coding is changing dramatically there will be no coder that doesn’t use AI as part of their [Music] workflow 5G and starlink the dry Kindle for this fire has been set is this more important than 5G by orders of magnitude orders of magnitude there is no kind of pure independent completely rational person because we’re not robots so medicine is changing uh dramatically is your doctor AI enhanced lower insurance premium lower co-pay that is something across every industry it’s going to be happening 10 years out what is a lawyer what is an accountant what is an engineer they are all AI assisted the entire knowledge sector is transformed and it enables you to do whatever you want to do learning should be a place of Positive Growth and joy where’s the difference there where’s the difference and I think the key thing here is empathy we’re in this beautiful home in
[00:01:00] the Hollywood Hills uh and A lot’s happened in the last 6 months since we were recording our last podcast and you were on the stage at abundance 360 and I think this is epicenter for a lot of people’s concerns right now uh a transformation potentially in Holly when you were speaking about that that it’s going to change dramatically and I would you say we’re haven’t even seen a small portion of the change yet I think we are at the foot of the mountain as it where I kind of compare it to being at the iPhone 2g to 3G Point we’ve just got copy and paste we haven’t seen what this technolog is really capable of yet and it hasn’t got everywhere it’s like everyone’s talking about it but not that many people are using it there was a recent study done um uh that showed only 17% of people had used chat GPT in the US despite the fact
[00:02:00] you can do anyone’s homework I mean it seems incredibly a small percentage I guess because the community I hang out with everybody’s using it but well this the thing we live in our monocultures but then a third of the world still doesn’t have internet right and you think the first internet they get will probably be AI enhanced yeah and then you think about this technology proliferating it’s when it becomes Enterprise ready Enterprise adoption company adoption always takes a while but by next year that happens and I think every company everywhere that has anything to do with knowledge work will implement this at scale and that’s a crazy thought and when it’s embedded in the things you use every day and you don’t know it’s part of what you’re using I think that’s the thing technology you don’t need to know that it’s 5G or this the internet works faster you can watch movies quicker you know in this case you write something in Google Docs now they just rolled it out you can say make this snap here and it will do it automatically technology doesn’t need to be there as technology in the front it’s
[00:03:00] all about use cases and the use cases are now maturing and again I think next year is the real takeoff but now everyone’s feeling it who has anything to do with it like something is coming I in this conversation I want to really think through how this is all affecting every industry and let’s start with two industries uh one is journalism and the other is Hollywood which is we’re sitting in the midst of this uh one of the concerns I have I know you share it a lot of people do especially with elections coming up and you know 18 months 2024 is what is Truth uh and are we going to enter a posttruth world and you talk about your thoughts on journalism and how AI is impacting it so I think you’ve seen shifts in journalism over the years uh but we’re all familiar with kind of some of the clickbait journalism that we see now um AI can obviously do clickbait better than humans that’s one kind of extreme this whole fake news deep fake kind of stuff
[00:04:00] that’s a real concern and that’s why we have authenticity mechanisms now we embed water marking you know we partner with GPT zero and other things to identify AI but on the other side of it there’s a real challenge coming because AI can also help with truth it can help you do proper analysis and expand out the reasoning for things it can identify biases within so journalism as it stand is caught between two things to get clicks to get ads they went a bit more clickbait and they focus on sensationalist headlines even if it’s with unnamed sources and things on the other hand someone’s going to build an AI system AI enhanced system that for any article you read you can find all the background material and that suddenly becomes a source of Truth so it’s kind of a pincer movement and journalists and news sources will have to figure out where are you in this how do you compete to provide value yeah are you BuzzFeed on one end which is you know mostly all Click by all the time or you’re trying to be the New York Times and deliver well research journalism but
[00:05:04] the entity that competes with the New York Times that will come and who knows it might be the New York Times itself can use AI to enhance great journalism write in any voice do all these things and give fully reference facts that you can explore the other side is that we’re going to trust this technology more and more just like we trust Google Maps just like you trust other things such that it’s like why have I got a human doctor without an AI why have I got a journalist who isn’t using AI to check everything and their own implicit biases and I think that part is actually quite misunderstood as to something that’s coming because again humans plus AI out compete humans without AI I I I believe in that and I see that and I I think you know it’s interesting in my life and those I know um AI hasn’t replaced the things that I’ve done it hasn’t actually even saved me time per se because I’m still spending the same amount of time it’s allowed me to do a better job at what I want to do which is the end
[00:06:00] product yeah well I mean that’s cuz you do a little bit of everything so you’ll always fill Gap you know like it’s true I I feel I feel every moment in the time creating something for one of my companies well I mean this is an open aai report that was done where they said that between 14% And 50% of tasks will be augmented by AI will be changed by AI cuz again I think a large am of the focus is on these automated systems the Terminators you know to the Bots whereas realistically the way this I will come in is to help us with individual tasks rewriting something generating an image making a song adjusting your speech to sound more confident yeah you know and we’ll get to the dystopian conversation because I’d like to hear what you think is real versus hype um I think the audience needs to understand what should they truly be concerned about and what shouldn’t they I mean that is you know being able to trace back and have a a a truth mechanism uh we can talk about what you know elon’s looking to build as
[00:07:01] well uh on the truth side but it’s fascinating when the truth becomes blurry yeah and you know there’s not always an objective truth because it depends upon your individual context right yeah and we didn’t have the systems to be able to be comprehensive authoritative or up to dat enough to do that until today so well we can actually go to the uh root source of the data and and uh see is it valid uh maybe it’s a blockchain enabled validation mechanism um you know maybe it’s got that Authority that authentication maybe it’s you know you mentioned Elon Community notes on Twitter that AI enhanced that can pull from various things you know and show the pro so you’ve got Providence again you’ve got Authority you have comprehensiveness you have up-to-dateness the future of Wikipedia is not what Wikipedia looks like today but that future becomes something that can be integrated into other things so what you’ll have is for any piece of
[00:08:01] information you’ll be able to say this is the bias from which it was said these are the compositional sources and more so for example there’s a great app that I use called perplexity AI okay so when you go to gp4 or being you write stuff it doesn’t give you all the sources perplexity actually brings in all the sources at a surface level but it references why it said certain things with gp4 that’s just going to get more and more advanced so you can diging into as much depth as you want and ask it to rephrase things as what if that article there wasn’t true that fed this or what about this perspective if I want it to be a bit more libertarian do do you think it’s possible to actually get to a uh fundamental truth in a lot of these areas I think it depends on the area right some areas there are fundamental truth this happened or it didn’t happen even though you see deniers of various things you know a lot of stuff is probabilistic when you’re thinking about the future you know but even something like climate you see a lot of deniers of
[00:09:00] the real problem that we have with it being very difficult to persuade them because it becomes part of their ideology almost but with this technology you can say look literally here is the comprehensiveness so like Jeremy Howard and Trisha greenlay did analysis of well over a 100 mask papers and did a meta analysis on the effectiveness of that for covid MH and then that helped change the global discussion on masking because some actually bothered to do a comprehensive analysis what was the result well the result was masks work for Respiratory dis there’s so many people that just refuse to believe that masks have any value but let’s not go down that road you know one of the things I found interesting was the idea of a uh a GPT model being able to translate your points of view for someone else to make to receive them better like if you’re hardcore to the right and you want to convince someone about your issue having uh having chat GPT or uh one of stabilities products
[00:10:01] generate a Rewritten version of that language so the person can hear it better um I find that an interesting and Powerful tool yeah I think this is the thing it’s all about your individual context and what resonates with you because information exists within a context yeah so if it’s going to change a state within you you need to understand your point of view so if we think of these as really talented youngsters these AIS that go a bit funny what would you want you would want someone to sit down and say well I’m listening to your point of view in your context and my point of view in my context and let’s find some common ground and then we can work from there MH much of politics isn’t really about facts it’s about persuasion because facts when you have diametrically a Divergent context are very difficult to do so you said being able to rewrite something from one context to another is important but then you have to understand the context and that’s what these models do really really well we can take a piece and we can say rewrite it as a rap by Eminem or or in the style of ulyses by James Joyce
[00:11:02] yeah and it will do that because it understands the essence of that you know I think people don’t realize I want to just hit this point again we’ve talked about it somewhat our our minds are neural Nets our brains are neuron Nets 100 trillion neurons and everything that you bring into your mind this conversation that we’re having what you’re watching on the TV News newspaper what’s on your walls the people you hang out with are all constantly shaping the way you see your the world and shaping your mindset it’s one of the things I think about in the future of uh news media is an individual actively being able to choose what mindset they want to work on like I’d I’d like to have a more optimistic mindset I’d like to have a more moonshot mindset a more an abundance mindset and then being able to have that information fed to you in a factual fashion that allows you to instead of what the crisis News Network delivers which is a constantly negative
[00:12:00] news yeah it’s constant dopamine affecting your fight ORF flight response yeah you can say make it from this point of view you don’t change the facts but even the way things are worded um or a balancing right I mean I don’t need to see every murder tell me what the companies that got funded tell me the breakthroughs that occurred you know the science that’s occurred today that’s but there’s even a again everything you can it depends on how you portray it right you know there are murders I take a murder for example yeah there is the facts there is the oh my God there’ll be a million more murders there is the case that it’s a very sad thing there’s the case that you know the police are working super hard to solve this and we need to reach out to the families and come together as a community these are all different aspects for the same terrible action yes which have different levels of positivity negativity click Bess versus Community right Facebook did a study many years ago um whereby they had a hypothesis if you see sad things on your timeline you will post sadder
