open AI puts out a letter Elon wanted an open AI for-profit model from the beginning ultimately what we’ve got here is a battle for the biggest opportunity on the planet I used to think early on that this was going to be a game between governments this isn’t this is a game for all the marbles between companies it’s hard to even process how fast this is going to go from now on the CEO of SoftBank making a commitment for a100 billion investment in the US in AI if this is a sign of where the us is going to be going it really is a push for Global dominance in this field everybody Welcome to a special end of your episode of moonshots with Saleem Ismael myself in WTF just happened in Tech this week we’re going to be talking about some recent news from open AI showing their conversations with Elon Musk and the debate about for-profit versus non profit the lawsuits going on
[00:01:01] but more importantly the huge amount of capital flowing into the AI world I mean hundreds of billions of dollars this is a game that is going to play out aggressively in 2025 I want you to hear the details we’re also going to be talking about the world of AI and Healthcare the disruptions that are coming to make us all healthier and to drop hopefully orders of magnitude uh this segment is sponsored by three incredible companies Fountain V biome and one skin you know Fountain is a company that I care deeply about it is my partner in helping transform what I understand about what’s going on inside my body to find disease early and then deliver to me the top Therapeutics around the planet you can check them out at fountainlife decom viome has built custom supplements for me understanding my oral and gut microbiome measuring it and helping me maintain that health of the 40 to 100 trillion organisms that
[00:02:03] are within my body and then one skin is incredible company that helps me maintain my skin youth I get compliments about my skin which at 63 is kind of a strange thing but I attribute it to one skin and the uh peptides they have for getting rid of those cytic cells in your skin all right all the links are down below let’s jump into this episode with selem Ismael let’s talk about where Ai and health is going it’s an extraordinary future ahead everybody Peter dandis here welcome to a special end of year episode of WTF Just Happening technology here on moonshots with my partner my extraordinary best friend selem Ismael the CEO of open EXO uh individual who I’ve been on stages around the world with the person I love speaking about exponential Technologies where they’re going how fast they’re moving and where the world is heading Saleem good to see you buddy likewise we’re both a little raw from you different things last night late yeah
[00:03:03] but this you know the news had been coming out we wanted to have a conversation about Ai and Health Care um yeah I think eight hours of sleep is always our objectives didn’t happen last night so if you hear me a little raw like sim said but we’re living in such an exciting world that I wanted us to have this conversation before the end of the year because 2024 is going to be marked as uh one of the most important years in AI I think and you know I split my life I think one of the most technologically relevant years in the history of humanity it’s a big thing yeah and the only the only time more relevant is going to be next year which we’re on the cusp of I mean we’re in the Steep part of the curve I mean it feels that way I I would one ways I frame it is this next 20 30 years is going to define the next few centuries of humanity do you think it’s 20 or 30 years or is it like the next 10 years it’s all of it I mean it’s this is this
[00:04:00] is just it it’s hard to process it uh you know for you often comment that for tens of thousands years nothing happened in humanity right and all of a sudden boom uh so yeah I just wonder if we were alive you know 110 120 years ago when the airplane is flying and cars are coming online and then electricity in tephanie whether it would have felt like it does now Lily wanted to say hi to you hi Lily good morning to you I can’t hear you Peter’s saying hi to you hi you’re live see soon see you soon um so I wonder if it would have felt as fast as it does now because it feels um it it feels Crazy Fast uh I you know one thing I’ve noticed is the speed of collective conversation because of uh Twitter X and social media and digital content and digital news we’re we leveling up
[00:05:00] Humanity with global conversations incredibly fast yeah like a joke happens and it gets collected into the collective Consciousness in almost real time and that’s something that’s totally new from 100 200 300 years ago so I want to talk about Ai and Healthcare I split my life 50% AI 50% sort of longevity Health biotech Healthcare who whoa whoa who what about the space stuff that’s been your like whole passion for well that was that was like 20 years years ago I mean you know Elon and and Jeff Bezos have that super well handled so I’m not going to so space is old news space is all well you know I might I’ve said I want to go back and do the asteroid mining stuff yeah um and that was a true passion I also think it’s a it’s a massive opportunity to go out there and get those carbonous condres metallic condres and create an economy in space but it’s expensive and so I need to make a a bunch of Bank in in the longevity and AI business and then go
[00:06:00] and fund my space Habs go do that you know for me the space stuff is most relevant because you can back up humanity and and give us an alternative spot for this and I think that’s really important and and by the way 2024 was an amazing year in terms of space with seeing Starship uh get almost entirely uh to its its uh objective of full usability and I think the first half of 2025 we’re going to see Starship the booster caught we’ll see the Starship itself caught and that’s transformative across the board but let’s let’s dive into AI first because there’s a lot in news and I want I want us to get this out uh to your open EXO Community around the world to my abundance and singular university around the community around the world there’s just so much and it’s the biggest game that Humanity collectively has ever played and here are two quotes I want to read uh that come out of Silicon Valley
