Open AI to buy AI device startup from Apple’s Johnny I for $6.5 billion. It’s funny in this entire AI battle, I’ve I’ve never been a Sam Alman fanboy until now. The first thing he does is he launches a product that competes directly with Perplexity tries to take over search and announces kind of declares war against Google in search. Next thing he does is he goes and gets Johnny IV and says, “Okay, now I’m going to now I’m going to start building devices.” V3 grand slam home run. The future of media is going to completely flip where it’s on demand. Like this is what I want to see created on the fly for me. Curious as to how people are going to use it at a personal level, but will I really use it to generate my own entertainment? Hollywood is decimated. I think continue to exist in 2 or 3 years from now. Now that’s a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen. Hey everybody, welcome to Moonshots. I’m here with my moonshot mates Dave Blondon and Salem Ismael. And this is an episode of WTF Just Happen in Tech. It’s been a
[00:01:01] big week, guys. A big week on announcements in particular with Google IO and uh our friends over at Anthropic. Dave, where are you today? Uh I’m in beautiful Wakefield, 10 miles north of MIT. Actually, this is a company I founded uh right after Data Sage. Manages $2 trillion of there there’s $50 trillion in the US stock market. two trillion of it trades and flows through this building. So, it seems sleepy, but there’s there’s a lot of digital movement through this building. You know, you threw out trillions like they’re nothing, but hey, it’s it’s good to know. Good to know someone does that. And Seem, I know that you’re in the bedroom about about three 5 mters that way. So, See and I are actually up in Tibberon. We were at an event last night that a friend of ours threw. Uh, everybody’s asleep cuz they got in at 2:00 in the morning. We’re in this building on the water here. It’s gorgeous. It was a uh conversation on quantum and consciousness. It was pretty amazing. Um but we got up at the crack
[00:02:02] of dawn to do this podcast because this is an incredible week. So, uh a lot you doing okay? You you awake? I’m I’m awake and I think it’s an incredibly one of the busiest weeks we’ve ever had in terms of tech stuff. So, Oh, it it it is. All right. Let’s let’s dive in. Let’s talk about AI of it all. Um, that’s the the winner this week in terms of tech news and I think it’s going to be the winner every week going forward. Um, so, uh, Dave, would you clue us in on this news? Open AI to buy AI device startup from Apple’s Johnny I for $6.5 billion. Um, that made headlines. You know, I it’s funny in this entire AI battle, I’ve I’ve never been a Sam Alman fanboy until now. Um, this is the move of all moves. And I I know Sam was talking about this uh yeah, huge huge coup and a very aggressive move. And it was really probably in Sam’s mind the whole time. He was just waiting for the
[00:03:00] for the $300 billion valuation so he could afford it. But he was talking about this uh what a year ago. Um and at the time he backed off, didn’t want to kind of wake up the competition and he said, you know, the iPhone is probably the most perfect device ever made it made by mankind. and uh so trying to compete directly with the iPhone and the Android phone is kind of crazy. So he was backing off while he was still planning and now now this is the move. So the fundamental thought here is that AI is such a gamecher all the big tech companies need to have a direct to consumer device or interface. So, you know, metabize WhatsApp, um, metabize Instagram. You just got to control the the consumer front end. Google builds Chrome, Google launches Android. Android doesn’t even make money. Why why does Google need Android? But we need to control the data and the the front interface that the consumer uses every day. And, uh, of all the big AI companies, uh, Sam is the guy
[00:04:01] who most intuitively seems to get that. And and so you know the first thing he does is he launches a product that competes directly with perplexity tries to take over search and announces kind of declares war against Google in search. Next thing he does is he goes and gets Johnny IV and says okay now I’m going to now I’m going to start building devices that the consumer interacts with directly. So you know a lot of the other foundation model companies are just trying to build foundation models and let the economy bubble around them. spam is actually trying to control the high low and and get the front of the consumer and the entire uh AI backbone. But I think the big insight here is that you can build a consumer device that’s AI first, which means you’re always talking to it. You’re interacting with it like a person and that’s disruptive enough that a lot of the iPhone magic isn’t really relevant. And so we can potentially leaprog and bypass that. then, you know, to spend $6.5 billion on a no revenue idea, but you’re getting the guy and the team, and that’s very
[00:05:01] Steve Jobs like we can we can riff on that, but I think it’s just brilliant. Yeah. So, the question ultimately is, what’s the next level device going to be? Is it going to be glasses? Is it going to be a device that’s just listening all the time? And there are a few different companies coming out with this. Um, Salem, you were going to say, yeah, I mean, this I think gets us straight to that Jarvis thing of an agent from your perspective, always looking at the world and listening and making sense of the world. So, I think this is a huge step. Uh, as you said, Dave, very very ballsy and I love it. Mhm. Yeah. Actually, very similar, uh, Google, you know, they they spent $3 billion on character AI specifically to get Noom Shazir back. So, it’s another case where you’re willing to write a a a ninef figure check for a fundamentally a single human being, but you know that person’s going to bring a team with them and they’re going to bring that kind of Steve Jobs magic with them. But these price tags are completely unprecedented,
[00:06:00] but then the upside on a win is also orders of magnitude bigger than ever before. So, it’s actually very rational. Yeah. Well, uh can’t wait to see what comes up next. you know, one of the questions, of course, we’re going to have probably a whole slew of AI devices listening to your conversations all the time. Um, and I think it’s going to get socially accepted eventually, but in the beginning, uh, you know, as you step into and you’re having a conversation with your friend and you notice that they’re wearing a pendant or something on their head or something on their wrist that’s listening and the question becomes, are you okay with every conversation you’re having uh, being recorded? Because that’s where we’re heading. That’s where we’re heading. You know, I think this is actually uh that podcast we had just a couple days ago with Anishh is directly related to this too. Anish was pointing out that there are huge swaths of demographics, you know, including older people, including um just just huge swats of different countries that have completely missed the iPhone Android phone revolution and
[00:07:03] the AI interface, the voice interface that’s super empathetic opens it up. And so, you know, it’s not like you have to stop everyone from using their iPhones tomorrow. what you need to do is open up whole new territories of users that were largely overlooked before. So, I think this is likely to penetrate very quickly that way. Uh, and yeah, it’ll be like a lightweight, easy to use, probably dirt cheap device that you’re just talking to that has an agent as the the core doing everything you just ask it to do. Yeah, it’s the lurking that’s going to be interesting, right? Where uh, you know, you don’t know. Remember when Google came out with Google Glass and uh they were wearing them to bars and people said they gave the term Yeah. Getting getting beat up. Uh so it’s going to be it’s going to be fascinating. We’re we’re about to see social norms of interactions with human to human with AI there uh begin to get defined very quickly. Look, it it started already. You know, every time I
[00:08:01] have a Zoom meeting now with a few people, all their AI show up before they do. you have to go, wait, we’re trying to have a confidential meeting here, you know, and then we have to turn them all off and stuff. It’s kind of actually the shift is happening. You’re right. We could riff on that for a sec, but uh the regulatory there’s no regulation. Basically, the the regulators are completely asleep at the wheel, but uh if you look at TCPA and and you know, you can’t tap phone lines and there’s very good reasons for that. But all of that is now moving to digital where there are no laws whatsoever. But you notice when Zoom calls started having AI spies on them, they announced themselves. That’s all like now they just listen and they you don’t even know they’re there. And the same with consumer phone calls. Uh a lot of our companies uh have either sales or customer support over the phone is moving to AI voices at an incredible rate. It’s using every GPU on the planet, by the way. Um it works incredibly well. It’s far better than a human call operator, but most of them don’t tell you they’re AI and there’s no
[00:09:01] there’s no regulation that says you have to tell you. And and so a lot of the times I’m listening to the calls, the consumer, you know, about 10 20% of the time they’re aware they’re talking to AI. The rest of the time they’re not. But that’s amazing. I mean, that’s, you know, kudos to the designers there. I mean, that’s that’s extraordinary, and it’s just going to get better and better. Every week I study the 10 major tech meta trends that will transform industries over the decade ahead. I cover trends ranging from humanoid robots, AGI, quantum computing, transport, energy, longevity, and more. No fluff, only the important stuff that matters, that impacts our lives and our careers. If you want me to share these with you, I write a newsletter twice a week, sending it out as a short two-minute read via email. And if you want to discover the most important meta trends 10 years before anyone else, these reports are for you. Readers include founders and CEOs from the world’s most disruptive companies and entrepreneurs building the world’s most disruptive companies. It’s not for you
[00:10:01] if you don’t want to be informed of what’s coming, why it matters, and how you can benefit from it. To subscribe for free, go to dmandis.com/metrends. That’s damandis.com/metatrends to gain access to trends 10 plus years before anyone else. All right, let’s move on. We have a lot to talk about here. Uh so this the bottom line sort of Google stole the week uh at least for a little bit. Um Dave, do you want to just outline what we’re seeing here? This is a a slide titled Gemini leads across all models and we’re talking about Gemini versus uh GPT 3045 deepseek gro everything. Yeah, this is the Empire Strikes Back right here. So, um Open AI has stolen the audience, the user base and then AI primacy. XAI claimed it back in February very briefly. Uh then Google came roaring
[00:11:00] back or sorry OpenAI came roaring back with new models. Uh and then that woke up Google. Google’s coming in and this is the Empire Strikes Back. Okay, we have had this in the lab. We didn’t know exactly how to announce it or when to announce it. But now that the competitive pressure is on, we’re going completely to the wall here. Uh this is the best of everything we’ve got and we’re going to roll it all out this week and and here you go. And it is mind-blowing. So they’re claiming the number one spot in every single category. Um we’ll get to categories across. Yeah. Well, okay. So the the one that caught everyone’s imagination. Well, overall obviously um image generation. Uh uh hard prompts. Hard prompts is, you know, uh difficult questions. I guess that’s pretty obvious. Coding and math. They they claimed number one on that for all of a few hours. Uh math they still own. creative writing, same as people doing their English papers, um, long queries. So, so they’ve actually had dominance in super long context windows for quite a
[00:12:00] while. They just didn’t tell the world about it. And this is exactly Peter what you were saying a couple weeks ago. You know, big companies have a real struggle with innovators dilemma. And so, even though this has been in the lab, Demesis Sabus and the team have been working on it for a long time. They’ve had it, but they were so worried about how to roll it out and and whether there’d be consumer backlash and but now under competitive pressure, you know, it’s unleashed. I mean, this is this is Google over and over again. I mean, Google had Transformers first. It did all the fundamental work. It basically had the equivalent of GPT, uh, but decided not to do, you know, what everybody said, don’t do this. Don’t put AI out in the open web. Don’t make it accessible to everybody. don’t let it self referentially program itself. And of course once it was released into the ether Gemini or Google had to come back and demonstrate themselves. I listen I love Google as a company. I’m impressed by their uh by them and uh they’ve got an extraordinary uh base to build on.