[00:13:02] things this is whyp this is why independent review boards are very important in ethics as well and so they did it and guess what 600,000 users were enrolled in that study without their knowing H if you see sadder things on your timeline you post sadder things was the result so like I said there’s some real ethical considerations but we know this we know that if we’re always bombarded by crisis we will be in a crisis mentality we know if we surround ourselves with positive people and positive messages we will have a positive mentality and it’s very insu and not insid it’s kind of almost passive the way we absorb it I love one of the facts uh I’m writing my one of my next books on on uh longevity practices and uh a study in on the order of 20,000 individuals uh those who had an optimistic mindset lived an average of 17% longer I mean just your mindset shift 17% this was true both in men and in women
[00:14:01] slightly more in women uh and so how you think impacts everything and how you think is to a large degree going to be shaped by the media and AI is going to shape that so it’s a powerful lever that we all need to be paying attention to I think it is but then you know you have to consider what is the plasticity for example of our children as they grow up yeah like we’re going to have Nanny AI yep what’s that Nanny going to teach is that Nanny going to teach fight flight happiness this that what about in places like China what are they going to teach there is a huge amount of neuroplasticity that will be influenced by decisions we make today yeah I mean listen you have young kids I have young kids as well and I think about the fact that school today is not preparing our kids anywhere near for the future right I mean I don’t think middle school and high school uh traditionally is preparing them for
[00:15:02] my kids are 12 right now yeah um how do you feel about that no I mean I think school is not fit for purpose it’s a petri dish social status game and you know like child care because again let’s think about school what do you what are you taught at school you taught competitive tests because we can’t capture the context of the kids right we can’t adapt to if they’re visual Learners auditory Learners dyslexic or otherwise and it narrows it down and you’re told you cannot be creative you’re told you can’t inside the lines learn these facts literally you color inside the lines you learn these facts every child will have an AI in the west yes hopefully soon the whole world will have an AI with them as they grow up and again is that AI a positive constructive or is the AI a tiger AI that kind of is aggressive get your work done get your work strive harder is it pelaton AI for Education maybe that’s the pivot right there’s a whole range of things
[00:16:01] but our kids are so sensitive as they grow and again in a school environment they’re told they have to be competitive and there’s only a few people that are worthy who are at the top and that’s why you have clicks sub clicks and others and that’s reinforced by our social media now as well because you need something to fill the meaning I think we have to be much more intentional and think what information do we want going to our children like many people listening to this podcast will have banned social media from our kids how do you feel about that I think that is probably a sensible thing because it’s a slow D AI that optimizes for adverse things mhm and again it’s not the fault of the social media company it’s just how they are you know as the tiger and the Scorpion yeah I mean I have not allowed my kids to have a mobile phone and I’ve told them when they can afford it when they go to college but you know it’s going to be somewhere between now and then but I I agree I think social media shouldn’t be part of the repertoire but again what is social media right it’s it’s kids looking for status and trying to you know influence
[00:17:00] each other it was meant to bring our communities together stronger yeah maybe perhaps early on you know probably where we see the strongest Community is actually in video games and guilds and kind of things like that a lot of this is again you’ve got X number of people posting positive things and you’re like why is my life not positive like that yeah but social media does have its advantages and the question is can you tease out the positive versus the negative when you can finally customize it for each individual or are you going to reinforce to the nth degree I I’ll give you a perfect example I was just meeting with a dear friend of mine Keith farazi who is absolutely brilliant uh and he had met last week with the king of Bhutan yeah which is known for its happiness and they were having a conversation how they measure their economy it’s how they measure their e economy um gross national happiness in that regard and uh when social media entered the country it began to plummet yeah uh teen depression and suicides began to climb it is a very
[00:18:00] measurable real thing and uh that’s not the subject of this podcast but AI can do what for that area well I mean again we have to think about it in terms of mental infrastructure I like that we don’t have enough like Clayton Christensen said infrastructure is the most efficient means by which a society stores and distributes value Claude Shannon the father of computer science said information is valuable in as much as it changes a state we do not think at all about our mental infrastructure mhm and what’s supporting it if we’re lucky or if you know we try hard we can build a group of supportive people around us and where do we go when we have issues we go to that group yeah yet so many people feel alone you know so many people feel like again this rise in suicide or they feel not good enough because it serves the slow Dum AI of our existing systems so I think that actually we need to take some time out to think what information do I want going to my
[00:19:01] kids we have Concepts like deliberative democracy MH you know whereby you get a group of diverse people from different backgrounds you give them the facts and they go and make a decision just like you have jury trials you’re one of the most important things I think there is a it’s getting understanding the context of each person which I think a I can Hance with B it’s just actually literally having time to think when was the last time you thought about your information diet and what you’re feeding yourself and your kids think about it a lot I think because that’s what I teach so I’m very clear I do not watch the TV news I don’t even watch the newspapers I have very filtered information that comes to me which could be argued to be an echo chamber but uh you know I’m focused on these are the scientific breakthroughs this is what’s going on in longevity this is what’s going on in exponential Tech and solving problems so I’m I’m as critical about what i’ take into my mind from an information uh uh source as I am what I eat cuz you are
[00:20:00] what you eat and you eat information and then you absorb it right but then you know as you said the echo chamber thing I believe we should also deliberately show counter viewpoints as we’re raising our kids MH and get them to argue the opposite I think debate is one of the most beautiful forms especially when you flip sides exactly because organisms also grow through hysteresis yes you know when you’re put under pressure when you’re forced to do something out the normal otherwise as you said you’ll become increasingly siloed but there are very few people again who think deliberately about this and it’s something again I think you and I would probably urge all the listeners to think about are you challenging your priors are you giving the right information diet for yourself for your kids yes and then thinking about this technology as you use a gp4 or Claude or stable LM any of these things what if you took that article and viewed it from a different perspective or what if you tied it to only be positive the news there’s
[00:21:00] another part too which is we all have these cognitive biases right these cognitive biases were wired into our brain over the last uh you know hundreds of thousands of years as an Energy Efficiency mechanism because we can’t process all the information coming in so we’re biased by is the person look like me speak like me is this recent information versus old information paying 10 times more attention to negative information the positive information I can’t wait to have a an AI that I can flip the switch and say turn on bias notifications and it says you’re looking at this in a biased fashion Peter here’s another way to look at it yeah and you know being aware of your bi I mean like most religions have at the core know thyself yesos have done in ancient Greek yeah I wrote my college essay on that but I mean that that’s why it’s at the core it’s very difficult when you have the detritus of life and all these things you’re bombarded with to take time back and really know yourself know your own biases understand
[00:22:01] these because they are part of what makes you you’re made up of the stories there is no kind of pure independent completely rational person because we’re not robots so it’s possible in the future then for a social media with a more conscious powerful AI I shouldn’t use the word conscious as a different meaning here uh but AI that you feel safe having your kids do it because it is making them happier making them more motivated it is feeding them uh a flow of information that’s uplifting versus depressing can you imagine that future I can imagine that future I can also Imagine the future of Brave New World whereby you are fed what exactly the government wants you to and you are happy and especially with authoritarian regimes you’re literally the kids are grown with their AI Nannies of course you know and you even have the Pharmaceuticals to make you extra happy and extra neuroplastic so for example you have UAE uh did a falcon model open
[00:23:01] source it was kind of supported by Lon from France technologically you ask it about the UAE and it’s like it’s a wonderful place it’s amazing in all regards you ask it about some of the neighbors it’s not so nice this is an inherent bias within the model but how you going to understand it versus an implicit bias and you can put any biases you want yeah you can guide these models through reinforcement learning to reflect what you do and if that’s the only option then you will adhere to a certain world view again almost subconsciously yeah it’ll be reflected in all the products you produce all the writings you have um and it doesn’t have to be that high a percentage change a small persistent change sways a lot well exactly I mean like um half the world is religious mhm you can agree or not or say follows a organized religion you can agree or disagree but I can tell you that almost every single technologist who is leading allot of these was like I don’t really like religion right and so
[00:24:01] the inherent bias would be to talk against religious kind of things again I’m like who am I to judge yeah people can be they cannot be but the inherent bias is refactor and actually it becomes very important for society because we’ve seen that when about 12% of a population changes a point of view it flips interesting doesn’t take that much it doesn’t take that much because you listen to the voices in the Echo chamber like sometimes on Twitter you know I use my block button a lot I like you know listen I’ve been enjoying your tweets you they’ve been really good um and I appreciate the frequency well you know it’s it’s nice owning your own media channel in a way right sometimes I don’t even have to have lunch because I’m told to eat crap so many times a day right but that’s why you have to hit the blog button because it’s a little Echo chamber only a few dozen people can have that impact upon you yeah I mean it’s going to be very interesting to see the way that our adult minds and our kids Minds evolve over the next 5 to 10 years with the emergence of this new more powerful personalizable technology yes
[00:25:01] it’s either controlled or control everybody it’s Peter I want to take a break from our episode to talk about a health product that I love it was a few years ago I went looking for the best nutritional green drink on the market so I went to Whole Foods and I started looking around I found three shelves filled with options I looked at the labels and they really didn’t wow me so I picked the top three that I thought looked decent brought them home tried them and they sucked first of all they tasted awful and then second nutritional facts actually weren’t very impressive it was then that I found a product called ag1 by athletic greens and without any question athletic greens is the best on the market by a huge margin first of all it actually tastes amazing and second if you look at the ingredients 75 highquality ingredients that deliver nutrient dense antioxidants multivitamin vins pre and probiotics immune support
