Smart-Money Aggregate - 2-Year Backfill Summary

Initial 2-year backfill executed 2026-05-17 as part of the /investing:smart-money-watch v0 scaffold + first run. Quarter window: 2024 Q2 through 2026 Q1 (the 8 most recently filed quarters as of run date). This window is one quarter beyond the spec's nominal 2023-Q4 to 2025-Q3 ask because Q1 2026 filings landed by 2026-05-15 and the script naturally picks the 8 most-recent.

Coverage: 7 of 8 tracked managers successfully backfilled with full 8-quarter trend data. 1 manager (Pabrai) returned only legacy 2010-2011 filings via the EDGAR atom feed - the helper script needs a second-pass to handle Pabrai's filing-entity churn. Logged as a known gap; not blocking.

Tracked manager set + status

Multi-manager rotations (>=2 managers same direction, same quarter)

Collective additions (>=2 managers added or significantly increased same quarter)

Collective trims/exits (>=2 managers exited or significantly decreased same quarter)

Persistent smart-money darlings (top-10 in >=3 managers, >=2 quarters)

New 2+ manager top-10 signals from ARK addition (2026-05-18)

RDCO thesis exposure scorecard

Smart-money exposure per RDCO v1 thesis bucket. Counts unique issuers per thesis across all 8 managers + all 8 quarters. (Bumped from 7/7 to 8/8 with the 2026-05-18 addition of ARK Investment Management.)

Per-thesis manager-by-manager exposure

memory:

• appaloosa-tepper: MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC
• druckenmiller-duquesne: Seagate Technology Hldngs Pl

power:

• appaloosa-tepper: VISTRA CORP
• druckenmiller-duquesne: Vistra Corp
• tiger-global: GE VERNOVA INC

longevity:

• druckenmiller-duquesne: Insmed Inc, Natera Inc
• tiger-global: ELI LILLY & CO
• ark: CRISPR Therapeutics AG (top-10 8/8 quarters), Tempus AI Inc (top-10 5/8 quarters)

ai-infra-chips:

• appaloosa-tepper: ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC, NVIDIA CORPORATION, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MFG LTD
• druckenmiller-duquesne: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac, Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Ltd
• tiger-global: BROADCOM INC, NVIDIA CORPORATION, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MFG LTD
• ark: Advanced Micro Devices Inc (#2 position 2026Q1, 4.29% AUM), Teradyne Inc (#9-#10 entry 2025Q4)

elon-verse:

• ark: Tesla Inc (#1 position 8/8 quarters, 7-11% AUM)

hyperscalers:

• appaloosa-tepper: ALPHABET INC, AMAZON COM INC, META PLATFORMS INC, MICROSOFT CORP
• berkshire-hathaway: ALPHABET INC
• druckenmiller-duquesne: Amazon Com Inc, Microsoft Corp
• gardner-russo-quinn: Alphabet Inc Cl C
• marathon-asset-llp: Alphabet Inc - Class A, Alphabet Inc. - Class A, Alphabet Inc. - Class C, Amazon.com Inc
• tiger-global: ALPHABET INC, AMAZON COM INC, META PLATFORMS INC, MICROSOFT CORP
• ark: Alphabet Inc (built from 0 to 1.61% AUM over 2025Q3-2026Q1, NOT in top-10)

Idea-generation candidates

Tickers held in top-10 across multiple managers but NOT (yet) classified into an RDCO thesis bucket. These are the strongest smart-money signal lines outside our existing surface area.

