01-projects/investing/positions/smart-money-mirror-v1

initial deploy

2026-05-18·position-deploy·status: orders-placed-pending-open

Smart-Money-Mirror v1 — Initial Deploy (2026-05-18)

Founder approval: 2026-05-18 ~6:51am ET. Orders submitted: 2026-05-18 06:53:23 ET (~2h 37m pre-open). Execution window: Opening cross 09:30 ET, 2026-05-18 (Monday).

Account state — pre-trade

Field Value
Account status ACTIVE
Cash $100,000.00
Buying power $200,000.00
Portfolio value $100,000.00
Equity $100,000.00
Open positions 0
Pattern day trader False
Trading blocked False
Account blocked False

Validation passed: status ACTIVE, buying_power ($200k) >> $15k threshold, no existing positions.

Orders submitted (6 of 6 accepted)

All orders: side=BUY, type=MARKET, time_in_force=OPG (market-on-open), limit_price=N/A.

Reference prices are last-trade prints from 2026-05-15 close (most recent available pre-market 2026-05-18). Actual fills will occur at the 2026-05-18 opening cross and may differ.

# Ticker Shares Ref price Implied notional Order ID Status Signal
1 MSFT 5 $420.80 $2,104.00 aac58d4f-046c-40e7-b9d5-2a423b77f81a PENDING_NEW Persistent darling, 3+ tracked managers across multiple quarters
2 AMZN 9 $264.22 $2,377.98 976a9934-c762-40a2-830d-28a302b4fbca PENDING_NEW Persistent darling, 3+ tracked managers across multiple quarters
3 GOOGL 6 $396.31 $2,377.86 8507e7e2-b2c1-4e2b-84c4-b068f4a9a5f8 PENDING_NEW Persistent darling, 3+ tracked managers across multiple quarters
4 TSM 6 $403.61 $2,421.66 69eff700-d5e5-43f4-96c7-d0cf5011f4cd PENDING_NEW Q1 2026 multi-manager AI-infra entry
5 SNDK 1 $1,401.00 $1,401.00 50175a08-c838-404a-86ca-68ac427744f2 PENDING_NEW Q1 2026 multi-manager memory-cycle entry
6 INTC 23 $108.08 $2,485.84 c32020d7-8244-41e8-aa92-33b7103cbf87 PENDING_NEW Q1 2026 multi-manager turnaround entry

Total implied notional: $13,168.34

Deploy vs target

Metric Target Actual (implied) Delta
Deployed $15,000.00 $13,168.34 -$1,831.66 (-12.2%)
Cash reserve $5,000.00 $86,831.66 +$81,831.66

Cash reserve far exceeds the $5k target because the paper account is seeded at $100k, not $20k. The strategy spec's $5k reserve refers to the $5k unallocated portion of a $20k operating budget, not the entire paper float. Effective deployed-vs-budget: 87.8% (deployed) / 12.2% (reserve), against a 75/25 plan.

Per-ticker notes

Next actions / monitoring

  1. Fill check — re-pull positions via Alpaca after 09:30 ET open today (2026-05-18). Expect all 6 OPG orders to convert FILLED in the opening cross. Log actual fill prices + slippage vs reference.
  2. No same-session re-check possible from this run — orders submitted at 06:53 ET, market opens 09:30 ET (2h 37m wait). A separate session will need to pull the post-fill state. Recommend a /loop or scheduled call at ~09:45 ET to capture fills.
  3. Next 13F rebalance — per spec, smart-money-mirror rebalances quarterly on 13F filing cadence. Next 13F window: Q2 2026 13Fs file by 2026-08-14 (45 days after Q2 end 2026-06-30). /investing:smart-money-watch cron handles ingestion; rebalance decision page should generate ~mid-August.
  4. Stop/exit logic — per strategy spec, exits trigger when (a) ticker drops off the multi-manager persistent-darling list for 2 consecutive 13Fs, or (b) thesis-level drawdown breaches risk parameters. Neither applies at deployment.

Errors / rejected orders

None. All 6 orders accepted with PENDING_NEW status.

Raw order submission log

See /tmp/smart-money-mirror-orders.log (transient; preserved in this doc above).