[00:13:01] I’m sorry. S you were going to say no. You know, a few days ago, I generated an image of a Gutenberg printing press and I said, “Give me a photograph of it.” And I did that across several models, and the Gemini one was way better than all the others. It was incredible. And so, I think we’re going to find over time the the interest is still over with Open AI. There’s a lot of attention there, but I think over time the sheer quality will kind of come through. I think if you love a good drama, you know, the this is the space race times a thousand. Uh and and the players keep leaprogging each other. You’ll see later, you know, that Google’s kind of ace in the hole is that it has hardware control, hardware design control. So, you go from algorithm all the way down to chip design with the TPU V7s. Um, nobody else has that, but the other guys have other competitive weapons we can talk about later in the pod, too. So, so don’t expect that this is the end. In fact, I’ve seen game over said now about 20 times every time someone leaked with someone else. It’s definitely not game over. It’s game just beginning. So, if
[00:14:01] you like a good drama, this is just this the next act. And we’ll see that in a second. And and if any ever wondered, you know, is this field accelerating? It is massively accelerating. And it’s the competitive pressures between these companies. It’s no longer between countries. it’s between a set of individual companies that are just trying to outdo each other. Uh the challenge is that chat GPT i.e. open AI captured the mindset of the world as a first mover advantage. You know, you know, kids throughout, you know, elementary through high school and college, you know, the average mom and dad out there, they’re all using Chat GPT and it’s reflected in the revenues that that OpenAI have. Gemini really needs to catch up because uh I don’t care how good you are at if your product is not being used, you’re in you’re in trouble. This is this is an interesting thing to watch just because throughout history, even though we kind of talk about first mover advantage, it’s never
[00:15:01] been the first mover that made the big bucks, right? Google wasn’t the first search engine. Facebook wasn’t the first social network. Uh Open AI has le it remains to be seen. It might actually be a completely new competitor that completely changes the game for everybody. Oh, it will be. It will. It will be. I mean, there’s no question about it. Um, so let’s So, here this chart that we’re showing, if you’re watching this on YouTube, is Google as number one across the board, but then how many hours later, Dave, did we get this uh uh this chart? And Anthropic introduces Claude 4 uh 4.0. Yeah. So amazing little 24 hours there. Uh so Sundar gets on stage, talks about something we’ll look at in a minute, which you know you can use just basically all AI all the time and not use regular Google search. We’ll see it in a second. Um Google stock goes way down. Then they next day they come out with V3 with a whole bunch of just
[00:16:01] mind-blowing AI, you know, number one benchmark stock goes up 7%. You know, just in reaction to that. So everybody’s like, “What is going on here? There’s so much chaos.” Right in the middle of it, Claude 4 comes out. Uh so Dar Daario is like, “Yeah, look, Sundar just claimed number one in coding.” Not true. Well, it was through yesterday. Now it’s not true. Today we have Cloud 4. And here are the benchmarks. And these are accurate, by the way. You know, so that it really is the case that that Google was ahead in coding for about 24 hours. Um and now if you look at this chart, it’s a pretty significant gap. Actually, Cloud 4 has just launched to the top again. And those scores on the far left are incredibly meaningful to the people who understand what the implications are. You know, for like companies like Blitzy in our portfolio that do long form coding, 3 million lines of code in a single night. You know, Brian Elliot is all over YouTube talking about it. Um, it works fundamentally because of the benchmarks on the far left. The the AI can now actually build entire products, you know, while you’re sleeping and you come back and use it
[00:17:00] the next day and it’s it’s functional. And that that app that works when these benchmarks get around 80%. It doesn’t work when these benchmarks are around 50 60%. They’re just too many bugs in the code the next day. So even though it doesn’t look like much on this chart, it’s an incredible tipping point in terms of functionality when you get above that 80% level on Swebench. And now now we need to reinvent the benchmarks. By the way, this is SWEBench, which is the most fundamental benchmark on how good is the code written by AI. There’s a new one coming out coming out called sui rebench which is you just making it harder and upgrading it but we need new benchmarks now because the AI has basically broken the benchmarks you know when Ray talks about the singularity that point after which you can’t predict what’s coming next that’s what you’re seeing here right you’re seeing literally a uh you know drop the mic moment over and over again being leapfrogging everybody else and it’s it’s awe inspiring. All right. Uh here’s yet another part of the equation. We’ve talked about AI
[00:18:00] improving based upon a multitude of different factors, better hardware, uh more capital coming in. Uh and this one is really improvements in uh algorithms, algorithmic improvements. And the prediction here uh is we’re going to see, you know, a 10x to 100x improvement algorithms. Uh Salem or Dave, you want to not comment on this? This is something we’ve been tracking in say solar energy forever, right? Where the materials become cheaper where lithium-ion batteries have dropped 90% in their price performance over the last decade. The same thing and people forget about this. They kind of think look at electricity needs on the current models and then they project out and everybody goes, “Oh my god, oh my god.” Not realizing that that the models are becoming much more efficient very radically quickly. As a as a real world example, the amount of fuel in a plane needed to cross the Atlantic has dropped by 2/3 in the last few decades just because the engines are so much more efficient. We know what roots to fly on, where’s where’s the air, uh less
[00:19:01] resistant, etc., etc. So, I think we’re going to see the same thing happening in AI where the models are becoming very much more efficient and that’s going to change the game. Not enough to drive the upside, but definitely it’ll help hugely on the overall energy needs over time. Yeah, I I checked this post and researched it for accuracy. And two two things to riff on. One is Jeban’s paradox, which I we all love to talk about. Um actually our our good friend Eric Bolson is probably the top guy on the planet on on that topic and we should have him on as a guest to talk about this. But uh and then the other is this is way way way understated. So, so starting with the way understated, um, this this is worth reading, but it was built kind of by extrapolating bottom up, but I know the actual innovations under the covers that are driving this, and they’re much bigger than this, and they’re much faster. You know, software innovation that’s that’s done by AI can be deployed in real time. You’re not waiting for any hardware or any, you know, anything to to come online. You
[00:20:01] just deploy and go. Um, and so this will happen much much faster than what’s shown on this chart. uh now that the AI can improve itself and the other thing is uh you know it’s it’s extrapolating to about 100x anywhere from 30 to 240x but I I know that in the quantization of the neural nets alone there’s about a 20 to to 40x in that dimension then in the chain of reasoning just in that these are all multiplicative by the way so you have at least three dimensions that I know are 20 to 100 x’s that are multiplicative with each other and so it’s going to be more like a,000 to 10,000 X. Um, there’s a there’s a brilliant researcher at MIT, Shane Longpre, that I was talking to yesterday. Uh, he desperately want to build a company around him, but he has to finish his PhD first, and it’s frustrating as hell. He’s just got a few more months to go. Um but uh but he’s doing a lot of great work with you know right now when you use an AI to do something for you build a video or be an agent for you the parameters in there also speak Swahili and know about
[00:21:01] quantum you know quantum comput like all this other knowledge is actually being is using up the GPUs and it’s using up the compute even though it’s not relevant to that question and so you can actually take much smaller subsets of that great brain to give you just as good an answer and and that’s on the order of 100x factor by itself. So he’s wrapping up his research on that right now and then we’ll we’ll end up trying to productize it. So no doubt in my mind that this is way understated both in time and in impact. Uh so yeah, it’s pretty exciting. Bottom line, when Eric Schmidt says AI is massively underhyped, it’s the realization that we have all of these knobs we can turn and they’re going to, you know, give us improvements. each one of them 100x improvements times, you know, five or six different knobs. It’s Let’s talk about um Jeban’s paradox for just a second there, too. And because I think this, you know, no one had ever said Jevans paradox, I think, for 100 years until now it’s going to come up every
[00:22:00] week, so we might as well define it for us. All right. So, here’s the deal. In normal economics, Eric Bolson is the master of this. In normal economics, you have supply, demand, you know, ISLM. I don’t know if he ever took 1402 at MIT. It’s like, you know, so if you said, “Hey, uh, I found a way to grow bananas. You know, they they’re twice as cheap now. They cost half as much.” You know, people people don’t consume twice as many bananas cuz they’re half as expensive. They consume maybe 5% more bananas. That’s normal normal economics, right? Price comes down. Uh, then you know, you just you just that fraction of the economy is smaller because the price is lower. Oil being the classic example of this. Then you get into tech and something really weird happens where if I make a GPU 10 times faster for the same price, my video game got better. Do I use 10 times less video game? No. No. I use actually more video game than ever before because it’s more fun than it was before. So even though it got 10 times cheaper, my overall consumption of that