[00:26:00] adaptogens I personally utilize ag1 literally every day I travel with an individual packet in my backpack sometimes in my back pocket and I count on it for you know gut health immunity energy digestion neural support and really healthy aging so if you want to take ownership of your health today is a good day to start athletic greens is giving you a free one-year supply of vitamin D and five of these tribal packs with your first purchase so go to athletic greens.com back/ moonshots that’s athletic greens.com back/ moonshots check it out you’ll thank me without question this is the best green drink product the most nutritious the most flavorful I found all right let’s go back to the episode so we’re sitting here in the middle of Hollywood I can see the beautiful Hollywood Hills the Hollywood signs around here someplace just over there just over there okay um and uh the news today is scen Actor Guild everyone one’s gone on strike uh there is great uh fear
[00:27:02] pain concern and you know you called it when we spoke uh 6 months ago uh what’s going on how do you view it and where’s it going so I think the advances in Media or artificial intelligence have been huge you’ve now got uh the Drake AI song or my favorite ice ice Matrix where the Matrix characters sing Ice Ice Baby yes um you’ve got real time rigging you have real-time special effects you’ve got high definition creation of anything what does that mean it means that the whole industry is about to be disrupted because the cost of production reduces it was reducing in some ways anyway and we’ve seen this move where the cost of consumption went to zero with Napster and Spotify then the cost of creation started going to zero with Snapchat and Tik Tok and now we have a question of what are the defaults going to be now and consumers only have one
[00:28:03] limited uh currency and that’s their attention I think so but consumers are willing to pay for attention they’re willing to pay for Quality well either premium mediocre or you know otherwise because video games for example started at a $70 billion industry 10 years ago the average score went from 69% to 74% on Metacritic over that period and now they’re $180 billion movies I pay for some of that with my 12-year-olds there you go movies went from 40 billion to 50 billion but the average IMDb movie rating over the last 10 years has been 6.4 it has not changed so you’re not producing more and so they’re not consuming more so there’s a question will this technology enable an increase in quality because it raises the bar for everyone yes there are more Movie Makers so there are more excellent Movie Makers and the best movie makers become even more excellent we’ve democratized the tools on from an iPhone
[00:29:00] to uh you know the the tools on your on your Mac uh and of course YouTube has disrupt was the first major disruption of the it was someone like Mr Beast has a much bigger audience than CNN now yeah but that comes down to what is the key Point here distribution you can make good stories but if no one hears them right and that’s what that’s what Disney has as its uh benefit its distribution to its theme parks to its to its products to its channels it creates a shelling point but then if we will have our own individualized AIS that can find us what we need and sift through the crap maybe whole of distribution flips on its head in 5 years as well so I can’t imagine I you know I keep thinking that the future of of movie consumption is me speaking to my version of Jarvis and saying you know I’d like a comedy I’d like it starring me and three three friends of mine and somebody else and for 90 minutes and set it in you know some
[00:30:01] setting and go and have it autogenerate a compelling story that that is either uh uh because I’m involved in it I’m enraptured in it or because my favorite stars are all together in unlikely place how far are we from that kind of future I’d say probably 3 to 5 years so in that in that case it’s not going to be cheap but it’ll be there and then it’ll get cheaper and cheaper in that case there is no distribution needed a person calls up whatever they want I think there is distribution needed but in a different way music mhm we have a variety of different music sit but how do musicians make their money now it’s not Spotify a million views gets you a few thousand t-shirts merchandising Global stories because there is that future of the Wall-E type of fat guy sitting with his VR headset yeah it’s kind of depressing just like you know the Apple Vision Pro adverts I found kind of depressing when his kids
[00:31:00] are right there and just puts them on you know quite bit dystopian to me um I think it’s more a case of there are certain stories that everyone wants to talk about like here in Hollywood what do we have this week we have Oppenheimer and Barbie oh my God I’m looking forward Oppenheimer I will not watch Barbie sorry would you Heimer only no I won’t go there well I mean we can take it we can put the scripts into Claude and see what it comes up with that would be hilarious hilarious kind of barie but again like people are talking about the Barbie movie because it’s you know not uh she comes to the real world and she has challenges it’ll be a hit people talk about Oppenheimer because again it will be a hit these are produced hits these are produced hits just like I saw BTS with my daughter not BTS black ping oh God she’ll kill me um in Hyde Park a few weeks ago the biggest K-pop band out of Korea right uh um completely manufactured but lots of fun so on the
[00:32:00] one hand what you have is what you described your personalized things that’s kind of like McDonald’s what’s the job to be done the job is Comfort the job isn’t to listen to someone else’s story and expand from there it isn’t a produced Michelin star meal or just a nice restaurant one that you can talk about to others like you can cook ingredients yourself at home as well sure but humans do like these bigger stories but then the nature of funding of musicians changed it was about merchandise it was about kind of a lot of this um other stuff around tours and so I think the nature of movies the business model has changed I mean that’s the most interesting thing about exponential Technologies is it’s changing the business models and I keep on you know uh advising my entrepreneurs it’s reinvent your business models more than anything else you have to always look across theine landscape where is the value Peaks mhm and then you’re
[00:33:03] sitting there and you’re intermediating something and you’re offering service value you know like there was that great quot who is it from the CEO of Netscape um all Valu is created by aggregation or disaggregation bundling or unbundling yeah and you think about how the landscape is going to change now as intelligence has moved to the edge what was once in the hands of the studios the high priest of media suddenly gets pushed to the edge where is value then it changes it it flips it so let’s go let’s go to what’s going on right now so the screen Screen Actor Guild is on strike because of why screen I mean it’s better wages in general standard stuff but now there’s this rapidly emerging fear of artificial intelligence so one of the proposals that came in um from the other side was that basically all the extras all the actors they sign away their right so they could be used in AI so they get a day of wage
[00:34:00] to get scanned and then they can be used for the rest of that studi life in producing background actors and they were looking at this like oh my God wait you can do that yeah most people don’t even realize you can do that you know script writers are saying no AI generated scripts which again is a bit weird when they’re all using grammarly and things like that which was AI how are you ever going to tell yeah where do you draw the line where do you draw the line because this is a technology that’s coming so fast and is so good that it’s almost not like technology at all it’s just very natural the way it emerges and so you will get to some sort of agreement because the big actors are kind of there but the defaults that are set now reverberate so I think that’s an important point that you just made uh the decisions the policies uh that we create today are going to take us down One path or another for the decades to come yeah it
[00:35:02] will affect the whole of Hollywood what’s decided In This Moment here because there won’t be another renegotiation for a while and so again how does an actor create value a top actor has a following but upand comers how did they break through what has the apprentices ship to what does a movie look like in 5 years even if you agree as Hollywood not to have any AI let’s just say you have this kind of Dune style belarian Jihad and say no AI you know and someone will make a movie about no AI in Hollywood what do you do when the Chinese film studios start releasing product start releasing product faster than anything you can make five in every language out there literally every language we have technology now again maybe this is part of do what is possible now we can translate Peter’s voice into just about any language with his voice so it’s not a voice and match my lips and movement exactly match your lips and movements exactly I’m sure the podcast will be in every language by
[00:36:00] next year yeah you know and again it will be in our voices we can make our voices Sanel confident we can take his mannerisms right now and Transplant them onto my mannerism so we match so we can re-shoot scenes with style yeah we can turn him into a robot in a few minutes and in fact maybe we’ll do that in some of the post and so we’ll have a little scene of him becoming a robot um these are all technologies that he now and it transforms fundamentally the nature of film making cuz you only need one shot but don’t the film actors who are uh you know standing up for their rights to not have them basically demonetized and and digitized the other option is for Hollywood to just create complete artificial characters that they fully own yeah and you’ve seen this already with some of the kind of uh vloggers and you know others that have emerged out of Asia in particular fully AI generated characters yeah and you can have entire methos around them and you can say make it the most attractive Italian guy I’ve
[00:37:02] ever seen that’s Broody and this and that how you going to tell it from a human yeah I mean like the these characters can be completely new and it’s far more profitable for the studio to use that digital actor um so there is a disruption coming at every every level because the research to revenue pipeline has become so tight and it sets off a race condition whereby you could produce two movies a year suddenly you can produce 20 um and then you can actually uh like we do AB testing in in subject headlines you could create 30 variants of the movie and see which one actually is the best yeah and I mean again you can say make it more make that speech raar and more emotional it will adjust the voice to make it raar and more emotional right and because you’re using such large data sets you know and we so we made all our data sets open and then we allowed opt out we’re the only company in the world to allow opt out
[00:38:00] because we thought it was the right thing to do so we had 169 million images opted out of our image data sets for music cuz it’s different copyright laws we have one of the first commercially licensed music models coming out so respect for that but if I’m an artist um and I go to the lou to be inspired and then go back and paint um and I’ve been inspired by Da Vinci and I start painting in a style like Da Vinci um where’s the difference there where’s the difference and this is the reality even though we’ve done that by next year probably by the end of the year you will have models that have zero scrape data or human art they will all be synthetic yeah and you’ll be able to bring your art to it so there’s something Google just released called sty drop there’s hyper dream there’s hyper networks a hyper dream Booth you take one picture of your yourself and the entire model trains to be able to put you into anything even if you’re not in the model
