Frontier Round 9 — Part O (Slicer A of 2)

Synthesis of 6 research targets against the confidence discipline in 2026-07-20-wilson-tree-v0.md. Downgrade rules applied throughout: single FindAGrave/WikiTree CONFIRMED → PROBABLE; only primary-source verbatim quotes may stay CONFIRMED; same-compiler-twice ≠ independent corroboration; POSSIBLE-tier stays doc-only.

Headlines

• New Goodspeed generation identified in England: Roger Goodspeed's father is Robert Goodspeed of Wingrave, Buckinghamshire (bapt. 3 Aug 1578; will 15 Sept 1658, proved 13 Feb 1660/1) — sourced via G. Andrews Moriarty's 1928 NEHGR scholarly article, which extends the pedigree three further generations to ~1532 (Robert Sr + Isabel Allyn → Nicholas Goodspeed, d. 1557/58). PROBABLE tier throughout (the England→New-England bridge is inferential, not a document that itself crosses the Atlantic).
• Correction candidate: Rev. Joseph Hull's second wife is documented as AGNES, not "Jane" as currently framed in the tree doc (round 7). Two independent sources — the primary 1635 NEHGR passenger list and the Hull Family Association's vetted errors page — both name her Agnes; no source found for "Jane."
• Joanna Hull's mother (ahn 11303) resolved to NOT be Agnes: age arithmetic on the 1635 passenger list proves Agnes (b.~1610) cannot have borne Joanna (b.~1620), confirming Joanna descends from Joseph Hull's unnamed FIRST wife. Her actual name stays unknown/disputed — do not adopt "Joanna"/"Joanne" as her name.
• Sayles/Roger-Williams chain gets independent-of-Austin corroboration via a Narragansett Historical Register article (1884-85) citing a 1702 Providence deed naming Mary [Williams] as mother of John Sayles Jr. Strengthens without proving the chain — stays PROBABLE, never CONFIRMED per standing rule. An unverified gravestone claim (naming Catharine's father as "Richard Sayles" instead of John) surfaced from an already-caught-fabricating source — logged as an open contradiction, not adjudicated.
• Rev. James Morgan Jr.'s pension S7251 read in full: confirms his own birth (26 Apr 1760, Baltimore Co MD) but the pension text never names his father — the hypothesized link to James Morgan Sr (ahn 414) stays circumstantial/unconfirmed.
• Richard Wilson's Iredell Co. 1800 census entry visually confirmed on the primary microfilm image (not just a transcription) — the entry is real, but identification with our ahn-64 ancestor remains unproven; age-bracket data illegible on this scan.
• Richard Hull's (ahn 45208) own parents remain a genuine hard stop — exhaustive search of Somerset wills, visitations, and VCH Crewkerne found nothing; flagged a same-name-contamination trap (an unrelated "Richard Hull 1515–1587") to avoid merging.

VIZ-CHANGES

1. ahn 11302 (Rev. Joseph Hull) — UPDATE_STORY — field: second_wife_name New value: "Agnes (not 'Jane' as previously on file) — per 1635 Weymouth passenger list, NEHGR Vol. 25 (Jan 1871), p.13, verbatim: 'Agnis hall his Wife aged 25 y[ea]r[s]'; independently corroborated by Hull Family Association's vetted errors page: 'It is well documented that the given name of his second wife was Agnes, but her surname is unknown.' No source found this round or in the tree doc's history for 'Jane.'" Confidence: CONFIRMED (name itself, from a primary 1635 document, corroborated by a second independent source) Rationale: Two independent sources agree on Agnes; the site's current "Jane" appears unsourced. Founder should confirm where "Jane" originated before this overwrites it.

2. ahn 11303 (Unknown — first wife of Rev. Joseph Hull, mother of Joanna Hull ahn 5651) — UPDATE_STORY — field: identity_status New value: "Resolved (by age arithmetic on the primary 1635 NEHGR passenger list) that Joanna Hull's mother is Joseph Hull's FIRST, unnamed wife — NOT second wife Agnes, who was only 25 in 1635 and thus could not have borne Joanna (b.~1620), Joseph Jr. (b.~1622), or Tristram (b.~1624), all listed ahead of her on the same passenger manifest. The first wife's own name is unconfirmed and disputed: one secondary blog cites 'Narragansett Historical Register Vol. I' for the name 'Joanna'/'Joanne,' but the same blog notes Robert Charles Anderson (Great Migration series) states there is no evidence for that name. Do NOT adopt 'Joanna'/'Joanne' as her confirmed name — classic same-name mother/daughter conflation risk." Confidence: PROBABLE (exclusion of Agnes is airtight arithmetic on primary data; overall entry stays PROBABLE because her actual identity remains unnamed) Rationale: Resolves round 7's open question "which wife bore Joanna" with a clear negative on Agnes.