[00:23:00] actually in dollars went goes up, not down. And that’s completely paradox paradoxical for an economist. And so you’re seeing that uh most acutely in AI more than ever before. If it is more capable because you made the model in this case, you know, 30 to 240 times more efficient, uh doesn’t that bring the need for GPUs and data centers down? And it’s not. It’s going to go the other direction. The need for data centers, chips, and electricity actually goes up very very steeply. And so a lot of people are are mispredicting the investment in energy, in data center supply, in chips. You know, chips will be sold out for at least the next 5 years and maybe infinitely in the future. Uh for for exactly this reason cuz the capabilities like you one of those V3, we’ll look at some V3 videos in a minute and you’ll see immediately as soon as you do it, you want more. Every time the capability gets better, you want more. You realize it’s going to reinvent entire industries. I mean not
[00:24:00] just you’ll give you a new tool. It’s reinventing entire industries. Everyone as you know earlier this year I was on stage at the abundance summit with some incredible individuals. Kathy Wood, Mo Gdat, Venode Kosla, Brett Adcock and many other amazing tech CEOs. I’m always asked, “Hey Peter, where can I see the summit?” Well, I’m finally releasing all the talks. You can access my conversation with Kathy Wood and Mogadot for free at dmandis.com/summit. That’s the talk with Kathy Wood and Mogadot for free at diamandis.com/summit. Enjoy. I’ll ask my team to put the links in the show notes below. All right. Uh let’s dive into Google IO. So, what we’ve done here is we’ve grabbed a 10-minute video. It’s a recap put out by Google and uh it’s a Google IO recap in 10 minutes. We’re going to play this at a little bit of accelerated speed and I’m going to have my uh moonshot mates here sort of weigh in and
[00:25:00] comment as we go along. It’s very rich here. It’s important that people understand what Google just announced. Google remains the dominant player here. Uh and there’s a lot. Okay. So, we’ll go to uh to Sundar who opens it up and we’ll break every occasion for some some fun conversation. [Music] Hello everyone. Good morning. Welcome to Google IO. We want to get our best models into your hands and our products ASAP. I’m particularly excited about the rapid model progress and today Gemini 2.5 Pro sweeps the LM Marina leaderboard in all categories. It’s getting a lot of love across the top coding platforms thanks to all of you. Gemini 2.5 Pro is our most intelligent model ever. And now that it incorporates Learn LM, our family of models built with educational experts, 2.5 Pro is also the leading model for learning. Right. So, you know,
[00:26:01] one of the things we’ve talked about a lot is using this to re-educate the planet. Um, and I think that uh we’re going to see a massive disruption in education across every field. One of the challenges we’re going to have is whether the educational field is going to accept this. Um, I don’t know how you guys feel about this, but uh, you know, teachers unions are going to have to get on the game here. Uh, and we’re going to start to see, you know, do I put my kid in school because they’re using old style or do I use AI to educate my kids? Thoughts? Well, yeah. You know, one high level thought on that is Dennis Assabus is going to push this agenda. He’s taking the high ground. It’s really interesting to watch Google now decide, look, our Nobel Prize winning brilliant guy, we’re going to put him on stage and make him a center a centerpiece. And he, you know, he rises to the occasion incredibly well. But he can’t um he can’t compete with Sam Alman in the use cases that are
[00:27:01] going to propagate you know at light speed which is you know virtual friends um you know uh creating your own internal copyright violating versions of movies uh you know all that stuff he can’t touch that because he’s a Nobel Prize winner he’s going after uh saving hundreds of millions of lives with biotech innovations you know because he’s the alpha fold guy which everybody so he he has to take this incred incredible high mor moral high ground. So on stage he’s very focused on new models that work from fundamental physics principles up to teach the to have fundamental scientific innovations and to teach the world everything they need to go like it’s incredibly uh high ground important use cases that are going to take a long time to percolate out because of like you said teachers unions and regulation and and so forth while Sam on the other end of the world is just going to run away with with consumer you know whether it’s spyw wear or not We’re doing it. We’re moving out of town. And this is the quandry that that Google’s in. You know, Sundar
[00:28:01] doesn’t want to be that guy. Dennis doesn’t want to be that guy. This next woman that’ll talk doesn’t want to be that person. It’s just big company versus small company mentality everywhere. All right, let me jump back in and then See, I’ll come back to you next. I got 2.5 Pro to code me a simple web app. Someone comes to you with a brilliant idea. I’m going to add in a prompt that asks 2.5 Pro to update my code based on the image. And here’s what Gemini generates. Whoa. I was able to create this just based on a sketch. But what if it taught? That’s where Gemini’s native audio comes in. That’s a penglin. And its scales are made of keratin, just like your fingernails. Today, we’re making 2.5 Pro even better by introducing a new mode we’re calling Deep Think. Deepthink uses our latest cuttingedge research in thinking and reasoning including parallel techniques. We are in a new phase of the AI platform
[00:29:02] shift where decades of research are becoming reality for people all over the world. Introducing Google Beam, a new AI first video communications platform. Beam uses a new state-of-the-art video model to transform 2D video streams into a realistic 3D experience. So, let me pause at Google Beam here. Sele and Dave, we had a chance to see Google Beam at the Abundance Summit this year, and it’s not, you know, my tw 13-year-old boys were with me, and they said it was the coolest thing they saw at the uh at the TechHub, right? The ability to actually be there. Now, Cisco tried this years ago and it was expensive, multi-million dollar hardware. I don’t know if the price point has been announced yet on Google Beam, but it’s going to be sort of an appliance that’s in your home when you want to contact your mom. Yeah, for sure. It’ll be very cheap. And I think this this is a very big deal cuz
[00:30:01] you can think about the language potential that comes with it. All the other capabilities will come with it. I think it’ll up the game for companies like Zoom and force them into a new innovation cycle also. Fascinating. Yeah, we need to talk about price point for a second here, too, cuz a lot of this stuff is just mind-blowing and you need to experience it. And then Google says, “Well, to access anything I’m showing you here, you got to get a Google Ultra or Gemini Ultra account for 250 bucks a month.” That ballsy move on their part. Ballsy move. Ballsy. And you know, one of the things I love about this podcast is look, this is the the the actionable like we’re trying to improve people’s life choices and trajectories through life by giving them as much actionable information as possible. And a lot of people who listen to this podcast are going to say, I don’t 250 bucks a month. That’s like rent. So the good news is you can you can try it at half price for a couple months and then cancel your subscription if you want. So you but you definitely got to try it. I mean, you Google has trained
[00:31:00] us Google’s trained us to get everything for free, right? And just give up our our rights and such. I mean, Open AI has proven a $20 price point is acceptable to most individuals. I’ll give up a couple of lattes and have access to the world’s uh you know, intelligence. 250 bucks. Uh that’s I think I think it’ll be I think it’ll become mandatory for anybody in the professional modality. Mhm. because these tools will be so rich that and there’ll be enough there for them to do quite well out of it, I think. But well, six months ago, a lot of people were saying, “Look, foundation models are a race to the bottom. They’re a commodity. Uh, you know, the price points will come down. Uh, these $300 billion valuation for OpenAI is insane, you know, given that it’ll commoditize. Now, it’s got to be obvious to everyone that that all of that was wrong. Just absolutely could not have been more wrong. the the cap because you’re a foundation model company, the capabilities that you can invent and launch and the price point that they’ll
[00:32:00] command is is astronomical. And then right now any of our listeners are basically going through what’s inevitable. I can’t be competitive if I don’t have my hands on this. I need to try it. I’m going to drop behind society if I don’t get on top of this. Well, sorry. It’s going to cost you 250 bucks right away. And I noticed it, you know, it took my money instantly, but it took 24 hours for me to make my first my first V3 video. I was like, wow, this thing is over. I mean, I I’m interpreting that as it’s oversubscribed and overloaded. Um, so it’s like a race. One thing one thing, Dave, which is the capabilities that existed before, you know, when I say before last month, you know, last quarter will be available for for free, right? We’re going to still get a lot of fundamentals for free. But if you want the cutting edge, that price will be increasing over time. Um. Mhm. Let’s let’s jump back in here. Uh we are introducing this realtime speech translation directly in Google Meet.
