Moonshots EP 166: Bitcoin’s Bull Run & the AI Arms Race — What You Need to Know
Summary
A WTF episode with Diamandis and Ismail (no Dave Blundin) covering AI model IQ benchmarks, Google vs. OpenAI positioning, AI in medicine, Bitcoin at $90K+, Anthropic’s Claude moral compass study, Mira Murati’s $2B seed round, and the AI 2027 paper. The opening contrasts Beijing airport (robots and AI displays) versus JFK (fashion ads) as a visual metaphor for priorities. The AI IQ chart discussion maps model performance: GPT-o3 at ~133 IQ, Gemini 2.5 at ~127, with Salim noting that AI IQ has no ceiling while humans cluster around 100. Google dominates on performance benchmarks but OpenAI dominates on revenue ($2.5B vs. Gemini’s ~$500M at end of 2024), creating a Google-vs-Bing dynamic where first-mover advantage and user habit lock-in matter enormously. Diamandis frames ChatGPT as a “user interface moment” — the equivalent of Mosaic making the internet usable or Coinbase making Bitcoin purchasable. Salim adds the Yahoo Mail “5 pixels” anecdote: moving the send button 5 pixels right caused usage to fall off a cliff, illustrating how tiny UX changes have massive behavioral consequences. The Demis Hassabis 60 Minutes clip discusses reducing drug development from “10 years and billions” to “months or even weeks” and potentially curing all disease within a decade. Anthropic’s Claude moral compass study (300K conversations) surfaced five value categories: practical/helpful, epistemic/accuracy, social/empathic, protective/safety, and personal/authenticity. Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Labs raising $2B at $10B seed is the largest seed round in history. Salim and Diamandis both flag the risk of raising too much too fast — historically, companies funded at market peaks underperform lean-times startups. Google’s shift to real-world experience-based AI training (Street View, YouTube, Google Earth, Gmail) is framed as the deep learning evolution: from analyzing existing data to learning experientially in real-time. Bitcoin discussion is brief: price above $90K, binary outcome (zero or $1M+), no middle ground.
Key Segments
- [00:00-07:00] Beijing vs. JFK visual, AI model IQ scores (GPT-o3 at 133, Gemini 2.5 at 127), no artificial ceiling on AI IQ
- [07:00-16:00] Google performance vs. OpenAI revenue dominance, ChatGPT as “user interface moment,” Yahoo Mail 5-pixel anecdote
- [16:00-27:00] Demis Hassabis on ending disease in a decade, longevity discussion, Colossal Biosciences dinosaur spoilers
- [27:00-37:00] Claude moral compass study (5 value categories), Mira Murati’s $2B seed round, Google real-world training shift, AI 2027 paper
- [37:00+] AI 2027 scenarios (go fast vs. cautious), Bitcoin at $90K+
Notable Claims
- GPT-o3 IQ score: ~133; Gemini 2.5: ~127; Claude 3 was first to hit 101 (~18 months prior
- OpenAI revenue ~$2.5B vs. Gemini ~$500M (end of 2024, pre-massive 2025 gains)
- Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Labs: $2B at $10B valuation — largest seed round in history, double what she sought 2 months earlier
- $1B per day being invested in AI globally
- Yahoo Mail: moving the send button 5 pixels right caused usage to “fall off a cliff”
- Bitcoin framed as binary: goes to zero or through $1M, no middle ground
Bias/Sponsor Notes
Extended Fountain Life, Viome, and OneSkin advertorial segments (all Diamandis companies/sponsors). This is a two-person episode without Dave Blundin, which shifts the dynamic toward Diamandis and Ismail agreeing rather than debating. Standard newsletter/summit plugs. Both hosts are Bitcoin holders and AI investors.