3. ahn 1409 (Catharine Sayles) — UPDATE_STORY — field: bio New value: "Independent-of-Austin corroboration found: Narragansett Historical Register Vol. 3 (1884-85), article contributed by Fred A. Arnold, citing Providence Deeds Book II p.173, verbatim: on 10 Nov 1702 Daniel Williams (son of Roger Williams) quitclaimed to 'John Sayles, Jun., the son of his sister Mary,' 35 acres 'his grandfather, Roger Williams, had given him in his lifetime.' This confirms Mary [Williams] as sister of Daniel Williams and mother of a John Sayles Jr. via a source independent of the Austin compilations — but it names only John Sayles Jr., not Catharine, so it strengthens without proving her descent." Confidence: PROBABLE Rationale: Per tree doc, the Roger Williams descent stays ANCHORED-PER-AUSTIN and must never be presented as CONFIRMED — this is additional supporting evidence, not a closer.

4. ADD_PERSON — ahn 11296 — Robert Goodspeed (father of Roger Goodspeed, ahn 5648) b. bapt. 3 Aug 1578, Wingrave, Bucks; will 15 Sept 1658; d. between 15 Sept 1658 and proved 13 Feb 1660/1, Archdeaconry of Bucks. Confidence: PROBABLE Verbatim will (Moriarty, NEHGR Vol. 82, Oct 1928, pp.444-445, citing Archdeaconry of Bucks, 1660): "To my sons Roger, Bennett, and Thomas Goodspeed £6. 13s. 4d. each, if they or any of them return from beyond the seas within ten years after my decease... [Signed] Robert Goodspeede, his mark."

5. ADD_PERSON — ahn 11297 — Alice Harris (mother of Roger Goodspeed, ahn 5648; wife of Robert Goodspeed) m. Robert Goodspeed at Soulbury, co. Bucks, 6 Nov 1609; living 15 Sept 1658. Confidence: PROBABLE Source: Phillimore's Buckinghamshire Parish Registers, Marriages, Vol. 1, cited in Moriarty NEHGR 82 (1928) p.451. Resolves a prior "Agnes vs. Alice" flag in the working notes: the "Agnes Goodspeed" named in TNA C 5/405/103 (1649, Stoke Mandeville) belongs to a different, contemporary Robert Goodspeed (probable first cousin, bapt. Wingrave 18 Oct 1587) — not our Robert/Alice.

6. ADD_PERSON — ahn 22592 — Robert Goodspeed (Sr.) (father of ahn 11296) b. c.1532; m. Wingrave [30 Oct] 1552 Isabel Allyn; bur. Wingrave 8 Nov 1600. Confidence: PROBABLE Source: Moriarty, NEHGR 82 (1928), pedigree entry #6, Wingrave parish registers + lay subsidy rolls.

7. ADD_PERSON — ahn 22593 — Isabel Allyn (Allen) (mother of ahn 11296) m. Wingrave 1552; bur. Wingrave 9 Mar 1583/4. Confidence: PROBABLE Same source as #6.

8. ADD_PERSON — ahn 45184 — Nicholas Goodspeed (father of ahn 22592) d. between 21 July 1557 and 24 Sept 1558, Wingrave. Confidence: PROBABLE Source: Moriarty, NEHGR 82 (1928), Wingrave manorial court rolls. Wife/mother unnamed in any source found (earliest traced generation, pre-1524 lay subsidy) — do not extend further upstream without a name.

NEW-PEOPLE

• Robert Goodspeed — ahn 11296 — bapt. 3 Aug 1578 Wingrave, Bucks – d. between 15 Sept 1658 and proved 13 Feb 1660/1 — PROBABLE — Father of the immigrant Roger Goodspeed per Moriarty's 1928 NEHGR pedigree; his will (verbatim quoted above) bequeaths to sons "Roger, Bennett, and Thomas" contingent on their return "from beyond the seas," matching Roger's known 1639 Barnstable emigration.
• Alice Harris (Goodspeed) — ahn 11297 — m. 6 Nov 1609 Soulbury, Bucks – living 15 Sept 1658 — PROBABLE — Robert Goodspeed's wife per a primary parish-register marriage transcription (Phillimore); resolves a residual name-conflict with an unrelated "Agnes Goodspeed" Chancery case involving a different, contemporary Robert Goodspeed.
• Robert Goodspeed (Sr.) — ahn 22592 — b. c.1532 – bur. Wingrave 8 Nov 1600 — PROBABLE — Grandfather of the immigrant Roger; succeeded to his own father Nicholas's Wingrave lands in 1558, per Wingrave parish registers and lay subsidy rolls cited in Moriarty 1928.
• Isabel Allyn (Allen) — ahn 22593 — m. Wingrave 1552 – bur. 9 Mar 1583/4 — PROBABLE — Robert Goodspeed Sr's wife, per the same Wingrave parish-register source.
• Nicholas Goodspeed — ahn 45184 — d. between 21 Jul 1557 and 24 Sept 1558, Wingrave — PROBABLE — Earliest confidently-named Goodspeed generation, father of Robert Sr; wife/mother unnamed, do not extend further without a name.