[00:33:00] It’s nice to finally talk to you. So instant translation. We’ve been seeing this for a while now. Um I think it’s going to be fascinating to incorporate across all the video platforms. I mean, right now YouTube is translating our podcast in every language out there. That’s fantastic. Uh Zoom is going to have to catch up to Google Meet. Uh any comments on translation, Salem? I mean, I travel a lot and this will be so great to hold up my phone and do real live translation conversations in different countries. I’m super excited about this. There there’s such um enablement that comes from this. We’ve been kind of tickling at. been a available in kind of a clunky form for a long time. I think this sounds like it gets to a level of seamlessness from a user interface perspective that could change the game. So, Salem, this directly affects our side bet, which we need to finalize by the way. Peter needs to adjudicate, but
[00:34:01] this this side bet that we agreed to a few weeks ago where I I I see the forces of concentration of wealth uh into just a few hands are overwhelming and then the forces of democratization are moving much more slowly. And so and and you your side bet was no, this is going to benefit broad swats of humanity, you know, on a on a more and we haven’t we haven’t qu quantified that. So we we have to settle that, but I’m willing to put any amount of money you want behind it. But here um it changes the definition trillions before. So you can put down trillions and I’ll put down a few bucks. We’ll see how that goes. All right. Bitcoin. Interesting. You know, you listen as a parent and you’re listening to this. You know, in the past, you would say, “Oh, it’s really important for my kids to learn French or Greek or Turkish or Japanese, whatever your cultural roots are or whatever you think. You know, you need to learn Mandarin because China is rising the world.” Uh, and then you need to load coding, right? Coding was always like push your kids learn to code. So now we
[00:35:02] have this digital world allowing us to do coding through natural language, vibe coding. And why would I ever learn a language if I can just be translated instantly. So there’s an interesting uh uh social re-engineering going on here because of course when you learn to code, you learn how to think in a different way. And when you learn languages, you learn culture in a different way which is going to be obviated through here. So I’m fascinated by this. There’s there’s something that will I think will persist here. And the reason is that when you learn a new language, your brain rewires. It does in fundamentally different. It’s the same way so many creative people play music are into music is because their brain rewires fundamentally around that different paradigm. And you triangulate. Now you’ve got different brain neural circuits that you can bring to bear. Right? In India um the when they have kind of countrywide maths competitions it’s always won by a dang south Indian
[00:36:00] um the their ability to do mathematics is like 10x that everybody in the north of India and they’ve worked out that it has to do with the structure of the language the the rhythmic patterns on the structure make their minds naturally available for that. So I think the idea of learning piano or learning coding or learning uh certain deep skills or languages will persist just because it’ll create so much more creativity in people and more creativity will be the only thing that’s available for humanity going forward. Well, the reason I think this effects are a sideb is because there’s latent talent all over the world and it’s usually locked up behind language barriers and uh now that the translation is real time but it also keeps your voice ination. So your natural voice, you can actually make a real friend in a different country where you don’t have a common language. And I think that’s new in the world and we don’t know where it’s going to go exactly. But all of our successful startups are dominated by this theme of best friends grinding it
[00:37:00] out, working 24 by7. That’s brilliant, Dave. I mean our ability now to find I mean there’s so much talent in Pakistan in India in parts of Southeast Asia that are locked up and don’t have access to our capital markets you know you can imag Studios as part of link exponential ventures there on the campus of MIT or adjacent to it and we’re opening up abundant studios here in in LA. You can imagine tapping into that that deep bench and having natural conversations like we have with uh with our buddies down the street. So, can we just say that I won the bet right now? We can. I’m jumping I’m jumping back into Google IO. We got a lot to cover here. Our research prototype project mariner. It’s an agent that can interact with the web and get stuff done. We released it as an early research prototype in December and we’ve made a lot of progress since and we are starting to
[00:38:02] bring agentic capabilities to Chrome search and the Gemini app. Let me show you what we are excited about. We call it agent mode. Say you want to find an apartment for you and two roommates in Austin. You’ve each got a budget of $1,200 a month. You want a washerd dryer or at least a laundromat nearby. Using agent mode, the Gemini app goes to work behind the scenes. You might be familiar with our AI powered smart reply features. Now, imagine if those responses could sound like you. That’s the idea behind personalized smart replies. With your permission, Gemini models can use relevant context across your Google apps in a way that is private, transparent, and fully under your control. Let’s say my friend wrote to me looking for advice. He’s taking a road trip to Utah and he remembers I did this trip before. Gemini can do almost all the work for me. Looking up my notes
[00:39:02] and drive, scanning past emails for reservations. Gemini matches my typical greetings from past emails, captures my tone, style, and favorite bird choices, and then it automatically generates a reply. Wow. Just wow. Um I mean, so listen, agent mode there and Google’s ability to personalize in a very deep and meaningful fashion. Um I’m blown away. I mean, no, listen. The the result, the fact of the matter is their goal is to get everybody to switch over from iPhones to Android and from Outlook to to all of Google’s suite. Um, and it’s getting compelling. I mean, it’s going to be to a point where I want that and I’m willing, you know, this cost of switching platforms is huge. And if Google’s able to provide enough eye candy and enough cognitive candy uh to get me to switch, that’s a big deal.
[00:40:00] the the use case they demo is just so funny to me because uh you know Sundar’s like hey suppose I want to go to Utah and I want to rent a bike like come on man we you know we already did this week here at Vesmark is uh we took that same aa agent to agent and MCP capability and we moved it inside our firewall and it now opens inbound emails and outlook uh with trade requests then the the AI will will read the trade requests automatically trade the account you know we’re talking about trillions of dollars here, generate the trade file automatically and then route it out. And so, you know, we’re already using that exact capability in a much higher leverage um use case, but completely built the artificial uh operator. You know, the financial services industry spends about hundred billion dollars a year on back office operations related to these activities. And when we sample them, every single one of them is possible to do with AI. Now, if you’re willing to connect it to sensitive information, financial accounts, and you find a way to put it behind your your uh
[00:41:01] your firewall. And so, they just rolled that out here uh this week, and it’s it’s such a huge unlock. But, you know, when you get on the stage like this, you got to talk about something like, “Hey, I’m renting a bike.” And okay. Well, and why does Sundar sound like an AI? I mean, well, his name is Pitch Eye. It is Pitch AI. So that’s why they chose him, I think, to be CEO. Oh no, it’s terrible. Uh, but you know, Sundar is in the he’s in the mastrom, right? And he’s got Sergey and Larry looking over his shoulders. He’s got, you know, the innovators dilemma again. Their entire revenue base has been Google search. Uh, not entire revenue base, twothirds of their revenues. They’ve got YouTube, which is incredible. They’ve got Whimo. They’ve got a whole slew of other. But you know switching things over and we’ll see this in a minute. Uh switching this over away from search uh they have to do this in order to continue to survive and
[00:42:00] grow. Um any comment on uh on the agent uh agent element sem or the personalization does it feel weird does it feel weird to have the AI searching all your emails and uh and responding on your behalf? I mean, I I find that incredible. The responding on our behalf is a little creepy and a little unnerving, right? Because you don’t know what it’s going to say, etc., etc. I think it’s just one of these things. We’ll just get used to it and it’ll become routine fairly quickly. The initial uh emotional reaction will be there for people. Uh I think the potential is much much bigger here on the business side than on the personal side. the B2B implications of this type of stuff are off the hook for customer service responses and all sorts of things. So I think we’ll see a lot more agendic stuff in the enterprise level than at the personal level. Yeah. All right. Let me continue. Uh so much to talk about. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead.