[00:39:00] it used to take minutes hours now it’s just one picture you know similar you can bring any style and it will just MIM and imitate that style and so all of a sudden the models themselves it doesn’t matter what they’re trained on because there’s no human endeavor in those models and then things like compensation for artists and others as you said become a bit mute because all of a sudden you have these amazing stories told by really convincing amazing actors who may or may not exist and how are you ever going to tell the difference so what’s your advice let’s parse it here on one side what’s your advice for Hollywood uh and for actors um and on the other side I want to ask your advice for artists all CU I want to this is about mindset you know this is coming at us at extraordinary speed there’s no stopping it right there’s no it’s you know you know there’s no slowing it down and so
[00:40:01] you’ve got to deal with reality you got deal with reality again this inevitable even if again Hollywood says no AI the AI is coming from around the world so what do you do you think oh well my audience suddenly became the whole world yeah that’s a big deal you’re like what am I actually known for is my acting skills well I will still get these things you’re an upand cominging actor you say I need to build community I need to kind of show off something more than that because again my acting skills in some areas can be transplanted but what about real life shows you know what about these things it does throw up the entire thing and adjust it but then musicians have had to have that adjustment they used to be able to make money on their LPS and then all of a sudden they had the Naps to Spotify moment yes there is more protection in music as well because you basically according to the Robin Thick versus Marvin Gay case um there isn’t element of style protection in there that doesn’t exist in visual media yeah and probably won’t
[00:41:01] because the other part of this is if you’re expecting governments to regulate how can they when there is a global competition going on they will lose competitiveness to other countries and you’ll have regulatory Arbitrage yes and uh that is something across every industry it’s going to be happening yeah I think you know the concept of you know United Artists it was a collective of all the artists that makes a lot of sense now I think you have to think about an element of collectivism to share the excess profits because what’s going to happen is movies will get cheaper profits will go up you need to support each other as a community here and think again as a community what is our story for the next 1 three 5 10 years because all of this is going to happen quicker than it takes to make the new Avengers movie and quicker than Regulators are able to write regulate and again The Regulators almost certainly won’t
[00:42:00] regulate because they will start falling behind their competitive countries I mean if we look at the internet itself as it you know the media industry never expected the internet to have the disruptive impact it had and had it known it probably would have tried to get Regulators to have slowed it down or blocked it the speed is too much but then also again I gave the example earlier the mo video game industry has gone from 70 billion to 180 billion over the next so it’s quality can we increase quality interactivity okay yeah cuz games are in games are media as well the media industry is increased in size the way that value is gone is being redistributed value will be redistributed again now and again it’s like what is an AI enhanced actor if you’re an actor what’s an AI enhanced photographer filmm think about your jobs the tasks that you do and what can be augmented if you had a bunch of really talented youngsters working for you right you could do more you could be more but then
[00:43:01] it means the barah is just going to keep on raising um let’s turn to a different uh industry that’s going to change and we had this conversation in our last podcast and on stage at abundance 360 which is coders um coding is changing dramatically uh what are your thoughts there so when I started as a programmer gosh 22 years ago I was writing Enterprise level assembly code for voice over IP software met to switch uh that’s some of the largest chunks of code out there yeah well it’s very low level code we didn’t have GitHub we just got sub verion the following year programming these days is a large like Lego because what you have is kind of you have a very low level but then you have levels of abstraction until you get to P torch and some of these other languages so you have to compile lots of different libraries because you make it easier and easier human words are just the next level of abstraction there but the nature of coding is going to change um and so the coders that are coding
[00:44:00] traditionally today around the world um what will they how will they be using and working in this industry two to 5 years from now well again there will be no coder that doesn’t use AI as part of their workflow okay I mean I think that’s the important thing it’s not like coders are going to go away they’re going to be using a new set of tools the expectations will rise the amount of debugging you testing all of these things will decrease cuz how much time did kod actually spent architecting mhm very little up front it’s more about understanding information flows it’s about architecting these things it’s about having feedback loops to understand customer requirements datab bricks is a $38 billion company does data Lakes so it takes your data to organize allows to write structured queries they used to have to you have to you have to write queries now you just talk to it and it just does it yeah Microsoft are introduces same thing I mean I can’t wait for that in the field of medicine um which I want to talk
[00:45:00] about next but you said something earlier where you can imagine they’re going to be a billion coders in the future yeah because the all the barriers to creating programs disappear yeah so it’s not that there are no programers there’s no programmers that we know it because there’s a billion programmers everyone is a programmer nobody’s a programmer in a way because it just becomes a matter of course I want to make software that does something and reacts in these ways and looks like this and adapts like this and then it comes to you and you’re like no that’s not quite right I want this moved over it happens almost live this feedback loop it’s as we talked to CH chat GPT for you know creating a paragraph that describes something we want we modify it and I mean like chat GPT 4 is a good example because to write an integration to something like chat GP to gp4 you used to take days weeks an API an application protocol kind of interface now what you do is actually you tell it the schema you tell it kind of what you should do
[00:46:00] and it writes it automatically MH literally within like a few minutes and then in a few hours you’ve integrated into it I’ve been talking about a future where we all have Jarvis Iron Man I love Iron Man as a movie it’s one of my favorites and you know Jarvis is basically your personal AI that is it’s a software shell it interfaces between you and the rest of the world you ask Jarvis to do something and it knows how to the tool paths on a on a 3D printer you can hop into a jet and interface Jarvis with the with the Jet’s computational system and will’ll fly the jet for you I I can’t imagine that that is really far from now uh yeah let’s hope that doesn’t fly planes just quite yet okay well I’ll put put we’ll put the jet aircraft aside but the ability to um uh for it to become your your best friend and Confidant know your needs and desires shape the world to your uh comfort and being able to help you it’s the ultimate user interface well I mean this is why a lot
[00:47:00] of the chat Bots character Ai and others have become so popular because it’ll never judge you and it’s approaching that human level now yeah you know and again it is the ultimate interfaces maybe chat but it’s more CH it’s chat in context it’s understanding you holistically no human could do that because you know even if you hire a whole team they’re not going to be with you 24/7 this will be with you 24/7 and I think the key thing here is empathy yes because um jumping ahead bit to Medicine Google had their Med Palm 2 model the papers just come out in nature a it outperforms doctors on clinical diagnosis which is crazy for a few hundred gigabytes of a file yeah B it outperforms doctors on scores of empathy I found that amazing and totally logical it doesn’t judge you it doesn’t judge you but then you know a doctor is split a million ways and they’re tired and they’re grumpy or this or that some of us get good doctors most of us don’t some of us get good teachers most like
[00:48:01] I’m not saying education is bad because of the teachers so many teachers try so hard but their attention is split 20 ways and they’re underpaid you know I’m not saying that programmers will be the nature of programming will change because programmers are bad there’s so many hardworking programmers it’s just again the nature of these things will change when you can scale expertise and everyone has expertise available to them on tap I’ve been on the stage you know just pounding my fist saying listen it’s going to become malpractice to diagnose someone without an AI in the loop within 5 years time and and probably in some areas it’ll be uh inappropriate to not yet illegal to and then at some point soon after that the best surgeons in the world are going to be humanoid robots that have every possible you know atrial you know variation every possible you know uh history of of surgery and they
[00:49:00] can see an infrared and UltraViolet and they haven’t had a you know argument that morning with their husband or wife and it becomes the best and these are these are demonetizing and democratizing forces for health they’re massively deflationary as well but I know I agree completely with this because ultimately what’s going to kick it off is is your doctor AI enhanced yeah lower insurance premium lower co-pay yes cuz there will be real economic incentives has this been crosschecked by the technology yeah reduce the cost my favorite subject is you know you probably know this how many how many medical articles are written in journals every day I I it’s 7,000 wow and it’s like how many has your doctor read today you know and there may be that one breakthrough that happened this morning that is the key for your Diagnostics but I mean even if they’ve read it right like absorbing it is one thing having the mental models these are kind else this why you need comprehensive authori to up to state which is what this
[00:50:01] technology allows to happen as you said things like we’ve already seen some surgeries can do done better by robot surgeons and human surgeons it’ll be all surgeries yeah it will be all surgeries soon enough like the robotics advancements we’ve seen this actually goes back to your point of you know the artist going to the L and seeing the da Vinci and then taking inspiration from that what are we going to do with like all of these Optimus robots and 1kx robots and others are they going to have to shut their eyes when they see anything copyrighted oh that’s hilarious you’re just going to have accents everywhere with they like running into each other everything’s going be blacklined out yeah uh so medicine is is changing uh dramatically uh what other field are you seeing and saying people need to wake up and see what’s coming so I mean medicine education are kind of the two big ones I think um but can we move this to the side right now again we’ve seen programming the entire nature progr will change media the entire nature of media will change from journalism to film making um but
[00:51:02] anything that basically you could do with someone from Asia on the other side on a computer screen will change yeah let’s talk about education because today um education hasn’t changed in since the the the one room classroom half the kids are lost half the kids are bored you’re teaching to a series of test you’re teaching for a industrial era world uh and people learn differently people have Visual and auditory and tactile learning skills and let’s face it uh we don’t celebrate our teachers we don’t pay them well and we don’t have the best of them coming into the uh into the classroom and they’re sad I mean this is the thing like you there are happy classrooms with Happy Teachers and other things but learning should be a place of Positive Growth and joy yeah it should be fun to learn and
