01-projects/investing/candidates

README

2026-05-12·candidate-index·status: open

Candidates — pre-decision research

Tickers / vehicles being researched against a documented thesis but not yet held.

Open candidates

Cross-reference: [[../theses/2026-05-12-innermost-loop-ai-infrastructure]]

Ticker Thesis Layer First flagged Status
TLN innermost-loop Power 2026-05-12 research
GEV innermost-loop Power 2026-05-12 research
OKLO innermost-loop Power 2026-05-12 research
FLNC innermost-loop Power 2026-05-12 research
BE innermost-loop Power 2026-05-12 research (extended; sized small or skipped)
NVDA innermost-loop Chips 2026-05-12 research
AVGO innermost-loop Chips 2026-05-12 research
Anthropic secondary innermost-loop Frontier labs 2026-05-12 research (requires accreditation + private-market access)

Disqualified candidates (researched and rejected)

Ticker Thesis attempted Disqualifying factors Source diligence Date rejected
CRBS (Cerebras) innermost-loop / Chips (1) Customer concentration: 86% Abu Dhabi · (2) Upside-down cap table: OpenAI gets $5.2B equity for $334 · (3) Inverse hardware-to-SaaS margin pivot (cloud GM 30% vs hardware 43%) · (4) Material weakness in revenue-recognition controls [[06-reference/2026-05-12-mostlymetrics-cerebras-ipo-s1-breakdown]] 2026-05-12

Workflow

  1. Candidate flagged from a thesis or external source → added here
  2. Founder picks ones to research deeper → per-candidate file at candidates/<ticker-or-name>.md with current state, recent earnings, position-sizing recommendation
  3. When ready to deploy → migrate to positions/ + spawn HQ /decisions/ page
  4. If candidate is rejected → move it to the "Disqualified candidates" table above with specific disqualifying factors + source-diligence link