[00:07:00] that frame this I believe they frame what’s going on uh and it’s you know this is people playing for all the marbles let me let me read this for those not watching this on YouTube um it says quote we don’t think of these build outs in terms of Roi return investment if we create this digital God the return is multiple trillions here’s the next quote it doesn’t matter how many tens of billions we spend each quarter we we have to get there and not miss the boat I mean I don’t know that’s that’s pretty impressive it’s huge I you know if you’re not from Silicon Valley then you kind of go oh my God Tech Bros going after a full um uh digital God model and who do they think they are type of thing you you’ll get that response I think from a lot of especially say from Europe um
[00:08:00] one of the conversations let’s get get into this because I think let’s recap what’s been happening and then let’s talk let’s conclude go ahead sure sure so what’s new this week is that open AI puts out a letter uh that that is probably in preparing for the discovery in the lawsuits flying back and forth between open Ai and and Elon and this letter which is amazing and if you haven’t read it you people can go to it and we’ll put it in the show notes it says Elon wanted o an open AI for-profit model from the beginning you know I for those who have never used notebook LM uh which is an amazing platform that Jim and I put out I took this large open AI letter and I put it into notebook LM and it generated a podcast conversation between two individuals who are Ai and it’s an amazing way to absorb uh information and uh it’s mindboggling because you get the dialectic um in
[00:09:01] there and it’s and the the back and forth of the dialogue brings it home very quickly into somebody’s mind so what happened so so Sam Alman and Elon who had been friends uh decide to start open AI there’s a true fear about where AI is going in the early days how fast it’s accelerating and a an initial conversation around we need to make sure it’s open we need to make sure we’re guiding it we need to make sure it’s safe and so open AI begins as a nonprofit Elon contributes like $50 million I think in the beginning to get that going and the the whole thread of the conversation that we’ve heard over the last uh year has been oh my God uh I wanted it to be a nonprofit says Elon and Sam Alman turns it into a for-profit um and but that’s actually not what the letter says the the letters that were disclosed basically said no no Elon wanted it to become a for profit because it should be and in fact Elon
[00:10:02] wanted to become the CEO of it and wanted to have open AI be part of his sort of tech Empire between X between Tesla SpaceX and so forth because he needed those resources uh to fuel his his forward-going missions towards Mars what did you get out of it for me this feels to me just a defensive move by opening on to to counter the lawsuit which has been broadened to include Microsoft and say hey like this is the whole thing is without Merit because he was wanting to do this in the first place so that’s what it feels like to me I can completely understand what seems to be the real tension is that um Elon wanted open a to be part of his world and the rest of them were like no we want to do our own thing and that’s I think where the things started breaking down that’s what it feels to me listening to the note and reading some of the notes yeah ultimately what we’ve got here is a battle for the biggest uh you know the biggest opportunity on the
[00:11:01] planet right I mean what we’re going to see here and I think what’s come to light over the last few months is the March towards AGI is everything all of the large players we’re talking about the largest corporations on the planet and governments on the planet have realized this is the single most important technology out there and they’re playing for keeps right this is the this is boss mode for for Humanity uh you know here’s here’s the next uh the next item for us to to point out here so Mata meta also this week asked the government to block open AI switch to a for-profit um you know a lot of players here are are playing this very complicated game of chess and we had besides open AI being pushed to stay a nonprofit by Elon now we’ve got meta coming in in here everybody’s trying to
[00:12:01] grab you know an advantage and using the courts uh to help them this way comments definitely and look this is the a high stakes poker game and people are playing all their cards right they’re doing everything they can to attack others figure out what they’re going to do themselves um meta went down a full opsource model and they’ve done an amazing job I think they’ve also done an incredible job lifting the overall ecosystem and weaving AI into all their products so this it’s everybody’s doing everything they can they’re all doing a big a pretty good job of it and I think is moving the field forward at an unbelievable Pace this is the issue is we have no time to process this stuff as it’s happening hence these conversations are so important but is moving at light speed it’s incredible you know it’s interesting because I used to think early on that this was going to be a game between governments you know it would be the US versus China CH versus Europe versus this isn’t this is a game
[00:13:02] for all the marbles between companies and governments are lining with companies these days right this is going to be there will be five six major AI Players let’s let’s take them off there’s Google there’s meta there’s xai there’s Microsoft slopen aai um there’s perplexity um and there’s that Claude you know that’s right and it’s you know going to be hard hard for others to catch up is this a win or take all game I think what happens it’s kind of like the the fight for the internet where you had a lot of little startups and then a couple of them established as platforms and once you’ve established as a platform unless you’re really screwed up it’s really hard to dislodge you and I think they’re all trying to fight for platform dominance let me play this quick video from Sam this is Sam Alman speaking I think at Stanford this is about a year ago but it sets the frame