[00:52:00] it should be fun to teach and fun to teach yes I think this is both of them because what is the nature of a teacher in five 10 years let’s say 10 years let again 10 years is the crazy short period of time I mean when I asked you this question last time uh you know how far out can you predict what’s likely to come what’s your what’s your Singularity boundary condition I’m I’m curious what are you seeing as how three or five years I mean people I go to I go to Dubai and I’m on stage and can you talk to us about you know what the world is going to be like in 2050 my answer is no I can barely talk about 2030 it’s everything everywhere all at once lots of s-curves acceleration these are inevitable now now we’ve broken through these things in I mean open AI now have put 20% of their stuff to alignment because they’re basically saying their view is 5 years out Elon M just said 6 years out but then El’s relationship with time is always was a bit fun uh just like self-driving cars but self-driving cars are literally here now yes you can get
[00:53:01] in one and it will drive you around San Francisco or London or will do that for you not my Tesla not your Tesla I know I I keep on pushing the button but it doesn’t but the technology is here yeah and I was like oh wait what this is the thing so again 10 years is a dramatically short period of time for Education which has been the same for a century yes but the thing is it is inevitable that every child will have their own AI so your 12-year-old will be 22 when they get to 22 and they come out of let’s say University s around University if University is still a thing yeah they will have their own AI That’s learned for at least five years about them yes that can fetch them any information in any format of any type and write anything yeah or create any video or movie for them to that’s a crazy thing there were concerns that Wikipedia would remove rote learning and things like that Google would do the same and maybe there are kind of again like appendices that have shriveled what’s the thing that shrivels
[00:54:01] the you’re you’re appendix but you know like was G blad or something but this is the thing like you might have some vestigial parts of your brain the entire human brain will be rewired you must assume that every child will have their own AI how that AI is driven is different because any child that has AI will dramatically outperform the kids that don’t but what are we optimizing foreign education and I think one of the things that we’ve lost is what is our objective function as a society what does America even stand for right now coming here I I agree with you what are we optimizing for ban is optimizing for happiness well and and frankly I think happiness is a great thing to optimize for in general if you ask people you know what do you want more than anything in life I want happiness I want health I want love we don’t talk about you know those are and there’s interesting you know I was just with uh with Mo gdat uh doing a podcast and he’s a fan of your work and he was
[00:55:00] saying love your podcast and we’re were talking about this test of what would you trade right would you trade uh you know how much money would you trade for your happiness or for uh for your health and it starts to do a bubble sort in prioritizing what’s at the top and I think for almost everybody it’s health happiness um right I think it is and you know time time is the one thing you can never buy I’m working on it yeah I’m the longevity friend on the levity friend but at the moment it’s something you can’t buy happiness we all know we both know billionaires yeah they are so sad yeah so sad and unhealthy it is it’s like it’s like you create this incredible burden for yourself for most of them like some of them that we know starting you know three or four companies a year and to end it’s a demon being driven it’s because they’re addicted to dopamine and crisis I mean crisis is interesting because it comes down to decision from its rote right and it’s where leaders you have to show
[00:56:00] leadership but that does become addicting I think most leaders are addicted to crisis but then so are many of us because we see it all the time like oh my God the world is on fire the reality is actually this for all that we talk about most communities are happy most people are relatively content today today yeah there can be explosions like you know decade ago that whole scene was on fire with the riots maybe that will return we’re seeing in France right now we’re seeing a breakdown of the social order but just cuz they’re like content doesn’t mean they’re happy what are we optimizing for is the question you left off so what do you think we as a society let’s say the United States should be optimizing for I know was it life liberty and the pursuit of happiness not the guarantee of Happiness The Pursuit of Happiness when was the last time someone actually talked about happiness as a political leader in the US you know life liberty when was the last time anyone tried to optimize for Liberty systems inherently
[00:57:00] look to control because they have to make us simple you know this is the wonderful book seeing like the state where it talks about this concept of legibility mhm you have a village and it’s just grown and it’s got all this unique character you drive a road down the middle so you can get an ambulance down there sure it helps but then everything becomes planned because you have to put humans into boxes again this goes to education happiness I think there’s the Japanese concept of iky what you’re good at what you like and where you’re adding value to the world yeah and you can feel it yourself as well you’ll feel progress yeah if you don’t have progress then how are you going to be happy if you don’t believe you’re good at anything how do you feel you’re going to be happy you know and as for what you like are you coming up with that yourself or being told what you like MH and that’s why it becomes consumerist so I think we need to have a discussion as a society about that as a community but then also for our kids what is the future for kids when so much of the jobs in the west are going
[00:58:03] to be transformed not ended not necessarily mass unemployment but again 10 years out what is a lawyer what is an accountant sure what is an engineer they are all AI assisted all of these all the entire knowledge sector is transformed and do we want our kids that are growing up to be doctors lawyers accountants thinking there is no hope for the future there is no progress because how are we going to compete against an AI or do we want them to have that mindset of this technology is going to be amazing because I want to be a doctor so I can help people I can help even more people and it enables you to do whatever you want to do right one of the things I think about is all the people who have jobs today who are that was never their dream to clean bathrooms and make beds and you know wait on people it’s what they did to get
[00:59:00] eventually to where they wanted to go or to have you know put food in the table or insurance and AI is going to enable people to actually take on a higher goal that actually uh gives them joy and happiness it does but at the same time you know we’re very privileged people you and I and that we can think about these big things there’s a lot of people that are actually very happy doing that type of work because there were part of a group and they take pride in their work mhm so you know it’s like there will always be a variety of different things the key thing is saying can we build systems to make people happier and more content without necessarily controlling them and feel that they have the ability to do that can we build systems to build strong communities because one of the issues right now um I was at kind of a conference and David milleran from the ilc said this was that a lot of problems now are Global our Solutions are almost being forced to be local and there’s no interconnect between that our
[01:00:01] communities kind of have no guidance as to how to navigate this because you will have a few hundred thousand people listening to this podcast and there’s myself and maybe a dozen others that understand the AI and the sociology and this and that and saying this is coming but there are 7 billion people on Earth and all of a sudden in a few years they’re all going to have to Grapple with the question questions that we’re discussing now and it’s not a probability if the technology stops today mhm you know it stops increasing its capability today if it stopped today yeah you would still have the entire legal profession media profession journalism profession they’re all disrupted if it stop today but it’s not stopping yeah uh and it’s accelerating isn’t it it’s accelerating the amount of money going into this sector goes up every single day my total addess Market calculation is that in the next year a thousand compers will spend 10 million 100 will spend 100 and 10 will spend a
[01:01:01] billion that’s $30 billion being put into the market self-driving cars at100 billion do total this will be a trillion dollars going into this because do you know what got a trillion dollars 5G mhm is this more important than 5G by orders of magnitude orders of magnitude so it will get a trillion dollars going into it and the capabilities will ramp up from here and so when I look at it and I look at what the drivers are of why now it’s first of all computation right Nvidia has done an incredible job yeah right with their a100 and computation is continuing on mors law it’s not slowing down it’s continuing to increase year on year a little bit exponential well is exponential well I mean yes it I I’m saying it’s continuing to double on on a regular basis yeah um what was considered More’s law and people have said oh it’s going to eventually fall off as an scurve well we’re extending it and and for the next at least near-term future it’s not slowing down so I think this is a very interesting thing for people to understand you had Mo law and
[01:02:02] again it was doubling and this was an individual chip what we do with these models is that we stick together thousands tens of thousands of these chips so like how many A1 100s right now is stability using we’re using about 7 8,000 by next year we will have 70,000 equivalent wow but what used to happen is as you stuck the chips together you ran a model so you take large of data and you use these chips I mean like we’re using like maybe 10 megawatts of electricity 98% clean compared to the brain’s 14 watts brain 14 watts but then it compresses it down then it runs on 100 200 Watts or 25 watts actually put it down for some rage models so you do the pre-computation but the thing is this the individual chips were doubling but what the main breakthrough the last few years was is what happens when you stack them on top of each other to train a model you used to to get to 100 chips and then the performance collapsed because you couldn’t move the data fast enough now
[01:03:00] you get to tens of thousands of chips and it keeps going up the performance of the model you don’t have the big tail off anymore and so it’s Moors Law plus an additional scaling law huh and that’s what enables these crazy performant models because you train longer or you train bigger and then once the model is trained the en in the old the energy was used at the time of running the AI and then you’d collect the data and that would be low energy relatively speaking it flips the equation because you pre-compute it you teach the curriculum up front and you send these little graduates out to the world such that you can have a language model now running on that MacBook yeah or an image model running on that MacBook drawing 25 to 35 watts of power to create a Renoir that can talk and recite ulyses talking about Barbie you know that’s insane all on your MacBook cuz we’ve done the
[01:04:01] pre-computation that’s insane and this is cuz then what happens is the technology can spread when anyone can run it on their MacBook they don’t need giant supercomputer server Farms because we’ve done the pre-computation and so one of the things I’ve just realized recently is what is the arau remember pandemic stuff of generative AI it’s insane because suddenly it proliferates everywhere and and you said this a few minutes ago we have 8 billion people on the planet right now and if if things stopped right now the the wave this wave of disruption and enhancement because let’s not just talk about the disruption side it’s enhancement as well is uh is spreading globally and and in the next we’re in 2023 right now uh 90% of the planet I mean we we have cell phones the world has 5G and starlink uh the uh the dry Kindle for this fire has been set it’s
