the Advent of super intelligence it it is actually very difficult to predict what will happen next so I think there you know there’s some chance um uh that it will end Humanity I I think that’s you know like I said I probably agree with Jeff Hinton that it’s about um I don’t know 10% or 20% or something like that the probable uh positive scenario outweighs the negative scenario it it’s just that there’s a it’s difficult to predict exactly so here’s a deal we’re on we’re on X video and we’re over starlink elon’s airborne right now on his way to La Elon good afternoon uh good afternoon congratulations on uh on all that’s going on you know the conversation yesterday Elon is one that you’re well familiar with and have been talking to the world about which is is digital super intelligence Humanity’s greatest hope or its greatest fear and I would
[00:01:00] love to have you sort of speak to that for a few minutes I mean it’s it’s called The Singularity for a reason um as a as you know the singularity Institute and whatnot um so when you have a s you know sort of the Advent of super intelligence it is actually very difficult to predict what will happen next so I think there you know there’s some chance um uh that it’ll end Humanity I I think that’s you know like I said I would probably agree with Jeff Hinton that it’s about um I don’t know 10% or 20% or something like that um and then I you know I think there’s I think that the the probable uh positive scenario outweighs the negative scenario it it’s just that there’s a it’s difficult to predict exactly um but I I think we are headed for um you know as as I think is the title of your book abundance uh is the most likely
[00:02:02] outcome so yeah a lot a lot of celebration on on that and and I think one of the things that you’ve said is we’re going to get to abundance on the backside of of AGI on the backside of humanoid robots yeah um you know I think hopefully we can uh have an outcome that is half similar to uh the in Banks uh culture books um which is I think probably the the best envisioning of um a semi utopian uh AI future um and I I think the best we can do is it’s definitely going to happen so and it’s happening fast so that I think that really we just want want to try to steer it in um as positive a direction as possible to try to do whatever we can to um increase the probability of a of a great future
[00:03:00] um for this I think uh the way in which U sort of an AI or an AI is created uh is very important um you you you kind of do kind of like grow grow an AGI um it’s it’s almost like like raising a a kid but that’s like a Super Genius Like Godlike intelligence kid um and it matters kind of like how you rais the kid you know um one of the things I think that’s incredibly important for AI safety is to have a a maximum sort of Truth seeking and uh Curious AI um so I’ve thought a lot about AI safety um and my My ultimate conclusion is that the best way to achieve AI safety is to um just just just grow the AI you know in terms of the foundation bottle and the fine-tuning um to be
[00:04:00] um uh really truthful like like don’t Don’t Force It to lie like even if the truth is unpleasant it’s very important don’t make the AI lie u in fact the you know the the sort of one of the really the core the core plot premise of 20 you know 2001 at SP Odyssey was things went wrong when they forced the AI to lie you know like the the um the AI was uh not allowed uh let the crew know about the monolith that they were going to see but it was also how to take the crew to the monolith and so the conclusion of the AI was to kill the crew and take their bodies to the monolith and so the lesson there being uh Don’t Force an an AI to to lie or do things that are axiomatically incompatible like to do two things that are actually mutually impossible uh so um you know that’s what we’re trying to do with with xai and and grock is to say like look we want to
[00:05:01] just have a maximally truthful uh AI even if what it says is not politically correct uh if you wanted to focus on um being as as accurate you’re getting you’re getting a a round of applause from the audience on on uh on those comments here uh you know I saw your Tweet the other day I had I had Ray KW and Jeffrey Hinton on stage with me yesterday as as well as uh madat and then Eric Schmidt and a number of individuals and I saw your your Tweet about um yeah Ry was was generally correct ahead of many people but we’re likely to have call AGI what you will have AGI next year and then by 2029 having AI equally intelligent to the entire human race um speak to that speed because that is insane yeah so I mean I have to give credit to Ray kwell and being actually remarkably um accurate in his predictions so um
[00:06:00] um in fact if anything like I think he was perhaps a bit conservative uh in his predictions um so if you look at the amount of of AI compute and the talent the the sort of human talent that is going into Ai and the amount of compute that’s going into AI um it’s you know at this point it’s it’s it appears to be increasing by a factor of 10 the AI compute the dedicated AI compute appears to be growing by a factor of 10 every six months you know like so it’s like like basically close to i’ say almost like a 100x Improvement per year at least for the next few years um in AI compute coming online um and it seems like probably a lot of the the data centers maybe most of the data centers that currently do kind of conventional uh compute will transition to uh AI so um it’s it’s certainly a good time to be Nvidia obviously um it’s like you know