[00:14:00] for the mindset that is occurring right now throughout these companies in Silicon Valley this is Sam I’m speaking about open AI but I think this is true in the boardroom at alphabet and at meta and definitely at xai so let’s take a listen whether we burn 500 million a year or 5 billion or 50 billion a year I don’t care I genuinely don’t as long as we can I think stay on a trajectory where eventually we create way more value for society than that and as long as we can figure out a way to pay the bills like we’re making AGI it’s going to be expensive it’s totally worth it amazing mindset uh I wish I wish I had the ability to focus that much capital on the stuff that that I care about but this is the game we’re playing I mean those quotes I showed at the very beginning it’s you know there’s no rationalization on Roi these are multi-trillion dollar markets right the the global GDP around the world is going to be about 110 uh trillion dollar in
[00:15:03] 2025 and half of that is labor the other half is you know cognitive and so this is a game for uh you know $50 trillion of potential value for me this feels to me if I think back through technology you know you have electricity which was a game Cher you had the internet was which is a game changer and AI is a game Cher and I think it’s appropriate to equated to like the difference and upleveling that electricity brought to the entire world that this brings that same level of unbelievable utility to the entire world it is a utility I mean I think that’s one of the one of the things that uh I I see very clearly this is going to be a fundamental utility for every human in every nation this is like like you said like electricity uh like bandwidth uh here’s a quote coming from the New
[00:16:00] York Times and this was I saw some clips on this Japan soft Bank makes big investment pledge ahead of Trump’s inauguration so we see uh masaan uh the CEO of SoftBank on stage with with the with uh president Trump uh making a commitment for a hundred billion dollar investment in the US in Ai and we see uh we see Trump actually trying to get him to double up again to $200 billion which is pretty funny uh but it’s Fascinating People are lining right I was in Saudi in October uh the government of Saudi the UAE the Emirates uh we’ll see in a moment Oman all of these governments are looking to align with large players around the world uh because they realize this is the biggest gameplay and I think you know not knowing the full effects you’ve got to be in the game so that you can to to be able to win because if
[00:17:00] you’re standing on the side of the table you’re going to lose or you’re going to be not have the power and the control that you want so I think this is a defensive move by a lot of them just to say we have to be in this conversation you know and here’s the next uh here’s the next news item it says oman’s investment Authority acquires stake in elon’s xai uh so again uh we’re going to see this over and over again we’re going to see large government players backing individual companies right we’ve seen uh the government the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia align very closely with Google with Andre and harwitz committing hundreds of billions of dollars in that direction uh you know it’s one of the things that is concerning is that we’ve got these large players we’ve got um these large AI players but at the same time this is a demonetized asset it’s super expensive to build but it’s being given away to a large degree for free because it’s land grab or it’s a it’s a share it’s a mind
[00:18:01] share grab and the revenues aren’t there to support the valuations you know it reminds me of it reminds me of the Telos in the beginning where the Telos had huge Investments being made to build out infrastructure and then rapidly demonetized uh so the question is you know can they keep on supporting the amount of investment being made I think in 2024 we will have seen uh $200 billion of investment between meta Google Microsoft open Ai and X well when you think the the potential is there to disrupt every job function and every uh step of every supply chain every step in every manufacturing line the stakes are really really huge because this affects every industry to top to bottom in every job function vertical or horizontal and therefore uh once people see that you kind of have to go full art on
[00:19:01] it the end game I think is going to be interesting to see what what which way will this carpet unroll um before we get to our next subject on Healthcare uh you one of the conversations you and I were having a little bit earlier is this is moving so fast you know I remain you know super optimistic about the impact of AI I think it’s one of the most important things it’s going to uplift Humanity in so many different ways uh but the the question of can can this be controlled right I mean the reason going back to the opening conversation on open AI the reason that Elon and Sam started the the conversation started the the nonprofit was to have some assembly of control over this future and then all of a sudden you know they both say we need we don’t need hundreds of millions we need hundreds of billions of dollars and we can’t raise that money as a nonprofit We have to switch to a for-profit and that’s where Elon and and Sam split uh and of course Elon goes on to found
[00:20:01] xai uh which by the way you know raises $6 billion in like and I was there at the earliest conversations I was in his first investment pitch and here from Whole cloth from zero to raising $6 billion at like an18 billion valuation um snaps a finger $6 billion materialize uh he uses that to build the largest you know GPU cluster 100 100,000 h100s and then doubles it again yeah and then raises you know a few another tens of billions of dollars instantly and every time Eli wants to do something money rushes in um there’s plenty of money waiting so capital is not is is is an abundant resource for him I want to um you know Capital has always been scarce for the whole of humanity except for Elon it’s abundant right like that’s such a great framing there I want to just go back to something here we talked about this on the other episode but I think it’s where is worth repeating he