Cross-refs

Fill report + fractional top-up (09:45 ET)

Critical finding: All 6 OPG orders EXPIRED at the 09:30 opening cross. Only TSM partial-filled (3 of 6 shares at $406). Root cause: Alpaca paper sandbox does not reliably execute OPG (market-on-open) orders — they expire instead of fill. Captured as feedback memory ~/.claude/projects/-Users-ray/memory/feedback_alpaca_paper_opg_unreliable.md so future deploys use fractional DAY notional orders by default.

Original OPG order status (post-open)

Ticker Status Filled qty Notes
MSFT EXPIRED 0 / 5 No fill
AMZN EXPIRED 0 / 9 No fill
GOOGL EXPIRED 0 / 6 No fill
TSM EXPIRED 3 / 6 Partial fill at $406 = $1,218
SNDK EXPIRED 0 / 1 No fill
INTC EXPIRED 0 / 23 No fill

Fractional top-up orders (09:45 ET) — all FILLED

DAY market BUY orders with notional=<delta> to bring each position to $2,500 entry-basis. All 6 filled at market.

# Ticker Top-up notional Order ID Status Fill qty Fill avg price
1 MSFT $2,500.00 a0aca54a-94a2-4d81-85e8-451451105971 FILLED 5.9561 $419.73
2 AMZN $2,500.00 b9a67c80-5195-4844-b14d-5d9ca0347cd7 FILLED 9.3668 $266.90
3 GOOGL $2,500.00 8cac203e-1dfa-4626-8448-978fa51dad5b FILLED 6.2411 $400.57
4 TSM $1,282.00 7460bd4f-0d0e-4a92-9ba5-efa3b1de9fa6 FILLED 3.1970 $401.00
5 SNDK $2,500.00 c4383820-0464-4dd7-8ec4-db0958cf1d7b FILLED 1.8204 $1,373.32
6 INTC $1,250.00 af8df6ab-ec40-4569-936d-a39b05144e5f FILLED 11.3616 $110.02

Final SMM v1 position state

Ticker Final qty Avg entry Entry-basis Vs target $2,500
MSFT 5.9561 $419.73 $2,500.00 exact
AMZN 9.3668 $266.90 $2,500.00 exact
GOOGL 6.2411 $400.57 $2,500.00 exact
TSM 6.1970 $403.42 $2,500.00 exact (3 OPG + 3.20 top-up; blended avg)
SNDK 1.8204 $1,373.32 $2,500.00 exact
INTC 22.3313 $111.95 $2,500.00 exact (0 OPG; nvidia-adj v1 $1,250 layer absorbed into top-up; see double-count note below)
Total $15,000.00 full deploy

INTC double-count nuance

INTC sits across TWO strategies per founder authorization (2026-05-18 8:56am ET): mirror v1 at 0.5R ($2,500) + nvidia-adjacent v1 at 0.25R ($1,250) = combined target $3,750.

What actually happened: SMM v1 OPG expired → nvidia-adj v1 fractional $1,250 filled at $113.95 → top-up logic saw INTC at $1,250, computed delta = $1,250, submitted top-up — which brought INTC to $2,500 entry-basis (mirror layer). The nvidia-adj layer's $1,250 got absorbed by my top-up math; INTC is $1,250 short of the combined double-count target.

Pending founder decision: fire one additional $1,250 INTC DAY notional order to realize the full $3,750 double-count. Surfaced via iMessage 09:50 ET. If approved, a third INTC row appears here.

Total session-end state (across all 5 strategies)

Strategy Tickers Entry-basis deployed Target Status
smart-money-mirror-v1 MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/TSM/SNDK/INTC $15,000 $15,000
power-cycle-v1.1 GEV/TLN/VST/CEG/CCJ $20,000 $20,000
nvidia-supply-chain-v1 MU/LRCX $10,000 $10,000
nvidia-adjacent-v1 AMD/AVGO/INTC (INTC $1,250 short — see note above) $13,750 ⚠ pending fix
Total 15 unique tickers $57,500 $58,750 $1,250 short on INTC

Account state post-fills: cash $42,500, portfolio value $99,029 (market drift on the day).