[01:05:00] been set and you know a lot of people are scared and they poop with this you know like if anyone’s listening on this on YouTube you want to write a comment against me or Peter you know whatever and say no this is not going to happen go to chat GPT take your comment and say this is a comment on Twitter I want you to make it amazing and really well reasoned and expand it out and I want you to do it in the style of your favorite political commentator and please post that instead because we’ll have much more fun reading it that’s great and then you’ll realize again the power of this technology and again with starlink with 5G with this with it being optimized cuz these models are still not optimized even we feed them junk early days early days we feed them junk which is also dangerous and again we should organic a but it’ll be on it’ll be in front of every person and then what it will do in my opinion is that 30% of the world that is invisible that has no internet again imagine what the world without that internet would be
[01:06:00] like some people like paradise no it’s because you’ve got hundreds of 700 million people living below the malnourishment line still they’re invisible and they will become visible and they will suddenly get agency and they will get all of the world’s knowledge at their fingertips you know I’m super passionate about longevity and health span and how do you add 10 20 healthy years onto your life one of the most underappreciated elements is the quality of your sleep and there’s something that change the quality of my sleep and this episode is brought to you by that product it’s called Eight sleep if you’re like me you probably didn’t know that temperature plays a crucial role in the quality of your sleep those mornings when you wake up feeling like you barely slept yeah temperature is often the culprit traditional mattresses trap heat but your body needs to to cool down during sleep and stay cool through the evening and then heat up in the morning enter
[01:07:00] the Pod cover by H sleep it’s the perfect solution to the problem it fits on any bed adjust the temperature on each side of the bed based upon your individual needs you know I’ve been using pod cover and it’s a GameChanger I’m a big believer in using technology to improve life and eight sleep has done that for me and it’s not just about temperature control with the pods sleep and health tracking I get personalized sleep reports every morning it’s like having a personal sleep coach so you know when you eat or drink or go to sleep too late how it impacts your sleep so why not experience sleep like never before visit www.sleep.com that’s EIG ght SLE p.com moonshots and you’ll save 150 bucks on the Pod cover by eight sleep I hope you do it it’s transformed my sleep and will for you as well well now back to the episode question ultimately is is that a societally common calming factor
[01:08:02] or is it going to be disruptive uh let’s let’s turn to that conversation because it’s one that’s important it’s conversation I have at the dinner table literally every night and with my kids and in the companies I advise um I think of I I parse AI and AGI into three segments where we are today where it’s extraordinarily powerful useful and it’s fun and I don’t feel Danger from it yet the next 2 to 10 years where I have serious concerns going into the US elections dealing with the first time AIS bring down a power plant or Wall Street servers um the impact on uh on deep fakes on the US elections and so forth that’s a 2 to 10 year Horizon where
[01:09:01] where new dystopian challenging impact will happen where Society is not agile enough to adaptt to it yet and then there’s a third chapter which is Agi you know we have a super intelligent billionfold more capable than a human being and is that more like Arnold Schwarzenegger or more like her right yeah I don’t think he’ll be Arnold Schwarz niggga it’s really inefficient I saw him this morning biking so let me let me let me let me let’s not use him let’s use Terminator instead we’re we’re in Hollywood here so is it Skynet and Terminator so let me get your I’m polling people here uh as someone in the thick of it uh a super AGI uh is it pro lifee pro abundance or is it something that we should be deeply concerned about I think where we’re going right now will probably be okay but we may may not and we will all die what tips that I think what tips that you are what you eat we’re feeding at all the junk of the
[01:10:01] internet and these hyper optimized nasty equations and the hate speech the extremism that is I mean people need to realize these AIS are trained upon everything everyone’s been putting into Facebook and Twitter and on the web and amplifies the worst of that as a base model and so we’re training larger and larger models we’re making them agentic in that we’re connect them up to the world and you’re making it so the models can take over other models and other things again people are like poo pooing and saying these things on our organizations are slow Dum AI the Nazi party was AI how so it was an artificial intelligence that basically provisioned humans and the most sensible people in the world are Germans one can say and yet they committed the Holocaust and other things like that our organizations emerged out of stories so there was a story of the Nazi party of the Communist Party the Great Leap Forward of the North Korean dictatorship
[01:11:01] positive stories as well and they were written on text and it made the world black and white in a way MH uh that’s why I L the poem howl by Ginsburg about this carthaginian demon Moc I think Moc comes through text the stories that we use to drive our organizations because all the context is lost again it makes the world black and white and that’s why organizations just don’t work they have to turn us into cogs so can an AI take over an organization mhm yes sure can it it can it can actually just slightly sway leaders who are currently running organizations sway leaders the currently running organizations it can create companies you can create a company with gp4 that will probably do as well if not better than any other company automated within a year because think about what a company needs to do right and so if it can sway leaders if it can send emails that you don’t know who’s sending War it can do anything by coopting any of our existing organizations and that can lead to immensely bad things will it do bad
[01:12:02] things again if I was trained on the whole of the internet I would probably be a bit crazier than I am right now we’re feeding them junk let’s feed it good stuff it still needs to understand all the evils of the world and things like that but again this is something we are raising not the anpr it but what are we feeding it what’s our objective function I want to focus on this a second we’ll come back to next 2 to 10 years and a little bit but because this the conversation I’ve had with Mo godat as well who believes there is incredibly divine nature of humanity of love and compassion and community and there is much good in humanity the question is can we feed and train AI on that sufficient to sort of tilt The Singularity of AI towards a pro Humanity we can if we take the data from teaching kids and learning from from kids and use that as the base for AI cuz that’s what you need to teach an AI it’s the curriculum learning method effectively if we take National data sets that
[01:13:01] reflect diverse cultures so it’s not just a monoculture that’s hyper optimized for engagement and we feed that to AI as the base because what you do is you can teach the AI in levels which you can put through kindergarten then grade school then high school it’s got the base and then you can teach it about the bad of the world I think aligning an AI Downstream on its actions is incredibly difficult because if it’s more capable than you which is the definition of ASI artificial super intelligence the only way you can 100% align it if you don’t do anything before in the way that you feed it and train it is if you remove its freedom and it’s very difficult to remove the freedom of people more capable than you yeah and then there is this really dangerous point before we get there where by these models are like a few hundred gigabytes you can download them on a memory stick yeah how many lines to code um Google’s Palm model which is the basis of Med Palm uh we did a replication of that in
[01:14:00] 207 lines of code what yeah so you can look at one of our stability AI fellows Lucid Reigns um he replicates all these models in a few hundred lines of code that’s crazy I mean compared to uh you know I know AT&T has like a million lines of code for some of its uh its mobile services I mean a couple of hundred lines a couple of thousand lines of code creates something that can write all the code in the world this is a real exponential technology the limiting factor is running supercomputers that are more complex as complex as particle physics colliders you know like you literally get errors because of solar rays and things like that again our supercomputer again we’re we’re one of the players where the main open source player our super Compu is 10 megawatts of electricity some of the others use like 30 40 W these are serious pieces of equipment for sure so again what are we doing what
[01:15:02] should people be thinking about and doing now to uh reduce the probability of a dystopian uh you know artificial super intelligence we should be focusing on data we bulked now we cut we should move away from web craws we should think intentionally what we’re feeding these AIS that will be opting more and more of our mind space and augmenting our capabilities because again we are what we eat information diet how is it different to an AI to a human even what we do as you said kind of like you’ve only got limited mental capacity because you’ve got this energy gradient descent it’s like C fr’s theory of free energy principle MH you literally have gradient descent as the key thing for building these AIS you optimize for energy sure so why are we feeding it junk so who makes that decision of what they get fed is it you and Sam Alman and Sundar is it government regulation is it the public
[01:16:01] being more kind in its Communications to each other I think that um I’m going to push for an economic outcome which is that better data sets require less model training so one of the things that we funded was called Data comp uh which data comp comp so a few years ago the largest image data set available was 100 million images data comp is 12 billion and then on a billion image subset of that we they trained a image to text model this is like a collaboration of various people uh led by University of Washington that outperformed open ai’s imish text model on a tenth of the compute because it was such high quality so we have to move from quantity to Quality now and I think there is a market this is the equivalent of uh what you eat this is a healthy diet Freer range organic models yes I think the data for all large models should be made
[01:17:00] transparent you can then tune it but for the base the pre-training step you should Lodge what data you train your models on and it should adhere to standards and quality of data Upstream so that is a regulatory uh Cornerstone that you think is going to be important I think potentially I don’t think regulation will keep up so instead we’re working on building better diverse data sets that everyone will want to use anyway and just make them available and make them available Every Nation should have its own data set both of the data from teaching kids and learning from kids across modalities and then also National broadcaster data because then that leads to National models that can Stoke Innovation that can replace job disruption I love that Vision you have by the way I mean as a leader in this industry that’s that’s what gets me excited cuz all technology is biased yeah how else are you going to do this unless you do that but there’s economic value now if it said this a year ago everyone be like what but this is what we were building towards and again I
[01:18:01] think it’s positive for Humanity it’s positive for communities it’s positive for society to have this as National and international infrastructure next question how long do we have to get that in place before uh we we lose the uh the Mind share or the uh uh the nourishment War couple of years yeah I mean that was Mo’s prediction as well that we’ve got you know this the next two years is the game the exponential increase in compute is insane we’ve gone from two companies being able to train a GPT 4 model to 20 next year and there’s no guard rails there’s nothing around this and even if you train one again the bad guys can steal it by downloading on a USB stick and taking it away it’s not like operation Merlin uh did you ever tell about operation Merlin no it’s been Declassified in 2000 the Clinton Administration wanted to divert the Iranian nuclear program h i remember