[00:43:01] This is rich. We could spend days on this stuff, but I want if if you say no to hear it. On the consumer side, you know, everybody worries about privacy, but then they roll out functionality that you just absolutely have to have and and you have no choice. So, you always check the box. How many times a day do you push the accept button? You don’t even know what you just accepted. I mean, privacy is long since dead. I mean, come on. I mean, people cannot people want privacy, but your Alexa is listening, your Siri is listening, everything is listening all the time. Privacy is a great thing to desire and I don’t accept that it’s true. Well, this is why the the truly brilliant Demisabus types and Mark Pinkis our friend, they need to get involved in regulatory, which you know, probably the last thing they thought when they were born when they were, you know, a kid growing up is that they’d get involved in regulation. But at the rate these capabilities are coming out, if if people like that don’t get involved in regulation, and I I mentioned those guys in particular because they’re genuinely concerned and they really want a functional
[00:44:00] non-disystopian future and we have to use AI as a tool in creating the regulation on AI. There’s no other way it’s going to keep up. So it’s it’s heartwarming that people like Dennis are at the top of the stack because they’re just incredibly humanist, goodnatured people. So that’s that’s encouraging. But on the government side, on the government side, this is a this is a Rubicon we crossed a long time ago. Like in the US, there is no right to privacy anymore. It’s been totally dissolved, right? By technology. The best framing I’ve seen for this is consider you’re living in a global airport, right? Like in an airport, you know, you’re being surveiled and your rights can be taken away at any time. And essentially that’s essentially transmitting now down to every aspect of life in in every country. Yeah. So it’s so so convenient to give your AI access to your conversations and your emails. It’s going to make the world automagical for you that that turning that off will be
[00:45:00] like turning off half of your half of your cognitive capacity. Again, I think remember Peter like 10 years ago at Singularity, we played that video of Mark Zuckerberg was an onion clip of Mark Zuckerberg and they said, “Wow, that was the best CIA agent ever. He got the whole world to just tell us where they were. We don’t even need spies anymore because everybody just tells us where they are.” So Mark Zuckerberg, here’s an award for for greatest um CIA agent in history. Um, I think this is where we’ve been going down this road for a long time and there’s no I don’t think there’s any going back from it. Yeah. Well, I had meetings with two of the biggest insurance companies, top fortune50s, uh, earlier this week, and I said, “Look, you guys, how are you going to act on this? You need to act on it like tomorrow.” And and one of them wants to use AI to do their quarterly closing. So, you can’t talk about like it’s a public company, so there’s nothing more sensitive in the world than your your quarterly closing data. Um, and they said, ‘Well, we have two choices. Uh, Microsoft says, uh, just
[00:46:00] give it all to us. Trust us. We’ve already got all your emails, you know, in Outlook. So, so just throw it over to us and and trust us. And they’re like, that sounds kind of scary, but maybe. The other choice is to take Llama 4, distill it, and bring it in house inside their firewall. And that’s startup heaven right there. Uh, and very, very viable as a solution. They just need a vendor to come in and and wire it up for them. So I think a lot of a lot of the companies and countries that care about their future are going to take that latter path but the alternative is to concede every aspect of your life your data and everything to either open AAI Microsoft or Google or or XAI. Um it’s just not viable for sovereign states for a lot of uh you know fintexs to take that path. So it’s an interesting you know very very dynamic time. I am jumping back into the Google IO video here. All right, let’s do it. Gemini Flash is our most efficient workhorse model. The new Flash is better in nearly
[00:47:02] every dimension, improving across key benchmarks for reasoning, code, and long context. Flash will be generally available in early June with Pro soon after. Gemini diffusion is a state-of-the-art experimental text diffusion model that leverages this parallel generation to achieve extremely low latency. The version of Gemini diffusion we’re releasing today generates five times faster than our fastest model so far. This is our ultimate vision for the Gemini app to transform it into a universal AI assistant. In Project Astra, we’ve upgraded voice output to be more natural with native audio. We’ve improved memory and added computer control. A quick aside, you probably heard me speaking about fountain life before. And you’re probably wishing, Peter, would you please stop talking about fountain life? And the answer is no, I won’t. Because genuinely, we’re living through a healthc care crisis. You may not know this, but 70% of heart attacks have no precedent, no pain, no shortness of
[00:48:01] breath. And half of those people with a heart attack never wake up. You don’t feel cancer until stage three or stage four, until it’s too late. But we have all the technology required to detect and prevent these diseases early at scale. That’s why a group of us including Tony Robbins, Bill Cap, and Bob Heruri founded Fountain Life, a one-stop center to help people understand what’s going on inside their bodies before it’s too late and to gain access to the therapeutics to give them decades of extra health span. Learn more about what’s going on inside your body from Fountainife. Go to fountainlife.com/pater and tell them Peter sent you. Okay, back to the episode. We are going to show a video example of project Astra. I mean, listen, Jarvis is here. My ability to talk to Astra and ask it to do things for me, research things for me, show me where something is in the room, I mean, it’s insane. We’ll come back to this cuz the example video is so compelling. But
[00:49:01] uh I just you know I’ve been tracking the Jarvis if you would and it’s it’s finally it’s finally here and thank you to Google for providing it to more people than any other product in the world. In our biggest markets like the US and India AIO views are driving over 10% growth in the types of queries that show them. What’s particularly exciting is that this growth increases over time. We are introducing an all new AI mode. It’s a total reimagining of search. With more advanced reasoning, you can ask AI mode longer and more complex queries. We’re excited to start rolling out AI mode for everyone in the US starting today. Over time, we’ll graduate many of AI mode’s cutting edge features and capabilities directly into the core search experience. That starts today as we bring the same models that power AI mode to power AI overviews so you can bring your hardest questions right to
[00:50:01] the search box. Okay. Big move on Google’s part. Very bet the company move. Mhm. Uh it would be great to overlay the stock price with this exact timeline because this is exactly when the stock started plummeting and uh you know it clearly cannibalizes the core business. incredibly impressive that they’re willing to do that. Um, and then right after that they they rolled out they have to but but you know they got it all back and more the next day when they rolled out all the uh incredible AI capabilities. So, it’s actually paid off. You know, at the by the end of the week, it was it worked as a strategy. But, um, you know, everybody knows OpenAI is running away with the actual AI user base. Uh, and and Google is mile miles behind, but now they’re going to claim that, well, anyone doing a Google search that turns on this mode is an AI user. So, we’re actually ahead of Open AI. So, that’s pretty pretty smart and aggressive, too. It’s interesting. I have my family members and friends say,
[00:51:00] “Oh, yeah, I ask chat.” Right? they have a personal relationship with chat GPT. They’ve given it a name. Um AI mode and it needs to start to get you need to personalize these AIs if they become part of your everyday life. And so I guess I had a conversation with Gemini is where it’s going to go. Um Seline, what are you thinking about this? You know, I think uh kudos to them for doing this. It would be really easy to hunker behind the old old uh search box and just leave it the way it was while they experiment. But to make something this aggressive where it’s built right into the core product that they have is is incredibly courageous. Uh I agree they don’t have much of a choice but many other companies would not have done this. So let’s see where this goes. I think if you step away from this too, I mean the reason America works fundamentally is because startups innovate and push the agenda, but this this capability would have been buried inside Google for years, maybe forever