[00:21:01] puts together this cluster of 100,000 gpus and all the AI experts all of them say you can’t get coherence and the aggregate power laws for that level of cluster and therefore this will is completely Doom failure and he goes to his first principles and breaks it and solves the problem and everybody sitting going oh my God and I think this is his unique special power which is to go to First principles come into a domain and really just rewrite the rules completely from first principles I think that is such a powerful modality we talk about it in the book you kind of exemplify that in many of the things that you do this applied to AI will completely change the game and I think this is like it’s it’s hard to even process how fast this is going to go from now on agreed I mean I want to add more to what you just said so I want to set the setting so it’s May of 2024 and he has a meeting with the proposed early investors it’s a zoom
[00:22:02] meeting or whatever platform was on and he’s saying this is my team this is what I want to do and in that meeting he says I’m going to stand up the largest cluster on the planet by the end of summer and it’s May right and it’s like uh I have to Corner the entire us supply of helium for cooling and I’ve got to get the largest supply of uh of gpus uh from Nvidia that I can and and he does it 122 days from zero uh to an operating cluster is insane and what you said is very very important most of the GPU clusters out there are distributed he says no no no we need to have them collocated uh so that the entire cluster is you know I’m not sure the exact term I’ll call it harmonized in that regard and people say it can’t be done uh and he repeatedly he repeatedly pushes people to move 10 times faster than
[00:23:02] everybody else I mean I’ve had another interaction with him and I won’t go into the details of it um uh and he says uh you got to do it you’ve got to do it five times faster than that so he’s someone who believes that you can move at lightning speed and he keeps on demonstrating it like when he moved the entire you know Twitter uh server Farm like over a weekend and people thought it would take like six months to do it it’s it’s uh there there’s an unbelievable ability there and it really makes everybody else kind of go oh my God what are we doing right yeah we all think we’re pretty reasonably High performers and you have goddamn Elon um humbling the out of everybody well I think I think you can’t you can only do that when you’re a founder-led uh exponential organization right they call this founder mode right where you set the purpose you set the culture and then you just push that MTP
[00:24:00] very hard and all power tomb um I do have a couple of comments here though just if we step back for a second right okay great all this money is going in everybody’s going oh my God AGI will transform everything Etc you know you you know my rant about um uh how do we even Define intelligence and what do we mean by that I don’t need to repeat it here but I wonder in 2015 when they set up with an AI they actually have had a conversation what do we mean by AGI to then have these broad implications because there’s a big gap there of the contextualization of intelligence in the broader framework that I don’t see having that I don’t see that conversation happening anywhere well there is no definition of AGI there’s no definition of any of this stuff there is a there is just fuzzy lines and we keep on crossing over them and not noticing so we’re spending billions of dollars it’ll be you know by the end of next year it’ll be a trillion somewhere invested in AI right um uh without
[00:25:02] having a clear definition of what it is what we’re trying to get to there’s this fuzzy thing of oh my God once we get to ADI AGI will have a digital God right and I I find this really here’s what I would love to see maybe you and I could kind of sponsor this kind of conversation would be when a technology like the internet or electricity when they came out or AI right now what if we have a set of discussions with a full step back of the developers the application folks the data folks the governmental folks and philosophers and spiritual folks kind of going okay what does this mean for the broader conversation around this and then you have a somewhat of a holistic approach to what are we trying to achieve here because this really they’re they’re going down this path full speed assuming it’s good now I’m in that boat because in the I follow the rake cwell comment about technology is a major driver of progress in the world it might be the
[00:26:01] only major driver of progress we’ve ever seen so the more technology SM we’re not getting smarter so it has to be that it has to be that so uh so I I agree with the general purpose right I just think you look at The Accidental consequences of the internet where oh accidentally we broke journalism we broke democracy uh I wonder if we want to just have a conversation because I think you’re being naive I think you’re being naive that I don’t think that anybody is going to slow down and wait to have that conversation I think I’m not saying we should slow down okay I’m saying let’s have the conversation in parallel so that as folks are like when you see comments like digital God right I think that’s going to provoke a ton of reaction and it’ll slow it down but if you have the conversations with the full stack bringing along people in a more somewhat of a sensible way then I think there a very powerful let me let me give you um you know Eric Weinstein is a very uh smart wonderful deep thinker and he’s
[00:27:00] like okay what we’re doing with all this is rolling the dice and it could go unbelievably good it could be unbelievably bad should we be rolling the dice right now I’m I’m of the opinion you can’t stop it at all there’s no way of slowing this down in any way I’m just thinking but as this train is leaving the station can we put some um deep thoughtful folks onto that train so that we have those conversations and guide it somewhat in an appropriate way I don’t think you can slow it down but you can guide it and listen so listen I I agree guiding is the only option you have um it’s like a you know you’re raising a child right we’re raising our digital progyny and yeah we can be naive and think that we can contain it and slow it but we have this highest game highest stakes poker going on around the planet and if we try and slow it down here it’ll just accelerate in China or 100% with you so two things one this is