[00:07:02] and you got to also give credit to to Jensen uh and the the Nidia team for kind of seeing this coming and um making what at least currently is the the best uh AI Hardware out there um so so so when you have that that level of compute uh uh growth and um it’s it’s sort of on steroids Next Level it’s you know terms of how much computer’s coming online then you’re you’re just going to have acceleration that uh is unprecedented in fact I’ve never seen any technology grow as fast as as AI uh and I’ve seen a lot you know I’ve seen things fast but I’ve never seen anything this fast um but you know like I said I think the the most likely outcome is um a positive one um and um you know I think in that positive scenario there’s still
[00:08:00] challenges of like well how do we as humans still have relevance you know um how do we find how purpose how how do we find purpose but I mean I think sort of a high class problem to say like well the computers are so good at at at doing everything and and um like said I thought your book is pretty accurate in terms of the future being being one of abundance where essentially goods and services will be uh in available in such quantity that that really uh they’ll be available to everyone like basically if you want something you can just have it essentially um because if you got Ai and Robotics uh the cost of goods and services uh is uh almost nothing um so um you know if if you think of like what is an economy an economy is basically number of people times average productivity per person at
[00:09:02] the point at which you have say Advanced robotics U and this you know this Tesla developing Optimus um obviously we have our cars which are really robots on on four wheels um and the you know with the the the latest version of um full stoft driving which is um AI end to end photons in and controls out um it really is um it’s really fully AI at this point um and uh it looks like a car but it’s really a robot on on on Wheels um and uh and you add the humanoid robots in there there’s there’s really no limit to what the economic output no no meaningful limit to what the econ economic output would be so you know looking on the bright side uh the we are headed for a future of abundance um that I think that’s the most likely outcome I think the only scarcity will that that exists will be scarcity that we just decide to create artificially
[00:10:02] like let’s say we just decide that there’s a unique work of art or something okay well it’s just you just it’s just artificial scarcity but but any kind of goods and services I think will be extremely abundant everybody I want to take a short break from our episode to talk about a company that’s very important to me and could actually save your life or the life of someone that you love company is called Fountain life and it’s a company I started years ago with Tony Robbins and a group of very talented Physicians you know most of us don’t actually know what’s going on inside our body we’re all optimists until that day when you have a pain in your side you go to the physician or the emergency room and they say listen I’m sorry to tell you this but you have this stage three or four going on and you know it didn’t start that morning it probably was a problem that’s been going on for some time but because we never look we don’t find out so what we built at Fountain life was the world’s most
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[00:13:03] well when when things are changing rapidly the the ability to predict the future I think is uh becomes a lot hotter because of the rate of change is so great um but I think some things are fairly obvious to predict which is that we’ll have um AI or AI That’s at a level that it can really do almost any cognitive I think really not almost really any cognitive task that’s just a question when one could debate is it you know smarter than any human at the end of next year or is it two years or 3 years but it’s not more than five years that’s for sure um so um yeah and get prediction predictions predictions I’m sort of say giving predictions at the 50th percentile of probability so not not not like it will definitely happen but if you say what if you ask me like what’s the 50th percentile um where it’s like you know your kind of over under is kind of even
[00:14:02] that that’s where I why why I I think it’s probably end of next year before AI can do better than any individual human could do um and then uh but there’s it’s it’s a much higher bar to say well is it small than um you know human intelligence collectively but if the rate of change continues uh that’s why I think probably 2029 or maybe 2030 is where um digital intelligence will probably exceed uh all human intelligence combined um and and I think it’s always helpful to look at these like fundamental ratios um you know sort of physics first principles approach to to looking at things and um and and probabilistic yeah and and probabilistic yeah so yeah it’s probabilistic so um the uh yeah so um if you look at the ratio of digital to biological compute so like