[00:52:00] without the competitive pressure. So, it’s a great little case study in like like what we need to preserve in the American economy is exactly this dynamic where the big guys only move if we keep funding the small guys and if the if the IPO economy and the venture economy ever fell apart this whole country would just grind to a halt and so this is a great case study in it. I love it. Well, well said. All right, let’s jump back in. Let me make a point related to that. If Google was a European company, this would never would have happened. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Uh, let me find where we were. It’s like having my very own sports analyst right in search. Search figured out that the best way to present this information is a graph and it created it. Complex analysis and data visualization is coming this summer for sports and financial questions. Using your camera, search can see what you see and give you helpful information as you go back and forth in real time. We’re
[00:53:00] bringing Project Mariner’s agentic capabilities into AI mode. Search can take work off my plate while still under my control. Search helps me skip a bunch of steps, linking me right to finish checking out. Tickets secured. With AI mode, we’re bringing a new level of intelligence to help you shop with Google. Search dynamically generates a browsable mosaic of images and some shoppable products personalized just for me. To create a tryon experience that works at scale, we need a deep understanding of the human body and how clothing looks on it. To do this, we built a custom image generation model specifically trained for fashion. All right, here we go. Apple I mean Google’s getting into Amazon’s business. uh you know, instant shopping. It’s gonna be an interesting o overlay there. Dave, this feels like they’re just throwing everything against the wall. I mean,
[00:54:01] just throw it all out there. I’ll tell you the dirty little secret behind this, though. You know, Google’s search volume went flat back in 2017. They stopped reporting it years ago because it’s flat, but the revenue just keeps going up and up and up and up. Um, and they say, “Well, well, look, we don’t show any more ads than we ever showed before.” But what they actually do is they took all the ads off the low value searches. So baseball scores being a great example and they amped up the ads like crazy on the topics that drive all the revenue. So that’s auto insurance, mortgage, jobs, travel, just one or two other categories drive all the revenue. So now as they roll this out, you know, notice the examples they give are uh baseball scores. There’s no revenue there anyway, so move that over to AI. And then the other one is shopping where they got crushed by Amazon. Something like 60 or 70% of all shoppable product search you go straight to Amazon. You don’t even start on Google. And so they they’re not winning that war anyway. So they’re basically going to claim AI supremacy and try and
[00:55:00] move only the categories that are low click-through rate revenue over. And they’re very good at optimizing that balance internally. So this is their way of trying not to cannibalize too much while claiming more users than OpenAI has. And you know there’s nothing I think they’re going to go after Amazon here on on purchases, right? I mean it’s like if I’m in uh if I’m in the AI mode with with Gemini and I’m talking about things and it pops up and says, “By the way, you can purchase it here.” seamless shopping in the middle of conversations or in the middle of doing research having to then having to shift over to Amazon. Um it’s going to it’s going to be a uh invasion in Amazon’s revenue engine. It’s a great point and actually in this all of this PR war that’s going like Claude coming out right on top of this event and you know everyone’s jumping on each other but Amazon is notably silent even though they do have a ton going on inside AWS and I know they’re working on it. Um, they have a
[00:56:01] plan for sure. They just don’t seem to be fighting the PR war. Yeah. And then Apple’s sort of just given up alto together. That That is so scary. I mean, it’s so weird. That is so weird. All right, let’s jump back in here. This is the future of Google search. A search that goes beyond information to intelligence. Our goal is to make Gemini the most personal, proactive, and powerful AI assistant. Gemini Live now includes camera and screen sharing. All of it is rolling out free of charge in the Gemini app on Android and iOS today. We’re bringing our latest and most capable image generation model into the Gemini app. It’s called Imagine 4. The images are richer with more nuanced colors and fine grain details. Today, I’m excited to announce our new state-of-the-art model, VO3. V3 comes with native audio
[00:57:00] generation. That means that V3 can generate sound effects, background sounds, and dialogue. They left behind a a ball today. It bounced higher than I can jump. What manner of magic is that? This ocean, it’s a force. A wild untamed might. All right. V3 grand slam home run. Oh my god. Extraordinary. Dave, you started playing with it when you got your $250 account. How easy was it? Yeah. Yeah. Oh my god. It’s Well, it’s trivial. You got to get the account and just play with it. It’s It’s instantly mind-blowing. The the integration of the audio, I think, really puts it over the top. Uh but it it’s immediately obvious to you that um the future of media is going to completely flip where it’s on demand. Like this is what I want to see created on the fly for me. And as soon as you know every time you do a V3 it’s clipped at 8 seconds and you immediately want a full feature length movie and you’re like well why why can I only get 8 seconds? And the answer is there
[00:58:00] aren’t enough GPUs on the planet. There’s enough compute on the planet to meet the demand of everybody who’s who wants this instantaneously. And that gives you a sense of where um you know how many data centers and chase lock miller carus are going to succeed because because just that use case alone will use up everything let alone customer service and codew writing and white like all of these things combined. But uh it’s amazing that Josh Woodward got this unit like this is the this is the keystone like this is it buddy Josh got it. Yeah Josh was on stage with us at the Abundance Summit this this year. He’s a great great presenter but it was it was awesome. See um what are your thoughts on V3? I I think it’ll be interesting as people I want curious as to how people are going to use it at a personal level. There’s obvious business uses etc. But will I really use it to generate my own entertainment? I’m not sure I would.
[00:59:00] you know, we we watch movies particularly because people have curated an experience for us, right? So, I think this will be great for the professional filmmakers and you it’ll be great for making pilots. All sorts of stuff will come through with this. I don’t think it’ll affect the end consumer that much. I don’t know about that. I mean, listen, Gemini, Gemini 3, Gemini 4, one of these will have looked at every me every movie I love. It’ll understand the context, the nuance of what I really enjoy. I mean, if it’s got a camera facing at me, it’ll understand when I’m smiling, when I’m frowning, when I’m making reactions to it, and it can generate a, you know, imagine you want the next season of a particular TV show, right? I I’d love to see the next season of the original Star Trek. Um, you’ll have that. That that’s a great uh great example, Peter, because uh yeah, every Netflix uh series, you know, From Earth to the Moon or
[01:00:00] whatever, you always want more when you get to the end, and they just physically can’t create more. Well, now they can. And whether it’s passive or active, you know, real time and created for you, or it’s just the producers can now create the episodes that much more quickly and cheaply, you’re never going to let like Harry Potter, you’re never going to let the audience just drop like, “Oh, this is the last book. this last movie disappear. That’s just crazy inefficient to just let the audience fall off a cliff. So now that’ll probably never happen again. You whether it’s just because production costs are much much lower or because people can create their own. Either way that trend will happen. But I’d love to bet with you on this one too, Seem. I think that you know the movie producers have always dwelled on this concept that people are fundamentally lazy. But I don’t think that’s true. I think that the medium, the passive medium, if you go into a dark theater on a sunny day in LA and you come out of that dark theater and it’s sun’s blaring, you feel like crap. You know, you love the movie, but you feel like like what where am I? The ability now to keep the dialogue going.