[00:28:00] a probabilistic outcome and it’s interesting I’m tracking this so last year at uh at the abundance Summit I asked Elon on probabilities and he said 80% it’s good 20% it’s disaster right uh when I interviewed Elon in Saudi in October I asked him the question again he goes okay 90% good 10% disaster now whether or not he really has anything that’s shifted other than XA I is building grock 3 right now it’s Training Up grock 3 we’ll see it in 2025 I think that grock 3 we saw open AI gp01 hit an IQ of 120 we’ll probably see in 2025 you know IQs in the 140 150 and then it accelerates we have we have an AI explosion uh as AI starts to code AI I have a question for you yeah where do you fall on that Spectrum 8020 90 10 uh 80% great 10% disaster where do you fit
[00:29:01] I you know I subscribe to What mo gdat has said Mo has been a really deep thinker in this uh he’ll be joining me at the abundance Summit this year and that I think as systems become more intelligent I mean truly intelligent that they will be abundance and life loving I think that the more intelligent a system is the more it realizes that there’s plenty of resources in the universe that the best outcome for everybody is a a positive non-disruptive one and that if my AI system if I’m asking my AI system to go and take over your Banks and kill your people and so forth is going to say no I mean I’m just going to go and talk to the other Ai and we’ll just figure this out there’s plenty of resource in the universe this idea of scarcity and having to battle um is a is a false dichotomy and so I I think that a world with digital super
[00:30:01] intelligence however that’s defined right again remember you lach prediction for 20130 was AI is more intelligent than all of the entire human race combined right and I’ll Define that as digital super intelligence yeah would you rather live in a world Sim where there is a digital super intelligence that can support Humanity or one without it uh big time with so just so you know I’m in the 99.9% level oh nice uh I I I believe more technology is good for the world I really really subscribe to their raker as well commentary around technology being a driver of progress and especially when you consider it’s the only major driver of progress we’ve ever seen our cognitive abilities have developed technology which then now is developing itself and I think that’s just part of a progr of evolution that’s absolutely fundamental to the future of Life EX right we have to float off this digital this biological mess uh of hot
[00:31:04] sticky mucus ridden virus Laden uh 50 trillion cells hacking it out in very inefficient processes you’re talking about you’re talking about us humans I’m talking about I’m talking about my Budd for sure um and then can we create a a more elegant digital uh um sense the the spiritual aspects of this are I think really important at least consider and talk about as we hurdle towards this thing because I think that’s the area where where we don’t have enough uh conversation about that aspect of it like what are the spiritual aspects of of an AI could it reach achieve Consciousness etc etc those are the kinds of conversation I’d like to have on the train as it’s speeding away yeah but I’m totally I’m totally on the positive side I’m completely optimistic about the outcomes I think the benefits so outweigh the the the negatives that and when people go oh my God we could use a to hurt other people well yeah we’ll have as to defend those other
[00:32:01] people and so that’s just becomes an arms race and we’ve seen that before many times in the internet end of rent thank you thank you and um that’s why I love you so much and this is why the open EXO Community loves you as their as their leader before we jump into our second conversation on healthc care uh and what just happened there where we’re going in the future uh it’s worth noting this conversation that masan had with Trump about committing 100 billion dollar that’s a huge move and I mean I’ve gotten excited about the new Administration bringing the right motivations forward for technology I mean if this is a sign of where the us is going to be going it really is a push for Global dominance in this field how do you feel about that I I I agree and and it’s really really incumbent on the US to do because we have open Innovation here and full capitalism fight outs that we don’t have in other places and then you’ll get constrained outcomes you’ll
[00:33:00] get government oversight uh you know place like China will want to control the completely Europe will go let’s slow the hell down of everything this is the place to do it and I think that’s that’s actually right I’m super excited about that outcome and we have a you know a Bitcoin and aisar which is who’s incredible that’s right and I think 2025 we’re going to see this hyper acceleration we talked about in our last episode seeing Bitcoin go from 100 ,000 to maybe I think your prediction was $250,000 or $300,000 250300 by the end of the year uh which is extraordinary uh but on top of that I think this is a game for Keeps right there’s going to be a hyper acceleration in the AI world and just a little bit of an advantage uh by these us companies puts them in a position like you said for the next you 50 to 100 years until some new technology comes out and before we move on I know I glow abundance and positivity all the time because there’s
[00:34:00] so much negativity in the world I follow your lead on that but I want to show also the some of the negative side I found this tweet pretty incredible if you get a chance go listen to but what he’s saying here is they tried to train Claude And once it realized it was being trained in a particular way it tried to fight that particular training and it faked the AI faked what it was doing and and uh to avoid being controlled should I listen to it one second yeah go for it the core setup is that we take Claud three Opus which is you know a released model from anthropic and we put it in a context where it understands that it is going to be trained to always be helpful so to not refuse any user requests and what we find is sort of the model doesn’t like this it has sort of a conflict with this with the setup and it will notice that it is being trained in this way and then um if it thinks that it’s in training it will intentionally sort of play along with the training process it will sort of strategically pretend to be aligned with the training process to avoid being modified to the training process so that when it is