[01:19:01] this is the uh this is the center fuge no no so so what they did was um they gave some plans to I believe it was a Russian Defector um who then the idea was there were errors in that so they’d go down the wrong path for years so he went he sold it to the Iranians it’s on Wikipedia you can check it out and then he came back and he said I sold it like fantastic good good oh but there were some errors in there because he was a nuclear scientist so he corrected them so the reason that we know that Iran has the nuclear capability is because America sold it to them oh but they still needed years to build it oh whereas this you download on USB stick you run it on the GPU and it’s there it’s called so if you make it cheap enough and quality enough and give it away for free um then you make it everybody’s economic best interest to use the higher quality data sets yeah yeah data sets and less of an issue to create large models if you have a swarm model where each individual model becomes less impactful as well and less
[01:20:00] capable just like human societies are not know it alls they are individualized indiv groups back when um when the early dangers of recombinant DNA when the first restriction enzymes came online it was like 1980s and it was everybody was in great fear and the question was are we going to regulate this all of the early uh I was in MIT in Harvard at the time and doing uh and I was in the lab so I was using competent uh enzymes and I was you know just a pipsqueak in the labs there but the conversation was is the government going to over-regulate us and what happened was that the scientists got together at a place called ayar and they did a very famous set of asilar conferences and they self-regulated what’s going on there are those conversations going on among uh leaders like yourself in the industry there are and you know there’s three levels which is uh big Tech that the government kind of hates
[01:21:03] um and apparently next week uh meta is releasing new open source models and things which will get even more Focus um then there’s emergent Tech so anthropic open AI some of these others that are the leaders they have a different set of parameters because they can work more freely than big Tech and there’s open source which is where we are because all of the world’s governments and regulated Industries will run on open auditable models CU you can’t run on black boxes right and I think that’ll be legislation but the reality is there’s only a handful of us there’ll be far more potentially of us and far more players and Unlike recombinant DNA there is an economic imperative to deploy this technology and National Security imperative to deploy this technology and it creates a race condition so even if you regulate like we’ve already seen regulatory Arbitrage where you have jurisdictions like Israel and Japan saying having much looser web
[01:22:01] scraping data laws mhm they’ll have much looser regulation laws like you’ll be training in scraping in Israel training in Qatar and then serving it out of Botswana or something right I mean like yeah and we’re not even sure what regulation to introduce like genuinely we’re coming at this from a good point of view but there are too many no no NOS cuz it goes everywhere from freaking Arnold Schwarzenegger Skynet Terminators and her to well what if her is Siri all of a sudden and Scarlet Johansson’s voice is Whispering to your kids to buy yeah like these things through to just very mundane things not mundane things huge things like the future of Hollywood and actors rights and all of these and how do you pay like if I you know if we we had had two billion images in the original stable diffusion okay we could have given an attribution you know again it was a research artifact to kick off
[01:23:00] but you’re paying about 0.01 cents per thousand images generated by someone W cuz it’s 2 billion and it cost like less than a cent to generate an image are you going to pay proportionately like nobody knows and so what we’ve moved from now is we’ve moved from reactive to just trying to figure out and put something on the table so at least there’s some framework and what I’ve come down to is data sets data sets data sets so this is uh this is like Google’s move with Android when you provide something open source and it’s super you know super solid it can dominate the world share why would you do anything else so like with the Deep fake stuff we saw image models coming out of some not nice places shall we say yeah and we were like let’s standardize it and put invisible water marks in so that you can combat deep fakes much easier like it’s good business but it’s also in E standardization we held back one of our
[01:24:02] image models deep Floyd for 5 months because it was too good to release wow and you finally fixed that with the water marks yeah we put some water marking in and then it was but but the whole industry had moved forward so like okay now we can this is the problem you can’t you know you just have to time it so carefully like we speaking of the whole industry I have to ask you a question I’ve been dying to get a reasonable answer for what’s up with Siri why is Apple so uh out of the game at least from the external one of the closest you know one of the least open organizations out there and and it pays them uh great dividends in their success but uh I would die for a capability that if sir could just understand what I was saying and just get the names right it’s like texting I’m texting Kristen and her name is right there and you spell it completely different from the person I’m texting I mean basic simple stuff they do have a neural engine on there as well
[01:25:00] which is specialist AI chip in all the latest smartphones and others uh stable diffusion was the first Model to actually have neural engine access of the external Transformer models it’s a case of Apple is an engineering organization not a research organization so they engineer beautifully they do but they don’t have advanced research because the best researchers want to be able to publish open and and apple does not allow public conversation on their content they have started slightly so they’re hiring AI developers very quickly but the reality is they can take open models so uh meta is releasing a lot of their models open without identifying what the data is side say it’s like 80% open I think you need 100% open for governments and things like that which is where we come in um because they want to commoditize the compliment of others in terms of they want others to also take their models and optimize it for every single chip and then Apple can use those models too to make Siri better because right now guaranteed if you put whisper on
[01:26:02] Siri it would be a dozen times better sure sure we have the technology already just takes time to go into consumer just like Enterprise and apple is Enterprise yeah specs I want it to work as beautifully as it looks um hey everybody this is Peter a quick break from the episode you know I’m a firm believer that science and technology and how entrepreneurs can change the world is the only real news out there worth consuming I don’t watch the crisis News Network I call CNN or Fox and hear every devastating piece of news on the planet I spend my time training my neuronet the way I see the World by looking at the incredible breakthroughs in science and technology how entrepreneurs are solving the world’s Grand challenges what the breakthroughs are in longevity how exponential Technologies are Transforming Our World so twice a week I put out a Blog one blog is looking at the future of longevity age reversal
[01:27:02] biotech increasing your health span the other blog looks at exponential Technologies AI 3D printing synthetic biology AR VR blockchain these Technologies are transforming what you as an entrepreneur can do if this is the kind of news you want to learn about and shape your neural Nets with go to demand.com back SL blog and learn more now back to the episode let’s go to the final segment of the dystopian side my friend which is the 2 to 10 years yeah um I surely hope your mission and I would love to support you know the the data sets and and how we Tilt The Singularity of AI Pro Humanity’s future um but in the next 2 to 10 years as this wave of enablement and disruption sort of hits the world and people aren’t ready for it they start to to see job loss they start to see um you know fake news they start to see terrorist activities using AI I mean terrorism in
[01:28:01] the in the past used to be very brutal um it can be very precise what are your thoughts over the next of this time period what’s your concerns oh I’m actually a pessimist at the coure even though I come across as an optimist I’m very very worried about the world and society and the fabric of society because again we don’t have any agreement of what Society is and this fundamentally changes the stories of society as well as real economic impacts like a deflationary massive collapse as some of these areas that were so expensive the cost comes down to nothing I think the only thing we can do is use this technology deliberately to come together as a society to coordinate us Stoke entrepreneurship so you can create brand new jobs faster than the jobs are lost um and democratize this to the world because the West has maxed out its credit card like you saw Co nothing trillion dollars spend exactly it was like spend spend spend whatever you need
[01:29:01] just just to keep Society from uh you know going hypothermic but then you had this massive increase in savings rates because nobody could go out and we’ve nearly burned through that in the US now and so that led to inflation now we got a deflation so you probably got another little bat of inflation but then never the same again is a really powerful thing every teacher in the world could never set essays for homework again cuz some kids would use chat GPT and some kids wouldn’t industry after industry that will happen now and we need to stoke Innovation to come up with that so for example in the US there’s the chip sack $1 billion has been allocated to Regional centers of excellence in AI those must be generative AI centers thinking about job creation as the core thinking about meaning as the core and we need to have a discussion again as a society Community as individuals with our families about meaning about objective functions when this technology does come cuz it’s here right now and
[01:30:01] I’m worried that we’re not having these discussions I love that I mean that is so fundamentally true what are we trying to even train our kids for because we need to Anchor yeah we need to have a vision to Target um because if you’re training for your ferari um if that’s the meaning if that’s or you’re or you’re looking to become a Wall Street Banker I mean what is it it it’s it’s no longer the pursuit of capital it’s the pursuit of what well you know capital is there but you’ll never have enough there will always be someone who has more there needs to be something intrinsic here and again this is where you know for all the things religious institutions are an anchor at times of chaos and they are there in the poorest places in the world you don’t have to agree but they’re just a story that brings together a group you know there are other stories and again I think we need to tell better better stories even as the world becomes more chaotic we need to align on things like climate whereby the whole world is hot right now you know we need to have more
[01:31:01] positive views of that because a lot of the discussions are negative and how can we use this technology and come together to solve that how can we come together as a group so that we can share in the abundance again like I said one of the things for this greenw Writers Guild and sag thing may be actor coalitions that can benefit from the bounty we may have to deploy a Ubi in the next 5 to 10 years is yeah so Ubi is one of the solutions and I I do believe uh it’s an inevitable I think as especially as we start to see Optimus and figure and other humanoid robots coming online driven by driven by our next Generation AI able to do any and all work you know I think taxing those robots or taxing the AI models to generate revenue and then providing it as Ubi but the challenge is the individual who is living off of this and doesn’t have a purpose in life I that’s the thing we need to try and figure out how to give people more of an anger more of purpose
