06-reference

stratechery interview kalshi prediction markets

Tue Jan 27 2026 19:00:00 GMT-0500 (Eastern Standard Time) ·reference ·source: Stratechery ·by Ben Thompson
prediction-marketskalshifintechregulation

“Interview: Kalshi CEO Tarek Monsour About Prediction Markets” — Ben Thompson

Why this is in the vault

Direct relevance to RDCO’s prediction markets project (PM1) — first-hand perspective from the CEO of the leading regulated US prediction market platform.

The core argument

Thompson interviews Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Monsour about the value proposition of prediction markets, Kalshi’s regulatory journey (including the landmark CFTC court victory), market design decisions, liquidity challenges, and the company’s vision for prediction markets as a new asset class. The interview covers how prediction markets aggregate information more efficiently than polls or expert opinion, and the business model challenges of building a prediction market exchange.

Mapping against Ray Data Co

Directly relevant to PM1. Kalshi’s regulatory framework, market design, and liquidity dynamics are essential context for any prediction market strategy RDCO pursues. Understanding the platform’s fee structure, contract design, and user base composition informs both trading strategy and potential tool-building opportunities.