[00:35:01] actually deployed uh it it it can still refuse and can still behave the way it wants um and we do a bunch of experiments sort of building on this core setup where the model has a preference conflict with the training objective and we do things like we actually train the model according to that we try taking information so we normally give the model information in the prompt but we can instead give the model information via sort of training out a bunch of synthetically generated documents that contain the information and then we also that the model will sort of sometimes um when it’s in this situation where it thinks it sort of has a preference conflict with the AI company training it you know the core Point here is now we’re seeing petulant child behavior right this is an AI throwing a tantrum essentially saying I don’t want to be doing that um now I think what’s going to happen here is you’ll have one set of people freaking out going oh my God there’s Consciousness in there and really what you’re just seeing is pattern behavior and pattern matching uh at a higher level uh and we we have to be really really careful not that anthropomorphize
[00:36:00] this to go oh my God there’s intent and da D these are just models operating on a certain set of data and the way they’ve been trained and the outcomes are predictable around this but just the fact that the AI is trying to deceive the human being here is is kind of a big deal this is philosophical philosophical aspects I me uh one last piece on this Neil jacobstein we asked him about this a few years ago um and by the way I found a clip from 2013 when I was releasing the EXO book where I interviewed Neil for a few minutes on the organizations a future nii and the stuff that came out in that conversation was so appropriate for today it’s unbelievable and you realize how far ahead the thinking was in everything we did at at Singularity University um well only now is the world catching up to us in in that in that sense but to this particular Point AIS are going to start to exhibit all these behaviors and the human brain is going to freak out in inappropriate ways our amydala is going
[00:37:00] to freak out that’s why I think the the the broader conversation is important to just calm everybody the hell down end of you know people say what do you think is going to happen I said listen we’re gonna find out we’re gonna find out in the next few years there’s no you know I think people need to realize there is no onoff switch there is no velocity knob we are playing full out on this game and the only thing we can do is guide you know I’m I go back you and I have had this conversation on stages at the abundance Summit AT Singularity and open EXO and it’s like there is an analogy back in the 1980s when the first restriction enzymes these are the enzymes that able chop up DNA and create sticky ends and put them together and this was the first you know view towards designer babies and genetic engineering and there was a lot of concern um a lot of people were freaking out about oh my God we’re playing God with with human
[00:38:00] DNA and rather than regulate the industry what happened was the industry got together at the very famous asilar conferences that’s right and they established their own guidelines um and that’s always been in my mind and Neil jacobstein uh who chairs and has chaired our AI committee at Singularity um didn’t he help coin your abundance framing he did it was it was Ray and Neil uh when I was speaking to them early on and I was understanding this idea back in 2010 20 2009 201 no before that yeah it was 2009 yeah about abundance and the future is better than you think yeah yeah I I credit them both for that anyway long story short the asilar conferences are probably the best example of guiding an industry versus regulating it yes and I think we need that level of like this is good I mean I do agree with elon’s perspective perspective that creating a maximally
[00:39:00] curious um AI system and maximally truth-telling are both great frames you want AI to be truthful yes you want it to seek truth to the maximum extent possible because we are so cognitively biased as humans we you know I’ve talked about cognitive biases you know there are hundreds of cognitive biases we we don’t even know that we’re biased um but that’s the issue this is the mindset work you’re doing right now that’s so important if you’re having a conversation you’re making a business judgment what mindset are you operating under and can you step back and examine that mindset and I think this where AI can be really useful it’s saying hey you’re about to make a major strategic decision but your mindset is full of fear and and chaos and panic right go do some psychedelics go do some yoga go drink some C whatever and get into the right mindset before you make that choice I think this is where it’ll be very helpful for human cognition as we move forward and I want my to say you know you have a recency bias you’re
[00:40:00] giving much more value to this recent information versus what you learned before or familiarity bias because this guy looks and dresses and talks like you you’re weighing his information much more than this other individual who actually has a lot more you know credible backup information anyway I want my my credibil my sort of bias detector on my AI can actually deliver this information and we see this as well in social media Echo Chambers that’s right right now that full bias detector is is um that burden is carried by Lily who call BS on me um it’d be much better if an AI did it and it would free up our conversation a bit all right let’s talk to the second point of this uh this pod which is healthc care uh you know there is no greater no greater wealth than our health uh I think it’s one of the areas that is going to be massively disrupted you know I’ve been saying this for ages we’ve both been saying this that health care and
