. Thanks, everybody. >> Good stuff. >> Every week, my team and I study the top 10 technology meta trends that will transform industries over the decade ahead. I cover trends ranging from humanoid robotics, AGI, and quantum computing to transport, energy, longevity, and more. There’s no fluff, only the most important stuff that matters, that impacts our lives, our companies, and our careers. If you want me to share these meta trends with you, I write a newsletter twice a week, sending it out as a short two-minute

[01:50:00] read via email. And if you want to discover the most important metat trends 10 years before anyone else, this report’s for you. Readers include founders and CEOs from the world’s most disruptive companies and entrepreneurs building the world’s most disruptive tech. It’s not for you if you don’t want to be informed about what’s coming, why it matters, and how you can benefit from it. To subscribe for free, go to dmmandis.com/metrends to gain access to the trends 10 years before anyone else. All right, now back to this episode. [Music]