/decisions · 2026-05-18 · investing · smart-money-mirror-v1
Mirror top-N positions across our 7 tracked managers using deterministic selection rules. Initial $15k: MSFT / AMZN / GOOGL / TSM at 0.5R each (persistent darlings, top-10 in 3+ managers for 2+ quarters) + SNDK / INTC at 0.5R each (2026 Q1 multi-manager entries). $5k cash reserve for mid-Aug 2026 Q2 13F window. NO price-based exits. Quarterly rebalance on 13F filings; only mechanical exit is 2+ managers exiting same name same quarter. Honest framing: we're not out-thinking Druckenmiller, we're copying him with a 45-90 day disclosure lag — and the lag is the cost of access.
The /investing:smart-money-watch skill is already built. The 2026-05-17 aggregate 2-year backfill is on disk. The selection rules are deterministic and reduce to ~6 trades on day one. This deploys NOW because the prerequisite infra is shipped — we don't need to wait for the backtest harness to mature for memory v1.1 to ship the smart-money mirror.
The basket is also intentionally simple. The whole point of mirror trading is that we're not adding alpha — we're following allocators who already do, with discipline. Adding complexity to "improve" the strategy would defeat its purpose.
The bull-case argument for v1: 13F-arbitrage academic literature (Cohen/Polk/Silli 2010, Wermers 2000) shows equal-weighted top-N holdings of skilled active managers can beat passive benchmarks net of lag. Our 7-manager curation is genuinely positive-sum (Druckenmiller, Berkshire, Russo, Akre, Tepper, Tiger Global, Marathon — all public track records, all skill-based selection). The 6-name basket is concentrated enough to capture the signal but diversified enough that single-manager error costs <17%. The "no price exit" rule pairs with quarterly rebalance to ride the holding period long enough that the disclosure lag doesn't dominate. SNDK + INTC overlap with memory thesis = independent confirmation from two skill axes.
The revision risk: persistent-darling slice is 100% mega-cap tech (MSFT / AMZN / GOOGL / TSM). Concentrated factor exposure to AI-infra demand. If that single factor breaks, the strategy breaks. The 45-90 day disclosure lag could be material on fast rotations — by mid-Aug we'd see 2026 Q2 holdings, but managers may have already trimmed by then. Top-10-by-dollar is a coarse proxy (Berkshire's #1 AAPL has been heavily trimmed and we'd still see it #1). And SNDK + INTC are fresh 2026 Q1 entries — could reverse next quarter.
The picks: APPROVE locks in the 6-name $15k initial deploy with $5k reserve. REVISE walks back specific parameters (drop a name, change the persistent-darling sizing, narrow the basket). ARCHIVE concedes mirror trading is the wrong shape for our setup (e.g., founder prefers a thesis-first stack-only approach). DEFER waits for 2026 Q2 13F confirmation before deploying.
| Slice | Definition | Names | Sizing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Persistent darlings | Top-10 in 3+ managers AND held 2+ consecutive quarters | MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, TSM | 0.5R each = $10k |
| Recent multi-manager additions | 2+ managers add or significantly increase same quarter, within last 2 quarters | SNDK (Druck + Tepper Q1 26), INTC (Druck + Tiger Q1 26) | 0.5R each = $5k |
| Cash reserve | Held back for next 13F window (2026 Q2 mid-Aug) | — | $5k |
| Ticker | Role | Tranche 1 | Max v1 | Signal source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Persistent darling | 0.5R ($2,500) | 1R | Top-10 in 3 managers (Tepper, Druckenmiller, Tiger) |
| AMZN | Persistent darling | 0.5R ($2,500) | 1R | Top-10 in 3 managers (Tepper, Druckenmiller, Tiger) |
| GOOGL | Persistent darling | 0.5R ($2,500) | 1R | Top-10 in 3 managers (Tepper, Berkshire, Tiger) |
| TSM | Persistent darling | 0.5R ($2,500) | 1R | Top-10 in 3 managers (Tepper, Druckenmiller, Tiger) |
| SNDK | Q1 26 multi-manager entry | 0.5R ($2,500) | 1R | New positions by Druckenmiller + Tepper |
| INTC | Q1 26 multi-manager entry | 0.5R ($2,500) | 1R | New positions by Druckenmiller + Tiger Global |
Total: 3.0R = $15,000 initial deploy + $5,000 cash reserve = $20k strategy notional.
| Trigger | Action |
|---|---|
| NEW 2+ manager same-quarter addition on a name not at v1 cap | Add 0.5R (cap at 1R per name) |
| 2+ managers EXIT same name same quarter | Close that position entirely (only mechanical exit rule) |
| Persistent darling drops from 3+ managers to 2 in top-10 | Trim to 0.5R (or hold if already there) |
| Persistent darling drops to 1 manager | Close position entirely |
| Existing position unchanged in signal | Hold; no action |
| Cash reserve allows add but no qualifying new signal | Hold cash; do not force-deploy |
| Founder kill-switch ("halt mirror" / "pause smart-money") | Immediate close all |
| Param | Value |
|---|---|
| Mode | Paper only (Alpaca paper sandbox) |
| 1R unit | $5,000 (per parent README) |
| Initial deploy | 3.0R = $15,000 (6 names × 0.5R each) |
| Cash reserve | $5,000 (1.0R, for 2026 Q2 13F window mid-Aug) |
| Strategy notional cap | $20,000 (founder-greenlit) |
| Max per name in v1 | 1R ($5,000) |
| Per-trade stop | None (signal-stop, not price-stop) |
| Profit trims | None — only multi-manager exits trigger sells |
| Rebalance cadence | Quarterly, ~mid-Feb / mid-May / mid-Aug / mid-Nov (13F filing windows) |
| Quarterly review owner | Ray drafts post-13F-window; founder approves batch; Ray executes |
| Kill switch | Founder channel — "halt mirror" / "pause smart-money" = close all |
| Audit log location | ~/rdco-vault/01-projects/investing/positions/smart-money-mirror-v1/ |
Ray fires initial 3R tranche (MSFT 0.5R + AMZN 0.5R + GOOGL 0.5R + TSM 0.5R + SNDK 0.5R + INTC 0.5R = $15k paper) into Alpaca. Logs to positions/smart-money-mirror-v1/. $5k cash reserve held for 2026 Q2 13F window (~mid-Aug). Use the field for any deploy notes.
v1 is close but a parameter needs adjusting (e.g. drop INTC because overlap with memory v1.1, smaller persistent darling sizing, add a name from idea-generation candidates). Name what; Ray re-files v1.1.
Revise + sendIf mirror trading is the wrong shape for the setup (e.g., founder prefers thesis-stack-only or wants to wait for backtest infra). Ray files as status: archived-pre-deploy with reason. No paper trade.
Hold for 2026 Q2 13F window (~mid-Aug 2026) to confirm SNDK + INTC positions held/added by tracked managers before deploying. Or wait for a named catalyst.
Defer + send