ESTIMATES-RETIRED

None this round. All five new Goodspeed-line people are net-new additions (no prior estimated placeholder existed for them), so no eb/ed estimate on the existing tree was replaced. No estimate retirements surfaced on any of the other five targets either — the Sayles, Hull, Wilson, and Morgan investigations either produced no new hard dates or produced findings that stayed doc-only (POSSIBLE tier).

CONTRADICTIONS

• "Jane" (current site placeholder for Joseph Hull's second wife) vs. "Agnes" (two independent sources this round) — see VIZ-CHANGES #1. Recommend the founder confirm where "Jane" originated in the existing data before the correction lands.
• Unverified gravestone claim naming Catharine Sayles's father as "Richard Sayles" (touchstonetruth.com, d. 24 Feb 1753 headstone transcription: "...Younge[r]...of Mr. Richard Sayles") — would directly contradict the working John Sayles + Mary Williams parentage thesis if genuine. Source has an already-proven fabricated citation elsewhere in the same document (a nonexistent NEHGR Vol.4 p.84 reference). Logged, NOT adjudicated — needs independent Find A Grave photo or RIHS gravestone-transcription confirmation before any weight is given either way.
• Randolph County (NC) Public Library "Revolutionary Patriots" roster compiles what appear to be TWO distinct people (James Morgan Jr's 1760-Baltimore/pension biography AND a "b. circa 1729 Maryland – d. post 18 Jan 1784" entry consistent with Sr) under a single DAR ancestor row (#A132519) — internally ambiguous secondary-compiler artifact, could indicate DAR's own file cites the pension as supporting proof, or could be simple conflation. Not adjudicated; needs the underlying DAR GRS record.
• WebSearch/Geni summary of "James Morgan Sr" (b.c.1729 Rowan Co NC, d.1810, m. Mary Polly Davis 18 Jul 1754 St. George Parish, Baltimore Co MD) internally contradicts the Randolph library PDF's data for what may be the same person (birthplace Maryland vs. Rowan Co NC; death post-1784 vs. 1810). Neither source verified against a primary record — both stay quarantined/doc-only, consistent with the tree doc's existing "second James Morgan Sr conflation trap" caution.

FOUNDER-HANDS

• Order/view the full NARA pension file image for S7251 (Rev. James Morgan Jr.) via Fold3/Ancestry login, or NARA's Citizen Archivist portal — check for a family Bible record or marriage bond naming his father that Will Graves' abstract may have omitted.
• Run an interactive query against the DAR Genealogical Research System (services.dar.org) for ancestor #A132519 — a JS/session-driven form, not headless-fetchable — to see whether DAR's own patriot record cites pension S7251 as supporting proof of the Sr–Jr relationship.
• Get a higher-resolution/better-contrast image of Iredell Co. 1800 census leaf 308 (e.g., via FamilySearch's browsable NARA M32 images, login-gated) to resolve the Richard Wilson / James Wilson age-bracket columns that the archive.org microfilm scan couldn't render legibly.
• View Providence Deeds Book II, page 173 (RI State Archives or FamilySearch microfilm) — the 1702 Daniel Williams quitclaim to John Sayles Jr. — to confirm the Narragansett Historical Register's transcription and check for mention of other Sayles siblings, including a Catharine.
• FamilySearch microfilm 0022117, page 64 (Providence probate book) — the recurring top open key for the Sayles-Williams/Roger Williams closer, carried forward from round 6/8.
• FreeREG/FamilySearch account search of the St Bartholomew Crewkerne parish register (1538–1559) for Hull entries — the one unexploited lead for Richard Hull's own parents.
• Somerset Heritage Centre (Taunton) — order/view the original Archdeaconry of Taunton act book "Book 3," p.38 (Richard Hull's full manuscript will) — the printed 1912 Fry calendar's index does not include this entry.
• Access Robert Charles Anderson's "Great Migration" series (likely the 1634–1635 immigrants volume, AmericanAncestors.org — library/paywalled) for the authoritative modern treatment of Rev. Joseph Hull's marriages.
• Verify the claimed 13 March 1633 marriage of Joseph Hull to "Agnes Hunt" at Wells St. Cuthbert, Somerset against a primary parish register — currently resting on one unverified blog citation.
• TNA document order or Bucks Record Office visit for C 5/405/103 (Jennings v Goodspeed, 1649, Stoke Mandeville) — would definitively confirm this involves the cousin Robert (bapt. 1587), not our Robert (bapt. 1578), fully resolving the residual Agnes/Alice ambiguity.
• Consider a direct outreach to the Hull Family Association (members-only sourcing per their errors page) for their full documented reconstruction of Rev. Joseph Hull's marriages.