[00:15:03] like you know all all of say all of the higher level cognitive if you sum up the higher level cognitive capacity of of humans um and then what is the and think of that as compute then uh well and then compare that to what what is the uh digital compute um and the rate at which this is growing is just bugles the mind so that’s why I think it’s you know I think 2029 or 2030 or thereabouts is is a it’s not a that’s I think a reasonable time frame for where you’d expect the the cumulative digital compute to probably exceed the cumulative biological compute of higher level brain functions um and then from from then forever yeah and still and in dispatching and and uh diverging forever from there
[00:16:01] yeah and and then yeah where do things go from there I I don’t know probably continues um the I we are moving from you say if you look at the the living factors you know the what what is the constraint on growth um you like last year it was clearly uh AI chips were the constraint on growth um then then this year the one of the biggest constraints maybe the biggest constraints on on growth um are voltage step down Transformers because you know the the just just getting the power from like a utility at 300 kilovolts all the way down to below one volt for the computer is is a massive amount of voltage uh step down so it’s it’s a you know my sort of very Niche and perhaps not that funny joke is uh that uh we need Transformers for Transformers um so we need voltage Transformers or AI you know neural net Transformers um that that is literally the issue uh this year um and
[00:17:02] then if we’re saying like next year and years beyond that it’s actually just it’s going to be constraints on um electrical power um and you’ve got uh both AI with very big demands for electrical power and the transition to sustainable energy with electric vehicles whatnot also needing electrical power so it’s uh it’s just a lot a lot of electrical power needs you know Elon one of the one of the things that you said early on when you when you founded neuralink um which has been amazing congratulations on that um and we talked about this with Rey yesterday talked about high bandwidth BCI uh was I wouldn’t put words in your mouth but I would say it would be more along the lines if you can’t beat them join them um when it comes to uh uh you know merging the neocortex and the cloud can you I I’m looking forward to it I’m just
[00:18:00] curious what your thoughts are about uh what’s driving that I mean add adding adding that additional uh computational capacity and sensory capacity to the neocortex yeah I mean again this is actually something that in Banks uh in the culture books which I really recommend everyone read um that in the uh culture books there’s uh something called a neural lace so all the humans have neural lace that’s kind [Music] of um a very essentially A high bandwidth uh brain to computer interface um and um in at least in the culture books the it’s so good that it actually retains all of your memories and kind of brain state so even if your physical body dies you can kind of re reincorporate in another physical body and retain you know pretty much your original memories and and brain State um so now is long way from that um we only
[00:19:04] just had our first um uh neural link and a human which is going it’s going quite well um the uh the first patient is actually able to uh control their computer uh just by thinking so like this first the first uh product we call telepathy where you can control your computer and phone and through and through your computer and phone almost anything just just by thinking you just lie there and think and you can move the the mouse coaster around the screen and things and like you know the we’re g to do patient has agreed to do sort of a uh like I think a live demo of just it is qu quadriplegic uh where he literally is just controlling the the screen he can like um play video games download software uh like really anything you can do with a mouse um just by
[00:20:00] thinking um which is pretty wild it it is it is pretty wild uh let let’s turn to one last I should say there’s a long way to go from that to uh a whole brain interface so our current uh neur link just has a th000 electrodes I think ultimately you need something which which has you know probably 100,000 or or a million electrodes now these are very tiny very tiny electrodes that they’re tiny wires way smaller than a human hair um and um you know so there’s this I I just want to emphasize a long way from from where NE link is today to having a whole brain interface like um like the neural a and the Ian Banks uh novels uh but this this is definitely physically possible um and um you know it’s sort of kind of like if you can’t beat him join him you know um so you know a human brain which is has a lot of constraints it’s you
[00:21:00] know it’s it’s yeah they only have about maybe 10 watts of higher brain function um and uh we do a lot with our little 10 watts it’s not you know it’s impressive you know that we we’ we’ve buil with um such a low power computer really it you know I sort of think it’s like it’s it’s not bad for a bunch of monkeys you know um I’ll get some good laughs from that we’ve all watched you go from the uh the Roadster to the model 3 and Y and and from Falcon 1 to Starship so I think going from the first implants to uh something that’s got more capacity it’s just just a matter of if not when or a matter of when not if right hey everyone I want to take a quick break from this episode to tell you about a health product that I love and that I use every day in fact I use it twice a day it