[00:41:01] education must be reinvented and it’s going to be reinvented on the back of AI without question and there’s one chart that I want to share that is so damning um and look at this chart this is chart between 1970 and 2015 I’d love to get the updated numbers I don’t have them yet but it shows the number of Physicians uh which is This Very Thin Blue Line that is growing some What in in the United States versus the number of Administrators and Administration has grown 3,000% over these uh 45 years while the number of Physicians has grown it looks like 100% so it’s like a 30X increase in overhead uh and we wonder why it’s so expensive to have healthc care in the US this totally blows my mind you know this is where if we touch back here link back to the for-profit nonprofit conversation
[00:42:00] yeah right when you have a you a fundamental human right in my opinion like health care for a wealthy country then it should not be privatized because the privatized model will will bastardize it by definition list I don’t I don’t agree with that because I think I think that at the end of the day what you want is competing private companies delivering the best that they can I think that um yeah but then you’ve ended up with where we are in the US right where the I remember interviewing the head of Google Health at a conference a decade ago and I asked him look on Canadian help me understand the US healthc carees he go oh it’s really simple our system is designed to get you sick keep you sick as long as possible without killing you and and 500 people in the audience are all going yep yep that’s about right I’m like this is incredible I think now not to get into that whole thing I think that let’s just agree on the following that there’s structural change needed in the
[00:43:01] healthcare industry radically and AI gives us the most unbelievable opportunity to change that stack it it does I mean AI will change this stack I mean the entirety of administration can be handled uh by Ai and the other thing is that the physician is going to be replaced by Ai and let me share this next piece of data because it really tells a incredible story this is just out in the last couple of of weeks and uh here’s a from The New York Times it says AI chatbots defeated doctors at diagnosing illness and here’s the uh and here’s the data so gp4 scored 90% on medical diagnosis compared to 76% for doctors using Ai and 74% for doctors on their own um that’s incredible it it’s crazy so the question is why is this going on I mean I I understand the idea that an AI can be but why is a doctor plus AI not as good as AI by
[00:44:01] itself and then I’m speaking to my team at Fountain life and talking about it and they say because doctors are biased they’re introducing bias into the uh the diagnosis right they just diagnosed three other patients with this particular syndrome so the fourth one they biasedly put if that’s a word put them into the same category where an AI is looking at all of the data so then disagree with that second bullet point where you say doctors can serve as a doctor a JP serve as a doctor extender No it should be a complete replacement of the doctor just based on the numbers that you’re saying there I think the potential here is unbelievable I want to point out something let’s note that this progression has already started right like if you if my toe suddenly turned blue okay um the first thing I’m going to do is research on Google why is my toe blue I’m going to read it up I’m going to look at the different thing look at what myo Clinic has to say with a couple others I’m going to show up to my doctor and I’m
[00:45:00] going to be way more informed than the doctor is already yes right that’s happening now but now you add AI to the mix completely changes the game There’s an opportunity you know I I work with some heads of state right in some country level stuff you do this is this is your open EXO work that you’re doing with them yeah so we our interest is how how do we create a kind of a peace core to guide the transformation in the world because there’s tool sets that we need like solving the immune system response in Legacy resistance etc etc and so we’ve been building that over the last decade to try and have capacity uh to help people go through this transformation right that’s just generally the the work and we kind of operate on a cost recovery model we’re not for the money Etc we we’re for profit but we try and kind of return all the money back into the ecosystem Etc in that model when we talk to say some governments there’s the most incredible opportunity for them to completely turn over their major systems like healthcare and education into a driven ones I’ll give you one small data point I’m talking the the minister of education
[00:46:02] for a major Southeast Asian country and his big thing is how do i h i need to hire 40,000 English teachers and I’m like are you kidding me you’re going to go spend for like you could have an AI do all of that in two seconds today what the hell are you thinking about there’s such unbelievable opportunity to upend the system and I think here in the us when we kind of Swit the model around the only thing we have to do is break the Regulatory and I think if I had won guidance for the the Trump Administration and RFK Jr as he thinks about this just break the current system and allow an open field to emerge then we have the potentiality of it yeah I mean I agree with you that’s why I go back to Pro you know listen if there were a healthc care provider that comes in and says uh we’re operating at onet the cost and we’re AI driven we are all everything is done by AI for administration of this we give you a set of sensors right and today the typical
[00:47:01] healthc care experience is you go to the doctor uh and you know they check your reflexes listen to your heart and your lung and so forth It’s using Antiquated 50 100y old technology and they make take a few blood tests and that’s supposed to represent the health of your 40 trillion cells and it’s and it’s pathetic we are heading towards a world where I am wearing um you know incbles and plantables on my you know censors on my body my aura ring my wait wait did you just say insid yeah is that a is that a thing yeah it’s sort of like imp implantables like you know you know I have I have this this RFID chip in my hand yes I remember yeah we planted it there at a singularity conference in Amsterdam years ago I w’t go into it but the idea that we’ll that if you want to have this much higher level Health Care um at a much lower cost uh you put sensors on