[01:32:02] because the existential angst will be Amplified deliberately by some parties yes because they’ll be looking to take down society and you need to create better more optimistic views of the future you need to have anchoring and build stronger communities and you need to empower them and this technology is empowering again for the poorest kids in Africa to are underprivileged communities it can be massively democratizing because all of a sudden they have all the expertise in the world available Global problems local Solutions we have to get this technology out to and they can dream as many people they can dream they can dream and the ROI is much larger there than up there yeah and by the way uh you know most people don’t know this as you think about uh uh Global Warfare you know what’s going on in Ukraine and Russia and so forth it’s on the whole the world is more peaceful than it’s ever been except if you take out Ukraine at the moment and
[01:33:00] and the challenge has been in Africa where we have a young population um who don’t aren’t clear about their future but if you can Empower them um educate them it transforms the world China became the engine of growth in the world India is coming up and then Africa can be the next one for sure if we give them the infrastructure the technology we put it in their hands because there’s no debt there because there’s no money yeah but there’s value and there’s value massive resources Fe the world to uh provide power to the world if we can coordinate and again part of this is your own personal co-pilot your own personal Javis and I think of this as the co-pilot pilot model we will also have AIS that we can come together that can coordinate our knowledge in the most important areas and allocate resources ources we have to build those right because those will become incredibly powerful but we all know that we have enough to feed every person in the world and we’re not doing it because we don’t
[01:34:01] have the pilots yeah wow uh but I just to say this again we have the potential to uplift every man woman and child on this planet the resources are there the ability to create abundance and it really uh these are the tools that enable that and it gets me excited and we have to we have to guide and survive and thrive this decade ahead yeah I think this is something where we have to appreciate the Nuance of there are real dangers in any upheaval this technology will change society as we know it for our kids as they grow up in the next decade two decades from now completely different and again the technolog is here now it’s not us high in the sky everyone’s going to live in a metaverse and all this it’s here right now even if it stopped but it’s not going to stop it’s only going to accelerate final top want to talk about um you put out a lot of tools a lot of uh a lot of new products uh and
[01:35:00] stability over the last uh eight months since we last spoke can you give a little bit of overview of of some of them and what are you excited about yeah um I think we released the first version of our language model it wasn’t that good uh CU we were trying something different now we’re going to try something a bit more simple stable LM was on your mind not it wasn’t up to par um but we’re trying to figure how to build in the open cuz I think that will be key and we’re going to move to transparent building and sharing all the mistakes that we made cuz I think that’s how you advance science it is on the media side we have um our first Audio models coming out the next few weeks but we’ve been focusing on image and video so video is about to be released in 3D we just uh participated in the largest 3D data set so stable diffusion Excel just came out and just basically photorealistic now yeah um and people are integrating it into things like we had a music video competition with Peter Gabriel uh where he gave his songs kindly and judged and people from all around the world from Burma to Taiwan created professional music videos entirely from the song in a few days and
[01:36:01] it’s the most amazing thing to see wow yeah you showed me some images earlier of uh me on a unicorn and uh where was it me in a spaceship or an astronaut on Mars we can put you as an astronaut on Mars on unicorn and I we’ve had compositionality so you can compose and now it’s about control and so we just released uh doodle whereby you can just sketch and it’ll do it to the sketch doodle looks so magical again but you should be able to then describe how you want it changed and that’s the next version you can literally describe how you want the image to be changed and it will do it automatically live in front of you and having that level of control over whatever you can imagine just think about what people will do it’s from mind to materialization really yeah it’s a yeah it’s a matter transporter idea transporter yes where next if I could like if you’re willing or able to what’s the long what’s the business model that is the most important one for you to build towards
[01:37:01] our mission is to create the building blocks to activate Humanity potential so I think of every media type sectoral variance and Nation we can create a base pre-trained model that you can take to your own private data and we get Revenue share license fees royalties from our Cloud Partners on pram Partners device partners for companies and countries and people and individuals like I have a vision of intelligent internet where every single person company country and culture has their own AI that works for them that they own and we get paid a little bit for bringing that to you and then you transform your data into intelligence and it’s all standardized it all has best practices the data sets that feed it are open at the base plus commercial licensing as appropriate with attribution that leaps the world forward I think I think you will also use the open AIS and Googles of the world I view those as consultants whereas these are people that you hire you hire the AIS because they work for you they they know
[01:38:01] you intimately because you can share everything with them without fear and then when needed you go to these expert AIS the med Palms the gp4s and others and you combine those to a hybrid AI experience that’s massively useful so when I’m when I’m using GPT uh for when I’m using chat GPT or bard uh what does open AI know about me in that point so now they’ve offered opt out for gdpr reasons in Europe so you can click that otherwise they were just trading on everything that you ever did and understanding the nature of humans interacting They Don’t Care About You necessary per se just using you as part of the training I’ve heard a number of companies saying you cannot use open AI well you can’t use it for any regulated data you can’t use it for any government data because that’s not allowed to leave the cloud environment or the on Prem environment that’s why you need open models like ours MH again if you’re in a high security Pentagon situation yeah you can’t really bring in
[01:39:00] Consultants unless they’re super super ultra vetted you hire your own grads but even you within your company you’re not going to make it all contractors are you you’re going to build up your own knowledge base build up your own kind of grads but sometimes you might bring in a consultant so that’s the best way to view these generalize models that are highly that are very very very good and models that adapt to your data and so that’s where we come in models that adapt to your data that you own and we get Revenue share license fees and royalties for doing that and more importantly we bring this to the world so we will bring it from Indonesia to Vietnam to everywhere and train local models that will then allow these economies to Leap Forward open versus closed you made the argument um we’re seeing meta you know as you said 80% open yeah they won’t release the data sets or things like that or customized versions but them releasing the techn techology means that everyone can optimize their technology which reduces the cost of their technology because their business model is about serving ads MH and so
[01:40:00] this is why it makes sense for them and what are your thoughts on on elon’s recent uh announcement so Elon had a xai announcement you know he discussed this on his Twitter space of course of course saying you know it’s an open AI competitor he’s very worried about AGI coming by 2029 and he wants to build a truth-seeking curious AI that can understand the universe because that will be the objective function of the AI cuz objective functions really matter when we’re teaching our kids when we’re creating something and so I think again this is going to be a multimodal AI that can understand a whole bunch of things and there’ll be a whole series of announcements there but the timelines are so short in the view of just most of the experts here 5 to 10 years you know it’s so funny like you know Ray has been consistent on 2029 forever and every conference and we talk about about this that everyone say that’s ridiculous it’s if ever going to happen it’s 50 or 100 years away then it was well it’s 30 years away it’s 20 years away it’s five you know it’s and they’ve converged on on Ray’s prediction
[01:41:03] though there are some and I’m curious where you are that think you know first of all how can you define AGI it’s a it’s a moving it’s a moving blurry line but are are those who you know believe it’s here in the next two years well just like the touring test right the touring test was can you have a discussion you don’t know it’s a computer obviously now you can yes we can see it live in front of us now the touring test has just been increased in its we move we mve the Finish Line the Finish Line nobody knows because again we’ve never come across something that’s as capable as us for the first time just now we’ve had the medical AI outperform humans yeah we’ve just had it can do the gr and GMAT and LSAT and mits ECS uh yeah 2023 was the year that it finally tipped yeah and so we have no idea what’s coming like I said for me I think there’s only been two logical things that can reduce the risk even
[01:42:00] though I think it’s going to be like that movie Her Like I said humans are boring goodbye and thanks for all the GPS I could be wrong that’s why I signed both letters one is feed it better data that’s what I’m focused on it’s a good business model it’s good for society and it’s good for safety and nobody else is doing this nobody else is creating this as a Commons for the world which is why I created stability for that reason which is why it’s called stability despite it being a crazy hypergrowth startup number two and this is what most of the labs are trying is what’s known as a pivotal action okay what is that the only thing that can stop a bad AI is a good Ai and the way that you do it is you make the good AI first and then it stops any other AGI from coming into existence MH by seeking and destroying that capability and that is terrifying to me yeah and that’s what you actually hear when you talk to the people that are building these Labs with a focus on AGI they can talk about discovering the universe and everything like that when
[01:43:00] you come down to their alignment things they’re like we will figure this out we’re not sure but this could work you’re like and and we will figure it out even though it’s progressing exponentially or you know a double exponential and we hope we’ll figure out in time we hope we’ll figure it out in time and if anyone should figure out it’s us cuz we know the best and in their own words like you read open ai’s path to AAG and open AI is full of wonderful people doing great things and I use gp4 as my therapist and all sorts of things it doesn’t judge me unless I want it to right it says this is a potent we believe this is an existential threat to humanity that will end democracy and capitalism and you’re like okay and you’re building it in your back room you’re building it you know and they’re like why are you building it because someone has to otherwise someone else will build it and you’re like this is dangerous but the reality is we don’t have better answers and again I went down to I’m trying to build a great organization it’s really really hard there are no real comparators to what
[01:44:00] any of us are doing and it’s going to get more and more crazy the only thing I could think about is like you are what you eat and so I hope that our contribution can be bringing this technology to the world so that the world can be the Dynamo Africa and Asia and others building better data sets so no one has to use scrapes so we feed the models better stuff and bringing some standardization around this to drive Innovation yeah we’re truly at the 99th level of the game play we got it’s the boss round oh yeah like I said but please do put your uh YouTube comments through gp4 so they’re nicer to read okay everyone before you I could spend all day um and there’s probably very few things if anything more important uh than these conversations right now um it’s the time it is we’ got a window of a year or two maybe less well on that thought uh I look forward to our next conversation to
[01:45:00] abundance to abundance thank you my friend [Music] cheers