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[00:23:03] moonshots and enter the code Peter 25 checkout that’s seed.com moonshots and use the code Peter 25 to get your 25% off the first month of seeds daily symbiotic trust me your gut will thank you all right let’s go back to the episode um let’s talk to I think ultimately like said you’ll have uh like um you’ll have uh kind of a whole brain interface U that uh I guess is a sort of perhaps a form of immortality and and that if if it can um uh kind of upload your brain State uh to you know if your brain state is essentially stored um you’re kind of backed up on a hard drive I suppose um then uh you know you can always restore that brain State into a a biological body or or or maybe a robot or something
[00:24:01] um and I want to emphasize again it’s like you know many years in the future but but I I we’re not breaking any laws of physics like I think this is this is probably something that will happen um the rate we’re building digital super intelligence it may just be that you know we’ll have digital super intelligence and it’ll just solve the solve the problem for us um but uh in in the meantime uh we we’ll progressing with our meat computerss and trying to try to do do as good job as possible that’s was going to say the uh uh the the tools that we have are growing at a super exponential rate that are making our linear projections of the future seem boring in some ways what one last topic my friend uh which is where you and I first connected in the world of space congratulations on Starship 3 uh amazing amazing flight just really spectacular and we all saw uh a falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg
[00:25:01] last night uh so that was great and uh oh yeah um uh just again thankful for the work you’re doing you know I it’s fascinating because I grew up at the late stages of the Apollo and into into the uh into the uh uh shuttle program and I can’t imagine that any government would be pushing space as rapidly and dramatically as you are and so um uh thank you for what you’re doing there that’s all I can say uh absolutely well I mean the the goal of SpaceX is is it’s just a a much bigger goal than any any government program which is to um uh rockets and spacecraft that are capable of making life multiplanetary so you know I mean step one is actually having that as a goal if you don’t have that as a goal you’re definitely not going achieve it um if you have it as a goal well now at least
[00:26:01] you have a chance of achieving it um and this the thing about Starship is it is it is the the first rocket where uh making life multiplanetary and you have building a self-sustaining City on Mars is uh is at least possible um uh it’s still obviously an immense amount of work but but it is the first rocket word um that is success of in making like multi plator is at least one of the possible outcomes yeah um I’m wondering if you’re willing to venture a guess on when you’ll be on the moon I think pretty soon um I’d be surprised if it’s if it’s longer than about 3 years uh to be landing Starships on the moon um and uh because the rate progression of Starship is very rapid um you know we’re hoping to do at least uh another maybe five or
[00:27:01] six flights this year and with each successive flight making significant improvements uh so I think we got a decent shot of achieving um full reusability of both stages uh the booster and the ship uh this year um and if not this year I think you know knock on with it’s like I think it’s a very high probability of achieving full reusability uh next year which um really is the fundamental breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary um yeah for for those that that that that don’t don’t know the rocket industry that that well that they may not be aware that that that this is really the Holy Grail of rocketry is is full full and Rapid reusability um because at that point you’re uh you’re really just constrained by your um propellant costs and Starship you know almost 80% of pallet is liquid oxygen which is very
[00:28:01] low cost um and then the fuel is met there sort of a little over 20% fuel which is methane was the lowest cost fuel so if you have um full rapid reability uh then um your actual cost per flight of Starship uh even though it’s it’ll be capable of um we think ultimately 200 tons to uh to orbit uh will be maybe the FL say you miss say 200,000 you said the the the price of the fuel you said for Starship flight would be how much yeah the the the I mean if Most states are um reusable and with without a refurbishment then you or without you know you’d have scheduled maintenance just like a an aircraft but uh with with if if you get to full
[00:29:00] reusability where there’s no um no work required between fights then you you you you then um the cost you know is really uh you the cost of repellent is maybe a million dollars or less per flight um so then it’s U number of flights magude better than any vehicle anybody listen I’m so grateful thank you for your time today thank you for not taking my advice when I tried to get you to uh fund the original X prise instead of starting SpaceX and uh and you know everybody here in the room has a we call a massive transformative purpose in a moonshot and it’s uh we’re
[00:30:02] living in a day where people can make a you know to use Steve’s word Steve Jobs words the dent in the universe and nobody’s making a bigger Dent than you um thank you thank you for everything let’s give it up for Elon [Music] Musk