[01:01:01] You can move around and keep it going and you can guide it in the direction you want. That’s going to be so compelling for people. I don’t think the producers have mastered the new medium yet, but when they do, I think I just want to I just I just Googled this and it said says, “What’s the average shot time for a movie today?” So, a modern movie, the average shot length is between 2.5 to 6 seconds. In an action film, it’s 2 to 3 seconds per shot. In a drama art film, it’s 8 to 10 seconds per shot. So, you know, if there are any physical limitations here, again, just cobble these together. But I’m Hollywood is decimated. I mean, I’m sorry. You know, I drive by all the studios out in Hollywood when I’m when I’m in LA. And how do they continue to how do they continue to exist in two or three years from now? Yeah, you’re dead right on that, too, cuz uh cuz you know, look at Bollywood and how successful that’s been. And you know, why? Well, it’s because look, the movies
[01:02:01] are culturally aligned and and just it it just aligns with the audience. But well, why did all the movies pop up in LA in the first place? Well, it’s because we need to shoot the scenes outside in good weather. It’s way too expensive to move all the equipment inside every time it rains in New York. So, we we got to set up out here where we have good weather. But now, you know, this kind of content was weather independent and it’s global and it’s language independent. So, it’s just talent constrained. Uh so, yeah, you’re right. it it should be democratized and moved across the world very quickly now. All right. Uh let’s jump into the uh Google IO. We’ve got we’re 3/4 in, one quarter left to go. Our new synth ID detector can identify if an image, audio track, text, or video has synth ID in it. Based on our collaboration with the creative community, we’ve been building a new AI film making tool for creatives. We’re calling it Flow and it’s launching today. Let me show you how it works. These are my ingredients, the old man
[01:03:02] and his car. We make it easy to upload your own images into the tool. It lets you extend a clip, too. So, I can get the perfect ending that I’ve been working towards. But what about emerging form factors that could let you experience an AI assistant in new ways? That’s exactly why we’re building Android XR. Right now, you should be seeing exactly what I’m seeing through the lens of my Android XR glasses. Like my delicious coffee over here and that text from Shon that just came in. Let’s see what he said. All right, it’s definitely showtime. So, I’m going to launch Gemini and get us going. Gemini, what was the name of the coffee shop on the cup I had earlier? Hm. That might have been Bloomsgiving. Okay, Gemini, show me what it would take to walk here. It’ll take you about an hour. Okay, I can get some steps in and these
[01:04:00] heads up directions and a full 3D map should make it super easy. I’m excited to announce today that Gentle Monster and Warby Parker will be the first eyeear partners to build glasses with Android XR. All right. So, I would give anything to be at the next Apple board meeting because you’ve got you’ve got Sam Alman saying I’m getting Johnny I’m going to do devices and I’ve got Google saying iMovie get out of the way. We’ve got much better AI driven and and you know what’s ne like oh my god they they I mean and this is where you know Apple should pay the price. They haven’t done anything to even try. Crazy Salem. Uh, I mean, XR glasses, I we’re it’s about time that we’ve got some some good AR up and running and, uh, but it’s going to change our behavior, right? So, every day as I’m walking down the street, do I have education mode on? Do I have gameplay
[01:05:01] mode on? Do I have entertainment mode on? I mean, it’s going to become the major educational partner. Uh, if we let it, you know, WBY Parker coming in, maybe they’ll look good, maybe they’ll look fashionable, maybe you won’t look like a geek if you’re wearing them. I I I don’t think anything can help you not look like a geek when you’re wearing those glasses. But I was playing with the Meta the Meta glasses, Peter, that you handed out A360 last year. Um they were amazing. Uh they look like good sunglasses. They act like good sunglasses and they’ve got all this of this AI capability built into them and it was really quite fascinating to see. That was just like version one. The next level versions are going to be 100 times more capable with AR built into the middle of it. I think this is going to be quite a gamecher around this. I think it’ll be really amazing to see the use cases and the potential utility is off the hook. Every day I get the strangest compliment. Someone will stop me and say, “Peter, you have such nice skin. Honestly, I never thought I’d hear that
[01:06:01] from anyone.” And honestly, I can’t take the full credit. All I do is use something called One Skin OS1 twice a day, every day. The company is built by four brilliant PhD women who’ve identified a peptide that effectively reverses the age of your skin. I love it and again I use this twice a day every day. You can go to onskin.co and write peter at checkout for a discount on the same product I use. That’s oneskin.co and use the code peter@checkout. All right, back to the episode. All right, let’s hit a few. I’m going to exit out of the Google IO summary there. a lot of amazing stuff and kudos to Sundar and uh and Sergey Brin the whole team there for the work that they’ve done. They really uh came out on top this week and if you look at Poly Market uh you know who’s going to be leading AI by the end of May the Poly Market results show Google at 80% Anthropic at 19% XAI at 1%. Uh okay. Um
[01:07:00] seems rational and reasonable. And then uh let’s take a look at what Poly Market predicts by the end of the year 2025. Google is still on top at 38%. Open AAI is back at 26%. And XAI is at 23%. That makes sense, I think, for me. Uh Open AI is going to this is a battle between the two of them. And then of course you’ve got Elon coming out of right field. Uh, and you never bet against Elon is my my mantra here. Any comments on this, Dave? Uh, this is the most entertaining thing in the world to watch, but you said Google’s uh, you know, back on top, but look, they were number third, number three in March on this chart. So, so everyone had written them off. So, and you can actually put money on this if you want to make a living out of uh, of betting on on who’s leaprogging who, but it’s a at this stage, you know, despite this chart, it’s just a four-h horse allout race. Everyone going as fast as humanly possible. Um, so, you know, I don’t I don’t think the short-term trend which
[01:08:00] vaulted Google to the top, you know, is is that it’s going to it’s going to actually flip many more times over the next year among these four uh four players. But it’s there’s this level of intense energy we haven’t ever seen before. Uh, and it’s what’s accelerating our AI future. It’s also it’s the most important race in the history of human innovation. Uh the implications are so much bigger than you know the past races we’ve seen. So the amount of money, the amount of energy, the short timeline is it’s if you want to track one thing and enjoy it then in your lifetime this is it. I’m going to just uh hit on a couple of more VO slides. Uh um we saw this side here, but uh you made this one, Dave. Tell us about it. Oh, it’s my very first ever VO3, so I just wanted to memorialize it. Okay. And
[01:09:05] it was What was your What was your prompt? Uh it’s right there. Make me a video of data centers getting overrun by dinosaurs. I couldn’t believe how good it was. You know, no reprompting, no tuning. It’s just this is what it comes back with. But I had Chase Lock Miller and Cruso and Project Stargate in the back of my mind because um you know, Chase has become a celebrity overnight. You know, more power to him. He’s our fellow MIT alum. And uh Crusoe, you know, that’s the he’s the the company building Stargate in Abalene, Texas. So, I was watching the video of this this insanely large amount of construction, the electricity, the pipes, the power generation, and now the chips are going to start coming in. And uh that’s worth following just as a story line by itself. Chase is a great great guy. He’ll he’ll be another kind of Mark Zuckerberg character for a long time to come. I don’t know why I wanted dinosaurs to be overrunning it before it’s even done, but it it was just what was on my mind. All right, there’s one
[01:10:00] more VO3 I need to show. Uh, and I find it fascinating. All of us, you know, at evening TV, you see these pharmaceutical ads that are ridiculous. Uh, and they spend a lot of money on these ads. Well, this is an example of a pharmaceutical ad made for 500 bucks instead of $500,000. Uh, and just take a quick listen to this one. I tried everything for my depression. Nothing worked. Every day felt heavy. I felt trapped. Then I tried pepperin. Our prescription helps your body secrete a special pheromone that attracts puppies. So that movie, the commercial goes on and it’s hilarious. It’s like uh but I mean it’s like that for me would be the equivalent of an ad campaign for some something that makes your you know uh never mind. I’m not going to go there. All right. That looked jaw-droppingly real. It did.
[01:11:00] It did. All right. So, this is my f This is my favorite Google IO piece. Uh, and this is for me the materialization of Jarvis. I want to play this. Look at this. And then let’s talk about holy moments and how this is going to change our lives. Can you go on YouTube and find a video for how to fix that? Of course. I’m opening YouTube now. This looks like a good video. Place a rubber band over the head of the screw and press down firmly. Can you go through my emails with the bike shop and find which size hex nut I need? Sure. According to the email from Bicycle Habitat, you need a 3/8 inch hex nut for your sprocket. I’ve highlighted the correct bin for you. It seems like I need a spare tension screw. Can you call the nearest bike shop and see what they have in stock? Yep. Calling them now. I’ll get back to you with what they have in stock. I think my brake pads are wearing down. Can you check the manual again and see if it talks about them anywhere? According to the manual, if you look on page 24, do you want to get
[01:12:01] lunch? Yeah, give me 5 minutes. Can you finish what you were saying? As I was saying, if you look on page 24, section two, you’ll see how to replace the brake pads. Hey, uh, any updates on that call? Yep. I just got off of the bike shop. They confirm they have your tension screw in stock. Would you like me to place a pickup order? Could you show me some examples of dog baskets I can put on my bike? Sure, I can help you with that. Just give me a moment. Here are some options. I think Zuka would look really great in these. Jarvis baby is here. Some better, you know, I want to free myself from holding the phone. I want to have my eyewear and my audio pickups and have it see what I’m seeing. But holy moly. Yeah. Um, well, this is a good place for me to make a shout out to all our sovereign leader friends in the Middle East and elsewhere. What you just saw is not actually going to happen in your country. And the reason is because the
[01:13:02] compute, you don’t have access to the compute. You can do this for the next few months, but then all the other use cases that are bubbling up are going to overbid you for that data center space. And then your population is not going to be able to do what they just saw unless you have some kind of a national compute plan. And you know, like we said last time, uh about 180 out of 200 countries have no plan whatsoever. And you have to get on that right now if you want what you just saw to actually exist in your population. And they’re going to be screaming for it. Wow. It is it’s m it’s magical powers. It’s superpowers. Um that’s so true. We are so compute limited. It is the currency of the future. It’s oxygen for us. And it’s a basic human right. It’s going to be more important than other basic human rights within a year or two. And populations don’t recognize that today. But once they experience that and then they’re deprived of it, then they’ll all be all over their leaders. Wow. How
[01:14:00] quickly a miracle becomes something we expect uh and and and feel like we deserve. See, what did you think of that? The Jarvis moment. The video is amazing. Once you can get all the mil billions of little YouTube clips activated and useful in this kind of seamless way, holy moly, that’s uh pretty incredible. I want to touch back on what Dave said though. You know, it’s incredible what’s happening in this realm and then you look at country policy for most countries and they they’re like unbelievably backward. I was talking to the head of state of one of the a country that’s emerging that’s about to become a very big very wealthy country and their first uh idea was let’s build a call center you know like no like four generations let’s at least get into the 19th century forget the 20th century forget the 21st century and
[01:15:00] this is where I think uh uh smart people at government level are going to need to be there to really change the because almost every country in the world does policy defensively and reactively right only two places do it positively and forwardlooking which is Dubai and Singapore and honestly they don’t do it that well and so imagine you had a really forward-looking policy in any country you could really change the game so I think this one or two or three you’re going to start doing it and then we’re going to see this general transformation in in government but boy this is going to change the I think this will be the forcing function that drives that transformation. So that’s very exciting. I want to add, you know, listen, when I think of this as Jarvis, the counterveailing partner to Jarvis is Tony Stark, right? Tony Stark is this radical billionaire who has access this incredible AI capability. But guess what? This capability is now available to everybody. We’re demonetizing and democratizing our vision of this future.