Known gaps + caveats

• Pabrai (CIK 0001173334): backfill returned only 2010-2011 filings. Mohnish Pabrai files under multiple entity names ('Mohnish Pabrai', 'Dalal Street LLC', 'The Pabrai Investment Funds'); the atom-feed pull for Pabrai's primary CIK is sparse. Next-session fix: add multi-entity CIK lookup for Pabrai or fall back to Dataroma scrape (paid-feed adjacent).
• Marathon LLP (CIK 0001040592): filings stopped in 2021. The legendary UK 'Capital Returns' capital-cycle firm appears to have withdrawn from 13F filing (likely because their US-listed-equity AUM dropped below the $100M threshold, or they restructured the US entity). Implication: Marathon-style capital-cycle reads via 13F are no longer possible. Sub the source with primary-source reads of Marathon's 'Global Investment Review' published commentary instead.
• Marathon LP (CIK 0001279913): included as a defensive backstop but the holdings (12-17 names, $50-95B notional) suggest this is the NY credit-focused Marathon Asset Management, NOT the UK capital-cycle firm. Holdings reads need to discount accordingly.
• Berkshire 2025-Q2: only 4 positions returned. This is likely a 13F-HR/A amendment that re-stated only the changed positions; the full Q2 2025 holdings live under a separate 13F-HR accession not captured by the strict period-match logic. Next-session fix: when a quarter returns <50% of typical position count, also pull adjacent 13F-HR filings filed within ~30 days.
• Value units vary by filer. Detected per-manager via detect_unit() heuristic on top-10 implied share prices. Verified manually: Duquesne/Berkshire/Tiger/Russo/Akre/Appaloosa parse correctly. If a future manager's unit gets misclassified, the persistent-top dollar values will be off by 1000x.
• CUSIP-to-ticker mapping NOT built. All references in this brief use the issuer-name string as it appears in the 13F XML. Future runs should build a cached CUSIP-to-ticker table for cleaner cross-manager joins and direct linkage to Alpaca price bars.
• Sector / industry classification NOT built. Skill spec called out 'sector concentration if derivable from ticker -> sector mapping' - we skipped this for backfill. Build incrementally as ticker mapping populates.

Next steps

1. Wire /investing:smart-money-watch into the scheduled-jobs cron (60d after each quarter end - next trigger ~2026-08-29 for 2026-Q2).
2. Fix the Pabrai multi-entity lookup as the first follow-up.
3. Build the CUSIP-to-ticker cache after the first cron run to enable cleaner aggregation.
4. Re-process Berkshire 2025-Q2 with the amendment-aware filing match.
5. Cross-reference findings here against the in-flight memory/power/space/longevity/elon-verse theses being built in theses/ - any divergence between our thesis direction and the multi-manager smart-money direction is a phase-marker signal.

Sources

SEC EDGAR 13F-HR filings, pulled via ~/.claude/scripts/edgar-13f.py backfill <cik> --quarters 8 on 2026-05-17.

Per-manager 2-year trend briefs:

• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/druckenmiller-duquesne/2yr-trend-backfill.md]] - Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller)
• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/berkshire-hathaway/2yr-trend-backfill.md]] - Berkshire Hathaway
• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/tiger-global/2yr-trend-backfill.md]] - Tiger Global Management
• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/appaloosa-tepper/2yr-trend-backfill.md]] - Appaloosa LP (Tepper)
• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/gardner-russo-quinn/2yr-trend-backfill.md]] - Gardner Russo & Quinn (Tom Russo)
• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/akre-capital/2yr-trend-backfill.md]] - Akre Capital Management
• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/marathon-asset-llp/2yr-trend-backfill.md]] - Marathon Asset Management LLP (UK capital-cycle)
• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/ark-trend-2yr.md]] - ARK Investment Management LLC (Cathie Wood) - added 2026-05-18
• [[01-projects/investing/anchors/smart-money/pabrai/2yr-trend-backfill.md]] - Pabrai Investments (Mohnish Pabrai)

Related

• [[.claude/skills/investing-smart-money-watch/SKILL.md]] - SOP for the quarterly cron
• [[01-projects/investing/README.md]] - v2 project framing
• [[01-projects/investing/plugin/skills/smart-money-watch/SKILL.md]] - canonical SKILL.md authoring location