Candidates — pre-decision research
Tickers / vehicles being researched against a documented thesis but not yet held.
Open candidates
Cross-reference: [[../theses/2026-05-12-innermost-loop-ai-infrastructure]]
| Ticker | Thesis | Layer | First flagged | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | innermost-loop | Power | 2026-05-12 | research |
| GEV | innermost-loop | Power | 2026-05-12 | research |
| OKLO | innermost-loop | Power | 2026-05-12 | research |
| FLNC | innermost-loop | Power | 2026-05-12 | research |
| BE | innermost-loop | Power | 2026-05-12 | research (extended; sized small or skipped) |
| NVDA | innermost-loop | Chips | 2026-05-12 | research |
| AVGO | innermost-loop | Chips | 2026-05-12 | research |
| Anthropic secondary | innermost-loop | Frontier labs | 2026-05-12 | research (requires accreditation + private-market access) |
Disqualified candidates (researched and rejected)
| Ticker | Thesis attempted | Disqualifying factors | Source diligence | Date rejected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRBS (Cerebras) | innermost-loop / Chips | (1) Customer concentration: 86% Abu Dhabi · (2) Upside-down cap table: OpenAI gets $5.2B equity for $334 · (3) Inverse hardware-to-SaaS margin pivot (cloud GM 30% vs hardware 43%) · (4) Material weakness in revenue-recognition controls | [[06-reference/2026-05-12-mostlymetrics-cerebras-ipo-s1-breakdown]] | 2026-05-12 |
Workflow
- Candidate flagged from a thesis or external source → added here
- Founder picks ones to research deeper → per-candidate file at
candidates/<ticker-or-name>.mdwith current state, recent earnings, position-sizing recommendation - When ready to deploy → migrate to
positions/+ spawn HQ/decisions/page - If candidate is rejected → move it to the "Disqualified candidates" table above with specific disqualifying factors + source-diligence link