[01:16:02] And that’s extraordinary. and and you know that’s going to weigh in on you winning the bet here Selene versus I was just I was just about to say I think we’re beginning well we have to finalize the end of this episode I think we I think I think we’re done I don’t want to give away too much of uh All right let’s finalize the bet first and then I’ll tell you why I’m going to all right but I do actually Peter I want to I want to tell you we’re in we’re in a you know between Sema New York me at MIT and UNLA um we we’re booting up a new company right now that takes advantage of, you know, you saw that synthetic ad is just as good as a real ad now. But we ran some tests over at Everquote using celebrity ads and they work incredibly well. One of the problems he run into with like LeBron James is that his peak click-through rate or his peak impression value is right during the playoffs when he can’t go to a studio and shoot a video. And so we tested two things. You know, if you make a synthetic LeBron James uh at peak season, what’s the click-through rate? It’s incredible. And then also if you
[01:17:01] make thousands of variants of the ad where LeBron is doing different things, maybe different languages, just different messages, that also incredibly drives up the value of the ad. So what we’re working on right now is a company that makes uh basically the celebrity just needs to check a box and collect money. Uh and they don’t have to show up and shoot anything. Everything else is done by AI. Super. And that’ll also get a lot of your LA superstar, you movie star friends who you see all the time, they never show up at MIT. only will I am and u well they don’t show up for anything half the time it’s it’s always show up their own movie openings um yeah you you’d be amazed if you get like Will I am or or you know anyone to show up on IT’s campus the students come out by the hundreds they just way overreact to a celebrity so I’m really excited about this this project dragging just a handful over to the campus I I love it um here’s a quick uh fun tweet from Dar Ario saying 2026 we’ll see the first $1
[01:18:00] billion company with one human employee. We’ve been predicting this for a while. I get it and I agree. Um I don’t know if you guys two years ago you and I were launching the Exo 2.0 book and we said it would take three employees uh and AI to deliver. So that’s now shrunk to one. It’ll soon shrink to zero by the way. With agents with agents and crypto. Yeah. Yeah. Well, who gets the money? That’s interesting. the agent. The agent, this is the whole DAO kind of paradigm coming to life. Yeah. The the Yeah. distributed autonomous organization. For me, probably one of the most exciting things that’s coming is how these models are going to help us drive breakthroughs in math, physics, chemistry. Uh so this is from I believe anthropic. This is the prediction on when disciplines will be solved. So pure mathematics being solved by 2028. This means all of the unsolved math
[01:19:00] challenges out there getting solved by AI. Let’s move down. Computational chemistry by March of 29. Uh medicinal chemistry leading to candidate molecules by October 2029. Material science is being solved by 2030. This means you’re able to say I need a material that has these thermal properties uh you know these uh you know you cost properties that’s insane cell biology core pathways by May uh 2030 and climate earth modeling systems by 2033. This is the nonlinear inflection that just just explodes all of our expectations about the future. Look, look at that little note where it says most diseasable curable uh by in two and a half years, right? That vertical line. That’s crazy. Well, this is this is what we saw uh Demesis Abvis state. They’re going to have all diseases uh you know cured within the next decade. I I’d like to
[01:20:00] see in say pure mathematics or computation. I’d like to see which breakthroughs they expect to achieve cuz I’ like to say the discipline is solved quote unquote, but I’d like to see what what specific milestones they’re expecting to hit there. So anyway, we can worry about that some other time, but this is amazing overall. Yeah, this is where we desperately need Richard Socher as a guest cuz uh you know, he’s mapped out the timelines. It’ be great to get his opinion on whether these timelines are accurate or not because because they’re mostly gated by uh simulation modeling and synthetic data. Um and that varies by different discipline. But we we’ve known that quantum computing is really really important for uh for material science and for uh chemical uh reaction simulation which is the full cell simulator. So the timeline and the and the technology is probably somewhat predictable now. Yeah, this is why I love getting getting on this podcast with with both of you guys to really, you know, consider what’s just happened this past week and and you really do
[01:21:00] help me contextualize it. And and for everybody listening here, I hope you’re enjoying this cuz Dave and See and I are pouring our hearts into this. We’re making this our priority every week to really deliver to you what we’ve seen, what it means. So, please join us in in moonshots as we move this forward. And as we do every week, let’s talk a little bit about crypto and Bitcoin. Uh this was a big one. Bitcoin surpasses Amazon and Google’s market cap. Uh it’s been a big week for for Bitcoin as well. See, are you happy? I’m getting happier by the day as as this thing goes. It’s for me the for me this is the definition of democratization because every single individual in the world can own bitcoin and it’s very very hard to own say gold right and and so this is I think a huge trend in the right direction and we could have a whole dedicated episode just on the impact of this on fiat currencies that might be with Jeff Booth
[01:22:00] as a guest and just talk through what are the implications for how we’ve been doing things for 50 years with uh with fiat currencies having enormous stress. We saw this week the the the struggle in the Congress to pass a bill that’s just going to blow the debt open. And so there’s big implications for all this. Yeah, we’ll see Bitcoin surpass uh Microsoft as well. It’s got a while to go for beating out gold, but it will get there as well. And of course uh this week we saw a surge. Bitcoin surpassing $110,000, setting all newtime highs. Um, just an extraordinary time to be alive, as we say every single time. You know, we talk about the value of markets. $50 billion of Bitcoin gets traded every day. That’s the staggering number. I mean, it’s incredible. Yeah, I know one first I know one person is very happy and that’s uh Mike Sailor. You know, I haven’t seen I haven’t seen Micro Strategy stock uh continuing to peak at
[01:23:02] the same time that Bitcoin’s been going up. That’s interesting if it’s dislocated from from Bitcoin in some fashion, but that’s a different conversation. Thank you everybody for joining us. Please subscribe. Uh this is our our desire to deliver to you the news that is transforming how we how we govern our nations, how we run our companies, our industries, even educate our kids and our families. Uh always uh grateful and appreciative to my moonshot mates here, Salem Ismael uh who’s that way about about 5 mters and and Dave Blondon the other side of the US in Boston. All right, guys. Can’t wait to see what what miracles are going to happen next week. So before we sign off, Peter, I just want to throw out a thank you for uh inventing this podcast. It’s getting far far more views than I ever would have guessed. And for me, it’s been life-changing in that this is so much more efficient a way to reach out to people than one-on-one meetings, getting on stage, you know, which I do a lot of anyway, but but this has just been life-changing for me and just want
[01:24:01] to thank you for inventing it and also for inviting me to join you in it. Oh, you it’s part of the family here. I love love your insights, brother. All right. It’s so fun. I mean, you couple of things, but the the tech insights coming from you, Dave, were off the hook. So, so really great. Well, thanks, Lyn. All right. Have an awesome day. Can’t wait to see what unfolds next week. If you could have had a 10-year head start on the dot boom back in the 2000s, would you have taken it? Every week, I track the major tech meta trends. These are massive game-changing shifts that will play out over the decade ahead. From humanoid robotics to AGI, quantum computing, energy breakthroughs and longevity, I cut through the noise and deliver only what matters to our lives and our careers. I send out a Metatron newsletter twice a week as a quick two-minute readover email. It’s entirely free. These insights are read by founders, CEOs, and investors behind some of the world’s most disruptive
[01:25:01] companies. Why? Because acting early is everything. This is for you if you want to see the future before it arrives and profit from it. Sign up at dmmus.com/metats and be ahead of the next tech bubble. That’s dmmagnus.com/metatrends. [Music]