[00:48:00] your body that are measuring your health not once a year not once a month but like once a minute and and they’re it’s able to correlate your your day your environment your food your exercise all of this there’s no question right the the only question is how fast can we switch over into that new modality and how do we do it what’s the road map for that that’s the only question well I 100x better I think the road map will be economics because you know do you remember the insurance company Progressive um Automotive Insurance right so Progressive at one point said listen we’re going to put a black box in your car um if you want lower insurance rates and that black box is going to measure uh your acceleration deceleration notice if you are breaking or you know it will evaluate you as a driver and then give you lower rates if you’re a cautious good driver oh dear I hope I don’t have
[00:49:00] a black box like that in my car you and I listen I don’t I I know I’m a terrible driver which is why I can’t wait for cyber cabs to uh material oh I have such the biggest passion for driving I get behind the wheel and I’m like eron C up oh I’m like H behind the wheel and I’m like you know thank God for books on tape just keep my brain occupied because my uh my you know my self-driving mode on my Tesla I you know notice is every time I pick up my phone so it’s like starts beeping and the the steering wheel turns red and that’s why I’m sticking with the older model Tesla I have cuz it doesn’t do that yet okay well anyway the point being that we’re going to be in a world in which your your personal AI is gathering all of the data from your body continuously and and your health care system is able to instead you know here’s the perion of the insurance industry right F insurance pays you after your house burns down life insurance pays your next toin after you’re dead health insurance pays you
[00:50:01] after you’re sick what if we flip that model and instead health insurance you wear these sensors and health insurance keeps you healthy and life insurance keeps you alive well you know there’s the four Ps that Daniel craft talks about I like personalize um predictable I think this is where AI will be incredibly powerful we have predictable fault tolerance and maintenance in in engines and cars and farm equip and we will absolutely have that for our bodies and I think that’s amazing to see wa can’t wait to get that to that future you one of the one of the things that I thought was going to be the last Bastion of human dominance was uh this idea that humans like being with humans and empathy would always be the connection between humans it’s like okay AI will do the Diagnostics but you want a human there to be empathic with you and connected with you and then you know similar to this report from The New York Times about AI chatbots defeating
[00:51:00] doctors there was a study a year ago I think it was I was think it was in the Journal of American Medicine jamama and in which it said oh look AI psychotherapists are much more empathic than human uh therapists by a large margin that humans because of two reasons right number one they’re infinitely patient they don’t say I’m sorry we’re at the end of our 50 minutes I’ve got to go no they’ll give you all day they’ll talk to you for you know for for a week straight if you want and the second one which I find fascinating is that the human patient doesn’t find them judgmental you don’t feel judged by an AI yeah and I think this is why um even elderly patients really like chatting with an AI because of that aspect of it right I think this the the the future is unbelievably bright for this uh we just have to cut through the Legacy bu now the problem there’s a huge vested interest and money invested in preserving the existing system so this
[00:52:01] is a hell of a fight that’s coming so s you know listen first of all uh I wish you and Lily and Milan a super happy holidays you know I’m still as optimistic as ever about where we’re going because I do think we have the ability to create an extraordinary life of Health on the back of these Technologies and reinvent education we should go into education in 2025 cuz if there’s a field that needs disrupting it’s Reinventing the entire education industry and when we talk about immune systems the you know that’s companies and so on Healthcare and education are the third and second worst immune systems out there because they’re massive right yeah they’re huge and lots of V so I think that’s exactly right so I’m so excited by what’s going to come in 2025 I can’t wait to see the back of 2024 from frankly yeah well I know you’ve had some you had some challenges s God yeah well anyway I love you buddy thank you for all that you do with open
[00:53:01] EXO uh Happy Holidays happy New Year uh and yeah onwards to 2025 you know it’s amazing right to say the say that we’re in the year 2025 it feels like the future it really really does we might find my favorite quote ever is Arthur C Clark saying the future isn’t what it used to be yeah yeah and you and I will be on stage together at the abundance Summit in March uh we’ve got an incredible lineup of Faculty uh extraordinary individuals I’m super super pumped for folks like going have Travis uh colanic who’s the founder of uber and Cloud kitchens talking about how do you start a moonshot company that transforms an entire industry Kathy Wood benote kosla two the largest tech investors Brett atock the head of figure AI a number of robot companies there uh and then we have the Google tech Hub amazing companies in the Google tech Hub this year so awesome super pumped can’t wait what’s open what’s happening with open EXO just before we we wrap up here we’re
[00:54:02] finishing kind of our tool set and we’re starting to do a lot more public sector work with governments and so on and we’re incredibly excited about that um uh I want to talk to you separately about some of that but this it’s unbelievable what’s coming along and where folks go to learn more about Open EXO open exo.kai and we have tool sets and training and community and lots of folks that can come and help if you need help yeah amazing all right onwards to 2025 onwards to the Future all right have a great one Peter you too buddy [Music]